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Why do people deny the existence of housing bubbles?


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2005 Jul 16, 10:29am   12,203 views  83 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

Some people deny that housing bubbles exist. Some even suggest that the recent appreciation is sustainable.

Are the consequences too scary to fathom? Are they just blinded by greed and fear? Do they even have the right information?

#housing

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16   Peter P   2005 Jul 16, 11:53am  

BTW, Marina, % over asking is not necessarily representative because realtors(tm) lower prices to induce bidding wars.

Asking 1M for that 1425sf place in Marina? Give me a break. That is about $700/sf. Even SOMA lofts cost that much. This is Marinara we are talking about!

Please do not assume that renters always rant. If we are convinced that prices will not crash we would have bought already.

17   Peter P   2005 Jul 16, 11:55am  

I think downtown Tokyo is pretty much the definition of prime RE. Ditto Hong Kong, ditto Sidney, ditto London…

What is more "prime" than Tokyo. During the Japan RE boom the land of the Imperial Palace was thought to be worth more than the entire California. (Definitely more prime than Marina)

18   Peter P   2005 Jul 16, 11:59am  

Jack, I created this post. :)

So now I get to see...

19   Peter P   2005 Jul 16, 12:05pm  

Astrid, my parents moved from england we just last year sold out home.
Bought: 37k in 1982
Sold : 350k in 2004
These numbers are in U.K. pounds
How can RE not be a sure bet. Anywhere you live….( over the long term)

onpr, let's say that RE is a good long term bet if you do not stretch to play. :)

But what is long term anyway? I would say at least 10-15 years.

20   Peter P   2005 Jul 16, 12:07pm  

SactoQt, is it very hot in Sacramento today? It is too hot for golf here. :)

21   Peter P   2005 Jul 16, 12:09pm  

Did you look yet?

They all have distinct IP addresses. It is not very conclusive because one can always use another computer elsewhere.

22   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 12:09pm  

At least 110°. Please tell my you're not implying my brain is fried?

23   Peter P   2005 Jul 16, 12:11pm  

At least 110°. Please tell my you’re not implying my brain is fried?

Oh no. Just curious. I may consider moving to Sacramento in the future. (I go there about once a month, less frequent in the summer)

24   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 12:12pm  

I like this area a lot actually, but the summer's can be brutal sometimes.

25   Peter P   2005 Jul 16, 12:18pm  

Jack, honestly, I think Marinara is a different person. His hostility index is down, no?

26   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 12:19pm  

Ok Jack. You're weird.

27   Peter P   2005 Jul 16, 12:19pm  

Call me weird, but I like the heat..

And you live where? North Bay?

28   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 12:19pm  

:D

29   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 12:26pm  

I hear BA has later summer's than here. A friend said that Sept. Oct. can be pretty hot out your way.

30   Peter P   2005 Jul 16, 12:31pm  

"Dang Marinara — 73 posts in 2 hours, you are a moooooover and a shaker"

Traffic is approaching that of Ben Jone's site... for now. :)

31   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 12:31pm  

Ewe know that Marinara.

32   Peter P   2005 Jul 16, 12:33pm  

“The blog….Where people really DO care about YOU!”

Here, everybody cares about everybody. The choice of language is another issue though. ;)

(On Ben's blog, even I was called a troll once because someone misread my comments.)

33   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 12:34pm  

(Would you like to be called “Ms. SAUCE”, Astrid? Hmmmmmmmmm?)

Now Jack. That's just uncalled for.

34   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 12:42pm  

I think we've all run into Marinara type people in our personal lives, and it's hard not to wish people like that get burned when there is a reckoning. But, by and large, the people out there buying homes these last couple of years are just being taken advantage of by unscrupulous lenders pushing NAAVLP's, and no one wishes them HARM. I am very uncomfortable with the idea of a massive crash that could really hurt the economy. If I could wish for anything it would be a correction that forces lenders to tighten their standards so that people who don't know what they are doing don't get in over their heads anymore.

35   Peter P   2005 Jul 16, 12:43pm  

Ahh, life as a homeowner with 300K in liquid assets, and a nice SFH in The Marina is so wonderful.

You are not going get us jealous. You may try but you will fail.

I admire Soros/Buffett and am perheps jealous of someone who owns a Gulfstream G550. From your comments, I guess that you still fly commercial. Work at it. :)

36   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 12:44pm  

Rented Lol.

37   Peter P   2005 Jul 16, 12:45pm  

You were not directing the language worries at me were you?

Not at all. Language is actually a non-issue. We do need some f???-words flying around occasionally or this will be too PG-13, right?

38   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 12:45pm  

Jack
It's nice to know you're not a fixer-upper.

39   Peter P   2005 Jul 16, 12:49pm  

Actually though Peter, I NEVER stop being amazed at your INCREDIBLY unshakable patience. Are you that way all the time? or is it something you developed professionally, and you are just faking it!

What do you expect me to do? I lose patience only when I am waiting for food.

40   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 12:52pm  

Peter P Says:

What do you expect me to do? I lose patience only when I am waiting for food.

You sound just like my 19 month old son. Come to think of it, so does Marinara, but my son is more articulate.

41   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 12:53pm  

Not more articulate than you Peter. ;)

42   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 1:16pm  

Never, Never feed the trolls. Baiting ok.

43   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 1:17pm  

If you feed them, they keep coming back.

44   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 1:20pm  

Blah Blah Blah, Yadda Yadda Yadda. Nothing new to say...
Uh Oh. I'm giving negative attention. Bad QT. I'm feeding the beast.

45   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 1:21pm  

Jack

In some way's I'm always on your side. I certainly respect you.

46   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 1:40pm  

I didn't know it was going to be fairy tale night on the blog. I wish I had known, I could've asked HARM for pointers and everything. Damn.

47   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 1:46pm  

I NEVER NEVER believe braggarts. If Marinara is God's gift at 28, why's he here with all us "losers" on a Saturday night. Where are all the women panting to get their hands on his "prime real estate?"

48   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 1:49pm  

And no, no matter what answer Marinara gives to that question, I won't buy it either. No credibility.

49   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 1:57pm  

I guess he'll have to rent a good night's sleep.

50   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 2:08pm  

Night Astrid

Fun having you along tonight.

51   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 2:09pm  

I thought ALWAYS ON TRANSMIT was TWIT.

52   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 2:11pm  

Jack
Only one beer. You're probably a couple of six packs behind Marinara. Have I been feeding the Trolls? All that negative attention, I know. I should know better.

53   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 2:15pm  

Jack
I hear ya. Fog obscures everything. Even one's thinking apparently.

54   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 2:23pm  

AC on all day. Still hotter than hades.

You know, I never thought I'd say this. But I'm really looking forward to Surfer-X's response to tonights blog. It should be really interesting.

55   SQT15   2005 Jul 16, 2:24pm  

Astrid was right, things have slowed down a bit. Did TWIT check out too?

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