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Bubblehead Roll Call


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2007 Feb 26, 6:56am   26,540 views  251 comments

by Randy H   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Fellow "Bubbleheads", let this thread be a periodic update on your own personal position in this Great Bubble cycle.

No shame, no insults. I'll delete any comments that mock or ridicule anyone else for decisions they've made. i.e., No piling anyone willing to admit they've bought, for whatever reason. Pilers oners know who they are.

I'll start things off:

---

Randy H and extended family:

In 2007 we continue to rent, closing in on the start of the third year of renting after over a decade of happy home ownership. We are preparing to rent for another year or longer, but continue to try our best to keep our situation flexible. Renting is an enormous pain in the ass given our situation. We're prepared to pay a reasonably hefty premium for a house: Wheel chair ramps for elderly parents don't easily install in rented McMansions. But these prices are nowhere near a "reasonably hefty premium" yet.

I'm still unsure of how long the correction will take. I'm still sure it is underway. I'm vindicated in my sticky price calls. I'm also sad I was right. I occasionally have wonderful waking dreams in which the remainder of the correction occurs in a single day, and I'm suddenly BBQing in the back yard, all my Patrick.net friends over drinking beer and consuming various charred flesh, surfer-x demonstrating his cannon ball dive into the pool ... oh wait, that's another dream.

Anyway, we're still renting, and still pissed off about it. And it rains too damned much in prime Marin.

---Randy H

#bubbles

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25   Peter P   2007 Feb 26, 8:41am  

Who grooms a CAT?!?……and is that even possible, without a transfusion to replace the blood.

Huh?

Our cats require grooming at least once every few months. Otherwise, the hair will get too long and/or tangled.

26   e   2007 Feb 26, 8:50am  

Astrid - rasing kids in BA expensive - tell me about it - especially when there are parents that are obviously pulling in a lot more money spending left right and center on everything their kid could possibly want to do - ballet classes, singing classes, acting classes, horse riding, ice skating, gymnastics all at once!

I was in Stanford Mall and Valley Fair Mall recently, and it's really come to me that people here have a lot of money. And that I'm not one of them.

Yeah yeah, we always joke around here that people are buying their hummers using MEW and HELOCs - but is that really so true? It seems to me that a lot of the MEW/HELOC crowd here are either PreProp13ers using it for groceries, or fools getting American brand SUVs.

I don't think the MEW/HELOC crowd are getting the S550's I keep seeing, or the 2 BMW Z8's I saw one day at Stanford Mall (each one was about $128k new).

I also think the median income is skewed lower via the PreProp13ers, as well as the class of people who have no chance of buying (landscapers, etc).

$200k really is the new $100k around here. I really need to find a Pre-IPO company to join.

How depressing.

27   sfbubblebuyer   2007 Feb 26, 8:57am  

Having been in a few pre IPOs... you can't count on them to buy you a house. You can just be pleasantly suprised if they do.

I'm kicking myself for turning Google down before they'd launched. "No way can you beat AltaVista for searches!"

28   cb   2007 Feb 26, 9:03am  

Astrid - rasing kids in BA expensive - tell me about it - especially when there are parents that are obviously pulling in a lot more money spending left right and center on everything their kid could possibly want to do - ballet classes, singing classes, acting classes, horse riding, ice skating, gymnastics all at once!

Kids lessons are big businesses, 2 of my friends in Canada said their boys have to go to skating school, they were both on the high school hockey team, I asked them whatever happened to letting your kids skate in the neighborhood rink and they said, times are different now, how weird.

I don’t think the MEW/HELOC crowd are getting the S550’s I keep seeing, or the 2 BMW Z8’s I saw one day at Stanford Mall (each one was about $128k new).

When the Z8 first came out, it had a 40K markup, I remember in the SF car show they kept it behind the ropes on the platter, and I told my wife that I can probably sit in one because there is one in our work, when the Z-8 drives up the garage, it will set off all the other car's alarms.

29   Peter P   2007 Feb 26, 9:10am  

I don’t think the MEW/HELOC crowd are getting the S550’s I keep seeing, or the 2 BMW Z8’s I saw one day at Stanford Mall (each one was about $128k new).

But the Bay Area does not seem to have many RRs. I wonder why. S550's are probably considered low-class in Asia.

30   astrid   2007 Feb 26, 9:17am  

Rolles Royces are chauffeur cars. They're not very attractive or practical unless you have a chauffeur or two.

31   Peter P   2007 Feb 26, 9:20am  

Rolles Royces are chauffeur cars. They’re not very attractive or practical unless you have a chauffeur or two.

I also wonder why the rich people in the Bay Area do not hire chauffeurs. Driving can be quite dangerous. (Think potential vehicular manslaughter charges and MEGA civil suits).

32   Peter P   2007 Feb 26, 9:21am  

Girlfriend and I bought a 180 square foot studio on the Upper West in 2004 for what it would take to rent one.

Did you mean 1800 sqft?

33   astrid   2007 Feb 26, 9:23am  

Venture capital/IPO $ in BA has a highly inflationary effect on BA housing. It's kind of like living in 1650 Spain. All that cash doesn't increase living standards, it just makes the previously middle class feel poor.

34   astrid   2007 Feb 26, 9:24am  

180 sq ft studio is not unheard of.

35   e   2007 Feb 26, 9:24am  

I also wonder why the rich people in the Bay Area do not hire chauffeurs. Driving can be quite dangerous. (Think potential vehicular manslaughter charges and MEGA civil suits).

Not just the Bay Area - but speaking of civil suits why was Brandy driving herself? Why do Paris/Britney/etc drive themselves?

36   Peter P   2007 Feb 26, 9:28am  

Not just the Bay Area - but speaking of civil suits why was Brandy driving herself? Why do Paris/Britney/etc drive themselves?

No idea. The moment I can reasonably afford a chauffeur, I will get one.

37   Peter P   2007 Feb 26, 9:28am  

180 sq ft studio is not unheard of.

Is an East Coast sqft the same as a California sqft?

38   astrid   2007 Feb 26, 9:32am  

I've seen a lot of Gawker pictures and I don't think Paris/Britney drives that much, especially after clubbing. But generally, chauffeurs are expensive in America, particularly good chauffeurs who are discreet and good drivers. Chauffeurs are more common in Asia because good chauffeurs are cheap relative to decent cars.

39   Peter P   2007 Feb 26, 9:34am  

Chauffeurs are more common in Asia because good chauffeurs are cheap relative to decent cars.

True. But rich people here should be able to afford even the best chauffeurs with carry permits.

40   astrid   2007 Feb 26, 9:35am  

Peter P,

As far as I know, feet does not expand as you cross the Rockies or the Mississippi. Though I've never actually seen a sub 300 sq. ft. studio or a sub 1000 sq. ft. SFH. I just read about them online.

41   e   2007 Feb 26, 9:35am  

DINK household + a dog, with income that is approaching 300k.

Is your company hiring? :)

42   SFWoman   2007 Feb 26, 9:37am  

The most climby woman I know in SF just hired a driver.

43   astrid   2007 Feb 26, 9:38am  

Chauffeurs are definitely worth the money in Mainland China. It's a complete pain trying to drive or find parking space in Shanghai.

44   surfer-x   2007 Feb 26, 9:44am  

tinyurl.com/2w9fnn

simply amazing. my personal fave is

Standard of Practice 1-3

REALTORS®, in attempting to secure a listing, shall not deliberately mislead the owner as to market value.

45   astrid   2007 Feb 26, 9:47am  

GC,

No way! If I have the money, a top end German car would definitely be the way to go. Hummers are pretty terrible vehicles all around. Shanghai drivers aren't too bad, Beijing drivers are awful.

46   Peter P   2007 Feb 26, 9:48am  

No way! If I have the money, a top end German car would definitely be the way to go. Hummers are pretty terrible vehicles all around. Shanghai drivers aren’t too bad, Beijing drivers are awful.

Does China have a well-defined legal framework for civil liabilities? Can the owners of the vehicles shield themselves from liabilities?

47   FormerAptBroker   2007 Feb 26, 10:03am  

SFWoman Says:

> The most climby woman I know in SF just hired a driver.

Does he drive the standard issue Town Car or did she step up to the Maybach 62?

Since MBZ/Maybach was a sponsor of the last B&W Ball I got to drive around in a Maybach and I decided that if I ever make a lot of money I’ll get a McLaren F1 as a daily driver and have a Maybach with a driver for when I don’t feel like driving…

48   Doug H   2007 Feb 26, 10:10am  

Peter P,

Never owned a cat.....grooming a cat sounds like a guaranteed trip to the emergency room.

49   Peter P   2007 Feb 26, 10:21am  

Never owned a cat…..grooming a cat sounds like a guaranteed trip to the emergency room.

I have even bathed a cat before. Not easy. But doable.

50   SFWoman   2007 Feb 26, 10:54am  

FAB,

I have no clue as to what her car is. A lot of people were snickering about it when I got my hair cut. She apparently got the driver because she wants to become friends with SF's newest socialite (who from what I hear is rather down to earth and not terribly impressed with the whole thing).

I was invited to a Maybach party a few years ago. I didn't know what one was, and had to ask a friend. Do they sell them like Tupperware or something?

51   sbg   2007 Feb 26, 10:55am  

I am a Lurker here for at least a year....we have been renting in the south bay for a year and a half. Prices are just too expensive in our neck of the woods. Seems like houses are still selling pretty quickly. Rent is about $2850 for 4 bd house.

52   netdance   2007 Feb 26, 10:57am  

I rent. A 3 br/2 ba run down apt in Santa Clara. Rent was recently increased by 10%, but that's still less than $1600/mo.

In 1999, it was cheaper to buy than rent. That's right. Cheaper. Not "within 20%" or "somewhat comparable". Cheaper. Pretty much all over the Bay Area. Remember?

It'll happen again. Probably at least two years away.

In the meantime, my 401k is maxed, and I put away at least 2k every month into other investments, as well as buying anything I want, and vacationing wherever I want, whenever I want.

I want to buy, but I'm willing to wait for it to get to within 20% of rent before I even consider it. But dang, all that extra money will be hard to give up, even for the "benefit of ownership" that I keep hearing about.

53   B.A.C.A.H.   2007 Feb 26, 11:05am  

We've lived in the same $h*tbox since 1989. It is a $hitbox, but it is home. There's other factors to one's quality of life besides whether or not we sleep in a $h*tbox. So, our property tax is based on 1989 purchase. We had minor damage in the 1989 earthquake. We rode it out when prices were down for the next seven years. We paid down the mortgage with some of the stock bubble money then refinanced the lower amount when the fixed rates hit bottom in 2003.

There's too much arrogance, hipness and coolness, too much swagger, in this area, not the way SJ was when I grew up here.

So my interest in a return to normalcy is for the vise to tighten till it wrenches out as many of the petty bourgeouis and gives us an overdue dose of humility. I saw some of this in the last bubble deflation in the early 1990's, but unfortunately soon after that Netscape brought on the "next big thing" in the second half of the decade, and a lot of obnoxious "beautiful people" came here for the internet bubble.

Of course there will be the handful of instant dotcom and google millionaires who can lose huge amounts of home equity and still live comfortably. Bully for them! But there's not enough of them to set the tone for region, so after we get our return to normalcy, they'll just be a background fixture like the country club set that's in every region.

But the rest of us need our values and priorities reset. The decline in real estate will help with that.

54   FormerAptBroker   2007 Feb 26, 11:14am  

Randy H. wrote:

> Fellow “Bubbleheads”, let this thread be a periodic update
> on your own personal position in this Great Bubble cycle.

It’s been almost 8 years since I became a renter when I sold my Peninsula home (that had recently doubled in value) and sold some stock (that had recently tripled in value) and moved to a (rent controlled) Presidio Heights 2br/1ba (w/ a 2 car garage that has room for all my sailboards, surfboards, skis, snowboards, bikes and other toys). I was about a year early calling the top of the stock market and about 6 years early calling the top of the real estate market, but since I put all the cash from the home and stock sale in to a Sacramento apartment (that has tripled in value) and bought another Sacramento apartment a few years later (that has doubled in value) I don’t have a lot of sellers remorse. Unlike Randy I don’t have a wife, kids (or pets) so despite the occasional comments from my parents (and friends) asking “why I don’t get married” there is not really any downside to renting (it’s actually a bonus since as I have mentioned before gold digging gals will walk the other way when they hear that I “just rent a little apartment”)…

55   hugel   2007 Feb 26, 11:23am  

I am renting for the 7th year. I could have bought 7 years ago or in 2002 during the bust but I didn't. Still regretting it like not selling those high priced IPOs.
With a newborn coming, I have never wanted to own and settle so bad. I guess there's nesting instinct in guys too. Fortunately, Mrs also see the craziness and not put too much pressure.
I hope the prices will adjust by the time the little one is three (2010). If not, I will just buy whatever I can with the funny money (jumbos, stated income, no docs, ...) with the minimum down-payment even though we have good amount of savings. If the bust happens then, we will walk away from the loan, trash our credits but still live comfortably.

56   astrid   2007 Feb 26, 12:18pm  

Closet space is very important.

57   astrid   2007 Feb 26, 12:21pm  

T.I.C.? Tenants in Common???

58   GammaRaze   2007 Feb 26, 1:02pm  

Came to this country in 1998. Moved to the bay area in 2000. Still renting.

59   skibum   2007 Feb 26, 2:27pm  

We've been renting since Jan 2006, after selling our Boston brownstone and moving back to the Bay Area. There is more or less constant pressure from the wife and both sets of parents to buy, especially now that we have a kid. However, my wife and I refuse to buy in a "top" school district with the hypercompetitive academic types (Cupertino, Saratoga, etc). We have a soft spot for Palo Alto having both gone to school here, but the school system thing is a downside. We are still tentatively looking at buying 2008 or 2009, depending on how things look aroud here by then.

60   lex   2007 Feb 26, 3:10pm  

We are renting and trying to enjoy all the positives it brings:

- being subsidized by our landlord, our rent (which includes taxes and HOA fees) is about half of what would be our mortgage payment alone
- partitipating in our landlord's Prop 13 protection - he pays less taxes, therefore we pay low rent :-)
- flexibility of a month to month contract
- excellent elementary school, no need to pay extra for a private school, no need to pay a huge mortgage just to get into good school district
- no headakes with repairs, or reconstructions
- no debt, no stretched cash flow
- kids enjoy the house like we "owned" it, they don't see the difference if we rent or own
- no worries that an eartquake would destroy my american dream
- no worries of a bubble, crash etc.

It's very convenient to rent the house right now.

We are ready to enter the market when at least one of these happens:

- prices crash 50% from their peak in 2005-06

- 70% or borrowers in Bay Area use the conventional 30-year fixed mortgages with at least 10% down, not IO ARMs with 0% down and 5% cashback

- rents in Bay Area double and catch up the morgage payments

61   sfvulture   2007 Feb 26, 3:16pm  

Renting here in SF (SOMA/South Beach specifically). Single and live well below my means. Enough cash on hand to buy on the spot when the time is right.

I've owned before. I've bought low and sold high. I've bought high and sold low. The former is a lot more fun. You only have to do the latter once -- you WILL become an informed buyer.

Renting vs buying is a trade-off as we all know. Right now, in this market (especially in SOMA/South Beach with lots of inventory on the market), renting is best, IMHO.

62   sfvulture   2007 Feb 26, 3:30pm  

OpinionsPlease, there are tons of folks out there that would love to be bored with a sense of security. ENJOY YOUR BOREDOM!

Why not take 6 mos or a year off work and enjoy sleeping in every day? Kick around, read books, volunteer, do whatever. I did it and enjoyed every minute of it.

Another suggestion, just put your head on your pillow at night and enjoy a good night's sleep free from financial headaches.

Celebrate freedom.

:)

63   e   2007 Feb 26, 4:34pm  

I saw some of this in the last bubble deflation in the early 1990’s, but unfortunately soon after that Netscape brought on the “next big thing” in the second half of the decade, and a lot of obnoxious “beautiful people” came here for the internet bubble.

I think that's one of the biggest surprises about moving to Silicon Valley. I grew up reading about Steve Wozniak - those fun and wacky hacker days of Silicon Valley.

Then when I got here, I found it was like New York City with an outdoor twist and without the "culture". And now it's even gotten worse with all those FooCamp/BarCamp/BlogCon/etc etc etc.

I really thought it would be about what you knew, what you could do, but in the end, it's about who you know.

64   e   2007 Feb 26, 4:37pm  

In the meantime, my 401k is maxed, and I put away at least 2k every month into other investments, as well as buying anything I want, and vacationing wherever I want, whenever I want.

Um... so you're saving $39.5k a year?

Cripes - how much are you getting paid? And is your company hiring too?

Am I that underpaid? :(

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