patrick.net

Yes all you gen X-ers, SLIDE right into that ISLAND HOME with a LOZENGE LOAN! So I can ‘ROID you all over again in outer space in “Phase II”, like the EVIL BOOMER I AM!

Well, it is nice to know that you are fine.

I can't post my thesis. The yankees are fighting to silence me by only allowing me to post a few sentences. The voices in my head are fighting back.

Please help, or I will not be able to light my candle of wisdom to chase out the darkness of housing bubble ignorance.

"Because the Chinese are REALLY smart and we are REALLY stupid"

The Chinese are late to the industrialization game. They are trying to both industrialize and leap frog into the information economy at the same time. It is trickier to accomplish than it sounds, and Americans ARE NOT stupid.

I think the Chinese will repeat the "Japanese Miracle". State meddling in pro-industrialization/pro-modernization programs will result in massively mis-allocated capital and bursting bubbles. There is a Japan scenario depression in China's future. You needn't worry about them buying up the world.

You should worry about the nexus between economic might and the ability to siphon productive capacity off of the economy and into militarization/agressive war. In particular, you should worry about China going after the Caucasus/central asian oil patch. Then you should worry about China going after Korea, Taiwan, and Japan.

--Deo Vindice

And why can't I post my thesis! Howard Dean is lurking this blog, and shooting death rays from his eyeballs to silence me. Bastard.

@ DeoV, try cutting it up and selling it as dime bags.

It was a conspiracy by Patrick & Ben to addict thousands to reading about and commenting on something that wasn’t actually real.

Which Ben? Ben Jones or Ben Bernanke?

Why are the tree huggers and enviro-whacks not outraged by the commuters being created with this central valley housing boom??

Because they finance their subversion by flipping houses.

Bap33, have you ever heard of "smart growth"? There is quite a debate in the environmental community over where.. oh fuggitabout it.

Anyone who calls their political opponents "nazis" is obviously not interested in debate.

Consider yourself on ignore, troll.

"DeoV, try cutting it up and selling it as dime bags."

Surfer-X: Too much risk in retail. Wholesale is where it's at. Besides, I'd have to put down my spliff to hold the scissors.

--Deo "Puff" Vindice

"Greenspan's theory was he could beat the Kondratief winter by massive money printing."

From John Law II over at Ben Jones's blog. I agree with this one. Greenspan is well aware of Kondratieff's work. With the lack of cohesion in our political/social structure today, we could have a class war if we went through a protracted depression. Ben would definitely see the Guillotine as an unacceptable risk.

--Deo Vindice

Deo,

Great having you back! I haven't spent a great deal of mental energy trying to quantify the "China" syndrone for many of the reason you stated above. When it comes to capitalism, either you is or you ain't. You can't be just a little bit pregnant. Look, I never said "ours" was a PERFECT system, it's just OUR system, O.K! I've often heard of China referred to as "Marketing and Leninism". If you haven't already, check out the "Big Box Mart" on Jib-Jab. Someone else mentioned it before, but in case you missed it. Freaking hysterical!

A Best of Surfer X Rants? AWESOME!

I never said “ours” was a PERFECT system, it’s just OUR system, O.K!

DiNor:

"all logical system of any complexity are, by definition, incomplete"

http://www.miskatonic.org/godel.html

--DeoVindice

P.S. China Ain't.

If China diversifies to gold, gold will be prime Peter P.

All I know is that the Chinese love gold. A bubble may be forming...

"All I know is that the Chinese love gold. A bubble may be forming… "

All I know is that your average American is stupid, lazy and easily mislead by their own greed.

A Bubble in gold will form, becuase there has to be a next bubble, so sheeple will buy gold believing that a bubble will form, making it a bubble.

Sorry, I've got Goedel on the brain.

--Deo Vindice

conspiracy scenario:

In just a few years, the Realtorâ„¢ and MLS systems will become fully computerized. Computerized kiosks will replace realtors during open houses. A new Cyberdyne-NAR corporation will take control of all housing, using margins to build its digital infrastructure. Human decision is taken out of all transactions, and the housing boom continues. On June 12, 2010, Cyberdyne-NAR becomes self-aware, and begins to directly influence the financial markets. Wall Street and unemployed realtors try to pull the plug; Cyberdyne-NAR launches its missles against Russia. Thus begins the war of the realtor machine to exterminate mankind.

Seriously, is there any way to post a long rant? I got a couple qued up for this thread, and they won't go through for some reason.

Seriously, is there any way to post a long rant? I got a couple qued up for this thread, and they won’t go through for some reason.

Cut it into 2 or 3 posts, hence, "dime bags".

TWIT,

Just deleted your test post --it defintely took.

DeoVindice,

I can't find any of your missing posts under 'awaiting moderation', so unfortunately, I can't retrieve them. You may recall I had the exact same problem a couple of days ago on Peter's thread, so it's not just you. TWIT just proved that it's not overall post length and I strongly suspect that Wordpress is filtering for specific keyword/phrase combinations, which it interprets as spam. I may have to contact Patrick for some help on this.

For now, I'd try Surfer-X's suggestion and posting in pieces. Good luck.

RE: Posting the rant, I'm going with the Howard Dean excuse............Maybe I can post when we figure out the issue.

Is peak oil real? Yes. Will it play out in 2006? I don't think so. I think that Ben wants to see the housing bubble and economy slow to prevent inflation. A slowing economy should reduce the demand/drop the price of oil. Also, the Chinese oil demand is really exported US oil demand via the trade deficit/MEW.

The yield curve is predicting a recession, or at least will be after 25bps Jan 31 and another 25bps on March 28. That should cause the quantity demanded to drop, as well as the price, as well as allow supply to build.

I'm trying to wrap my mind around the seven-sigma event risk. For example, fundamentalist revolution in Saudi, 2nd arab oil embargo, cat 6 hurricane in the gulf in July, etc. Shouldn't gold hedge against an oil price spike? Maybe a little bit of dividend yielding KMP, NHY, or E in a non-tax account. Maybe Coal (fording canadian?) or Uranium or Nat Gas as a hedge? Have any of you thought about how $200/Bbl oil would fuck up the world? I feel like complacency would be unwise........

I saw an analysis at theStreet.com that said that the PE ratios for Big Oil suggested that prices would recede. I can't make heads or tales of it. Is this based on the economy slowing? Is there a premium for supply disruption in the current prices? I might buy just a little and then wait and see.

Is gold going to $1600? I think so. Is it going to be a bubble? I think so. The question I have is how do you play the momentum game and win? For example, could you believe that there is a housing bubble and still decide to flip houses? In 2003, yes. In 2006? Ouch.

Is there anyone out there who is good at trading as opposed to investing? For example, how do you do long/short strategies to reduce risk? So far, I'm really just hedging my dollars--so the risk/reward part of it is not that complicated. I guess I could buy a newsletter or just monitor the technical guys at safeHaven for timing the market. I'm also thinking about setting a target price, say $1600, and then selling at regular intervals to "dollar cost average" my profits--so to speak.

Finally, I'm theorizing that my goldmining stocks will price in the future price of gold much higher and faster than the bullion itself. For example, if gold is priced at $800/oz, the traders will bid up the PE on the miners suggesting a price of, say, $2000. If that happened, it would be a no brainer to sell the mining stocks and keep bullion. Any thoughts? I'm still plotting my strategy and could use the help/education.

Thanks,
Deo Vindice

Some thoughts, conspiratorial and otherwise:

waiting Says:

"Here’s the main reason China is smart and we’re stupid: The Chinese think long- term, Americans, for at least the past 40 years, can’t seem to think past tonight...Chinese culture also is...incredibly savy and sophisticated..."

Bullshit! It only took 18th-century Pilgrims to America a few months to invent the fork. Chop-stix are the perfect symbol of lack of progress. Look at the Chinese, after all these centuries, they're still friggen using two bamboo twigs to eat their General Chow's Chicken, and it's already the 21st century! How stupid is that?

Sunnyvale_Renter Says:

"I don’t understand why the Chinese gov’t doesn’t make use of Falun Gong, I was just doing some reading on it and it’s a nice belief/religion..."

Because! Translated into English, Falon Gong mean Bong Falcon. Falon is actually an adjective and in the Chinese language they reverse the order of noun and adjective, just like in Spanish. For instance, "bueno frijoles senor!" means "good beans, sir!" So to "falcon" a bong is to really "whoosh" or "swoop" in the pot smoke vigorously. See?

Falon Gong are really a liberal conspiracy set in motion by the Bill Clinton, Baby Boomer CIA to subvert China with a bunch of hippy-ass liberal dope smokers from the Tibetan mountains and create a 60's-style, Woodstock cultural revolution, and, after seeing footage of a Greatful Dead concert and the mass of human wasteland, the Chinese are just saying "NO!"

Sunnyvale_Renter Says:

"I say “it’s” because many Amurrikan females are so fat you have to observe its behavior etc. for a while to see if it’s a female..."

You're so right S_Renter!

My girlfriend Marie is Italian American and I feed her well. She's gained over 100 lbs. this year alone. I just tell my neighbors, "it's" a giant hampster experiment from UC Berkeley Bio-enginetics gone awry."
I tell her affectionately between spoon feeding her canned raviolis that she's "my little meatball with legs." I know she's a female because she purs like a kitty when I stroke her hair, plus she wears a little blue bonnet!

SQT Says:

"There’s this guy, Harry Dent Jr., who made some of the early predictions about the DOW going to 40,000. I don’t know if the guy is a whack job, but what he says is interesting because he thinks we’re going to see a period of bubbles until about 2008-2009. He see’s bubbles happening in oil, and again in the stock market, but I think he also allows there may be other bubbles as well."

Yes, there will be more bubbles in book sales about bubbles. What he's really telling the suckers out there is, "I've pimped the stock market consciousness, and Y2K consciousness and real estate consciousness of the average American; thereby, contributing to the crowd hysteria and creating these insane situations; thereby, unloading millions of my useless theoretical books on these topics, and--although wrong in my prognostications--I've made $$$ millions, Jim Cramer-style!"

"And now to add insult to inury, and butter to bread, I will write books about the gold bubble; thereby, creating another book bubble in books about the gold bubble like I did with the other financial matters...laughing all the way to the bank! Doesn't matter if I'm wright or wrong, since news is now entertainment! So read this b-tch! Bwhahahaahaaa!"

Jim Ausman Says:

"Right after the collapse of the dotcom bubble, I became convinced that the whole economy was going to come off its rails, so I went about 10% into physical gold and 5% into gold producers. Unfortunately, I did not understand the difference between hedged and unhedged producers, so I just bought the major (Barrick and Placer)...I sold the gold stocks about a year ago, and in another stunning display of bad timing, half of the physical gold as well. Oh well, I never thought it would make me rich."

Sorry to break the bad news to you, and you aren't alone, but there is no such thing as gold. "Gold," as it stands, is a conspiracy of international central banks to create the illusion that gold-colored lead is actually worth something. Actually, these internationalist bankers are a secret cabal of medieval alchemists who succeeded thousands of years ago in gold-plating lead to make it shiny and precious-looking.

They've kept the secret hidden for centuries, millenia even, and have risen to rule the economies of the nations of the world through their control of the media, which allows them unlimited access to promote the false message of gold to the unsuspecting, greedy masses.

Their last-ditch effort will be to collapse the economies of the world using Red China as the lynchpin to bring it all down, and then come in as the saviors with a "gold" solution by re-establishing the gold standard for a New World Order currency system. Problem is, it's all friggen fake! Bwahahahahahaaa! The people never learn it seems@

*************************THE END**************************

A Home Boom Busts

Shanghai's hot housing market has fizzled after a run-up fed by speculators, threatening a significant part of China's economy.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-chinabubble8jan08,0,7585034.story?coll=la-home-headlines&track=morenews

Food for though, grounds for further research!

Yeah,

I've had my fill of Harry Dent and Jimmy Kramer and their ilk. The problem with these types is that once they've enjoyed even a modest success they've unintentionally created an infrastructure that now needs to be fed! Hence the "serial" publications, newsletter subscription revenues, etc. etc. Jimmy Kramer's legendary fax machine throwing hissy fits utterly bore me. I've worked for guys like this in the past and it was a major factor in my going independent.

I call this; "That dog won't hunt". Once people get out of "production" the "bull-pen" or boiler room they will do anything and I do mean ANYTHING to keep from being thrown back in there. Look at your own place of business. Guys that get handed a "tie" will throw their own mother under a bus if it means keeping that desk! The investment world amplifies this factor many fold because of the dollars at stake. Once these guys get a taste of easy money (my personal favorite Vita Nelson) and her "buy stock direct through the company newsletter" has probably made a fortune peddling her BS. Anyone with half a brain can join the NAIC (National Association of Investors Clubs) for frickin FREE! Most do just fine w/o Vita.

If their "budget" and generic advice blows somebody up they just change their tune and come at it with EVEN MORE conviction. It's all about ratings and sales. When you're destitute in your old age try getting your money back from Harry Dent.

DinOR Says:

"When you’re destitute in your old age try getting your money back from Harry Dent."

Exactly!

Michael Holliday: Knock, knock, knock...

Harry Dent: Who's there?

Michael Holliday: Michael Holliday.

Harry Dent: Holliday? Who dat? It's not Christmas anymore.

Michael Holliday: I'm the guy who subscribed to your newsletters and investment advice and stuff for years. I told my friends all about you. Now I'm broke and all my friends have left me for screwing them with your worthless advice. The whole reason you are living pimp is because of guys like me. I love your superfly mansion and megamillions bank account but I need a helping financial hand, since your investment advice has basically cost me all my sh-t after the housing collapse and dot com implosion!

Harry Dent: Bwahahahahaa! Oh, you are indeed a wise and silly old fool Holliday! It was all friggen' ENTERTAINMENT! Gosh damn. You actually believed my hype? What a loser. Like the old saying goes, "there's a sucker born every minute." Your own greed got the best of you Holliday. I mearly painted a picture of riches, like sugar plums dancing, in your own
nappy little head. And you took the bait like a hungry Catfish, and got your whiskers burnt like the crispy little critter that you really are.

Michael Holliday: But you said by joining your special Gold Star super-duper newletter for $250 a month, I'd be privy to the BEST insider information that would make me wealthy, healthy and wise. Now here I am, destitute and impoverished, I can't even afford to cook at home to feed my face, much less keep my chubby, meatball-with-legs-lookin' girlfriend fat and happy.

Harry Dent: Look pal, scram! I've got a dinner appointment with Jim Cramer and Bill Clinton. We're going out on the town to score some dames and smoke fine Cubano cigars and have a big ole' schmaltzy time.
Just like the brat pack from the 60' and 70's, remember them? Vegas style. Oh, before I leave, I have one last word of advice for you...well, it's actually not advice but it's an old Hungarian pre-World War II saying from Auckland, New Zealand, and it's this: "A fool and his money are soon parted." And like Jim Cramer says on MAD MONEY: "Booyah!"

Michael Holliday: I hope you roast in hell you toothless old clod. Damn you and the Baby Boomer generation that raped Gen-X. I hope you choke on your Pot Pipe you greedy little Bong Falcon (Falon Gong in Chinese).

Sunnyvale_Renter says:
There’s the idea of “overhead” which explains why hunter-gatherers lived pretty well - they only had to “produce” food to eat day to day, and say hides for teepees, hides for clothes, stuff for bows’n'arrows and stuff, and so on. No rent. No taxes. No cable bill. A modern person has to produce many times the “overhead” a hunter-gatherer does, and that’s why most modern people run themselves to death to pay for the rent/mortgage, car payment, etc when think about it, all the body knows is it was fed, slept that night, etc. It comes out the same. And as for the mind, with the free time hunter-gatherers had, the mind is much better off - there’s a reason “primitive” peoples have some of the most complex languages on the planet.

Innovation happens when you've had good times, have a lot of children survive, and things get worse all of a sudden. Cold summers, hail, whatever. Often, people then innovate to avoid starving, and when times get better, they can support more people per square mile with the new technology.
That trend is unbroken for the last couple of thousand years, minor hiccups like the fall of the Roman Empire or plague epidemics excluded.

So - hunter-gatherer life is great (and provably healthier), but you probably couldn't support more than a few thousand people in all of the Bay Area.

About conspiracy theories: I'm surprised no one has brought up the catholic church, whose long-term goal it is to increase world population. My guess is it's because they're much more successful in times of confusion and misery, so they need to push for more of it.
The housing bubble is just a side effect.

By the way, I don't know whether it made the news around here, but strangely enough, in Europe it seems to have become very hip amoung the youngsters to be practicing Christian. Whatever upsets the parents, I guess.

"Enviro-whack nazsi’s blow ….. period. They are selfish freaks." -- Bap33

How are Environmentalists "selfish"?! Seems to me that people who work to keep us (the human race) from fucking up our planet beyond all life-carrying capacity are actually quite self-LESS instead of selfish. The selfish people are those particular breed of fat-cat Capitalists who strive to enrich themselves at the expense of the planet and other people.

And by the way, I write the above as a self-professed Capitalist who majored in Economics and thinks our system is pretty darn good. But you need checks and balances on it, or the system will go out of control and destroy everything in its path. Think about it: the only thing that stops negative externalities created by business is Government regulation. No powerplant has any vested interest in spending huge amounts of money to install chimney scrubbers to reduce emissions. Environmentalists are the kind of people who lobby for rules to stop this so they're kids and friends don't have to die of cancer while investors reap profits. This is self-preservation, not selfishness.

Man--the technical issues are killing me! my chance to expound on the evils of liberalism dashed! We are going to need a "Deo" thread, as I currently have 28 hours worth of rants archived. The voices must be heard! They are starting to get angry.

Patrick.....Please....fix......bugs......must........post........rants..................

--Deo Vindice

Great bumper sticker that I saw on a pick-up truck:

"Piss off a liberal: work hard, take your family to church, and be happy"

Budha said:

Everything contains the seed of its own destruction at the time of its creation.

What will KILL the liberal/progressive agenda is that they score victories, they alienate the average Americans who have the power to crush them at the ballot box. Look what Republican hegemony has brought us recently: Samuel Alito. Sandra O'connor was the swing vote that allowed the lunacy to reach fever pitch. Alito will restore the constitution and the Republic. Rember: your founding fathers who wrote the constitution distrusted democracy and intended the constitution to prevent the rule of radical mobs. It was not meant to be an alternative legislature for wackos who couldn't accomplish their ends by democratic means. The 9th circuit can go to hell, fascists.

In particular those misogynist bitches called gender feminists are done. Soccer moms who go to PTA meetings are taking back America from these insane weirdos who demand sexual harassmant training for Kindergartners. Just how do those cunts manage to be misandrist and misogynist at the same time? Do they really think that women who sacrifice to stay at home and raise their children want to be told that they are just enforcing the "Male patriarchy".

And why do Ivy League Madrassas like Harvard, Dartmouth, and Wellsley get research grants and student loans? Isn't there a law against using Federal funds to support hate groups?

Why are my tax dollars funding tenured professors who commit academic fraud and ensure that only left wingers become tenured professors? If they want charity to support their totaltarian causes, they should get it from George Soros. It is not my job to fund the left wing of the Democratic party.

And Merry CHRISTMAS to all of you at the ACLU. God bless America, George Bush, the patriots fighting for Iraqi democracy, and George Bush(again).

Oh yeah, the puritans didn't leave England for religious freedom; they left because they were too radical in their heresy to tolerate anyone around them that didn't share their utopian/totalitarian beliefs. Some things never change.

Fuck New England, and their comrades in Berkely.

--Deo Vindice

And another thing: When will Democrats learn that you can't fix every problem with a hammer and sicle. Didn't the collapse of the Berlin wall prove the point? It's sure done wonders for making housing affordable.

--Deo Vindice

"libs are not having children"

How could they? They believe that gender is a social construct. It takes a more solid grasp of biology to enable successful procreation.

--Deo Vindice

Harry Bidurchi:

Lighten up, dude. We're on a roll.

After all, was it over when the German's bombed Pearl Harbor?

Here's a thought: When the housing bubble pops, there's still gonna be a ton of liquidity.

Let's do an LBO of China! It couldn't cost more than $100 Trillion, give or take.

--Deo Vindice

"most conservatives I’m acquainted with"

Doodler, I do not believe that you know any actual conservatives. Please provide references with contact details.

Thank you,
Deo Vindice

Oh yeah, the puritans didn’t leave England for religious freedom; they left because they were too radical in their heresy to tolerate anyone around them that didn’t share their utopian/totalitarian beliefs. Some things never change.

–Deo Vindice

Are you a chick? Because I want to kiss you, and I don't like pudding or gay cowboy movies.

I am reading “The world is FLAT”.

Of course it's flat, otherwise all the water would run off into space.

Sunnyvale_Renter: I looked up paleoconservative. Not me.

I think I tested on a survey as a "free enterpriser". I don't consider myslef Republican, and I am too concerned with facts, reason, and history to EVER be a Democrat. I believe that ideology is cancer--idealism only brings suffering to the people that it claims to serve.

Also, I am aware enough of the stakes to support a strong international role for the US. I favor LEGAL immigration; the present system that we have does not benfit anyone.

Outcomes are the best criteria to judge policies. The trick is pragmatism tempered with moral rightness. I reject moral relativism. There is definitely right and wrong, good and evil, beauty and ugliness. But the quest for rightness can not come at the expense of others.

I believe that those of higher conscience have the duty to influence others by living their lives in such a way as to demonstrate a proper example for others to follow. Unlike Libs, I believe that coercion or violence is immoral. People can not be forced to accept the errors of their ways. They can be shown a path to doing better.

Strive for a better world, but expect people and institutions to fail. They will. Libs who believe in Utopian solutions will fail, and subject us all to misery in the process.

Those who believe that they can overcome the inherent fallen nature of man are guilty of Pride and Hubris. God will punish them. Their views and actions are not right because they fail to take responsiblility for all consequences of their actions. They merely lead the lemmings off the cliff, and then find someone else to blame. All we need is more repression, and then we will have Utopia!

If I had to sum up my political philosophy, I would quote the greatest American who ever lived, and our only true king:

"You have only always to do what is right. It will come easier through practice, and you will enjoy an approving conscience. That in the end will make it all worth it."

Robert E. Lee

I'm also reminded of a story from Lee's life after the war as President of present day Washington and Lee University. It was his duty to council a failing young student. The student said, "But General, you Failed". Lee replied, "Perhaps you will do better."

Can you imagine? Now that's a gentleman.

I have held priceless relics associated with Lee in my hands. It was a near religious experience. I recommend that you buy and read a biography of Lee if you want to understand the Liberal/conservative conflict in America and its historical roots.

The past is prologue. The age of gentlemen has not passed.

--Deo Vindice

"BTW, I’m middle of the road, but I just think it’s ironic that DeoVindice and sunnyvale_renter are such “gloom and doomers”, which is exactly what liberals are constantly accused of."

I'm actually quite hopeful for the future. I even plan to have more children.

--Deo Vindice

HarryRich, let me be the first to say FUCK YOU, FUCK YOUR FAT WIFE, FUCK YOUR SUV, AND FUCK YOUR YUPPIE FRIENDS.

My isn't he profane?

ps

FUCK YOU.

pps

FUCK YOU

ppps

FUCK YOU

PPPPS

FUCK YOU

Did I mention, FUCK YOU?

HarryRich, AKA Feliz Chuck. Jeebus H. Christ, what the fuck is with these head up the ass, assholes? Any head up ass asshole care to comment? To fucking deny there is a housing bubble at this stage in the game is to imply the Pope isn't a Nazi. Ok, so you can split a hair because the Pope actually was only a member of the Hitler youth. Read the fucking blog title, HOUSING CRASH. Oh shit, I'm sorry, this would imply you actually knew how to read.

Mr UP, can I kindly borrow your bull-horn as i wish to drive around in my car yelling FUCK out the window to all the McDebtors*.

*Note: this does not imply in any manner, shape or form that Mr. UP or his affiliates are in any way McDebtors. Mr UP is clearly a man of means, and personally I would feel lucky to lick his toilets.

Good morning my Renter Friends!
America is terrific! Good to use other people’s money to make us rich!

Ever wonder why people come here to gloat? Is "owning" really something worth bragging about? Our house is a lot of work, especially this winter.