patrick.net

Trying to generalize so much as to EQUATE Vegas with the Bay Area, or make the case that it is PREFERABLE to the Bay Area… sheesh dude! Get me some DUST will you? I want to make my house more like Vegas now… gotta love those Vegas intangibles…

Well, let's see...

Weather: Both LV and BA, nice and dry
Economy: BA - shrinking, LV - booming
Food: BA - good, LV - good
Condo quality: BA - horrible, LV - pretty nice :)

"gotta love those Vegas intangibles"

Besides its blatant and unique tawdriness and the sheer magnitude of the neon spectacle, Vegas has only one intangible going for it: legalized sin. This is a huge draw, judging from the epic line of traffic going between LA and Vegas each weekend.

"Trying to generalize so much as to EQUATE Vegas with the Bay Area, or make the case that it is PREFERABLE to the Bay Area… sheesh dude! "

Jack is right (oh god he's taken over my damn brain again!), you've inhaled too much desert dust if you think Vegas wins over the BA. I've spent a lot of time in both places, and to continue Peter P's list, but making the opposite case...

Landscape: Vegas, monotonous but pretty if you like brown; BA, varied and stunningly gorgeous

Culture: Vegas, cool if you like Blue Man Group; BA, has something for everyone

People: Vegas, middle America-ish; BA, where all the weird and smart and creative people converge

Now lets talk about PRICES PeterP… why do you think a vegas condo is so much cheaper than a bay area condo? Could it be that desireability is reflected in the PRICE?

Actually, strip high-rise condos are usually more expensive per sqft than BA SFHs.

Yes and that’s probably because the typical BA condo is 35+ years old, outmoded, functionally obsolete construction (i.e., no garage, no in-unit laundry, etc.)

I am a big fan of condos. It is sad that developers do not take condo construction seriously. Garage and in-built laundry should be as essential as floor and ceiling.

Landscape: Vegas, monotonous but pretty if you like brown; BA, varied and stunningly gorgeous

People: Vegas, middle America-ish; BA, where all the weird and smart and creative people converge

True. ;)

Also, Vegas is good only if you have money to burn. Outside the strip it is pretty scary.

What's with all the Vegas bashing?!

Portland has it's share of undesirables, believe me. Tune in and you'll find plenty of "Cops" episodes filmed here. The Mayor had to come out right before the shopping season and reassure people ( in spite of numerous random shootings) that downtown was safe! The difference is that in Vegas you can have REAL fun! Whatever that means to you. I could never picture myself as a full time resident but when you haven't seen the sun in Oregon for six weeks?

I love San Francisco, really I do. Portland for all it's efforts will never be in a league with S.F. No matter your vocation you'll get paid less for doing it here! Up until recently our RE prices reflected that dynamic. Thanks to free money and greed we now rank in the Top 10 least affordable places year after year. Buy my home posted on Craigslist before I list with an agent in the spring!

Yeah, I don't get what Steve is up to either. A $500 round of golf? Try explaining that to the accountant, and from what I've been told you can't actually see the course itself. It's blocked from the prying eyes that can't afford $500 outings.

Recently a client asked me if I could help out a friend that was in arrears on a "resort property" up in Idaho. Coming up with "hard money" lenders in the 11th. hour isn't really my bag but I said I would try. These guys are more plentiful than I'd imagined and it only took one phone call. Long story short, the guy in arrears starts giving me this sales pitch about what an up and coming area this is and how "the billionaires are moving the millionaires out"! Sheesh! That seems to be Steve's message but I'll translate that to mean millionaires that WISH they were billionaires. We can't have the "riff-raff" in here now can we.

Pricing "other" people out has been a large part of the appeal of the housing bubble as many flocked to fake "gated" communities. I'm an ambivert (I'm told most of us are) but even in my best years I never thought I was better than anybody else.

DinOR,

Are you serious about leaving Portland? How long have you lived there? Right at the moment I'm trying to find a way to get my family up there (preferably with my job). I have friends up there and have visited Portland several times in the last decade or so. I have always enjoyed it and love the woodsy atmosphere, low population density, short commutes and clean air (my wife accuses me of being a mountain goat in a past life).

Sure, there's lots of rain and you don't see the sun much in winter (you could also say the same thing about a lot of places --Washington, Atlanta, etc.). It just doesn't bother me --personally, I love the rain and having a change of seasons. I can see how if you hate rain this could be a major "negative intangible", though. Overall, compared to just about anywhere in CA, you can have a vast improvement in your Q.O.L. without paying a huge premium for it, a-la Marin. just my 2 centavos.

tomg --thanks for the link.

Although it doesn't mention the bubble, it's very on-target with the whole "intangibles" vs. cost/quality-of-life discussion we're having here. It's plainly obvious that large numbers of non-wealthy Gen-Xers and echo boomers are getting fed up with paying a gigantic premium for the "privilege" of living in an overcrowded third-word cesspool. Can't wait to get my ticket out of Bubbleville.

If done honestly and done in a diligent manner, statistics are a powerful tool.

Speaking of statistics, meaningful or otherwise:

CNNMoney: "Most overvalued housing markets - Latest analysis of 299 markets: See how your hometown ranks"

money.cnn.com/2005/12/29/real_estate/buying_selling/handicapping_housing_markets/index.htm

If done honestly and done in a diligent manner, statistics are a powerful tool.

Yes, when pushed correctly, statistics are a powerful propaganda tool. ;)

But I DO belive that Vegas will someday be our first American Ruins.

Hasn't NO won that distinction?

Two of my ex-co-workers moved from the silly valley to austin. It is a smart move for families with kids.

Let me guess... I bet your house is 3000+ sf and you probably need a cleaning lady. ;)

Question about the upsurge in media predictions of a real-estate crash… What is their motivation? Scare the sheeple? Ratings? Induce a ’soft-landing’?

Media is trend-following. They tend to reinforce any trend that is already apparent. Sheeples are irrational beings prone to scares. Talk of a real-estate crash necessarily lead to a crash.

The crash will come. The only question is: will there be blood on the street.

I fear there will be, but I also fear the gov’t reaction to the blood.

Perhaps use it to make Blood Wine? :D

I also like the Desert. Somebody tell me about the BEST desert location…

Jack, with your artist's background, I think you would really like Santa Fe. One of my great-aunts lives there and the place is just amazing. Every building in town is required to be built in either the traditional "peublo" or Spanish architectural style. It abounds with Southwestern and Native American arts and crafts, in fact I believe that's the main industry. Only drawback is it's not cheap. Of course, if you're selling your pricey Marin home, then that might not matter to you ;-) .

Deo Bating? "I'm the last to defend Deo?"

Wow, I sure wore out my welcome fast......It's not easy having many voices in your head. It makes it difficult to distill highly esoteric analysis. So I'll just propose a few questions, and let others answer.

Who benefits from this housing bubble? Who loses? What are the long term consequences? How would you use this bubble (and its effects on the GSEs) to crush your enemies?

The North/South debate is a proxy for Red/Blue. It exlains motivation. Remember, People in charge are smart and have long term vision.

I dare you to read my lat post on the last thread. I double dog dare you!

Finally, I love a good frat party! In my (ample) experience, they usually end (at least the good ones) with FIRE!

--Deo

Who benefits from this housing bubble? Who loses? What are the long term consequences? How would you use this bubble (and its effects on the GSEs) to crush your enemies?

We have multiple layers of stable disequilibrium.

1) Housing bubble
2) Trade deficit
3) Bretton Wood 2.0

Will the demise of one cause the collapse of the next?

I know some WASPS in VA that have exerted an enormous amount of power in this country since they founded the Jameston Company. They are not about to give it up, nor are they in danger of coming to the attention of John Q. Public. They have VERY long memories, and they don't like the Kennedys.

Disclaimer: That IS NOT a conspiracy theory.

Sunnyvale:

"Who runs the media?
What is the number one news show on TV? The Factor with Bill O'reilly. Ever notice that Dagen McDowell, Shep Smith, and many guests have Southern accents? Ever hear one before amongst the New York Media? Why does the NYT and LA Times have to keep laying off people? Why is fox the number one network in the ratings?

BTW, I'd like to think that the management of the respective news companies run them for the benefit of the shareholders. Call me naive.

"Who runs banking?"
Who will go bust when Fannie and Freddie go bust? Rember, an implied guaranty is not a guaranty. It certainly does obligate the taxpayer to pay 100% on the dollar.

"Our troops, rather than being on our borders, are overseas benefiting whom?" Our troops are building a bulwark and forward base to deter Chinese agression. The Chinese are well aware that oil is their achilles heal. Diplomacy is the patient management of self interest over long spans of time. Do not make it a moral issue, or you will misinterpret events.

Jack:

Power is best used quietly. Indirection has ever been the manner of the court. He who wields power publicly is only a temporary phenomenon. Christ may have changed the world, but what good did it do him?

Yes, you will slip through the teeth of their gaping maw. You are not significant enough to be worth destroying. The ruling class never concerns themselves with the peasants. (Empiracle Fact--not meant as an insult. Neither am I).

--Deo

"It certainly does obligate the taxpayer to pay 100% on the dollar."

meant DOES NOT obligate

Very insightful, DeoVindice.

We certainly do not need troops to protect the borders (no need yet). Instead, we need civil programs that persecute businesses who knowlying hire undocumented aliens.

It certainly does not obligate the taxpayer to pay 100% on the dollar.

I certainly hope so.

I am not entirely against the idea of bailing out large failing entities. However, I worry a lot about moral hazards.

I believe we should hold the executive of reckless enterprise personally responsible. If the decision makers of these entities are threaten with execution, they would be think twice before putting the system at risk for personal gains.

DeoVindice, are you really a Southern neo-sessionist (as your name implies)? If so, do you really see the housing bubble as a deliberate form of South vs. North economic warfare, or are you being tongue-in-cheek here? Just curious.

Baby boomers in Blue states just built the infrastructure and ***future*** affordable housing for red states. Why? Because they have some money, and they need more for retirement. And they're sheep.

The red states will use this advantage to steal jobs from states like Taxachusetts. The blue state/red state border is easier to cross than the Rio Grande. Young, educated workers will leave for afforable housing and low taxes, sticking blue states with the tab for raising/educating them. New York bankers will get stuck in the process.

As Intended? Maybe a little. Unintended? Maybe a little. Politicians take advantage of emerging situations. Roller coaster? Maybe.

BTW, won't border jumpers make good target practice for green troops and nat'l guardsmen? Sounds like an opportunity to me.

--Deo Vindice

As Intended? Maybe a little. Unintended? Maybe a little. Politicians take advantage of emerging situations. Roller coaster? Maybe.

The housing bubble is not exactly easy to manipulate though...

If what you said is true, somehow the stars aligned correctly for these politicians.

DeoVindice,

I agree that it's mostly blue states that are experiencing the credit/housing bubble (with FL, NV & VA being notable exceptions); however I, like Peter, have serious doubts as to it being a deliberate outcome of any conspiracy. I like a good X-files episode as much as the next guy, but if there's any "conspiracy" behind the HB, odds are it's a conspiracy of greed and ignorance.

BTW, won’t border jumpers make good target practice for green troops and nat’l guardsmen? Sounds like an opportunity to me.

It is much cheaper and easier to build electrified fencing IMHO. Perhaps I am just a boring and passive person. :)

"DeoVindice, are you really a Southern neo-sessionist (as your name implies)?"

No. Why would we secede when we control the house, the senate, and are about to add another conservative to the court. That would be illogical. I do have a deep respect for the patriots who fought to preserve the constituion and the republic from New England tyranny, "The noble cause".

I just believe that New England is dangerous and always has been. I resent the negative force that they are and always have been. In particular, I have 2 children, and I do not appreciate what the Ivy League leftists have done to our educational system. But really, I have no repsect for any of their views or their cynical power games. (For example, take a look at the Left wing of the Democratic party).

It also turns my stomach that educators in our school system tell our children that Lincoln was a good man and the saviour of our country. He deliberately targeted women and children and sought to cause as much suffering as possible. Beyond that, people have a right to choose their own govt. Our founding fathers believed that. It's why their children and grand children served as the high command and officers of the confederate army and government. No one is obligated to live at the mercy of a dictator without a fight.

My one concern is that they must be finished off completely. The North did us a courtesy in not finishing us off; I hope that we do not return the favor. When the climate is sufficiently unfavorable for them, they may well reform their own society and get rid of the entrenched interests that have always used the rest of the US as their colonies for the looting.

It is not illogical to conclude that the entrenched powers in NE will move to secede to preserve their power. That is the nature of power; Self preservation. I'm sure the South will let them secede if they choose that route. It is their right. We will load them down with debt if they do decide to leave.

By the way, the phrase "Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely" came from correspondence between Lord Acton and Robert E. Lee. It was about Araham Lincoln and New England moneyed interests in particular.

BTW, your founding fathers were British nobles who supprted Charles the first against Cromwell's Puritans--the cousins of the New Englanders. The king got his head cut off, and they fled to Virginia. They were not the peasants that New engalnders are. That is the historical event that the beginning credits in "Gone with the Wind" refer to. The Lees, Randolphs, Carters, Washington's, and many other fine families descend from the knights who rode with William the conquerer in 1066 and Richard the Lion Hearted to Jerusalem. The Mayflower finds this fact inconvenient, as does our public educational system.

That is why George Washington, General Lee, Thomas Jefferson and other VA patriots were able to handle power without being corrupted. They were born into it. And that is why it is crucial that we defeat New England and its corrupt cronies. The constitution and the republic of our founding fathers will be restored.

--Deo Vindice

Fl, NV, and VA are experiencing a bubble in Blue state speculators. It was certainly not locals in FL and NV; They don't have the money. NOVA is a cesspool of yankee invaders.

I had a friend at UVA whose family had been in Fairfax for 250 years, and he would get seriously pissed if someone tried to tell him he was not a Southerner.

None of this is about conspiracies. Different groups have different ambitions for different historical reasons, and people plot at the same time that they are at the mercy of devloping events. The skillful adapt.

Sunnyvale Renter: You are a true American. You are on the money. Thank you for your support of the cause. You may even be ready to hear my end-game scenarios ;)

--Deo Vindice

BTW, won’t border jumpers make good target practice for green troops and nat’l guardsmen? Sounds like an opportunity to me.

Too easy to point the finger at "illegals" imo. Fact is, they support much of California's agricultural industry. How many Californians would want those jobs? Give them work passes and legalize these necessary labor migrations. Personally, I'm sick of the tendency to criminalize every social problem.

DeoVindice,

Having respect for one's ancestors and history is fine, but calling Southern session “The noble cause” (which was after all, to preserve a system based on the not-so-noble institution of slavery) and then labelling Northen efforts to preserve the union (and nation) "New England tyranny"? *Ahem* I'm sure Lincoln wasn't a saint, but calling him a dictator or murderer is flat out absurd.

People get killed in wars --this is true regardless of who starts (or finishes) the war. That's just the nature of war and why it's so terrible. Civil wars (as the name implies) are usually the worst kind of war --large numbers of "civil"ians including women and children get killed because it's city vs. city, brother vs. brother. Lincoln and Davis were probably no more bloodthirsty than any other leader presiding over such a conflict, IMO.

And don't even get me started about Andersonville...

Give them work passes and legalize these necessary labor migrations.

That is fine with me. I support Bush's worker program.

However, it is not okay to wink and nod. ;)

There should only be LEGAL IMMIGRATION — illegal immigration should be dealt severely. I do not understand why USA grants periodic amnesty!

Certainly, I don't support an endless flow of people into the country. Give undocumented ag workers documentation so their presence can be counted and properly regulated. That said, closing the border--especially a thorough "East-German" approach--will be a very expensive and tedious affair. There must be a better way.

That said, closing the border–especially a thorough “East-German” approach–will be a very expensive and tedious affair. There must be a better way.

Absolutely. We need to have a way for the needed labor to come in legal so the process and be regulated. Then we need to take away the demand for illegal workers - i.e. sending employers to jail.

pardon the poor spelling --meant to say "secession"

HARM--People get killed in wars--women and children are not legitimate combatants. Nor was it legitimate to deny the South infrastructure to deliberately impoverish them after the war. Not only was the South not reconstructed after 50% of the property was destroyed by Union forces, they did not receive any development until the New Deal. Deliberating inflicting generations of suffering is wrong.

The Civil War was about Slavery? Lincoln made it pretty clear more than once that it was not. You're just using the tactic of blaming the rape victim. Certainly, waging war on women and children was not to free the slaves.

What do you call a man who uses force to impose his rule on a people who deomcratically elected their own government? Dictator.

Were are founding fathers wrong when they decalred independence? Why would their children and grandchildren be wrong in doing the same?

And please no bullshit about George Bush and Iraq------