patrick.net

@ Mr. Fuck_Up

You are totally correct, but for the wrong reasons, everyone with any money what-so-ever has moved to California, in fact California is now the center of all profitable industries, RE, manufacturing, banking, you name it. Fuck all those fucks that think just because housing is >70% overvalued by traditional measures in the Coastal regions such as Santa Barbara and SLO it will fall. They are just pussys. You greatly deserve the equity you have gained, I say take it out and buy another Hummer, you are clearly a fucking genius and are correct about the confluence very unlikely events that need to happen to cause a "crash". I say take out all your equity (if you haven't already done so :) ) and buy a couple of mid priced, say 600K, condos in SLO.

Well, the certainty of a “belief” and the knowledge of a fact are two separate issues. One deals with a faith on something that one believes to be true, the other deals with the truth.

Then perhaps you have chosen your belief (with "certainty") without adequate knowledge? :)

I was joking. I like you all right.

Belief

Many corporations make lots of money from that fat dude and his sleigh.

You mean there is no santa?

Felcher-X,

And a Merry F*cking Christmas to you, too.

It is getting hard to tell... are you guys all right?

how will your children ever be able to afford a house?

Ahh babies, the other, other, white meat.

Fake P writes:
Hey Girgl, you seem to think that there is a contradiction in my statements. Just want to let you know that I’m an engineer by trade and writing statements with contradictions is uncommon and goes against the very fabric of my being. You could reconcile the two statements by having the appreciation go flat…:)

Oh goody. A permanently high plateau. Then I can continue to save >$2,000 a month by renting, and I won't miss out on all the appreciation. It's a win-win situation.

About the question when rents will finally go up: Rents aren't as flexible as mortgage payments. Remember, it's money down the drain, so you can't fool yourself about "making it up in appreciation". You'll probably check whether you're *actually* able to afford the payment.
Also, as in any market, you need a supply problem for prices to rise. And I just can't see that around here, not even in the next few years, especially with all the folks leaving, and all the small-time RE tycoons getting squeezed.

Good to be back on RE talk after all the event planning traffic. :-)

Mr. Up says:
[For the bubble to burst, ...]All roads must lead to massive foreclosures. If any one of the required events (high interest rates, strangled liquidity, speculators dumping units, massive unemployment) can be averted,

You mean all four events (that happen to be interconnected by positive feedback loops) must happen at the same time for good clean burstage?
Never I say, NEVER.

Um, isn’t this the blog party thread? I thought all the RE talk was the traffic.

Yes, Any serious RE talk would be seriously off topic. :)

SQT says:
Um, isn’t this the blog party thread? I thought all the RE talk was the traffic.

Sorry about the off-topic drivel then :-)
Who can create threads?

DinOR --excellent post!

I have created a new thread from it: "Lagging Vs. Leading Implosion Indicators"

Also, has anyone sent an email to Patrick inviting him to the party?

I thought anyone reading here is invited. Since Patrick is special, perhaps we sould send him an e-mail.

how exactly do we find eachother since most of us don’t know what the other’s look like

Good question...

Massive foreclosures are not a requirement at all. Think of it like a margin call.

Massive foreclosures will first be the effect of the initial crash and then the cause for further collapse. Feedback loop.

SQT, according to weather.com, fog is possible on Saturday in Roseville. So let's wait and see.. I have sent you my cell phone number. (I will be in SF on Saturday morning so I will not be blogging.)

how exactly do we find eachother since most of us don’t know what the other’s look like?

Majita isn't a very big place, and I've met Peter and Jack already. Look for 3 guys discussing real estate?

Btw, what time did we settle on: 1:30...or 2?

Btw, what time did we settle on: 1:30…or 2?

1:30.

But Kurt, it is fine to be a little late. Don't rush. Drive safely.

SQT, you know what I look like...you can look for me, right?

If it's a small place, it shouldn't be too hard to find the other people in a largish group if you arrive late, or of we arrive early it's pretty easy to pick out the other person or people standing around looking confused about who they're supposed to be meeting.

Here is info about parking and directions for the ferry building tomorrow. It includes all the parking options and costs:

http://www.ferrybuildingmarketplace.com/html/visitor_info.html

Is KurtS going to kyack over with his wife? Or just take the ferry? LOL just kidding Kurt!

LOL...I'd love to, but the wind off the bay is freezing now! Ferry is more likely.

Here is info about parking and directions for the ferry building tomorrow. It includes all the parking options and costs

Btw, you may find better parking just a few block into the financial district, as the Ferry Blding/Embarcadero is clogged with holiday shoppers.

"Btw, you may find better parking just a few block into the financial district, as the Ferry Blding/Embarcadero is clogged with holiday shoppers."

Do you know any exact blocks that have parking? Because unless I know exactly where I'm going, I'll just be wandering around confused. I never drive in the city, and I'm parking-impaired.

I'm sorry you won't make it, SQT. :-(

I think I’m going to have to cry mercy and face the fact that I am not going to be able to make the party.

That's okay.

Do you know any exact blocks that have parking? Because unless I know exactly where I’m going, I’ll just be wandering around confused. I never drive in the city, and I’m parking-impaired.

Generally, that's true for me too, but this happens to be where my office is located.
From the Ferry building (Embarcadero rd), drive up Mission, take a left on Spear then a right on Howard. There's several lots on Howard and Main that have weekend rates, and of course--parking meters everywhere (possibly cheaper too).

Thank you, Kurt! I'll try to use one of those lots.

See you all tomorrow!

Saturday Dec 17 13:30 Ferry Building, SF

Use your instinct to find others. Once we have critical mass the group will be easy to spot. :)

I plan on coming. I will be the short guy with the very pregnant wife.

I plan on coming. I will be the short guy with the very pregnant wife.

Welcome, welcome, welcome. :) See you tomorrow... I mean today. :)

Saturday Dec 17 13:30 Ferry Building, SF

Btw, 13:30 means 1:30 pm on your standard Timex.

It was great meeting you all today, Peter P, Jack, Jamie and the lurker who's name I forget (Chris?) as well as Peter's wife. Sorry I could not stay longer, I had to leave just as the conversation got interesting.

Brokeback Mtn was outstanding by the way. They really did a good job of capturing what Wyoming is really like.

Hey SQT, we missed you. It was great meeting live blog people! Thank you to everyone who showed up and made it such a fun afternoon.

And we actually HAD a GOAT at the blog party. No, really! We did. Well...actually, he's a lurker who plans to post by the name billygoat. So now I guess I have to quit with all the goat jokes, eh?

Thanks for the movie recommendation Jimbo. I'll definitely check it out.

It was great meeting live blog people! Thank you to everyone who showed up and made it such a fun afternoon.

Yes--quite a lively discussion! It was almost like a...blog--but with real people!