patrick.net

I have an “offer” on a house down here in SLO, I low-balled them by 50K and they accepted, I am going to string them along and stroke them as much as possible, and the bail out at the last minute. I plan on doing again this many many many times. Hopefully at least one debtor will cry.

He he he he. :twisted:

Both Surfer-X and Peter P are very sick. I am totally disgusted by your degenerate actions. I hope that someone else will do similar things to you when you are down and out.

So you do admit that those homeowners are down and out? :)

Moreover, Surfer-X can do whatever he wants within the boundary of the law.

Caution: right handed fencers have to stand goofy foot.

Dude, I am a goofy-foot :)

Go left youngman.

Both Surfer-X and Peter P are very sick. I am totally disgusted by your degenerate actions. I hope that someone else will do similar things to you when you are down and out.

Another of my recent favs is to gobble a giant burrito, wait about 3-4hrs, then take a laxative of choice while on my way to an open house, at which point I politely excuse myself and equally as politely ask to use the restroom, at which point I remove the lid and give them my deposit, yes the ever so classic "upper-tanker". They'll try to find the poo-origin for weeks if not months. Think of it as a tidy bowl in reverse, kind of an un-tidybowl.

Feel free to use liberally at your own discretion.

Mind you I'm kind off like decaffinated coffee, you can't tell I'm an (sub)urban terrorist by looking at me. The charcoal suit is my camoflage of choice. The short hair doesn't hurt either, but inside I'm pure evil.

-off
+of

I have to agree with Fake P, if you can truely afford a house you like and would really enjoy one there is not much point in playing the timing game.

I strongly agree too. However, be cautious about what "truely afford a house you like" means

“You will need to be a multimillionare to live in CA.”

I'm rather amazed people still push this idea, especially if they've spent any time living here. One only needs to spend a little time thinking of a "big picture" scenario to see it's akin to building a skyscraper from popsicle sticks.

“You will need to be a multimillionare to live in CA.”

If I were a multimillionare, I would not choose to live in CA. Vancouver, BC is so much more attractive: air, food, people...

Vancouver, BC is so much more attractive: air, food, people…

Just south of BC isn't too bad either. You just need to cope with those dark winters. I did when I was young, but I'm not so sure anymore; it's dark enough in Cali.

Just south of BC isn’t too bad either. You just need to cope with those dark winters. I did when I was young, but I’m not so sure anymore; it’s dark enough in Cali.

Better than Alaska, I presume. :)

A friend said that Vancouver shows what our spending on defense can be alternatively used for.

LOL

They do have more rain then here. But they also have more underground/indoor parking. With a bit of luck you do not need to walk outside at all. :)

Since it rains more, the air is more fresh.

Better than Alaska, I presume.

LOL...yeah, you couldn't pay me to live there.
Regarding the BC/Seattle area...I distinctly recall those winter days, walking to school in pitch dark and returning home under that blackness. Friends were already showing signs of seasonal depression at that age; I can only imagine the effects are worse now.
I suppose morning and midday double espressos will take off that edge...

“You will need to be a multimillionare to live in CA.”

What a moron. And how are the people that are integral parts of the service economy ('Bucks employees, gas station clerks, burritto folders, etc.) suppossed to live and work here? It is amusing how most people have zero understanding of basic economics/sociology and how a social/economic structure must be sustainable to keep from crashing down on itself.

What a moron. And how are the people that are integral parts of the service economy (’Bucks employees, gas station clerks, burritto folders, etc.) suppossed to live and work here?

Fuck'em

What do you think of Peter P’s “negative feedback loop” theory?

He is correct. This is the "behavioral finance" part of asset bubbles and has been a documented part of most all speculative manias of yore. "Behavioral finance" is by its nature very hard to quantify because this is the part of economics and finance that goes over to the sociology side of the equation. But of course the efficient markets theory is based on the idea of the "rational investor" and the very existence of asset bubbles (prices disconnected from fundamentals) proves that all investors do not behave rationally in all market conditions. The "negative feedback loop" is what has caused many a past asset bubble to crash and burn. Although I feel that declines are imminent, it remains to be seen how hard this RE market will crash. We know that real estate is far less liquid than stocks and the rest of our economy is halfway decent so we may muddle through with "only" a 20 to 25% decline, or we may have some serious pain. Stay tuned for the "really big show" kiddies! Oh, and merry f'ing Christmas and a Happy New Year! I'll leave out the "many happy returns" part (unless you are investing in energy stocks).

And how are the people that are integral parts of the service economy (’Bucks employees, gas station clerks, burritto folders, etc.) suppossed to live and work here?

_smile_ Just so.

Regardless of what happens, bust, flat line, or onward and upward, the next decade will be an interesting one, won't it?

Cheers,
prat

This is shocking and appalling…you guys are truly devoid of a conscience. Perhaps you guys should do the society a great big favor and cease to exist…:p

Oh and rampant greed aka the "REAL ESTATE BOOM" is perfectly ok? Dude, get the fuck back in your Hummer, go to Crate and Barrel, buy a spoon using your Visa HELOC card and then come back and eat my ass.

How does victimizing the sincere home sellers serve any purpose or cause any good?

Sincere home sellers? You've got to fucking be kidding me, right?

buying a house is just like bidding at an auction

No you fucking retard it is not, first off all shit for fucking brains, no one out there is "buying" fuck all, ok, well maybe they are "buying" a payment. What the greater unwashed is doing is fucking with the housing market because they, like you, think they are fucking geniuses, they are really just fucking pigs being led to the trough. And I don't feel the least bit fucking sorry for them, and yes, I derive massive amounts of pleasure out of injecting a little pain and/or drama into to their shallow over consuming lives. One can only take the swaggering ItchyMcKnobsters so long before it just really isn't funny any longer. I am no longer laughing at the over-consuming asshats, I am actively dishing out what is so fucking rightly coming to them.

PS, FUCK YOU. :)

SQT,

Thanks for asking, but no Fuchs yet. Some promising leads though, the trip to the shelter this weekend might result in a mutant orange cat. Hopefully. :)

Cat’s are nototiously unfaithful.

Whore goes with anyone,
Slut goes with anyone but you.

"If you could afford to buy, do go ahead and bid, if not, there is no use bitching about the astronomical price or cause inconvenience or damage to others. Get the point? Grow up okie? Learn to deal with the difficulties that life dishes out to you." - Fake P

I love it--"if you could afford to buy" you poor widdle wretches that have to pretend there's some sort of "bubble" because you can't afford to buy a house, awwwwww, I'm sorry for you.

In terms of dealing with what life dishes out, do you mean like using your judgement to recognize when a market is over-valued instead of blindly following the crowd, deciding to rent because when you do a simple rent vs. buy analysis you realize you are saving THOUSANDS of $$ a month to rent instead of buying into a market that looks about to crash? And in the mean time save each of those thousands of dollars a month so I can put down an even bigger downpayment or even buy real estate for cash if I so desired once the market normalizes? Or just build up a big enough portfolio that my interest and dividends pay my rent? Is that what you mean by dealing with lifes difficulties? I think I'm all set, but thanks for your help you fucking sanctimonius cocksucker.

How does victimizing the sincere home sellers serve any purpose or cause any good?

What is your purpose in life?

This is shocking and appalling…you guys are truly devoid of a conscience.

The world is full of things that are shocking and appalling... what do you expect? Come experience the dark side and you will understand. :)

And btw, I find it kind of reassuring that Peter P has a dark side.

My darkes secret: I love dark chocolate.

FakeP when a seller purposely incites a bidding war by listing a low-ball for sale price, knowing full well that they will not accept it, what say you to that? Just part of the transaction process, right??? They were f'ing with 5, 10, maybe 25 desperate, wretched, and hopeless suckers at a time in the height of the boom (note the "WERE"). SurfX is only f'ing with a single desperate wretched hopeless sucker (one at a time, that is).

"I make about the same amount as me.... Any comments? "
Hey, same with me. :-)

-->Don't forget a housing slowdown will cut into SBC business as well (both residential and business)...likely compounding layoffs. "What? No more Mortgage offices popping up that need voice/data systems setup pronto to handle all those RE transactions?"

Good to see all is well, if a bit dark, in SFBAHCC land.

Good to see all is well, if a bit dark, in SFBAHCC land.

Dark? Huh?

That sounds like fun to try, but I probably wouldn’t.

I probably won't either. I just want to watch. I am too lazy to play. :)

Is the mobile home next to the Christmas in the Park in Downtown San Jose on Market St. Maybe Santa can use it for a changing trailer, and let the reindeer drink from the pool? What a hoot.

I still hate San Jose. :evil:

Now the "Christmas in the Park" is clogging traffic. Completely counterproductive.

Just a thought... after the housing bubble bust, people will pour money into another asset class and blow another bubble.

In case that bubble is gold, price may go through the roof as all the gold *ever mined* can easily fit inside a 20 m^2 cube.

And they are not making any more gold.

I don't know if it's a leading or trailing indicator, but I was astounded to learn the names of my neighbors (lots of them) who are in default on their mortgage.

If you live in San Jose, try it: go to foreclosure.com, type in your zip code, click on the tab for "preforeclosures" and you'lll be amazed at how many folks are apparently too stressed to keep up with their mortgage payments.

Almost as astounding, the "tax lien" tab. So many people went into default in 2003 and 2004. I looked at the Santa Clara County Tax Collection website to find out what the rules are: they allow you to be deliquent on your property taxes for a long time, I think something like 5 years, and they charge a 10% penalty.

Foreclosure.com does not show the names of the "defendant" for tax liens if you're just surfing their site, I guess you have to pay money to subscribe to their service for that information... but they do provide, for free, to websurfers, the names of "defendants" for the mortgage defaults.

I don't know if it's a trailing or leading indicator, but I know that foreclosure.com has listed over 390 households in my zip code that're either behind on their mortgage, have tax liens on their property, or are in bankruptcy.

Either foreclosure.com has bogus information, or there's lots of stressed folks in my Silicon Valley neighborhood.

Wow --Surfer-X & Fake P back and having flame wars. SJ Jim, Schmend Rick, Prat, etc. all back and posting in top form.

It just doesn't get any better than this (*sniff*). Too bad I can't be there Saturday :cry:

Thanks SQT.
Imagine if more people decided to low ball w/out intent. Yeah, it's historically unorthodox, but so are many aspects of this RE mania. How many unwritten rules of financial prudence were broken on the way up? No matter that they were cast aside by financial institutions themselves, with hapless individuals in tow marching to the beat. Well on the way down, how 'bout the individuals break the "rules" and the hapless institutions follow that beat? Time for no more Mr.NiceBubblehead I guess, huh? (heh, I said "huh"). SurferX = SurferChe, on the front lines. LOL.

This also reminds me of Marinite's little ordeal with the Marin IJ newspaper (detailed on his Marin housing bubble blog).
.
.
.
.
Hey, one can dream, right?

Here's what I do not understand at all:
The stock market is usually a pretty decent leading indicator as it reflects everybody's collective bet for the next two or three years. For example, KBHome's stock broke down massively in late '89, about the time where the first signs of the housing bust appeared on the horizon.

Today we have home builder stocks, in particular ones with heavy exposure in bubble areas, reapproach their all-time highs (example: KBHome). In their quarterly earnings call, these folks stated that while their earnings won't *grow* as they did in the quarters before, they'll be fine in 2006.

At the same time, I read in this, other blogs and all over the popular news about all the seller desperation, record-high and growing inventory just before Christmas, empty houses and massive price breaks in new developments, scary mortgage credit statistics and beginning of the crunch, etc.

What's going on?
Do we suffer of selective perception here? Or is it Wall Street who does?

You could argue that the delusion of the bubble is so strong that even investment pros aren't doing any research anymore and just buying that stuff blindly, based on momentum.
You could argue that KBHome's execs don't mind lying through their teeth even though they see the crash coming, but if they lie now and the crash happens next year, what's that going to do for their credibility? I'm not sure they would take that risk just to be able to cash out a bit more.
I know the market can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent, but why would everybody ignore the well-publicized ominous signs and put their money in these stocks at what could well be a multi-year top?

Please don't get me wrong, I'm as bearish on RE as the next guy on this blog, as the fundamentals are utterly out of whack, but I don't know how to reconcile that.

Sorry but this is just too good to pass up.

Trailer has become mobile home, which evidently can become SFH, nice.

Debtor has become "home owner" and then Captain of Industry, nicer.

No defaults, payments are just looking backwards, nicest yet.

"What’s going on? Do we suffer of selective perception here? Or is it Wall Street who does?"

Neither, and nor does the stock market reflect everyone's bet over the next 2 to 3 years. The stock market is FAR more focused on the short term than you'd probably like to know--the vast majority of the active managers are looking at 2 to 3 months time horizon as oppossed to 2 to 3 years. Most of the share price movement you see on a daily basis is attributed to mutual funds tossing around significant blocks of shares. And in addition, mutual funds are constrained by their styles to invest a certain percentage of assets in a certain industry sector REGARDLESS of what the outlook for that sector may be.

Anyway, yeah we just saw a short-term bounce in homebuilder stocks--my guess is that the fund jockeys on the street are betting that the FED will end the interest rate tightening cycle soon which may keep the housing party going a little longer. Understand that these folks don't give a damn about the long term prospects of any company really--they are the first ones in and first ones out. The street punished all of the homebuilder stocks mercilously about a month and a half ago and they will most definitely do so again, you just can't time the market and know exactly when and what triggers it.

"...Actually you Tuetonic shithead, they aren’t getting ANY offers, thats what makes it so fun. Yes,

Yikes, if you're going to top-tank every Teuton here, at least get the spelling correct. ;)

yeah but you can’t eat gold and gold wont keep bad weather out.

What on earth can serve these two purpose at the same time?

Gingerbread House :)