patrick.net

Not only the federal debt ceiling problem being in the next few days or weeks, but read the below articles.

Seems like the economy is not as great as it seems or being presented by the mainstream media.

For the Dems (and the establishment), they have to cause or time an inevitable crash no later than this fall so that they have enough time to convince the public that the economy has started a recovery by summer of 2024, or they prolong the crash until after November 2024.

https://thebrunswicknews.com/news/national_news/lines-stretch-down-the-block-at-food-banks-as-costs-go-up-and-pandemic-aid/article_ad007b21-07e2-5a81-a10c-222dea0d62b5.html

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/homeless-encampments-are-exploding-in-size-all-over-america-as-rents-soar-and-evictions-surge/

WookieMan says

In order. Water. Food. Guns. Ammo.

WookieMan says

I can just kill you for your water, food, guns and ammo.

That's why we should do all we can to preserve society. The world is dystopian enough without having to worry about marauding gunmen.

Alcohol, tobacco, and firearms will be better than gold when if cannibal anarchy arrives.

WookieMan says

Next level.... beer. Joking aside if you have the first 4 you're golden. Metals, dollars, bitcoin, etc. none of it matters if the stuff hits the fan. I can just kill you for your water, food, guns and ammo.

You've forgotten the most important thing, community. No one survives on their own. Don't be a lone wolf.

WookieMan says

In order. Water. Food. Guns. Ammo.

Next level.... beer. Joking aside if you have the first 4 you're golden. Metals, dollars, bitcoin, etc. none of it matters if the stuff hits the fan. I can just kill you for your water, food, guns and ammo.

Beer brewing will be a super power. Trading a few bottles will make up a lot of shortfalls or get some small favors done.

AmericanKulak says

rading a few bottles will make up a lot of shortfalls or get some small favors done.

Or get you to be the brewmaster slave for the local warlord. Just got to keep your quota low.

Misc says

Companies trying to roll-over their outstanding debt are gonna find that they just can't pencil in anything except for losses at these new rates. Credit is simply going to dry up for a large swath of corporations.

And then they will default on their debt and the shitstorm starts

NuttBoxer says

FDIC exists to bail out the banks, not the users.

and EBT exists to make WALMART and cohorts richer

HeadSet says

Or get you to be the brewmaster slave for the local warlord. Just got to keep your quota low.

Like Jesse on Breaking Bad

komputodo says

Like Jesse on Breaking Bad

Never saw that show. Sounds interesting, though.

I had to watch it through a few times to understand it's a family show more than anything. The American family is the core of that show, and what makes it so good. That and Walt being an ego-maniac.

gabbar says

How does an individual buy treasuries?

@gabbar You can buy them directly from the US government:

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/

I just saw on news that Argentina is near default. Not surprised since I remember going back at least 20 years that Argentina's credit worthiness was at significant risk.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-10/argentina-is-going-broke-to-stall-a-full-on-currency-collapse

.

How is bankpocalypse going? Any day now and we'll be eating each other?

At least the dollar is high in fiber, crypto got nothing!

GNL says

How is bankpocalypse going? Any day now and we'll be eating each other?

If anything the country is going to need to tighten its belt just like a household does in order to overcome harsh economic times.

I don't think its going to be that drastic though, as they'll make cuts in order to ensure a more sustainable debt to income (or GDP) and keep core CPI below 4%.

I saw Wolfman at Wolf Street website post today about the Fed Funds rate versus core CPI. I say be patient as more people get laid off and businesses close. It will force down core CPI as people get more innovative and productive in order to economically survive.

In the mean time, tts still good to learn homesteading skills. Do work and make repairs instead of hiring someone to do it. Grow your own food.

We are looking at growing sweet potatoes, russelt potatoes, tomatoes, cucumbers , strawberries, etc in those 20 gallon grow bags (fabric and non woven) sold on Amazon.

Maybe we'll grow shrimp in our garage since it is warm enough year round in the Florida panhandle.

.

"Isolated Case".

Yeah right, the dollar amount of bank failures is equal - maybe it's surpassed - 2008.

AmericanKulak says

"Isolated Case".

Yeah right, the dollar amount of bank failures is equal - maybe it's surpassed - 2008.

Well, they didn't consider Lehman Brothers a bank, but it was in reality. That adds an extra $600 billion onto the 2008 failure assets (not adjusted for inflation).

I wonder if Schwab is down because of some fear associated with it being a bank (in addition to major brokerage). Its down about 52% from its all time high in January 2022.

Granted, some of this is due to relatively new competition from the new online brokerages like Robin Hood.

And there is not as many trades by retail investors compared to 2021 and 2021. I was trading a lot of options back then, and Schwab charges a fee for that (65 cents per option trade).

.

AmericanKulak says

"Isolated Case".

Yeah right, the dollar amount of bank failures is equal - maybe it's surpassed - 2008.

2023 dollar ain't the same as a 2008 dollar. The number will most certainly be bigger, but it doesn't mean it's the same thing or will be as bad. Truth is our government told us to hide in our houses for 2 years and basically do very little. Not educate our kids properly. We really have no idea the long term consequences.

I think in history this will turn into "the lost decade" or something like that. We just go sideways for years though it feels like a recession. Biggest thing in our favor is demographics. And even the Democrats are realizing that we can't rely on foreigners for manufacturing things we use. These shortages have hurt both parties. It will take a decade to correct and get things being built here again.

China is dying off and their former one child policy will easily take two decades to unravel. The only reason China was a manufacturing behemoth was because they had a large 30-50 year old male population. It's not getting replaced any time soon. Wouldn't be shocked if China goes below 1B people by 2035. They could just throw low skill labor at their manufacturing. Now they can't find the bodies to do it.

I'm not super happy short term with Biden in the White House. But you have to look at other countries. Think of a Germany. They have no resources. Hell most of Europe doesn't. Russia, USSR or whatever future variation will always be incompetent. Whether they're winning or not they're killing off men that were needed for the future of Russia.

Banks and finances aren't really the issue. You need people that can work. The major super power countries outside of the US are losing work force numbers. Japan, S. Korea, China, Russia etc. have bad demographics. I haven't looked into the ME too much in that realm, but they have money shooting out of the ground and it's generally Western contractors doing the work. A place like Dubai or Abu Dhabi is all Western designed and built with slave labor. Muslims know how to build mosques and basic living facilities. Not these huge skyscrapers and the engineering that goes into making islands. They just have the money to pay other people to do it for them.

Regardless of debt and banking issues I think the US is in a decent spot to weather the storm outside of current leadership. Which Biden will likely take at least 2 years of the next administrations time to reverse. I wouldn't expect any uptick till at least 2026 and maybe longer. Sideways. The two big bank failures this time around were in CA. The other New York. I'm not going to bank at SVB if I move to Texas or Florida. A ton of super wealthy people are leaving these places. With that goes deposits.

ad says

I wonder if Schwab is down because of some fear associated with it being a bank (in addition to major brokerage). Its down about 52% from its all time high in January 2022.

Granted, some of this is due to relatively new competition from the new online brokerages like Robin Hood.

Schwab is absorbing TDAmeritrade at the end of this month. Funny how I started with Scottrade which was absorbed by TDAmeritrade and now this.

HeadSet says

Schwab is absorbing TDAmeritrade at the end of this month. Funny how I started with Scottrade which was absorbed by TDAmeritrade and now this.

Do you get free stock trades at TDAmeritrade/Schwab? If so, how do they make money?

WookieMan says

Banks and finances aren't really the issue. You need people that can work. The major super power countries outside of the US are losing work force numbers. Japan, S. Korea, China, Russia etc. have bad demographics.

We are issuing millions of student visas to young people in 23. These young people will not leave the US. Illegal immigration through Mexico has pros if the immigrant is young through addition to labor force.

gabbar says

HeadSet says

Schwab is absorbing TDAmeritrade at the end of this month. Funny how I started with Scottrade which was absorbed by TDAmeritrade and now this.

Do you get free stock trades at TDAmeritrade/Schwab? If so, how do they make money?

Likely on float and interest on the cash waiting to be re-invested after a sale. Trades are, as you wrote, free.

NuttBoxer says

FDIC exists to bail out the banks, not the users.

So FDIC will not cover individual like me if shite hits the fan?

If there's enough of you to overwhelm the system, no. They only have the funds to cover 1% of banking deposits in the US. But in an economy built on leverage, is that really surprising.

More importantly, where do they get the money from? If I reach around to your back pocket and steal $20 from your wallet to pay you back, did you really get paid? Now what if I hold a gun to you, but only give you back 70% of that $20?

Most importantly, if dollar collapses, what will the FDIC pay you back in?

NuttBoxer says

If there's enough of you to overwhelm the system, no. They only have the funds to cover 1% of banking deposits in the US. But in an economy built on leverage, is that really surprising.

More importantly, where do they get the money from? If I reach around to your back pocket and steal $20 from your wallet to pay you back, did you really get paid? Now what if I hold a gun to you, but only give you back 70% of that $20?

Most importantly, if dollar collapses, what will the FDIC pay you back in?

Correct me if I'm wrong but when you say collapse, I think you mean that the dollar will lose all purchasing power. It doesn't mean that the dollar will suddenly disappear. So the FDIC will pay you back in dollars that have little or no purchasing power. The FDIC never implied or guaranteed the purchasing power of the dollar. As far as I know, nobody has ever guaranteed that.
Now if that did happen, what will happen to all the producers of products and food in the usa if nobody has 10,000 dollars to buy a dozen eggs? I would guess that the best move would be to shut off all exports to force the producers to sell their products only for dollars in the usa. No more foreign currency allowed. Then there be a new price discovery and back to business as usual

komputodo says

Now if that did happen, what will happen to all the producers of products and food in the usa if nobody has 10,000 dollars to buy a dozen eggs? I would guess that the best move would be to shut off all exports to force the producers to sell their products only for dollars in the usa.

NO! This has happened in many countries before.

What happens is farmers get rich, and the country goes into chaos and starvation. The farmers WILL continue to export.

The cost of growing food isn't free. You need gasoline, oil, fertilizer, etc - and this is all tied to the cost of energy. We may not be able to afford gas and electricity, but I guarantee the farmers will. They will continue to export.

richwicks says

What happens is farmers get rich, and the country goes into chaos and starvation. The farmers WILL continue to export.

If you had read my post, I said "SHUT DOWN ALL EXPORTS"

komputodo says

If you had read my post, I said "SHUT DOWN ALL EXPORTS"

You can't.

Our government doesn't work for us, you have to realize that.

The government could do a lot of things to fix and improve this country, they simply won't do that.

komputodo says

Now if that did happen, what will happen to all the producers of products and food in the usa if nobody has 10,000 dollars to buy a dozen eggs?

That did happen in Germany after WW One. The Nazis handled it by declaring the old money invalid and issuing new currency.

richwicks says

Our government doesn't work for us, you have to realize that.

That's a whole other discussion. This discussion started about nuttboxers asserion that the FDIC not having enough fiat to guarantee depositors...You should start a new thread with that subject "Our government doesn't work for us, you have to realize that."

richwicks says

Our government doesn't work for us, you have to realize that.

The government could do a lot of things to fix and improve this country, they simply won't do that.

I hear you but is there a law that says that government should work for us. And who is us? The people or the corporations. Just trying to understand this.

gabbar says

I hear you but is there a law that says that government should work for us.

So what? There's lots of laws.



It's illegal to employ illegal immigrants, or to house them. Sanctuary cities are illegal. It's illegal to use heroin, it's illegal to sell access to your office, it's called a bribe. It's illegal to entrap people and perjure yourself to convict them. It's illegal for the CIA to import and sell drugs. It's illegal to murder whistleblowers. It's illegal to put people in jail for acting as journalists.

So what?

We don't have a government. It's just a group of criminals.

If we had a government Joe Biden would be impeached by now. They won't even try. If we had a government, a real one, George W. Bush and his entire administration might have been executed, no kidding.

Our media, CONSTANTLY incites violence, constantly. That's not legal.

I'm well past the illusion that we have a government. We don't have a government. Our "government" just illegally shut down businesses, interfered in protected speech at Twitter (and Google, and Facebook), restricted our movements, and coerced us to all take a god knows what shot in our arm, all the while lying about the dangers of a MINOR disease. Our own government probably manufactured this disease.

I don't know why people think "oh, if we just elect the right people we can reform it". Maybe 20 years ago, not today. They're not going to reform. The military isn't going to do anything either.

Jesus. Typical rabbit hole. I've encountered government fraud. Guess what? I did something about it. Bitching on Patnet does nothing. DO SOMETHING!!!! For fucks sake. You post the same comments over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over. Yet you do nothing and you know it.

I get there's an ignore feature. I don't care because I want to call you out on your bull shit. You're not informing anyone of anything new. Nothing. Everyone already knows what you proclaim to be the master of and we're all fucking retarded. You've done nothing. You are the problem. Patrick started this site and called out the real estate industry. You've done nothing dude and it's getting old.

Make a damn difference or just drink and bitch about the same thing everyday. Doing nothing is better than complaining on a random CA centric forum.

komputodo says

Now if that did happen, what will happen to all the producers of products and food in the usa if nobody has 10,000 dollars to buy a dozen eggs? I would guess that the best move would be to shut off all exports to force the producers to sell their products only for dollars in the usa. No more foreign currency allowed. Then there be a new price discovery and back to business as usual

No, you'd have Communism more out in the open than we've seen it to date in this country. But not in others. As rickwicks mentioned, if you want to read that tale, just head to Venezuela, Africa, Weimer Germany. I fully expect something like this will be tried if the government still has power. I love how people make suggestions like this thinking government has ever solved problems rather than making them worse...

Looks like folks continued to pull coin outta low paying bank accounts and putting the funds into higher paying money market accounts.

Be a real shame if some banks had to sell some of their underwater securities.

We haven't even gotten to the stage where the banks have to take larger write downs on their loan portfolios.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fdic-us-bank-deposits-dropped-by-most-in-39-years-to-start-2023-144427156.html

NuttBoxer says

As rickwicks mentioned, if you want to read that tale, just head to Venezuela, Africa, Weimer Germany.

did any of those that you mentioned have the world's reserve currency and have a 100 countries holding billions of their currency? Asking for a friend. it would be better to give an example of that scenario.

WookieMan says

Banks and finances aren't really the issue. You need people that can work.

How do you pay people to work if banks and financing are collapsing from bad gambles? How do you get good employees if the value of what you're paying them is going down by the minute from banking and finance bailouts? What planet do you live on?

Not to mention things like fractional reserve banking and its abuses, etc.

I think it's unprecedented due to the fact that the last time it happened, paper was still redeemable in gold and silver(Bank of England). So the implosion will be on a scale never before seen.

DhammaStep says

How do you pay people to work if banks and financing are collapsing from bad gambles?

How did they over the last 50 years? Surely this is a joke? You don't pay people and move on. It's called business. You find new employment. The dollar was dead in the 80's. That prediction worked out well. China was going to gobble us up. Another great 80's prediction. Here we sit 40 years later with the same predictions.

The list goes on. We'll run out of oil. US$ won't be the reserve currency. None of this shit has come true. We are food, oil, water independent from any nation. You cannot attack us without getting wiped out with nukes. Land invasion is impossible. These collapse predictions are a joke at this point. They come around every time it seems rough. WE HAVE IT THE LEAST ROUGH and will for the foreseeable future.