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Can we have a non-hate mail vs fanboy thread on trading Bitcoin?


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2022 Mar 12, 4:27pm   21,585 views  189 comments

by Rin   ➕follow (10)   💰tip   ignore  

Whenever this topic comes up, it turns into political theater. Why can't we talk about a market (whether it's real or imagined stardust) w/o it turning into a cage match?

Let me make a comparison to a more mature market.

The following is a multi-year chart of the EUR vs USD, with the 50 bar exponential moving average (EMA) as the indicator on the chart. As anyone can observe, when the spot price is above the 50 EMA, there are more bullish trading opportunities (in green) than below it. And when it's below the 50 EMA, bearish events (in red) tend to be more common.







Now, contrast the above with that of BITCOIN vs USD. Whenever the 50 EMA is tested, the bearish opportunities are sparse and really don't even given bonafide short sellers much time to maneuver w/o a near term rally taking 'em out.



All and all, that's a bullish market with a high amount of sentiment on the upside. So until we see a general overall market meltdown, I'm not calling curtains on the cryptos.

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25   Cash   2022 Mar 13, 8:41pm  

FJB says
Lol... References from earthweb haha...

I know my bad but I couldn't help myself ;)
FJB says
I'm mostly interested in bitcoin. I do believe most if not all the rest are shit coin in the long (sometimes short as Tenpound noted) term. What's your deal with XRP? Isn't that globalist coin?

@FJB As far as XRP very soon it is likely to be the 1st crypto that is officially tested by fire in the US court system of law as to if XRP is a security or a currency? If things go the way it seems in the SEC vrs Ripple case and Ripple wins the case the SEC brought against Ripple the price of XRP has incredible high odds of exploding higher.

XRP ledger is already integrating through out the world and will likely be a gigantic part of the way money and value of most any asset you can name fiat, RE, commodities etc. moves across the world and settle, it is phenomenally interoperable. "Isn't that globalist coin?" probably not with the connotation of the WEF but rather as a utility out right replacing the SWIFT system ISO 20022 Repository or a light years upgrade to that system and that is the basis that I am speculating with XRP. https://ripple.com/ripplenet?source=patrick.net https://www.coinsuggest.com/bank-ripple-xrp/?source=patrick.net

The deal is when SEC brought the case the exchanges in US shut it down and stopped offering XRP the riches nation in the world from buying it where the rest of the world has not skipped a beat where many of the worlds countries and largest financial institutions has already excepted XRP as a currency. https://www.coinsuggest.com/bank-ripple-xrp/and?source=patrick.net likely the reason for the very high demand for developers in this space. https://boards.greenhouse.io/ripple?source=patrick.net https://crypto.jobs/?source=patrick.net

Currently I have 40+ stacks of different tokens that I am speculating with high odds on their utility becoming something in this space and yes there are 18500+/- coins and most after the courts settles Sec vrs Ripple lawsuit will most of them will be considered utilities...
.
26   Cash   2022 Mar 13, 8:58pm  

@FJB Also keep you ears open when you read or listen to many world financial leaders bank and federal even here in the US talk about ODL and cross border pmts with inclusion. Ripple which was developed 2nd I believe 2012 even before ETH and has developed the largest network bar none of institutions using XRP ledgers for its ODL and instant pmt system and in part why there is such a high high demand for app developers in this space.... BTW I am still stacking XRP using DEFI exchanges.
27   Cash   2022 Mar 13, 9:09pm  

FJB says
@cash I'm mostly interested in bitcorn.
Keep in mind brother both BTC and ETH could be in the SECs sight to sue due to they used ICOs in there beginnings which makes them a security not really a currency. The problem being the leaders in the SEC all were representing BTC and or ETH before, while and after working for the gov. collecting pay.
28   just_passing_through   2022 Mar 13, 9:52pm  

Cash says
XRP ledger is already integrating through out the world


I've seen the IMF shill for it big time. Dubious.
29   mostly reader   2022 Mar 13, 10:09pm  

@Rin
From what you've seen, how well does 50EMA (or any other EMA or MA) work in a situation which strongly depends on external factors? Crypto is that, kinda: there are military conflicts, a country leadership may start a holy war against crypto, etc.
30   Cash   2022 Mar 14, 10:17am  

@FJB
Not sure your location but assume it's USA and so if you would like to get a stack of XRP to speculate let me know.
If you are in US using US regulated exchanges you can't buy XRP but just wait till this case is settled and it is re-listed.
31   Cash   2022 Mar 14, 10:50am  

BREAKING: The ECON committee of the EU Parliament just voted against the de-facto POW-ban: 32 against, 24 in favor.
https://coin.fyi/news/bitcoin/the-voting-concluded-the-eu-has-voted-against-the-pow-ban-tdzcwv?source=patrick.net
32   Rin   2022 Mar 14, 11:59am  

mostly reader says
@Rin
From what you've seen, how well does 50EMA (or any other EMA or MA) work in a situation which strongly depends on external factors? Crypto is that, kinda: there are military conflicts, a country leadership may start a holy war against crypto, etc.


Here's the thing, the 50 EMA, using long term price bars, like one candlestick per week (or month), gives the general trend of the market. And yes, external factors can wreck havoc which is why the Zimbabwe dollar is not highly active on the forex.

Let me illustrate the political situation with Hong Kong with its chart ...



As anyone can tell, the above is highly volatile & one could even say, unstable. Yet, using the long term 50 EMA, one can see the bullish vs bearish zones despite the fact that it's rough territory & thus, I don't expect to find many buy 'n hold types there except for those who're forced to live in Hong Kong & spend money there.

And I'm guessing that short term traders are very keen on having hard stop-losses when their position reverses.

FYI, I don't know of anyone who trades it.
33   Zak   2022 Mar 14, 9:39pm  

Rin says
Well, I was one of the starting junior partners at a hedge fund


My take on this: you got your hands on other people's money, and made a commission on the biggest fed supported bull market in the history of the world, and you could have slept and mirrored VOO and been up how many percent since 2008? AND someone paid you commission to do so?

Hmm, so it sounds like you were good at finding an in to a hedge fund that can market to those willing to pay a commission. I get it.. I watched wolf of wall street. I know there are sheep to be shorn... Now that you've shown your colors as a marketing frontman to financial leeches, how are we supposed to trust you MORE that bitcoin isn't another of your greed is good cons? Especially since you ignore every sound long term asset purchase indicator in your promotion of it? Your answer is CHART ANALYSIS!??!?!?!?

BWAHAHAHAAHAHAAHAHA
34   Rin   2022 Mar 15, 2:21am  

Zak says
how are we supposed to trust you


Because I told most ppl to simply buy tobacco stocks w/ DRIP ...

https://patrick.net/post/1343674?offset=0#comment-1821891

Let me illustrate that with a dividend reinvestment calculator using the worst years for stocks, 2007 to 2010 for a $10K investment of Altria ...



So there you have it. If you don't want to swing trade crypto, then stick with tobacco for all of the time.
35   Rin   2022 Mar 15, 12:54pm  

Rin says
So there you have it. If you don't want to swing trade crypto, then stick with tobacco for all of the time.


With that stated, using the DRIPs with Proctor & Gamble or Exxon-Mobil, one is buying blue chips at a market peak. In other words, they're too expensive.

Aside from Altria, British-American Tobacco, & Rio Tinto, I'm only using the dividend stream from the overpriced blue chips for the swing trade in bitcoin. This is money which will return automatically to my account, ever year, for as long as I own those equities.
36   Cash   2022 Mar 15, 4:51pm  

Visa seeks new college grads for Crypto Development Program
https://cointelegraph.com/news/visa-seeks-new-college-grads-for-crypto-development-program?source=patrick.net
Successful candidates will, among many other tasks, "define Visa’s crypto strategy and identify new product opportunities."

Money Money Money ----- MONEY!!!
37   Rin   2022 Mar 15, 5:22pm  

Cash says
Visa seeks new college grads for Crypto Development Program


Whenever I hear of this type of stuff, I go back to my 'buy 'n hold' tobacco stocks pitch because if you can't make money on smokers then you're never going to make money doing anything else.

This program sounds like a way of grinding promising young interns into an experimental track with only a glimmer of a full time gig but for the most part, spit 'em out with 1.5 years of Visa International on their resume.
38   Cash   2022 Mar 15, 5:44pm  

Rin says
Whenever I hear of this type of stuff, I go back to my 'buy 'n hold' tobacco stocks pitch because if you can't make money on smokers then you're never going to make money doing anything else.

This program sounds like a way of grinding promising young interns into an experimental track with only a glimmer of a full time gig but for the most part, spit 'em out with 1.5 years of Visa International on their resume.

And do you know what? I don't give a flying fuck if that's the case it's on them... Any more lots of programming jobs are short term and not only that don't they like to use India cheap educated labor?
39   Cash   2022 Mar 15, 5:48pm  

Rin says
Whenever I hear of this type of stuff, I go back to my 'buy 'n hold' tobacco stocks pitch because if you can't make money on smokers then you're never going to make money doing anything else.

It's all good you have the right to look at it anyway you wish...
40   Cash   2022 Mar 15, 5:52pm  

And like I totally proved there is a big demand all over the world!!!
https://crypto.jobs/?source=patrick.net Jobs Galore, lots of them so high demand will = Money Money Money ----- MONEY!!!
41   mostly reader   2022 Mar 15, 6:09pm  

Rin says
Now, contrast the above with that of BITCOIN vs USD.
It seems that buying when 50 EMA is tested would've been exactly the right thing to do. All the "past performance is not an indicator of future performance" provisions apply, but the accuracy is uncanny.
42   Rin   2022 Mar 15, 6:27pm  

mostly reader says
All the "past performance is not an indicator of future performance" provisions apply, but the accuracy is uncanny.


I believe a lot of that is that of market structure. Right now, as long as the Rus2K & EUR/USD don't collapse and then we don't see a re-play of the 2008 crash across all markets, the current bullishness on the Bitcoin will hold out to re-test its channel.

Now, given the fact that both the Rus2K & EUR/USD are continually re-testing their respective lows, perhaps this could happen. In other words, if the XBTF drops from the congestion zone between 35 and 40, and into the lower 20s (along with Rus2K & EUR/USD), then basically, sell all your non-tobacco blue chips (i.e. PG, XOM, ED, MMM, etc) and wait for the crash.
43   mostly reader   2022 Mar 15, 6:44pm  

Why do Rus2K & EUR/USD warrant special attention? Because they were also a tell in 2008?
45   Cash   2022 Mar 15, 7:22pm  

Mexican billionaire eyes bitcoin mining with geothermal energy
https://www.thinkgeoenergy.com/mexican-billionaire-eyes-bitcoin-mining-with-geothermal-energy/?source=patrick.net
Utilising power generated by the geothermal power plant of Domo San Pedro in Mexico, billionaire Ricardo Salinas plans to mine Bitcoins in Mexico.
46   mostly reader   2022 Mar 15, 7:35pm  

Rin says
mostly reader says
Why do Rus2K & EUR/USD warrant special attention?


Read this ...

https://patrick.net/post/1343403/2022-01-23-rin-s-trader-friend-s-market-crash-indi
Got it, thanks. About Russ, that is. Also makes it worth looking into - whether the opposite discrepancy, when smaller players outperform behemoths, could be a tell for good things to come.
What about EUR/USD, why does that matter? It seems instinctively true that "strong USD = good", but when crisis occurs it usually occurs in EUR countries too. That makes it a bit more difficult to explain the correlation.
47   Rin   2022 Mar 16, 11:21am  

mostly reader says
EUR/USD


Usually, it's the confluence of the EUR/USD & GBP/USD (with a greater weighing towards the EUR as its the higher volume on the forex) making newer multi-year lows than during bullish highs of the major US markets.

And continental Europe's problems don't necessarily affect Britain at the same time & the USD strengthening effect is over longer periods of time, not around singular events like the Crimean/Ukraine war.

So right now, the EUR is close to doing it while the GBP is holding up above its multi-year low. All and all, with the Fed's latest hike, we'll see how this pans out in the months ahead.
48   Rin   2022 Mar 16, 1:09pm  

One more time ... if the markets uniformly collapse, do not sell your holdings of Altria, British-American Tobacco, & Rio Tinto.

Those stocks give great dividends and during a meltdown, where all stock prices fall, your dividend payouts will double & then, you'll have a lot more re-invested equities under your belt.

This is the opposite advice for overpriced blue chips where yes, you should sell before the meltdown because you'll lose all of your cap gains.

Let me give you an example, here's my local power company, Eversource (ES) ...



It gives a 3% dividend but here's the issue ... it never experienced a single price reduction/fluctuation for the longest period of time. It's a perma-bull, always above the 50 MA regardless. So here's the story, when the market crashes, I'll doubt that New Englanders won't need power and thus, Eversource will be a 8-10% dividend stock giving one a retirement income with little chance of going out of business.

And others, like Proctor & Gamble, have had much higher price climbs than Eversource. At least ES is slowing down.

49   Cash   2022 Mar 20, 5:46am  

Which big companies use blockchain and crypto?
https://cryptonews.net/news/blokcheyn/3902561/?source=patrick.net
In addition, 55 of the world’s top 100 banks by volume of assets under management have invested in blockchain companies, as have 36 of the world’s top 100 listed companies.
These include Alphabet (formerly Google), Microsoft, Samsung, Intel, PayPal, Goldman Sachs, Mastercard and Visa, to name but the best known.

So we can conclude fuck BBB
https://patrick.net/post/1336460/2020-11-10-bitcoin-misinformation#last
50   Rin   2022 Mar 22, 1:17pm  

Using last year's chart, we're still in the price congestion zone & hoping for a breakout above it ...

51   Rin   2022 Mar 24, 2:58pm  

Ok, this is the first week where bitcoin closed above the price congestion area (for the sell off period of late 2021 to early 2022) ...



Keeping an eye on the Rus2K "holding its ground", as a barometer for the general market meltdown (or not), it's time for bitcoin to either go big or go home.
52   theoakman   2022 Mar 27, 8:40pm  

big jump today, it hit 46k
53   Cash   2022 Mar 28, 7:48am  

Rin says
it's time for bitcoin to either go big or go home.

Nope, just more sideways action for commodities, crypto and possibly the equities market imo. Until the USD index dumps and it don't look like much of a chance of that atm
the banks and institutions are still raiding the coffers yet needing USDs to unwind and capture their ill begotten gains and rich's. Markets are way more about supply chain issues then the inflation/weak USD theory.

54   Cash   2022 Mar 28, 8:49am  

BTW there are many way better speculation plays in crypro then BTC and ETH plays.
55   PeopleUnited   2022 Mar 28, 10:16am  

Cash says
BTW there are many way better speculation plays in crypro then BTC and ETH plays.

For example?
56   WookieMan   2022 Mar 28, 11:32am  

PeopleUnited says
Cash says
BTW there are many way better speculation plays in crypro then BTC and ETH plays.

For example?

Eh... run a business and print your own money and use the tax structure to your benefit. Crypto is not the way to riches. I've been staying out of these threads, but this is fact. You'll make more money in RE or running a business. I don't know a single 7+ figure wealth person not doing real estate or running a business AND doing crypto. Stock traders (which crypto is) generally are broke and talk a big game but aren't actually wealthy and it can dry up at any moment. People need housing, goods and services. Crypto does none of that. Not hating, just factual statements. Someone can tell me if I'm wrong. And no, I don't buy metals, so this isn't a physical asset comment.

Invest in things people NEED. I dislike Buffet as a person, but his strategy is mostly sound. If you need goods, buy BNSF. People need food and drink. Buy large amounts of companies that provide that or transport it.
57   Cash   2022 Mar 28, 12:36pm  

WookieMan says
Not hating, just factual statements.

Why lie? All you do is hate on crypto with your very shallow worthless opinion over and over again coming from left field with nothing new or beneficial to this topic.
This being way more factual then anything you have said about crypto.
58   Cash   2022 Mar 28, 12:44pm  

PeopleUnited says
For example?

Some of my favorites are $XRP $HBAR $XDC $SOL $LINK $XLM $ADA $ALGO $VET $LRC to name a few.
Take a note of their price today and come back towards the end of the year some will 10x and perhaps much more and some will hardly
move+/-. Remember the point of my post was speculating nothing more nothing less.
59   Onvacation   2022 Mar 28, 12:52pm  

Cash says
Remember the point of my post was speculating nothing more nothing less.

AKA - Gambling that some greater fool will buy your virtual tokens.
60   Cash   2022 Mar 28, 12:55pm  

@ PeopleUnited So after wookie stepped in his own dog shit like every time he approaches this subject do you feel saved? Cause you know that is his intentions, to save you and everyone from themselves, and warn patnet'rs not to get involved and educate themselves of crypto the devils workshop.
61   Cash   2022 Mar 28, 1:40pm  

Grayscale Threatens Legal Action if SEC Rejects Bitcoin ETF Conversion Bid
Grayscale has been encouraging investors to submit comments, even creating an education page and email form on its website.
“This is a really, really important part of the process,” Sonnenshein said.
“GBTC today is owned by investors in all 50 states, and there’s actually now over 800,000 accounts in the US all waiting patiently to have it converted into an ETF.”
https://blockworks.co/grayscale-threatens-legal-action-if-sec-rejects-bitcoin-etf-conversion-bid/?source=patrick.net

Money Money Money MONEY!!!
BOOM! BOOM! BOOM!
62   Cash   2022 Mar 28, 1:48pm  

Onvacation says
AKA - Gambling that some greater fool will buy your virtual tokens

LIKE all markets Speculative!!! ask the the gold bugs, who pumped gold and was sure that speculation would be 5k 10k 50k year after year..
I have gold, silver etc. and like owning it, but still waiting 10yrs later for this quick "get rich scheme" end of the world prices lmao ...
Now those who speculated 10yrs ago on BTC 900,000%+/- since origination.
63   Cash   2022 Mar 28, 1:58pm  

Strongest markets today "Safe Money"
USD
JPY
CHF
Crypto...

While equities, metals and oil muddle although they will be popping at some point, but not until the USD actually rolls over.
64   Cash   2022 Mar 28, 2:29pm  

Here is a token project really test case in it's development which I have been supporting.
Including sharing this link which is not my own but someone I hope to help https://minepi.com/cash007
This project provides coins by you mining on your phone and has no effects on your power discharge
and uses net zero in power. I also run a node on my PC which has little or no effect to my processing power.

The Pi developers approach has been different then what I have seen across the space, instead of developing a
and selling a token ICO style with all the promises of utility and accomplishments at a later date which most fail or will fail.

The Pi developers 1st have built a community 33 million strong simply earning tokens with their phones and are actively working
with developers of all sorts so when Pi does go Mainnet it has prominent use case in many areas.

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