A Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan?????

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A Chinese Invasion Of Taiwan?????

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2021 Apr 10, 3:58am 2,279 views 79 comments

by ohomen171 ➕follow (2) 💰tip ignore

Elena has been concerned as of late about mainland China forcefully retaking Taiwan. Before we get into the military challenges of such an action, let us look at the geopolitical considerations. The US and Chinese economies are intertwined to a great extent. If one party pulled away, their economy would collapse. The world economy would follow. Let us look at the special case of Taiwan and mainland China. Taiwan provides the mainland with a lot of FDI-foreign direct investment. When a Chinese company has a desperate need for skilled workers, the first place that they look is Taiwan. There is a huge volume of trade between the mainland and Taiwan. A military action would destroy all this economic activity.
Now let us look at an actual military operation where the Chinese military attempts to invade Taiwan. Ask the Nazis and the US Navy; it is very hard to invade an island. Nazi Germany could not even mount an invasion to overpower the UK. The US Navy struggled with all its island invasions in World War II. To invade an island, you need absolute air and naval superiority. Mainland China has an impressive military with large numbers. They would face US forces, Taiwan forces, and possible Japanese forces. They would not have absolute control of the skies and the sea. The Chinese military could not afford to inflict too much damage on Taiwan for the economic reasons cited above. They would also be sensitive to world public opinion.
In the end of the day, their only route to reclaiming what they see is rightfully theirs is "winning through intimidation." They will have to use psychology to intimate all opponents. The Japanese did this brilliantly in Singapore at the start of World War II.

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Patrick 2021 Oct 14, 10:33pm

From The Wealth of Nations:

The canton of Berne derives a considerable revenue by lending a part of its treasure to foreign states; that is, by placing it in the public funds of the different indebted nations of Europe, chiefly in those of France and England. The security of this revenue must depend, first, upon the security of the funds in which it is placed, or upon the good faith of the government which has the management of them; and, secondly, upon the certainty or probability of the continuance of peace with the debtor nation. In the case of a war, the very first act of hostility, on the part of the debtor nation, might be the forfeiture of the funds of its creditor.

So if China goes to war with the US, the very first act of the US would be to nullify our debts to China.

steverbeaver 2021 Oct 15, 12:15am

Attacking Taiwan would spell death for the mainland government. CCP knows this so they don't, rather just bide time and play under-handed games until hopefully the attack models are reliable. A less expensive approach is to buy influence which they seem to be doing fairly well.

richwicks 2021 Oct 15, 12:35am

Patrick says

So if China goes to war with the US, the very first act of the US would be to nullify our debts to China.

It's a pittance now. China has divested from the treasuries quite some time ago.

I swear to fucking god, the democrats and the entire oligarchy has sold us out to China, and it's not just the democrats, but Mitt Romney, John McCain (the "war hero"), the Bush's, etc.

There isn't anybody in power that gives a fuck about the future of this nation remaining a democratic state. They've all betrayed the nation.

60 Misc 2021 Oct 15, 1:23am

China has slightly more than $1 trillion of US treasuries. Foreign governments do not voluntarily divest themselves of treasuries (except the case of Venezuela and that didn't work out so well for them). They have been bleeding treasuries paying for imports and to keep their currency at the level it is.

China is in a big bind right now. Its corporations have borrowed vast amounts of debt denominated in US dollars. With their property developers defaulting it has hit other issuers as well. Right now it doesn't look like they are going to be able to roll over that US denominated debt as US lenders have balked on China corporations. Other nations are also declining to lend to China's corporations. Since the property developers are defaulting on trillions of dollars worth of yuan, the CCP can either let the investors take the losses (thus ending China's ponzi scheme economy) or it can take the losses onto its central bank's balance sheet. If it socializes the losses its currency gets hammered.

It only has a little over $1 trillion in US treasuries to try to stablize its currency and provide support for its corporations with US denominated debt.

This is gonna leave a mark.

61 Misc 2021 Oct 15, 2:22am

I mean it's gonna leave a mark on China.

I will put a guesstimate at 25% of their economy just disappeared.

That's gonna be an unemployment problem the likes of which ain't ever happened before.

HeadSet 2021 Oct 15, 7:19am

Patrick says

So if China goes to war with the US, the very first act of the US would be to nullify our debts to China.

Not when the President and much of Congress is bribed or compromised.

Patrick 2021 Oct 15, 12:41pm

Misc says

Foreign governments do not voluntarily divest themselves of treasuries (except the case of Venezuela and that didn't work out so well for them).

Did Venezuela sell all their US Treasury bonds?

64 Misc 2021 Oct 17, 3:24am

Patrick says

Misc says
Foreign governments do not voluntarily divest themselves of treasuries (except the case of Venezuela and that didn't work out so well for them).

Did Venezuela sell all their US Treasury bonds?

Yes they did. Instead of treasuries held as reserves for their central bank, they went with gold. There they were with the largest proven oil reserves in the world, literally tons of gold ... but no consumer goods. The leaders of Venezuela smuggled some huge amounts of gold out of the country.

I think they are still importing fuel because things are just that fucked up.

Patrick 2022 Jan 25, 9:49pm

https://notthebee.com/article/39-chinese-warplanes-just-flew-into-taiwans-air-defense-zone-and-taiwan-scrambled-fighter-jets-in-response?source=patrick.net

Now that we have the weakest president ever, the Chinese rightly calculate that it's a good time to invade Taiwan, and Russia rightly calculates that it's a good time to invade Ukraine.

Biden has already alienated the armed forces with his jab mandate, and undermined military morale. He even had a Navy boat named after a well-known gay. This is not good. The boat name was not about civil rights. An acquired vice is not an inherent identity. It is the very opposite of inspiring to soldiers.

This cannot end well for America.

just_passing_through 2022 Jan 25, 9:57pm

It's going to happen and all we'll do about it is sanctions. I'm okay with that with regard to Ukraine (Europe needs to keep after their own back yard for fuck sakes finally) but Taiwan is going to be a very big problem for the tech industry.

Russia has been stockpiling gold, have surpluses and are basically ready for this in that sanctions won't do shit. They accelerated the gold purchases after Obama overthrew Ukraine. I don't think China will try to take Taiwan until they are (maybe already are for all I know) in the same financial position and after the covid olympics.

komputodo 2022 Jan 25, 10:08pm

Blue says

It takes minimum 5 yrs to see production if it ever happens.

Then I think they better start today. When is the best time to plant a tree? 20 yrs ago......the second best?... today

komputodo 2022 Jan 25, 10:08pm

FJB says

sanctions.

LOL

69 Misc 2022 Jan 25, 10:10pm

Why would China invade Taiwan?

They already get anything they want from Taiwan through trade. The Chinese are hiring the best chip engineers away from Taiwan by the old fashioned way of paying them more. The Chinese can play the long game of corrupting the Taiwanese government officials. There is nothing to gain by militarily invading them except as something for a bunch of unemployed construction workers to do,

If they militarily tried to grab Taiwan, and the US simply stood by; Japan and South Korea would immediately stockpile so many nukes on hair triggers they would get what they get.

komputodo 2022 Jan 25, 10:10pm

FJB says

Russia has been stockpiling gold, have surpluses and are basically ready for this in that sanctions won't do shit.

I heard that only stupid people buy gold. They should be loading up on bitcoin, NFT's, and TSLA stock

AmericanKulak 2022 Jan 25, 10:26pm

Ceffer says

FuckCCP89 says
Who cares about Taiwan?

Elena.

i'm glad Elena isn't my muse. I'm sappy enough.

SURPRISE PLOT TWIST: Elena turns out to be Rin's Real Doll.

just_passing_through 2022 Jan 25, 10:29pm

komputodo says

FJB says
sanctions.

LOL

LOL is right!

just_passing_through 2022 Jan 25, 10:30pm

Misc says

Why would China invade Taiwan?

If not only for the fabs, probably more importantly .. much more importantly a blue water navy.

just_passing_through 2022 Jan 25, 10:32pm

Misc says

If they militarily tried to grab Taiwan, and the US simply stood by; Japan and South Korea would immediately stockpile so many nukes on hair triggers they would get what they get.

I think it may be too late for this but you're speaking my language.

just_passing_through 2022 Jan 25, 10:33pm

komputodo says