patrick.net

My house in Socal appreciated by 100k within the last 6 month. Fuckin lol.

Bitcoin says

My house in Socal appreciated by 100k within the last 6 month. Fuckin lol.

Apr 4, 2020 Sold for 1.66M
Apr 20,2021 Sold for 2.3M

640k appreciation in one year. Best business idea ever.
US is fucked up.

Patrick says

SunnyvaleCA says

Out here in silicon valley it seems that people are leaving the hell-hole cities (San Francisco in particular) and moving to the surrounding suburbs. Facebook, Google, and Apple are actually in the suburbs, so it's not like you need to move to the city so you can walk to the office.

It has come full circle. When I moved out here in 1997, tech workers complained that the suburbs were boring, so over the years the companies opened offices in SF to cater to them. But now that SF is becoming an open air toilet, the workers see that the suburbs are not so bad after all.

I think SF is opportunity to buy. This built up city is just waiting for conservative mayor to show up as the things are going to get worse.
https://www.nber.org/digest/jan03/what-reduced-crime-new-york-city
Many attribute New York's crime reduction to specific "get-tough" policies carried out by former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani's administration. The most prominent of his policy changes was the aggressive policing of lower-level crimes, a policy which has been dubbed the "broken windows" approach to law enforcement. In this view, small disorders lead to larger ones and perhaps even to crime. As Mr. Guiliani told the press in 1998, "Obviously murder and graffiti are two vastly different crimes. But they are part of the same continuum, and a climate that tolerates one is more likely to tolerate the other."

In Carrots, Sticks and Broken Windows (NBER Working Paper No. 9061), co-authors Hope Corman and Naci Mocan find that the "broken windows" approach does not deter as much crime as some advocates argue, but it does have an effect, particularly on robbery and motor vehicle theft. They use misdemeanor arrests as a measure of broken windows policing.

Yay!

I HOUSE thread!

Me likey!

I ain't buying shit in CA. Ever.

Just for the record.

Tenpoundbass says

One thing the Cop shooting of that Little Miss McStabbie showed, that the new hood is those new big development cul-de-sacs.

That was Obama's plan, and I believe Biden just reversed Trump's orders to stop it.

Expect 4-story Mini-Hood Projects in every suburb. Except the ex-urb Greenbelt, nobody will be building HUD Homes in Williston or Chevy Chase or Greenwich

Looking at that smoke again without understanding what causes these fires eh? They're called central banks + fiat paper = endless inflation.

We all know those houses aren't worth a quarter of asking, but no one wants to examine how much money we're losing through the largest hidden tax in existence, inflation.

And yes, please tell me your stories of how your fixed payments will be easy to make, forgetting that you still have to buy FOOD, and pay UTILITIES with salaries that are falling further behind by the second. Oh yeah, and PROPERTY TAX.

You don't own shit if you still have to pay someone for it. You're not rich if you make a million a year, but milk costs $50k. There is no free MONEY, government NEVER makes anything better. Regulations DO NOT guarantee safety, and laws NEVER EVER = morality.

Wait, more coming... Jewish and Black rights groups are the MOST racist people on the planet. Women will never be as strong as men genetically. A white man who supports BLM is a slave, and particularly stupid. A man who turns his dick into a hotdog bun, cross-dresses, and act effeminate is still a man, just a fucking whipped, pathetic, mutilated one. If you need a shot, pill, or surgery you are sick, not healthy, and need to examine what the fuck you did to your immune system, instead of being a whining asshole complaining about genetics. Or go to euthanize yourself, since you obviously have no desire to maintain a life worth living.

If you take on debt(excepting business plans and buying when it makes sense), you are greedy, lazy, and deserve the government dependency your get-rich-quick fuckery has doomed you to.

If you protest, but make no personal changes, you're a hypocrite. If you like following rules so you can say what a good person you are, and how bad everyone else is, you're an even bigger hypocrite, and likely a Covidite. Wear 10 masks, take ALL the jabs, fucking die already, and rid us of our self-serving, holier-than-thou bullshit.

Dozens camp overnight for chance to buy $1.2 million Bay Area townhouses
Is this what they were buying?
2 bed/ 3 bath, 1268 sq.ft.
Yikes, anyone want to do the Price to Rent ratio?

EBGuy says

Dozens camp overnight for chance to buy $1.2 million Bay Area townhouses
Is this what they were buying?
2 bed/ 3 bath, 1268 sq.ft.
Yikes, anyone want to do the Price to Rent ratio?

I think you are correct — your zillow link matches the sfgate story. I visited that complex a few months ago just for fun.

They also have a bunch of single family homes for $2MM+ that overlook the "scenic" Lawrence Expressway (50 to 60 MPH and 4 lanes of traffic in each direction). The townhouses were better with respect to noise. The interiors are modern and quite nice, which they darn well should for that kind of cash.

I imagine that if the cower-in-place ever ends, the traffic there will be hilariously bad. In addition to the huge complex emptying out onto a modest size side street, there's a super-busy Costco which, alone, can back traffic up onto the exit lane of Lawrence as cars can't fit into the enormous parking lot until someone leaves. At least the Costco gas station isn't a 30 minute wait any more: it's been expanded to 6 islands with 6 pumps each.

@nuttboxer
Epic rant dude!

NuttBoxer says

you still have to buy FOOD, and pay UTILITIES with salaries that are falling further behind by the second. Oh yeah, and PROPERTY TAX.

This may change, but I don't see the inflation in my grocery basket.

I have a huge spread sheet I maintain every price paid, for every item, at every store, from my grocery and various sundry stuff (like cleaning supplies, batteries, etc.) going back to Q4 of 2017.

I updated it two days ago. Prices on 537 item-pairs from 13 different retailers, always comparing same-store / same-item prices. Careful attention to sizes to account for any hedonic games to disguise Stealth Inflation with sh*t like the Incredibly Shrinking Candy Bar.

As of April the inflation rate annualized is 0.65%, ie 1.0065 mulitplier. You can Snark on me about my calculation method (arithmetic, not geometric) (I abhor the freaking Yuppie-Talk misused word methology). I have played around with the calculation method and it doesn't materially impact the overall number. The arithmetic number is easier for my simpleton method to maintain.

Maybe this will change but it hasn't yet.

Similarly, I've maintained a log of every gallon of 87 octane fuel I've bought going back to May 15, 2006. I shared this on a different comment in a different thread. On May 15, 2006 price paid: $3.31 per gallon. This month, $3.35 per gallon,

EBGuy says

hat they were buying?
2 bed/ 3 bath, 1268 sq.ft.
Yikes, anyone want to do the Price to Rent ratio?

Probably people looking to flip.

I wonder how these folks will handle getting foreclosed?

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/04/massive-brawl-breaks-mississippi-seafood-restaurant-chairs-glasses-fists-go-flying-video/

farmer2021 says

Bitcoin says

My house in Socal appreciated by 100k within the last 6 month. Fuckin lol.

Apr 4, 2020 Sold for 1.66M
Apr 20,2021 Sold for 2.3M

640k appreciation in one year. Best business idea ever.
US is fucked up.

@farmer2021
640k profit in the 1-2M range is nuts. Where is this? Was that your house?

HunterTits says

Tenpoundbass says

I wonder how these folks will handle getting foreclosed?

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/04/massive-brawl-breaks-mississippi-seafood-restaurant-chairs-glasses-fists-go-flying-video/

I dont mind when people of color hit each other. have at it. At the end the scapegoat is the bad, white man of course.

Bitcoin says

farmer2021 says

Bitcoin says

My house in Socal appreciated by 100k within the last 6 month. Fuckin lol.

Apr 4, 2020 Sold for 1.66M
Apr 20,2021 Sold for 2.3M

640k appreciation in one year. Best business idea ever.
US is fucked up.

@farmer2021
640k profit in the 1-2M range is nuts. Where is this? Was that your house?

No but I have similar property in general area and it is even more over inflated.
US housing prices sucks.
It is becoming like Asian cities where only rich can afford houses.

Whatever it is its not local to CA. Bought here at 440k and now a half a year later I could get 550k maybe with no contingency and over asking. My house in CA is already up about 100k.

farmer2021 says

It is becoming like Asian cities where only rich can afford houses.

yes...and europe....

Bitcoin says

farmer2021 says

It is becoming like Asian cities where only rich can afford houses.

yes...and europe....

And they say "socialism" is equalizer, Such a misnomer.
Communist is even bigger equalizer.. Everyone is equally poor and worry more about staying alive by keeping mouth shut.

B.A.C.A.H. says

This may change, but I don't see the inflation in my grocery basket.

I don't think inflation shows up across the board until the final tailspin. Personally, it seems like a hundred bucks doesn't get me what it used to, but that's just my opinion. And I'm sure we can both agree that printing trillions of dollars does not a sound medium exchange, create.

Tenpoundbass says

I wonder how these folks will handle getting foreclosed?

Foreclosed? Joe&Hoe will put a forever emergency moratorium on foreclosures. Just wait for Indian strain of covid to land on our shores, giving them a perfect pretext.

Earlier this year, Governor Gavin Newsom today signed legislation to extend the state's landmark eviction moratorium through June 30, 2021. There's got to be some follow on effect at some point. Wonder if some landlords will be driven to foreclosure?

Is housing slowing back down? Here's what I'm seeing...

1) In my area - ATL suburbs, prices have almost double in the last 5 years. If the home is priced in the realm of reality, it will sell in a weekend. What I am seeing though, are sellers asking beyond the realm of reality, and those are definitely sitting.

2) I've had my eyes on homes in a few zip codes in Florida, for months, everything was pending or contingent for months. Now I'm starting to see properties sit significantly longer - and much more seems to becoming available.

Wondering if this is the top? And all the panic covid buying has dried up, especially with the prices going to high.

joshuatrio says

Wondering if this is the top? And all the panic covid buying has dried up, especially with the prices going to high.

God I hope so

Just wait until Xi Biden negates $50k of student loans per student. That'll add millions of new potential buyers more than willing to go massively into debt to buy a house.

Who knows maybe Xi Biden will then cancel mortgage debt as well.

What could go wrong?

neighborhood house.....couple bought in March, never moved in and put back on the market in April for 200k more!! It shows pending.....adjacent neighbor said there was a bidding war. Cant wait to see the final price on it.
there is no inventory in my area. I dont think I would sell my house, not even if someone offers me 500k over market value.
And where else would I even go? Its been going up everywhere in SoCal and my family loves it here.

Xi Biden could also add a wealth tax. even a small, modest tax (by communist standards) could shoot the prices of all equity assets (even housing) into the affordable range for the newly debt liberated millennials.

Alt coin Hodlrs would freak worse than the Prop 13ers.

Insanity:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Ramon/485-Bridle-Ct-94582/home/17166492
Aug 17, 2009 Sold (MLS) (Sold) $1,275,000
Listed : $2,499,000
Sold : $2,800,000

This family made cool $138k every year without any real work, of which $45k every year was tax free.
Best job ever. Buy a house, live in it and then sell.
A person with US median income:
31K minus some taxes.
---------- A living, hard working human being will never catch up to someone living in above house doing nothing.. You see whats wrong with US?-----------
Please always spare some dollars for fellow hard working American when you get some services if you are lucky like above.(I always do).


Obama lackey should have instead bought a house in bay area:
Former Obama White House Adviser Charged With Stealing Over $200,000 From Charter School Chain He Founded

@patrick
You should start warning people again on "Housing bubble". This looks even bigger than last one.

farmer2021 says

Aug 17, 2009 Sold (MLS) (Sold) $1,275,000
Listed : $2,499,000
Sold : $2,800,000

Do the math, homie. CAGR = (ln(2.8/1.275))/12 = 6.5%.

How much did the stock market go up in those 12 years? With no property tax, no insurance cost, no repair bills, no interest payments, no peer pressure to have nice looking expensive cars in driveway, no peer pressure on kids for every extra club membership, etc.

B.A.C.A.H. says

farmer2021 says

Aug 17, 2009 Sold (MLS) (Sold) $1,275,000
Listed : $2,499,000
Sold : $2,800,000

Do the math, homie. CAGR = (ln(2.8/1.275))/12 = 6.5%.

How much did the stock market go up in those 12 years? With no property tax, no insurance cost, no repair bills, no interest payments, no peer pressure to have nice looking expensive cars in driveway, no peer pressure on kids for every extra club membership, etc.

Here is the calculation:
275k down.
1M @ 3.5% = 35k interest.
~20k property tax.
~2.5k insurance.
New house. Little maintenance needed.
~5k a year.
~62K a year total cost.
Rental estimate: 5500*12 = 66000

Living is wash.

Return:
275k(Investment) -> 1425k(Gain-100K selling cost) -> 11 years.
~16% return every year.
(It will reach higher when you add $500k return has no tax for high income family)

Housing should never appreciate like stocks.
It is core of lot of our financial problems.
This is how asset rich fat cats keep getting wealthier and labor ... not getting ahead.

farmer2021 says

275k(Investment) -> 1425k(Gain-100K selling cost) -> 11 years.
~16% return every year.
(It will reach higher when you add $500k return has no tax for high income family)

farmer,

the return is a negative cash flow every year, till they sell and realize the gain.

Do you live in the region? Just asking.

Thanks Zillow, but WTF? (but, I'm cool ... keep it coming!)

Hey! Anyone out there interested in a $2.25MM shack? Walking distance to Apple's 2 main campi. I know a great place you can rent a bulldozer, although it might be cheaper and more fun to call up the local BLM or Antifa chapter to orchestrate some "property improvement."

farmer2021 says

I think SF is opportunity to buy. This built up city is just waiting for conservative mayor to show up as the things are going to get worse.

That's exactly what people were saying of Detroit (and many many many other hell-hole cities) about 50 years ago. We're all still waiting!

Well, at least SF could be a lovely place to live. Great weather, clean ocean breeze, and lots of fantastic attractions within car distance.

When SF declares itself a not "sanctuary city" and starts handing over hardened criminals to the federal government, I'll concede that the place at least has the possibility of improvement. I can't understand how a city doesn't jump at the opportunity to have the federal government (on the federal dime) remove convicted criminals.

SunnyvaleCA says

farmer2021 says

I think SF is opportunity to buy. This built up city is just waiting for conservative mayor to show up as the things are going to get worse.

That's exactly what people were saying of Detroit (and many many many other hell-hole cities) about 50 years ago. We're all still waiting!

Well, at least SF could be a lovely place to live. Great weather, clean ocean breeze, and lots of fantastic attractions within car distance.

That's what my wife kept saying about CA in general. I told her its been declining since before our birth with one positive bump in the 80s.

FuckCCP89 says

Joe&Hoe

Lol, perfect.

farmer2021 says

Here is the calculation:

This is quite convenient:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html

Pretty much ends the debate for me. Just plug in the numbers. Of course you have to put a value on not having to move when the lease is up too.

SunnyvaleCA says

When SF declares itself a not "sanctuary city" and starts handing over hardened criminals to the federal government, I'll concede that the place at least has the possibility of improvement. I can't understand how a city doesn't jump at the opportunity to have the federal government (on the federal dime) remove convicted criminals.

I agree.

For me personally, I'll consider San Francisco after they put Columbus back in his rightful place on Telegraph Hill.

B.A.C.A.H. says

farmer2021 says

275k(Investment) -> 1425k(Gain-100K selling cost) -> 11 years.
~16% return every year.
(It will reach higher when you add $500k return has no tax for high income family)

farmer,

the return is a negative cash flow every year, till they sell and realize the gain.

Do you live in the region? Just asking.

Not true. You can refinance or take money out as long as your income can support the mortgage.

Bottom line is at some point this is going to get as expensive as in Asian cities.(multiplier of income).
SF is still nowhere near Asian cities.
Price-to-income
------------------
San Francisco : 7.9
Shenzhen, China 46.28 ( Lot of other ASIAN cities).
Delhi, India 17.79
Dallas, TX, United States 2.35
https://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/rankings.jsp

Look at gross rental yield.
Shenzen: 1.31
sf : 5.07
Dallas : 11.62

Add to that evicting tenets in Asian cities is 100x harder than very bad US city SF... so mostly have "0" rental yield for second homes.
...

High housing prices is biggest evil against working class.

Patrick says

farmer2021 says

Here is the calculation:

This is quite convenient:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html

Pretty much ends the debate for me. Just plug in the numbers. Of course you have to put a value on not having to move when the lease is up too.

Try 16%(only allowed 15% growth housing prices) .. You will see How renting goes out of water.
Buying is better, even if you could rent for free.
Rent needs to be -$12,044 per month.

This is the evil with housing today.