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Patrick's Predictions


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2016 Nov 7, 8:46pm   29,716 views  144 comments

by Patrick   ➕follow (55)   💰tip   ignore  

I don't know whether Trump will win the election or not. I think he has a better chance than polls predict, because the majority of Americans have been strongly conditioned not to speak their actual views through decades of threats of job loss or expulsion from school, and this probably carries over when speaking with pollsters.

If Hillary wins, I predict that Trump's movement against establishment politicians will continue to grow, because the conditions which gave rise to Trump will continue. Hillary will continue to aggressively export US jobs, import foreign labor to depress wages, restrict free speech, attack traditional values, and start additional wars around the world. That would make the next election unfortunately even more interesting.

If Trump wins (very much like the Brexit), the dollar will drop, and therefore US exports will surge. There will be tariffs against China, and US manufacturing will in fact revive. Some form of the wall with Mexico will be built, and millions of illegals will leave or be deported (so the cost of vegetables, maids, and construction work will go up). People will feel free to support traditional values like clear gender roles and heterosexual marriage, and the declining marriage rate will reverse and start rising again. We will withdraw militarily from many countries. Iran will invade and take over Saudi Arabia's mostly-Shiite oil fields, and Saudi Arabia will plunge into civil war, raising the price of oil. Oil production in the US and other countries will go up to compensate and oil prices will fall again. Overall US prosperity will increase for the masses, while the super-wealthy find their wealth stagnating because they depended so much on Hillary's policies. So the gap between rich and poor will decline.

#politics

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89   Peter P   2016 Nov 8, 4:13pm  

Temporarily, perhaps.

Without EU regulations, the UK will be able to trade with other nations more easily. Perhaps it can buy cheap goods from China?

90   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 Nov 8, 4:18pm  

Rashomon says

Or that sterling has collapsed in value, so the cost of many goods has risen as a consequence.

But volcanoes haven't erupted and frogs haven't rained from the heavens, eh? In fact the economic news is mildly better.

Inflation is great for debtors, be it college or mortgages, by the way.

91   OneTwo   2016 Nov 8, 4:18pm  

Peter P says

Temporarily, perhaps.

Without EU regulations, the UK will be able to trade with other nations more easily. Perhaps it can buy cheap goods from China?

Shame getting on for 50% of trade is with the EU. And given the importance of the financial sector to the UK...

92   OneTwo   2016 Nov 8, 4:19pm  

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

But volcanoes haven't erupted and frogs haven't rained from the heavens, eh? In fact the economic news is mildly better.

Inflation is great for debtors, by the way.

It also demonstrates what you said isn't necessarily accurate. And potential double digit rises in food prices is bad for the poor, by the way. And the UK hasn't actually started the process of leaving the EU yet...

93   Peter P   2016 Nov 8, 4:26pm  

Rashomon says

Shame getting on for 50% of trade is with the EU. And given the importance of the financial sector to the UK...

That is now, because of the EU. In the future, there can be deals with Asia and the US.

The Brits are the smartest people in the room. I am more worried about EU's future.

94   OneTwo   2016 Nov 8, 4:30pm  

Peter P says

That is now, because of the EU. In the future, there can be deals with Asia and the US.

The Brits are the smartest people in the room. I am more worried about EU's future.

What manufacturing trade with Asia do you think the UK will be any more competitive in than it already is? As the US has already pointed out to the UK government, the UK will be way down the list in terms of reaching trade agreements. The EU has priority. The UK has a fairly weak manufacturing base (certainly compared to what it once was) and what there is is heavily based around trade with the EU - most especially for foreign manufacturers based in the UK. They only just got Nissan to pledge its future by offering major incentives. I presume a great many are waiting to see what agreement is reached before making their decisions. There are major aerospace and pharmaceutical companies in the UK - their futures in the UK must be open to question as well. There's a reason why Brexit was hugely unpopular amongst the business community.

95   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 Nov 8, 4:45pm  

Rashomon says

It also demonstrates what you said isn't necessarily accurate. And potential double digit rises in food prices is bad for the poor, by the way. And the UK hasn't actually started the process of leaving the EU yet...

It shows that the prediction that all the Service Companies were going to flee was mostly rubbish.

Inflation is always moderate when there is real growth, not just the 1% taking all the gains.

We have regularly high price increases with housing, medical care, and college costs - the entry requirements to the middle class.

The Brits are going to take the Dogger Bank and the Fisheries back, and there's tens of thousands of jobs from fishing to canning to trade shows right there. Right now the Spanish, Dutch, and Portugese are stealing all the British Fish, and the EU has the least efficient fisheries in the world. They end up destroying 50% of their catch, because the incentive is for a few countries to subsidize the shit out of outdated craft and just suck everything up.

96   OneTwo   2016 Nov 8, 5:03pm  

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

It shows that the prediction that all the Service Companies were going to flee was mostly rubbish.

No, it doesn't, and it was more specifically the financial services sector - and those decisions won't be made until the Brexit deal is finalised. The fact it hasn't even begun yet rather puts the lie to your claims.

97   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 Nov 8, 5:11pm  

Rashomon says

No, it doesn't, and it was more specifically the financial services sector - and those decisions won't be made until the Brexit deal is finalised. The fact it hasn't even begun yet rather puts the lie to your claims.

The Remoaners were saying that voting Out would result in immediate, massive harm to the UK the moment the vote was counted. It hasn't, if anything the economic numbers are better now than they were before Brexit.

That's a big bonk for Remoan.

50% of Cars sold in the UK are German. That's far more important economically than Cadbury Chocolate, and it gives the Brits a shitload of leverage.

98   OneTwo   2016 Nov 8, 5:15pm  

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

The Remoaners were saying that voting Out would result in immediate, massive harm to the UK. It hasn't, if anything the economic numbers are better now than they were before Brexit.

That's a big bonk for Remoan.

It has - have you noticed the exchange rate as one obvious example? And this is several years before we are even likely to leave. The leave campaign was based on a very clear set of lies and demonstrates (just like with Trump in the US) how easy it is to mislead an ill-informed electorate. Just look at the Brexit battle bus and the utterly flagrant £350m a week lie they peddled the entire campaign. Of course, they reneged on it the day they won the referendum.

99   OneTwo   2016 Nov 8, 5:17pm  

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

50% of Cars sold in the UK are German. That's far more important economically than Cadbury Chocolate, and it gives the Brits a shitload of leverage.

Why? It's not like those cars will be replaced by ones made by the British car industry, is it?

100   marcus   2016 Nov 8, 8:43pm  

@Patrick

Well, it's looking like you're going to find out how wrong you are. Congratulations.

101   Patrick   2016 Nov 8, 8:53pm  

OK, let's see what happens.

102   marcus   2016 Nov 8, 9:03pm  

IF he gets much of what he wants, and I guess I can hope he doesn't. But if he does get much of what he supposedly wants with respect to trade, tariffs and domestic manufacturing, I predict we will be hearing the word "stagflation" for the first time since the 70s, a few years from now, and eventually many years later it will be obvious that the inflation he caused lowered our standard of living.

But don't worry, republicans will blame liberals or taxes or some other culprit.

Let's look back at this thread with 2020 hindsight (in the year 2020) and see who was closer to correct. I'll hope that his talk was mostly just his scam to get power, and he'll surround himself with at least a few smart people and never do what he said he was going to do.

103   NuttBoxer   2016 Nov 8, 9:25pm  

indigenous says

Trump creates casinos and real estate products.

I guess, was thinking more cars, furniture, computer chips kind of manufacturing...

104   NuttBoxer   2016 Nov 8, 9:28pm  

marcus is NOT deplorable says

I'll hope that his talk was mostly just his scam to get power

Telling people what they want to hear so they vote for you!? You get out! You get out now!!!

105   epitaph   2016 Nov 9, 1:25am  

Gold will be up today, but I see it tanking short term but rising long term. USD will fall and imports and exports will go up. Wages will stagnate, but eventually go up. Things are going to get worse before they get better.

106   Peter P   2016 Nov 9, 1:28am  

Rashomon says

As the US has already pointed out to the UK government, the UK will be way down the list in terms of reaching trade agreements.

This might change under President Trump.

107   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 Dec 18, 5:05pm  

Rashomon says

Why? It's not like those cars will be replaced by ones made by the British car industry, is it?

Think about this Rashomon.

It means the Europeans Germans don't have the leverage they think they do.

And the City won't be Hurt, because the internationalization of banks is supported through a variety of other international multilateral treaties.

108   Strategist   2016 Dec 18, 5:15pm  

Patrick says

Iran will invade and take over Saudi Arabia's mostly-Shiite oil fields, and Saudi Arabia will plunge into civil war

Iran dare not attack Saudi Arabia. They will be sorry.
I could care less for Saudi Arabia, as long as we control them.

109   HEY YOU   2016 Dec 18, 5:43pm  

Strategist says

I could care less for Saudi Arabia, as long as we control them.

g.w.bush had complete control over Saudis on 9/11.
Hope you washed that foot before you stuck it in your mouth.lol
Who's this"we" you speak of? The 1% control all economic benefits.
"We" will be receiving our share of profits soon.

110   Strategist   2016 Dec 18, 5:47pm  

HEY YOU says

Strategist says

I could care less for Saudi Arabia, as long as we control them.

g.w.bush had complete control over Saudis on 9/11.

Hope you washed that foot before you stuck it in your mouth.lol

Obviously, Bush did not control them enough, and we still don't.

HEY YOU says

Who's this"we" you speak of? The 1% control all economic benefits.

"We" will be receiving our share of profits soon.

We as in Americans, or the world of democracy.

111   zzyzzx   2016 Dec 18, 6:10pm  

Patrick says

People will feel free to support traditional values

People at work were openly saying Merry Christmas, and I do not recall that happening all that much before.

112   Strategist   2016 Dec 18, 6:15pm  

zzyzzx says

Patrick says

People will feel free to support traditional values

People at work were openly saying Merry Christmas, and I do not recall that happening all that much before.

I'm a fucking Atheist, and i say "Merry Christmas" because it is Christmas.......Duh!

113   Mrs Wonderful   2016 Dec 18, 7:07pm  

As opposed to an eunich Ztheist?

Strategist says

I'm a fucking Atheist

114   marcus   2016 Dec 19, 8:07am  

IT's well known that there has been a war on Christmas led by liberal politicians and openly satan worshippong companies such as Starbucks.

By next year, nobody will be allowed to say happy holidays anymore. Thanks goodness.

Boycott these pagans.

115   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 Dec 19, 8:52am  

Rashomon says

It has - have you noticed the exchange rate as one obvious example? And this is several years before we are even likely to leave. The leave campaign was based on a very clear set of lies and demonstrates (just like with Trump in the US) how easy it is to mislead an ill-informed electorate. Just look at the Brexit battle bus and the utterly flagrant £350m a week lie they peddled the entire campaign. Of course, they reneged on it the day they won the referendum.

The absolutely guaranteed offshoring of British Rx hasn't happened. In fact several are expanding operations.

McD's international business HQ is moving from the EU and into Britain.

British Services are up big league.

FTSE 100 is up like 10% just since Brexit. From around 6300 to over 700.

The rapey-murdery-assaulting-stone throwing Calais barbarians will never be forced on Britain by the EU.

116   finehoe   2016 Dec 19, 9:01am  

zzyzzx says

People at work were openly saying Merry Christmas

Why do cons/republicans obsess over such silly bullshit? All of the things happening in the country and the world and this is what they spend their time worrying about.

117   joeyjojojunior   2016 Dec 19, 9:17am  

I find that Satan Worshipping companies have better quality and customer service. I know--it's kind of ironic.

118   Blurtman   2016 Dec 19, 9:21am  

The prediction about Anna Nicole Smith rising from the dead to lead a zombie horde against all that is corrupt and impure was spot on.

119   Patrick   2016 Dec 19, 9:23am  

finehoe says

zzyzzx says

People at work were openly saying Merry Christmas

Why do cons/republicans obsess over such silly bullshit? All of the things happening in the country and the world and this is what they spend their time worrying about.

I think it is actually important to be able to say Merry Christmas openly and without fear of reprisal. Not silly bullshit.

If you cannot speak freely, you cannot even think freely. To control speech is to control thoughts.

It's a war of slippery slopes. The left claims that Merry Christmas is a step towards a Christian theocracy, which is obviously nuts because people said Merry Christmas for close to two centuries here without any theocracy before the saying became effectively outlawed.

For the right, the outlawing of Merry Christmas is a step down the slippery slope towards complete globalization and the effective destruction of all national borders and identities. This would benefit international corporations and their elite owners at the expense of everybody else. All labor and environmental laws are made pointless by globalization if the elite can just move production to wherever the laws are weaker. The true irony is that labor and environmental laws were largely created by the left, and now the left is aggressively encouraging their utter destruction through globalization.

120   Strategist   2016 Dec 19, 9:26am  

rando says

I think it is actually important to be able to say Merry Christmas openly and without fear of reprisal. Not silly bullshit.

The same people that refuse to say "Merry Christmas" probably have no problem saying "Happy Ramadan" or some shit like that.

121   finehoe   2016 Dec 19, 9:41am  

rando says

without fear of reprisal.

And when has this ever happened?

rando says

the outlawing of Merry Christmas

Where has it been "outlawed"?

122   mell   2016 Dec 19, 10:00am  

rando says

I think it is actually important to be able to say Merry Christmas openly and without fear of reprisal. Not silly bullshit.

Absolutely. Note that this is not a US only trend, but is happening in much of Western Europe as well. Kids being prohibited from performing the crib play at school, singing certain songs etc. It's one the most important topics because free speech is at stake. Doesn't get much more important than this.

123   finehoe   2016 Dec 19, 11:04am  

mell says

this is not a US only trend

Except it's not; it's a figment of the wingnut imagination. No one is being reprimanded for saying Merry Christmas, nor are they going to jail for saying it.

You guys will swallow the most ridiculous fantasies hook, line, and sinker.

124   FuckTheMainstreamMedia   2016 Dec 19, 1:45pm  

finehoe says

mell says

this is not a US only trend

Except it's not; it's a figment of the wingnut imagination. No one is being reprimanded for saying Merry Christmas, nor are they going to jail for saying it.

You guys will swallow the most ridiculous fantasies hook, line, and sinker.

I know you could get a complaint against you at my workplace if you say it to the particularly wrong asshole.

I imagine Ribas might be like that.

125   joeyjojojunior   2016 Dec 19, 1:47pm  

If there isn't a guy dressed as Santa on every corner yelling "Merry Christmas" at the top of his lungs 24/7, then we're at war with Christianity.

126   Blurtman   2016 Dec 19, 3:22pm  

But is Die Hard a Christmas Movie?

127   joeyjojojunior   2016 Dec 19, 6:19pm  

jazz music says

That notion qualifies you to host a AM radio mic-bully show.

Hey that sounds good. Does it pay more than being a DNC stooge?

128   Patrick   2016 Dec 19, 6:49pm  

Fucking White Male says

I know you could get a complaint against you at my workplace if you say it to the particularly wrong asshole.

I imagine Ribas might be like that.

Bingo.

Try saying Merry Christmas at work and see how long it takes you to get a complaint.

Keep saying Merry Christmas after that, and you're out of a job.

Saying Merry Christmas is definitely illegal in fact if not in law yet.

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