patrick.net

My impression is that Colorado is the key.

Logan Mohtashami says

Clinton, I ran many models here even giving Trump Ohio Florida and Arizona and he still loses

PA is the key here... if that state could turn Trump you have a mathematical case he could win.. but that's not the case

Wait, RCP has Pennsylvania AND Virginia in the margin of error and listed as Tossups....and those polls didn't include this past weekends events:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5964.html

FP says

My impression is that Colorado is the key.

This is the most bullish Trump Map I can come up with ... and he still loses

Be mindful on this

A. Clinton is doing much better with independents than Trump
B. College educated White Males for the first time ever have turned polled Democrat
C. X factor is how many Republicans ( Like Myself) don't even vote Hard to model data line out in polls outside the ones that say 20%-30% of Republicans won't vote Trump

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

She's been so bellicose in this election, her ability to conduct Diplomacy with Russia is seriously compromised.

That's silly. Putin is fucking with our election. Her calling him out on it after our President has already done so is not ruining her ability to negotiate with Russia. Even if Hillary went beyond the norm and vilified Russia based on fiction, Putin would still work with her. He'd have something in common with her, and they could bullshit about it behind closed doors before discussing ways to move forward. Trump's ignorance will prevent him from successfully negotiating with Russia or anyone else for that matter. His unwillingness to read or listen to others means that all he will have is is 'instincts.'

YesYNot says

Putin is fucking with our election.

Evidence?

Logan Mohtashami says

You copied my map.

If you had already I added this, I apologize, I have many maps ... this is the only Pro Trump Map outside the Tie Map

This gives you a baseline of how Ugly it could get if

Clinton wins independents ( Romney won that last time)
College educated Whites vote democrat
Republicans in general have a 20%-30% no turn out vote
Bernie People come out and vote for Clinton

Clinton does not give a fuck about the world (at least the lives of regular people) and puts her personal interest ahead of America.

The Clinton foundation exists because it benefits her family. The rest is secondary.

Why do you think Clinton is winning independents? Trump would be down 10 or more of that was the case. Recent CBS poll has Trump up with independents 42-38.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/five-days-to-go-the-presidential-race-tightens-cbsnyt-poll/

And why aren't you using the RCP map?

I grope u says

Why do you think Clinton is winning independents?

Baseline polls of all and carry trend over for weeks, Clinton is doing better when Independents

This election has a lot X variables that might not mean anything on voting day but get a lot attention from the media

The crazy data line that has stuck out more than any is the College educated White America is voting democrat .... that is big deviation in this election for me in terms of the data

Logan Mohtashami says

I grope u says

Why do you think Clinton is winning independents?

Baseline polls of all and carry trend over for weeks, Clinton is doing better when Independents

This election has a lot X variables that might not mean anything on voting day but get a lot attention from the media

The crazy data line that has stuck out more than any is the College educated White America is voting democrat .... that is big deviation in this election for me in terms of the data

Link the polls showing Hillary leads among independents.

Trump is going to beat Clinton by 2 votes in the College.

Nevada is firmly Trump now and even before the Email scandal Nevada was tied/well within the margin of error.

It should be pointed out that the Witch of War and Wall Street is one point more favorable than Trump, but there ain't gonna be no 2008/2012 turnout to help her like it did Obama.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

Evidence?

News reports had our intelligence agencies saying it for a few weeks. Obama finally made the symbolic gesture of stating it aloud. There are tons of reports saying that it is the MO of Russia these days. My guess is that Russia has nukes, but they don't have a lot of military or economic power these days. So, Putin get's creative.

That's enough for me to think it's most likely true. It's not enough to start a war over, but that's not what's going on.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

Nevada is firmly Trump now and even before the Email scandal Nevada was tied/well within the margin of error

Nevada was Clinton +5 about 10 days ago. It's made a huge swing in the last week. That seems pretty volatile and hard to predict to me.

YesYNot says

Nevada was Clinton +5 about 10 days ago. It's made a huge swing in the last week. That seems pretty volatile and hard to predict to me.

What happened in the last week?

Besides Putin infiltrating the FBI and lying about Clinton's pay for play and Weiner's emails. :)

Just a coinky-dinky this went missing in 2009.

Logan Mohtashami says

This gives you a baseline of how Ugly it could get if

Clinton wins independents ( Romney won that last time)

College educated Whites vote democrat

Republicans in general have a 20%-30% no turn out vote

Bernie People come out and vote for Clinton

Also quote for posterity. If you really think Iowa, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, NC, Nebraska, and Ohio are in question, I want to know what you are smoking. This election will be won, or lost, in PA, NH, NM, CO, UT, WI, MI, or possibly parts of Maine. If I had to pin it on one state, I'm guessing PA. Why? It's because if Trump doesn't win PA, he has to win more of the midwest (I.E. - WI, MI, MN) and I suspect that PA is easier to win any of those 3, primarily because all of Western PA is (for all practical purposes) the newest red state. I also think we'll know early enough in the evening if it's going to be a Trump landslide. If Trump wins parts of Maine, and NH, or anything else in New England, he's probably going to be our next president. If New England goes all blue, then it's potentially a long evening. It's not that New England is all that important to Trump (it isn't if he wins PA), but I'm just pointing out if these usually solid blue area go red, it's signaling a trend that's going to carry through the rest of the country. Also, Proposition 69 in Colorado will not pass.

Logan Mohtashami says

Bernie People come out and vote for Clinton

Ummm...if patrick.net is any indication, nearly 100% of former Bernie supporters will vote Trump.

Good. That shows you who the special interests fear and love.

zzyzzx is deplorable says

Ummm...if patrick.net is any indication, nearly 100% of former Bernie supporters will vote Trump.

Not true. Some will vote for Jill Stein.

Peter P says

Not true. Some will vote for Jill Stein.

Well, they aren't voting for Clinton.

Peter P says

Not true. Some will vote for Jill Stein.

Or stay home. If Bernie gets thousands to his rallies, but Hillary can't get more than a few hundred, obviously the Afterburners aren't super enthusiastic about her.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

What happened in the last week?

The FBI email story itself and the secondary effect: that story brought Trump out of his muppet shame spiral reinvigorated him and he is staying on message. That said, most polls didn't move 7 points. So, unless something weird is going on in Nevada, the old polls were probably skewed toward clinton a little, and the new ones probably skewed towards Trump. The polls are +-3 pts statistically. So, if you'd expect approximately a 3 pt swing in 50% of the states due to just statistical changes (going from +1.5 to -1.5) Half of those would swing one direction, and half would swing the other. In reality, with a lot of states, you might see a one with a 5 pt swing due to statistical variance in the polls alone. So 3 to 4 pts of the 7 pt swing could very well be statistical error. Also, IMO, the swing based on the FBI leak will probably come back a bit by the election.

YesYNot says

The FBI email story itself and the secondary effect: that story brought Trump out of his muppet shame spiral reinvigorated him and he is staying on message. That said, most polls didn't move 7 points. So, unless something weird is going on in Nevada, the old polls were probably skewed toward clinton a little, and the new ones probably skewed towards Trump. The polls are +-3 pts statistically. So, if you'd expect approximately a 3 pt swing in 50% of the states due to just statistical changes (going from +1.5 to -1.5) Half of those would swing one direction, and half would swing the other. In reality, with a lot of states, you might see a one with a 5 pt swing due to statistical variance in the polls alone. So 3 to 4 pts of the 7 pt swing could very well be statistical error. Also, IMO, the swing based on the FBI leak will probably come back a bit by the election.

This is a huge, multi-faceted scandal. It's about real corruption, not about locker room talk from a decade ago.

Now huge swings when not much is going on HAS happened in this election. However this swing does have a reason behind it.

At this point, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that either of them was the president, a correctional facility inmate, a Russian-Chinese hacker, a transgender cowboy/girl, a whorehouse pimp, or Santa Clause, himself....

This is such an unprecedented election, I don't know how anyone could feel certain about anything. And we still have five more days to learn even more crazy shit about these people.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia are tossups.

Wisconsin and Michigan are approaching tossup status this evening.

Trump will win Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Missouri, and then the rest of the red states.

He's going to run the table, and flip some major brue blue states, winning 320+ electoral college votes in the process.

Robert Sproul says

I think that is exactly what working class America is scared of.

cause working class america will do so good under Trump policies: you know, trade war with everone, piss off our friends in the world.

the exact middle class are so fucked if he wins, fortunately, I'm very wealthy, and will be fine!

Maybe it wasn't such a great idea to Coronate the Queen of Corruption over the populist insurgent with strong grassroot support, who consistently brought more asses to seats at his Nomination Rallies than Crooked can draw to General Election Rallies.

T- 5 nights now.

Will amend each day, accordingly.

#PlaceYourBets

You know, you can't link to this thread because of the * in the thread title.

Trump leading in 2012's most accurate poll, IBD

6.4M Early Florida Votes, as opposed to 4.4M last in the Election Cycle. Massive increase! Let's hope it's not all Brenda's Broward trickery. I got a feeling the campaign that can't bring in more than a few hundred people at a time isn't the beneficiary of all this enthusiasm.

Furthermore:

The Democrats hold a lead going into Election Day, but their lead is significantly smaller than it was four years ago. In 2012, Democrats scored 43 percent of the early vote in Florida, and Republicans scored 40 percent. In the end, Barack Obama won Florida, but it was a tight race, with the president defeating Mitt Romney by a margin of just 0.88 percentage points. Democratic turnout tends to be high in early voting, and Republican turnout tends to be high on Election Day. So the fact that the Democrats don’t have as large a lead as they did four years ago may spell trouble for Hillary Clinton.

If Romney lost by less than 1 point, I gotta feeling Trump will Stump the Witch of War and Wall Street, Romney in a Pantsuit.

Florida's ground game is the Silent majority, most Trump voters have sworn all along we would hold out to vote on election day.

Trump will destroy the evil & corrupted globalist. it will be the biggest upset ever.

a few has-been and nobody-cares celebrities will leave but oh well.

Tenpoundbass says

Florida's ground game is the Silent majority, most Trump voters have sworn all along we would hold out to vote on election day.

Why?

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

If Romney lost by less than 1 point, I gotta feeling Trump will Stump the Witch of War and Wall Street, Romney in a Pantsuit.

Have to wait and see, but those numbers are registered voters not who they voted for. 26% of Latinos are registered Republicans in Florida. How many of those do you think will be voting Trump?