patrick.net

Keep citing idiotic RBS calls, Logan-AnalStain.

Will you be here and be MAN enough to admit this is a shit for brains equity & credit instrument (whether corporate or gov't bonds, whether straight-up distances or exotic synthethized ones - aka snakeoil) when the next massive deterioration sets in, which will be right around November to January (not that we couldn't see a 20% move lower as soon as by the end of August)?

You'll then say you already pulled your pretend play money out of the long side of the markets after the fact, right?

I represent major REITs and private equity on commercial real estate developments (hotels, retail development, etc.), and there's more money chasing lower quality assets now than there was in August of 2007, which is the last time I made a call similar to the one I'm broadcasting now.

The kicker is that effective interest rates are already at the 0 bound now, when they were at 5.5% in August of 2007, so good luck to central banks in their efforts to shock the (now structurally hollowed out, over-leveraged) economy back to life when it doubles over with Ebola.

freespeechforever says

Keep citing idiotic RBS calls, Logan-AnalStain.

3) Mike “Mish” Shedlock in 2011 says the US is currently in a recession
Monday, August 29, 2011 2:54 AM

US In Recession Right Here, Right Now
I am amused by those who think a US recession will come within a year. Even more amusing are those who think a recession will not come at all.
“The US is in a recession now. I am not the only one who thinks so.”

freespeechforever says

You'll then say you already pulled your pretend play money out of the long side of the markets after the fact, right?

Always invest, each month regardless of what the economic cycle does, in 20 years that will change

freespeechforever says

over-leveraged)

Seriously, only have 88.1 trillion dollars on top of all that massive debt..

Not 2007... no clear over investment thesis on exotic debt

The better thesis would be that commercial real estate looks too hot with the up coming supply coming in 2 years

Logan Mohtashami says

2014... I was promised the Great October Collapse because that's when #QE ended.. and yet when it did.. No collapse came

This gimmick works on rookies... have to try harder than that.. I don't read Zero Hedge

The collapse came later in January 2016, at least it was about a 17% collapse for the S&P 500.

Yes, after QE ended in late 2014, the market has essentially moved sideways.

Read Zero Hedge, and then read Seeking Alpha before reading Calculated Risk Blog.

freespeechforever says

I represent major REITs and private equity on commercial real estate developments (hotels, retail development, etc.),

CoStar: Commercial Real Estate prices increased in May

adarmiento says

The collapse came later in January 2016, at least it was about a 17% collapse for the S&P 500.

No...

It wasn't about the pull back... no no no

It was the worthless Anti Fed Crowd that said

The entire U.S. economy is based on #QE and once #QE ended everything would stop and crash

No cherry picking the statement

That was the promise...

Also the fact that inflation would be roaring..

Inflation is picking up but no hyper inflation thesis on Core CPI

Tenpoundbass says

I've wached way too many people in my life deteriorate and die or their health physical and mental went down hill fast after retiring.

Yes, boredom can kill. Deplorable heath habits, too. They should have included an operator's manual with the body.

There is a difference between want to and have to. Accumulating enough to retire comfortably gives one options.

Logan is such a stupid motherfucker that he can't even adjust for inflation, can't break out dividends from nominal appreciation, and if he's actually serious in believing what he posts (tripe), is probably a 16 year old e*trade day trader (or paper-fantasy trader)o who has been in the game since the 8th grade, using a pet account):

S&P 500: Total and Inflation-Adjusted Historical Returns

http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm

Annual Averages per Decade

The following table shows average annual results for each decade:

  Price
Change Dividend
Dist. Rate Total
Return Inflation Real
Price Change Real
Total Return
1950's 13.2 % 5.4 % 19.3 % 2.2 % 10.7 % 16.7 %
1960's 4.4 % 3.3 % 7.8 % 2.5 % 1.8 % 5.2 %
1970's 1.6 % 4.3 % 5.8 % 7.4 % -5.4 % -1.4 %
1980's 12.6 % 4.6 % 17.3 % 5.1 % 7.1 % 11.6 %
1990's 15.3 % 2.7 % 18.1 % 2.9 % 12.0 % 14.7 %
2000's -2.7 % 1.8 % -1.0 % 2.5 % -5.1 % -3.4 %
1950-2009 7.2 % 3.6 % 11.0 % 3.8 % 3.3 % 7.0 %

I and most other truly wealthy people that I know call the stock market for what it is; a pure, legal scam, where 90% of participants lose money over the short, medium and long-term duration.

If any of you are or know truly wealth individuals, there's a 98.4% chance they made their money in a closely held business, real estate, or even bonds, compared to getting raped in the casino that is the equity markets.

And then we have to suffer Stock Broker limps (scar salesman) who dress badly and smell worse, and their insufferable rantings, such as Logan's.

freespeechforever says

Logan is such a stupid motherfucker that he can't even adjust for inflation

p.s. - Slimy, greasy, used car salesman such as Logan won't even go near the fact that if you extend that chart I posted above past 2009, anyone who invested in 1998 would have seen any and all "gains" (many of which for which they had incurred tax liabilities) wiped out by 2011, and if they were heavily invested in high-beta stocks (such as NASDAQ-heavy or other such momo stocks), could have realistically lost 90% of their net worth placed in equities during that same period.

freespeechforever says

I and most other truly wealthy people that I know call the stock market for what it is; a pure, legal scam, where 90% of participants lose money over the short, medium and long-term duration.

Not if you invest every month, :-)

Small steps... lead to big thing over time, recession are a gift from the gods, the trick is to create a financial back drop that allows you to invest every month

10% bonds
5% reit
85% stocks
Mostly SP 500/600
Internal exposure
10% in ticker symbol MASI

:-)

freespeechforever says

chart I posted above past 2009

Chart is up to July 2016

Anything else pumpkin

freespeechforever says

Fed Resrve......directly buying equities

LOL

God are you stupid. Stupid is so inadequate a word for stock broker chimps (you're more likely a commission-based stock limp).

Congratulations on seeing your $1 rise to approx $10 in purchasing power by "investing" in the equity "markets" over the last 100 years.

http://www.showrealhist.com/index.html

I earn that kind of wealth investing directly in property and businesses in a period of months to several years when the economy is truly rocking and rolling.

freespeechforever says

the economy is truly rocking and rolling.

Ahh so you're a cycle timer and dis credit the Anti American bears

I made 8 figures from just 2002 to 2006 ALONE, buying and reselling acreage to Big Box retailers.

I also kept many of the outlots/pad sites in front of those parcels I sold off to this day.

I have clients who have closely held businesses that manufacturer parts for the auto, aviation, energy, etc. industries, with one such example being a recently deceased founder whose plastic injection molding business was purchased after his death (4 months ago) for 118 million USD, and he founded the biz in 1978 with a total investment of $18,000.

I have a client who bought industrial warehouses in bulk from banks in the 2009 to 2013 period, and those assets are worth 5x to 15x what he purchased them for.

Move to the genuine, real money, Logan.

And no, the economy sucks in real terms right now, with some narrow exceptions.

This is definitely the time to be a net seller, not a buyer.

Sell while the central banks allow the connected (and systemically "important" but insolvent banks) to re-capitalize themselves off of taxpayers' and consumers' backs as they flood the zone with trillions in new toilet paper confetti dollars, yen, yuan, euros, pesos, etc.

Logan, you're a different kind of stupid altogether.

freespeechforever says

Logan, you're a different kind of stupid altogether.

So, their is a point in the economic cycle when the economy works

Yeah, and if you're still pimpin' the long side, you're way behind the curve.

The time to buy anything was 2009 to 2012.

The truly smart money is dumping right now, and the central banks with their galactically stupid monetary policy (now coordinated globally, for 10x the idiotic, devasting affect on the real, structural economy!) are providing the electronic printing press (turning keystrokes into currency with which to buy up all the milkshakes) cover to escape while the getting is good.

IOW - we never had a real recovery; we had a financial (FIRE) reflation of asset values which truly did benefit the top 0.1% (those who claim the 1% benefited are mistaken; the 1% mainly held still, with few exceptions; the 0.1% are those who received the central bank gifting).

Now, the the reflated (by central bank keystroke magic) financial assets can't begin to paper over the ever-increasing & obvious structural economic degradation (hence the rise of Trump, Marie Le Pen, Brexit, etc.).

Ciao!

Logan Mohtashami says

No...

It wasn't about the pull back... no no no

It was the worthless Anti Fed Crowd that said

The entire U.S. economy is based on #QE and once #QE ended everything would stop and crash

Well I remember watching CNBC during 2012-2015 and hearing a wide range of pundits saying that 1/2 of the growth in the S&P 500 was due to QE.

Logan, I say this was due respect:

Only a truly dumb, head-up-their-ass fuckwad would not concede the glaringly obvious FACT that equities have risen to the point that they have b/c of global, coordinated, super-aggressive monetary policy (QE1, QE2, QE3, QE4, etc.; ZIRP, now NIRP in Japan & parts of Europe) by fucking retarded central banks (the academics who never held real jobs in the real economy).

In fact, think about this:

Historically, equities move in the opposite direction of bonds and credit instruments.

The fuckwad central banks have the so structurally damaged the global economy that asset classes that throughout all of economic history have moved in an inverse relationship are now perversely moving in the same direction (e.g. Bonds, even junk bonds, are now moving higher in correlated fashion as equities).

It's going to all end in a spectacular bust sooner rather than later, and only the most obtuse can't see and won't concede this inevitability.

2008 was the forest fire that they should've let burn through the underbrush.

Now, there's 10x the amount of scrub, kindling and flammable detritus to create an enormous economic wildfire because central banks never let things rebalance.

freespeechforever says

Only a truly dumb, head-up-their-ass fuckwad would not concede the glaringly obvious FACT that equities have risen to the point that they have b/c of global, coordinated, super-aggressive monetary policy (QE1, QE2, QE3, QE4, etc.; ZIRP, now NIRP in Japan & parts of Europe) by fucking retarded central banks (the academics who never held real jobs in the real economy).

Yes because excess reserves is the mother milk for consumption profits

freespeechforever says

Historically, equities move in the opposite direction of bonds and credit instruments

Their is some validity to this thesis .... rising inflation and Fed rate hikes due come at the end of the cycle

adarmiento says

Well I remember watching CNBC during 2012-2015 and hearing a wide range of pundits saying that 1/2 of the growth in the S&P 500 was due to QE.

Nah.... massive excessive reserves yes.. velocity no...

Then again you can read the Fed's recent White Paper agreeing that #QE didn't do much for the economy

I wish you'd acknowledge that it's impossible to stoke aggregate demand in any meaningful way on any sustainable basis by having central banks deposit additional electronic fiat credits in the form of excess reserves into (a hugely disproportionate number of genuinely insolvent) banks.

Without additional net-positive productivity, nurtured by intelligent capex on the part of business, versus share buybacks and dividend increases, the only end result will be greater inefficiencies and malinvestment, continually reduced aggregate demand, worsening lending standards (especially with taxpayer backstop of loans such as FHA loans in the U.S.), greater economic structural rot, and a larger bubble (created by monetary blowing of bubbles in reflating purely financial assets).

These are the times whereby Keynesians administer heroin to treat pneumonia, get the economy hooked on highly inefficient allocations of excess reserve led reflationary faux growth, and the Austrians had it correct all along inasmuch as they endorse allowing true price discovery to return, which is the only way to truly clear the deck of bad assets and investment, and allow for a be phase of truly organic economic growth based on naturally occurring aggregate demand by consumers, and fulfilled by intelligent capex decisions by producers.

freespeechforever says

Austrians had it correct all along

You mean Gold went from 1900 to 1040... that decline in prices...freespeechforever says

naturally occurring aggregate demand by consumers,

Consumption as a % of GDP has been positive each quarter since the recession

Hence why retail sales are at cycle highs and home sales are at cycle highs.... all with out #QE.....

Anything else before I go to sleep

My oppinion is that the state of the health of the economy and people in it are like drug junkies, who just depends on dose of debt.
Businesses borrows to produce stuff that should not have been produced and people borrow to consume on items they will not be able to honestly pay for.
You show your face and debating this junky is not in a state to collapse. There are a school of people like you who helps the people in power to talk sheeple into debt slavory like mafias give doses to prostitures.
Yes, you are right. The junky still breathes, but it is a junky any way, and observers know where the junkies are going.
Depression or hyperfinflatuon happens at every debt cycle that can last 75 years. So you will be correct for as long as 75 years.
The junky is walking and breathing, and you try to convince everybody it is fine.

Auto loan debt = all time record (in nominal and REAL terms) at 2.85 trillion USD

Credit Card debt = near all time record (in nominal and REAL terms) at over 1 trillion

Student Loans = all time record (in nominal and real terms) at over 3.8 trillion USD

Home Mortgage Debt =`on the rapid rise and now at 8.5 trillion USD

Overall, American’s total debt, which includes mortgage debt, HELOCs, student loans, auto loans, and credit cards, increased by $136 billion in the first quarter, to $12.25 trillion.

Note that these figures don't include corporate debt (now at an absolute all-time high in history; those stock buybacks and debt issuances/bond sales don't come cheap even if the Fed has suppressed interest rates artificially), nor government debt, now poised to cross 20 trillion USD officially (over 10x that if one included unfunded future entitlements) by December 31, 2016.

WE'RE GOING TO NEED A BIGGER DEBT BOAT!

Logan Mohtashami says

Not if you invest every month, :-)

Small steps... lead to big thing over time, recession are a gift from the gods, the trick is to create a financial back drop that allows you to invest every month

10% bonds

5% reit

85% stocks

Mostly SP 500/600

Internal exposure

10% in ticker symbol MASI

:-)

If you're such a hard charging stock guy. How come you live in a condo in Irvine?

How come your condo you bought for $452,500 in 2004 is now only worth $568,603?

How come your condo is decreasing in price in recent months? Thought you were in the housing business??

Let's check your experience...

Wow that's pathetic. You need to get out more, rather than try convince us how smart/wealthy you are.

Logan DREAMS of becoming a Big Swinging Dick, one day, while he now is a mere debt-slave poker.

Honestly, he'd be better off getting his Series 6 and 7, and becoming a middling Charles Schwab *Financial Consultant* contract worker.

Wait, Logan, you only went to Cal State Fullerton for 1 year?

Tell me you at least earned an associates degree.

How many employees are there at AMC Lending Group, where you are "Senior Loan Manager?"

If Logan lives in small apartment, than he saves shitload of money. And if he invests it the way he does, he'll be very very very rich in few decades.

If I made 10 times more money than making now, I'll quitelle living in the same place where I'm living now and putting the extra to work hard for me.

That's what he's doing. Smart!

:-)
Awesome... it's about time you guys start doing this... so.. watch and learn how easy it was to bait and click you guys ....

Tsk Tsk..

junkmail says

If you're such a hard charging stock guy. How come you live in a condo in Irvine?

Number.. I noticed an explosion on people looking up my name yesterday, I fiquered it has to be junkmail..

So, I went on Zillow and took over my home and fixed up the data.. They had it at 578,000 1,400 square foot, that is my new next door neighboor, which bought that home

Thank you junkmail...this is all part of the plan. Keep it up

By the way

Irvine, 7th highest median income city in America, #1 educated city in America

So, I ask

What is your name and where do you live

Since you're all friends and investment club people... you guys actually don't really hate each other.. even IronMan is your friend... this act... I get it... its cute...

Stratigest... I have already pegged out... but all of you together ... this is going to fun!

freespeechforever says

Logan DREAMS of becoming a Big Swinging Dick,

Not really, Logan.... hence the name... just a family guy, looks at charts and is going to take out all the Anti American Trolls out piece by piece....

Though the cursing hides the sentence structure, sentence structure is more impressive than others... Please keep on doing.. pieces of puzzles that's all

By the way if you really want to know the truth ... I would suggest looking up on Linkedin

I think I am ranked 37th their nationally overall, ranked #1 for sector for 2 years now

I implore you, just look ;-)

Come on... don't be shy

https://www.linkedin.com/in/logan-mohtashami-5167631?trk=nav_responsive_tab_profile

Logan Mohtashami says

Irvine, 7th highest median income city in America

huh? Is that for cities larger than some population cutoff? Because $87K is not that impressive.

I can find 50 cities with higher median incomes than that in the Chicago area alone.