patrick.net

smaulgld says

The crash won't be due to over investment but due to excessive debt that cant be paid back and due to inflated asset prices like stocks that don't bear any rational econmic relation to their valuations

That thesis could have been used from 2010-2016 and has been used as valuation have never been cheap but with low inflation and low rates the cycle had had legs and is going into it's 9 year of expansion

She is old and she can't break over 2,136 .... but the Americans bears are showing their lack of economic background..

A deflationary spiral with Americans economics it's very difficult to have with our consumption based model as technology and globalization have killed inflation

I welcome the right and left to join forces against me for the next 15 years and their massive American crash economic theories, Or U.S. citizens becoming Serfs or some deflationary spiral

Last 5 years I have studied the hard left and right and what they preconceive to be economic equilibrium to some disaster American end

I have realized that

A. Investing thesis
B. Actually don't have a background in economics or versed in economic data
C. Create False economic theories base on their own political and economic ideology back ground

This is very normal in history for the extreme left and right cry a sad river pain when they just act like Drama Queens

So, I renounce them all, every last one of them and their false death and destruction theories

We aren't Europe, Japan, South American, Russia or some desperate debasing currency exporting nation that gets punished when the dollar rise

You people picked the wrong country to bet against...

This time .... someone is going to call you both out... because once we get this recession and it doesn't creates Serfs or some titanic deflationary spiral, or some Great Depression

They everyone here will realize you were all just a bunch of story tellers that weren't versed in economic data.

This is battle I am willing to wanting to take on 2021! No Great American Depression...

Logan Mohtashami says

They everyone here will realize you were all just a bunch of story tellers that weren't versed in economic data.

You are free to have your opinion that demographics somehow override inequality. And that real wages will somehow go up as more people enter the workforce.

But don't pretend that economic data supports your theory. All the charts and graphs you've posted support my thesis. No real wage growth for 16 years. Peaks and troughs of each economic cycle are getting lower. We understand data and interpret graphs much better than you do.

tatupu70 says

. No real wage growth for 16 years. Peaks and troughs of each economic cycle are getting lower. We understand data and interpret graphs much better than you do.

Get on talking .. this is game plan for the next 15 years to show the extreme left are just as off as the extreme right

Your lack of understanding employment to population economics shows

Logan Mohtashami says

Your lack of understanding employment to population economics show

You often mistake disagreement as lack of understanding. I fully understand your thesis but believe it to be incorrect.

tatupu70 says

I fully understand your thesis but believe it to be incorrect.

If your thesis had any merit our economy would look like Europe or South America

Except Americans don't cry, Americans don't beg, We work!

I don't buy your talk, if you really believed this you have taken your family away from here and moved to Sweden

Your children and grand children becoming Serfs ... why would you ever put them through that horror?

Logan Mohtashami says

If your thesis had any merit our economy would look like Europe or South America

What are you talking about?

Logan Mohtashami says

I don't buy your talk, if you really believed this you have taken your family away from here and moved to Sweden

Huh? I'm doing fine. My children will be fine. My grandchildren will be fine. And I want to help fix this country, not run away.

landtof says

jazz music says

... and houses can only go up?

Such hubris is comical. If I were you I would hide behind an avatar and take a name like ... The Loan Arranger, ... no no no ... that is American alright, but your brand of patriotism is too shrill more like ...YES ... Baghdad Bob, That is you. Baghdad Bob's Mortgage.

It has been my honor, namaste.

@Strategist what do you think about this fucking horse shit right here? this guy needs meds, bro.

jazz music says

landtof says

@Strategist what do you think

BWA HAHAHAhahahahahaHAHAHAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!

Our Shakespeare read the crisis facing Venezuela, the country that is over the cliff. He is in deep pain at the thought of his comrades being overthrown.
Eat some cake, Jazz.

tatupu70 says

And I want to help fix this country, not run away.

fixing a country is different than 1929 depression and we are serfs

tatupu70 says

Huh? I'm doing fine. My children will be fine. My grandchildren will be fine. And I want to help fix this country, not run away.

The best way you can help is......do nothing.

Logan Mohtashami says

fixing a country is different than 1929 depression and we are serfs

Obviously. Not sure why you would think otherwise.

tatupu70 says

Obviously. Not sure why you would think otherwise

Lead from strength not weakness

When you start saying Serfs and Great Depression that is fear and when that reality doesn't happen, the people that do need help then now and in the past won't get it

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=4ei1 … Real Median Household Income is a function of a) Real Median Weekly Earnings and b) the Participation Rate

The Real Recession is over: real median weekly earnings are finally at fresh all time highs.

Your days of channeling data to not show the entire story are done , 5,000,000 charts will counter everything you put here

This is My site now with economic data

According to the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and NAHB analysis, the number of open construction sector jobs (on a seasonally adjusted basis) increased to 193,000 in February from a downwardly revised estimate of 157,000 in January. The current estimate beat the previous cycle high of 177,000 unfilled positions set last May and represents the highest monthly count of job openings since July 2007.

Which goes to my point that we are closer to full employment and what is left in this cycle can't be filled because we are labor light

Below 3% from college Grads on unemployment and last leg of high school drop outs were being hired fast in 2015

What's left

Low level quality, Drug addicts, Criminal active people

New York Times just had a piece saying how hard to was to hire someone because a lot people couldn't pass a drug test

Every sector has job openings and this stage of the cycle if you're not working it's you, it's not the economy

What we see is very common at this stage of economic cycle

This is why Claims, JOLTS, LEI and are important in economic cycle timing ..

We don't have a job problem in America, plenty of jobs out there and after year 8 of this cycle, if someone hasn't worked in 8 years, it's not the economy faults

Need a quick course in demographic economics and here is BLS table for 1. Median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers by sex, quarterly averages, seasonally adjusted

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/wkyeng.t01.htm

Logan Mohtashami says

You're Deflationary Spiral thesis is just as bad as the Gold Bugs, Don't you dare leave this site come 2020 when post Recession cycle looks nothing like you're claiming it be

You're mistaking YoY % over a long term extended run

Not the correct way

And another Logan cop-out. Can't answer the question?

Jesus Holy $)(_#0-

Wow...

You can't believe this non sense, you're just talking for the sake of debating this is bordello madness

I refuse to believe what you said

tatupu70 says

And another Logan cop-out. Can't answer the question?

No cop outs you're both off the Grid... I even gave you the data, You're not even versed in... Seriously

No... No.... No...

I refuse do believe this, you can't be this far off the Grid, no way

You can't be this off the grid of reality

Logan Mohtashami says

And you can't keep posting this chart that is average of all earnings. The 1% is doing great and will skew that chart.

Seriously for the sake of not totally being embarrassed post the next recession

Older economies have limited capacity growth, that's given.

However, you're running right into a young work force bigger than the Boomers with a median college 2015 Grad pay of 48K-54K

This isn't going to end well for you Deflationary Depression Spiral thesis

Logan Mohtashami says

This isn't going to end well for you Deflationary Depression Spiral thesis

I'm afraid it's not going to end well for 99% of the US population.

Another point that could create a crink in Logan's thesis is that if the interest rates go up to just 4% the debt service will be 1.5 Trillion. Plus it will be twofer in that the value of the treasuries the Fed holds will go down in value.

This I'm paraphrasing from David Stockman.

Anyway add this to the pile of un-refuted points I have made.

Logan Mohtashami says

Older economies have limited capacity growth, that's given.

And that's another ridiculous statement. What is limiting US capacity of anything?

tatupu70 says

What is limiting US capacity of anything?

When you're a young country... infrastructure build is massive, because you're building out for a growing labor force.

When you're older country, you start doing things like repair because a lot your infrastructure build out is limited

This is why countries always grow really fast when they're young and when they get older their growth models fall because they're big.

Here in America we were awesome because we had a mass immigration for decades which lead to massive booms in prime age labor force in 1980's and 1990's and now you see that growth peaked in 2007

My next article will explain why we haven't been able to to get to the 50 year average in housing starts up to 1.5 million that everyone thought would be so easy in this cycle

Demographics matter and as you can see below so does labor force growth

Logan Mohtashami says

When you're a young country... infrastructure build is massive, because you're building out for a growing labor force.

When you're older country, you start doing things like repair because a lot your infrastructure build out is limited

This is why countries always grow really fast when they're young and when they get older their growth models fall because they're big.

Here in America we were awesome because we had a mass immigration for decades which lead to massive booms in prime age labor force in 1980's and 1990's and now you see that growth peaked in 2007

Yes, thanks for that lesson. My question was what is limiting our capacity of anything? Labor, capital?

Because what you forgot to mention in your lesson was that older countries are much, much more efficient than younger ones. All those productivity gains every year mean that US capacity is actually growing every year. It takes much less labor to produce today vs. 100 years ago.

We grew our economy from 2 trillion to near 19 trillion in 1980's and 1990's no it wasn't Reagan or Clinton it was awesome prime age labor force growth

tatupu70 says

Labor, capital?

Every question you have just think of these 2 charts

Both of you two aren't versed in demographic economics and that's fine not a lot people but that's my thing.. prime age labor force growth matters

I hate to tell you this but we are never going to agree on American economics ever not for second

Logan Mohtashami says

Both of you two aren't versed in demographic economics and that's fine not a lot people but that's my thing.. prime age labor force growth matters

You think it's just magic, don't you? If there are people aged 25-54 than the economy magically grows.

Others, like me, understand why it has worked this way in the past and why it may NOT work that way in the future.