patrick.net

Millenials are the youtube generation. These kids are socially and media savvy, and to appeal to them, you have to be authentic. Typical politicians are way too fake, and these kids won't take it.

I think that part of it comes from idealism of youth. They apply this idealism to how people communicate and act. But the other part of it is that they have grown up watching everyday people loosely following their own scripts on youtube. This provides a much different experience and expectations than watching highly scripted news shows and things.

Trump said last night "we got the uneducated vote! I love the uneducated!"

And then the bbc reporter couldn't help herself but giggle and remark that she wondered if the idiots were looking around wondering if he was talking about them

It's funny to watch an idiot like ironman try to cast blame for Bernies popularity

"Look, it's all young people voting for him! Young means dumb! Older people know better"

Funny, because Bernie is the oldest candidate, so by his logic, also the wisest

But everyone knows that Ironman is dumber than dogshit

errc says

It's funny to watch an idiot like ironman try to cast blame for Bernies popularity

CIC is a perfect example of Trump supporters being people of low IQ.

Growth is going to come from Hispanics:

http://patrick.net/Donald+Trump+Gets+Plurality+of+Latino+Votes+in+Nevada+Against+Sen.+Marco+Rubio

Dan8267 says

Addendum:

IQ between 80 an 99, vote for Hillary.

IQ less than 80, vote for Trump.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-gop-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/02/donald-trump-sabermetrics-bill-james-219731?lo=ap_a2

Oh yeah, those 2500 hispanics that voted Trump in Nevada are a sure sign that he's going to capture tens of millions of hispanics moving forward

"Baseball Expert Lectures about politics"

College Educated people don't compete with illegals for the de-unionized (thanks to Business Majors, MBAs and LLMs) meatpacking plants and import warehouses. The Class War in this country comes from the "Creative Class" as much as the "Resource Extraction" and "Low Wage Service Industry" Classes.

Look at Marcus, not concerned ("I'm alright, Jack" It'll work out somehow, not my problem) about outsourcing and in-sourcing, because as a college-educated person with a unionized government job, he knows the Teachers Union would never allow the end of tenure while allowing Filipina H1-Bs to become Math Teachers like they do in Nursing and IT.

But here are the facts:
* Trump won HS educated as well as some college/associate degrees holders by double digits - but also won college graduates by 3% in the SC Primary
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/primaries/south-carolina-exit-poll/
* Trump won 20% of the post-grad vote, behind Rubio, but then Rubio did great in the center of government where Education and Admin post-grads abound. He got 21% of all post-grads in NH.

So yeah, he does best with HS or some college, but he still gets a small majority of college educated and 1 in 5 of all postgrad voters. This is also born out in a late poll from Quinnipiac.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=2323

The college educated are a core Trump constituency, just behind evangelicals and moderate-liberal Republicans.

Again, Trump has the most to offer non-college graduates as they are the worst hurt by bad trade policies. However, the H1-B situation is changing the immigration and One-sided Trade game - now college workers are under threat.

errc says

But everyone knows that Ironman is dumber than dogshit

I think I stopped being bothered by him when I realized he was basically an anal wart - a little lump of virus on the asshole of society.

It's hard to blame a virus for its behavior. It makes less sense than getting angry with a rabid dog.

thunderlips11 says

Again, Trump has the most to offer non-college graduates as they are the worst hurt by bad trade policies. However, the H1-B situation is changing the immigration and One-sided Trade game - now college workers are under threat.

I have no doubt that trump is a satanist. The 2 biggest sins in satanism by far are stupidity and weakness. Therefore, Trump in his heart despises the "poorly educated" to the fullest but is willing to pander to them and to fool them to get elected.

Ironman says

I hate to break it to him, but Trump got 46% of the vote last night not 30%.... Plus, it was a 5 way race, so if he really understood statistics, getting 46%, when votes get split 5 ways is significant.

The original Bill James post is an indecipherable rant with no separation of thoughts into paragraphs, somehow connecting DiMaggio and Bay Area Italians generally with Peanut Allergies, lisping, America still being great, and whinging about losing - somehow Harry Truman and Donald Trump symbolize personal attacks and losing(?!):
www.billjamesonline.com/trump_as_in_rump/

It almost sounds like an anti-SJW rant, except he's attacking... Trump?!

Anyway, it's Rubio Math, you can come in 2nd or 3rd over and over again stuck at a "24% or less ceiling", but somehow still win the nomination. Rubio isn't even trying that hard. He, Cruz, and Kasich are simply gathering some delegates to try for a brokered convention and/or the Veep slot. But I doubt this will work out, since after March 15th it's winner-take-all.

Ironman says

Great link Tatty boy, is that the best you can do?? This guy claims to know statistical analysis, and he comes up with this:

..."But in a general election situation, James posited, "when you’re talking about needing 51 percent of the whole population, rather than needing 30 percent of half of the population, you run out of morons. I hope we will."

I hate to break it to him, but Trump got 46% of the vote last night not 30%.... Plus, it was a 5 way race, so if he really understood statistics, getting 46%, when votes get split 5 ways is significant.

Yes, and Nevada has consistently been one of Trump's best states. Why do you quibble with meaningless details and miss the entire point. Even if you assume he'll get 46% going forward--which is highly dubious--46% of 50% of the population doesn't equal a win in November.

And the thing about 5 ways is actually James' point. There are a lot of indications that Trump has a ceiling (high unfavorables, not many voters 2nd choice) so once it's not 5 ways anymore, he may suffer.

Ironman says

tatupu70 says

Even if you assume he'll get 46% going forward--which is highly dubious--46% of 50% of the population doesn't equal a win in November.

Ahhh... your wonderful math skills again...

lol--I bet you probably don't even know what 46% of 50% is.

Ironman says

For sure... I guess if you add up all the other 4 vote totals for the other 4 guys, it equals 54%, so based on that, Trump lost.

Right. The talking point isn't even that clever, because it is predicated on preferences staying stagnant into the Election:

* Carson, Rubio, Kasich, or Cruz voters say "Well, better Trump than the Immense Hirsute Lesbian (or that Communist Bernie!)"
* Cruz Supporters are soc-con nuts, they literally think Trump (and most of the other candidates) is Satan, and will stay home in a huff if he wins the nomination.
* Trump Cross-over appeal to white working class "Reagan" or "Rustbelt" indies and democrats.
* Hillary's massive unpopularity. And the more people see of her, the less they like her. Massive honesty problem. She is only a few points less 'unfavorable' than Trump
* In the summer/fall of last year, Clinton beat Trump by almost 20 pts in matchups. Now she leads him only by 5 pts.

* Bad Economy or Terror Attack will boost Trump
* Enthusiasm. The kids aren't going to turn out for Hillary like they did for Obama.

* Enthusiasm. The turnout for the GOP primaries has been Yuuuge, among registered, "unlikely", previously apathetic voters - in Trump's working Class demographic.

Hilary is the Jeb Bush candidate, you either love it or hate it.

You guys are funny. The truly stupid...like IQ under 100...I would be willing to bet they make up only a small part of the people who actually vote.

Except maybe in 2008 and 20012. *Ducks and holds up a trashcan lid for a shield*

What are you laughing about, normal shleps like you have IQ in the double digits

It's a colossal mistake for the effete "intellectual" elite and the pajamaboy millenials - displaying their relentless hubris - to think that they are any smarter than DT or his voters.

mell says

It's a colossal mistake for the effete "intellectual" elite and the pajamaboy millenials - displaying their relentless hubris - to think that they are any smarter than DT or his voters.

Yup to that also.

Heraclitusstudent says

nly a total imbecile would think the solution to a corrupted government is either no government at all, or a smaller corrupted government.

Sigh. Exactly who is arguing for "no government"? I know we need government, but we could easily get by and thrive with no public sector unions in our government which would mean more efficient and accountable government. But it would offer less opportunities for corruption and political funds for the Democrats.

Also, only a total imbecile would think that Bernie (let alone Socialism) is the cure for corruption or government.

What's the deal with Venezuela these days? Is this just another example of a country doing Socialism wrong?
http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/18/news/economy/venezuela-economy-meltdown/

socal2 says

What's the deal with Venezuela these days? Is this just another example of a country doing Socialism wrong?

http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/18/news/economy/venezuela-economy-meltdown/

What is wrong with Argentina these days? Economy is in Meltdown after electing a neoliberal, Inflation drops buying power of Minimum Wage to $430 from $600.
http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Argentine-Inflation-Spikes-Under-Macri-Affecting-the-Majority-20160216-0031.html

Closes down Family Farmer's board, their only input into Government policy, to favor Big Agra, which promptly jacked up food prices "Like, to the max."
http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Argentine-President-Lashes-out-at-Small-Scale-Farmers-20160212-0020.html

Started negotiating with Wall Street Vulture Funds who want par for debt they brought for pennies, reversing old policy of telling them to fuck off.
http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Argentina-is-Feeding-the-Vultures-with-New-Debt-Deal------20160215-0014.html

Brand New President Jacks up his Salary
http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/Argentinas-Macri-Bumps-up-His-Salary-by-30-20160211-0054.html

Is Argentina running out of toilet paper too? How about Argentina's crime rate? I believe Venezuela has the 2nd highest homicide rate in the world just behind Honduras.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate

Again, is Venezuela just doing Socialism wrong causing all of this social and economic dysfunction?

socal2 says

Is Argentina running out of toilet paper too? How about Argentina's crime rate? I believe Venezuela has the 2nd highest homicide rate in the world just behind Honduras.

Wow, 1 Death more than the US Virgin Islands, and on par with all it's neighbors, all of whom are top 10% murder rate countries, like right-wing Columbia.

thunderlips11 says

Wow, 1 Death more than the US Virgin Islands, and on par with all it's neighbors, all of whom are top 10% murder rate countries, like right-wing Columbia.

Thought Socialism could fix that with a more equitable society and all that?

Venezuela's homicide rate is almost double of Columbia.

socal2 says

Thought Socialism could fix that with a more equitable society and all that?

It's funny. Unlimited Capitalism proponents are like "It's only been 150 years, give us more time!"

And then they say "You've had a whole decade or so, being opposed by the top 20% of the population at every stage - so where is the socialist utopia!"

thunderlips11 says

t's funny. Unlimited Capitalism proponents are like "It's only been 150 years, give us more time!"

Yes - given more time, Capitalism may even put a bigger dent in worldwide poverty than it already has.
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21578665-nearly-1-billion-people-have-been-taken-out-extreme-poverty-20-years-world-should-aim

Violent crime statistics results from a combination of inter-related socio-economic conditions. To say socialism causes crime is like saying food causes cancer.

Ironman says

It does.

Maybe you should stop eating then.

epitaph says

Violent crime statistics results from a combination of inter-related socio-economic conditions. To say socialism causes crime is like saying food causes cancer.

Funny how we can never blame Marxist movements for the ruin they generate in their societies. What is the difference between Socialism and Communism other than Communism is Socialism with more power?

If we point out that Communist regimes killed hundreds of millions of people and stunted entire generations, we are told "they did Communism wrong!" If we point out that Venezuela is falling apart and one of the murder capitals of the world, we are told "that's not because of Chavez or Socialism!"

Same thing for liberal/progressive policies (Socialism-lite). Is it a coincidence that Cities and States that have been run by Democrats for half a century or longer (Detroit, Chicago, Baltimore, Oakland) have some of the highest crime and dysfunction in America?

socal2 says

Same thing for liberal/progressive policies (Socialism-lite). Is it a coincidence that Cities and States that have been run by Democrats for half a century or longer (Detroit, Chicago, Baltimore, Oakland) have some of the highest crime and dysfunction in America?

That would explain why 9 of the 10 poorest states are republican and 9 of the 10 richest states are democrat.

bob2356 says

That would explain why 9 of the 10 poorest states are republican and 9 of the 10 richest states are democrat.

Poor states are hard on freeloaders.

indigenous says

bob2356 says

That would explain why 9 of the 10 poorest states are republican and 9 of the 10 richest states are democrat.

Poor states are hard on freeloaders.

So that's why msss, alabama, tenn, west va have some of the highest percentage of food stamp users in the country. That good old fashioned conservative government at work creating wealth and opportunity. Sure, right. Too bad you don't know how percentages work so you have no clue what I'm saying.

bob2356 says

So that's why msss, alabama, tenn, west va have some of the highest percentage of food stamp users in the country.

1/3 of all welfare goes to Calif with 12% of the population of the United States.

California is third among states in per-capita spending on welfare:
$179
New York leads the nation:
$256

socal2 says

Thought Socialism could fix that with a more equitable society and all that?

You do realize that the USA uses plenty of socialism. The biggest socialist program in all of human history is the US military. Do you want to get rid of that?

The second biggest socialist program is Social Security. Do you want to get rid of that? 99% of retired people don't.

socal2 says

thunderlips11 says

t's funny. Unlimited Capitalism proponents are like "It's only been 150 years, give us more time!"

Yes - given more time, Capitalism may even put a bigger dent in worldwide poverty than it already has.

Capitalism has done absolutely NOTHING to reduce poverty. Commerce reduces poverty, not capitalism.

Commerce is not capitalism, and capitalism is not commerce. Learn the difference. Every economic system has commerce.

Commerce increases productivity by allowing specialization. Commerce promotes peace by making war less profitable than peaceful, voluntary exchange. Commerce increases technological progress through specialization, which also then increases productivity.

Capitalism does not do ANY of these things.

When people like socal2 say capitalism is really great, they aren't talking about capitalism, but rather commerce, and they don't even understand the difference.

bob2356 says

That would explain why 9 of the 10 poorest states are republican and 9 of the 10 richest states are democrat.

California is considered one of the 10 richest states.

Yet California has the highest poverty and income equality in the nation.
http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article2916749.html

Dan8267 says

Capitalism

I expect Paul Whiteman, Tom McCahill and Fred Waring all considered themselves capitalists. If it was good enough for them, it's good enough for me.

Ironman says

If it wasn't for the military, you wouldn't have the freedom to post all the naked pictures of your old, fat boyfriends from Georgie's here.

Your statement is empirically false. America has not fought a defensive war since the revolution, and the military would be used in suppressing any modern revolution, i.e. they'd be the British in a second American revolution.

The main thing that protects America is that we have only two bordering nations, both of which are allies and extremely friendly with us. Neither would even think of going to war with America today because commerce is orders of magnitude more profitable than warfare.

Ironman says

Dan8267 says

The second biggest socialist program is Social Security.

Sure it is... a tax and fund that people paid into for 50 years before they can see or collect a dime is socialism?

And the military is the FIRST LARGEST. So once again, would you end the military or even reduce it 90% so that its in line with the next 10 biggest military spenders in the world? Unless your answer is an unreserved and resounding "HELL YES!" then you are pro-socialism just like Bernie Sanders.

Once again CIC demonstrates his complete ignorance and inability to think.

P N Dr Lo R says

I expect Paul Whiteman, Tom McCahill and Fred Waring all considered themselves capitalists. If it was good enough for them, it's good enough for me.

Appeal to authority carries no weight. Economics, like all disciplines, is subject to the scientific method. If experimental results do not confirm the theory, then the theory is wrong. Experimental results have contradicted capitalist theory.

Furthermore, capitalism and free markets are mutually exclusive. You cannot uphold both principles as capitalism inevitably results in owners of the means of production using their power to control markets, eliminate actual and potential competitors, and structure the law to maintain their power. This is an intrinsic property of capitalism.

Ironman says

OK Knucklehead... Since you're such a rabid Bernie socialist supporter, if you reduce the military 90%, what do you do with 1.3 MILLION current activity duty service people who are receiving this "socialism".

The same thing that happens with anyone else on welfare. They are fit and able to work. They should get a job in the private sector and contribute to the GDP!

By the way, soldiers get paid jack-diddley-shit. The vast majority of the military budget goes to war profiteers who gauge the tax payers with useless overpriced tanks the army doesn't want but is forced to buy.

Dan8267 says

and structure the law to maintain their power. This is an intrinsic property of capitalism

Sounds good to me. Do you really think those who work and live under socialism don't do the same thing?

Ironman says

But they get the full complement of socialism Bernie is proposing, and then some.... Free healthcare, free college, free room and board, free travel around the world, a check each month, free pension..

I was going to make the same point, but you did it better.