patrick.net

Mr. Newsfreak,

I predict that with a little flexibility, you can still get some decent work in the lean years ahead. The construction in the last couple years is absolute crap, these poor suckers are gonna be calling you in for repair jobs for years and years. Hopefully the smart ones will realize its better to go with an experienced electricity with a history of good jobs, rather than pick up a couple illegal day workers who'll wreck up their house.

It might be worthwhile to check out the current market and see how to position yourself for the future. Get some good references and referrals. See where it takes you.

PS - I just read what I wrote and realized I sounded dreadfully know-it-all and condescending to Mr. Newsfreak, which was totally not my intent! Mr. Newsfreak, I'm sorry that I sounded as a jerk, my heart's really in the right place!

austingal,

Thanks for your great advice! I hope I'll never have to depend on it but I'll be glad of the knowledge if I do.

this time i'm saving casey's text for posterity... one minute he's blaming the gurus, next he's saying it was a sound education for a mere 30 thousand clams on the credit card... sound education alright, at the start he had the money and they had the experience, now the positions are reversed...

Going really OT again, I have two garden related pieces of info.

First is this heirloom seed/poultry/sweet potato company.

http://www.sandhillpreservation.com/

They have hundreds of varieties of tomato seeds alone!

Also, Pleasanton is apparently starting a community garden plot for winter of 2006. It's about $75 a year for a 225 sq ft plot. That seems kinda expensive but at least Pleasanton comes with a really long growing season.

http://www.ci.pleasanton.ca.us/services/recreation/comm-garden.html

So any of you Pleasanton renters with an itch to grow your own, here's your chance!

Going really OT again, I have two garden related pieces of info.

First is this heirloom seed/poultry/sweet potato company.

http://www.sandhillpreservation.com/

They have hundreds of varieties of tomato seeds alone!

Also, Pleasanton is apparently starting a community garden plot for winter of 2006. It’s about $75 a year for a 225 sq ft plot. That seems kinda expensive but at least Pleasanton comes with a really long growing season.

http://www.ci.pleasanton.ca.us/services/recreation/comm-garden.html

So any of you Pleasanton renters with an itch to grow your own, here’s your chance!

DS,

It looks like he posted your comment too. I guess he's getting more comfortable with full disclosure.

He's getting more contrite and I felt a twinge of sorrow for him. But then I remember that he lied and endangered his wife/rest of his family with his stupidity.

Come on Casey, learn from Andy Fastow. Squeal on those RE gurus and crooked MBs, squeal like a pig and hope you get off light.

Mike,

I am registered on USAJobs (the federal government jobs site) and I do poke around. Working for the federal government (the unionized part, not Homeland Security) is a definite consideration, especially if I want to (gasp) raise kids in America one day.

SFWoman,

I haven't bought from Sandhill personally (yet!) but they do come with excellent internet word of mouth. It's a small sustainably farmed business so they're exactly the kind of business that I want to support.

Oh.My God - the Sandhill place has Bantams! Possibly the nicest chickens ever bred, and cute as a button too. Astrid, you're a pal!

And, the flagrant ignorace and disregard of the mentally ill is sadly not just an American problem.

In the UK, under Thatcher and her poodle John Major in the early 90's, someone in power thought it a good idea to tighten up the spending on the National Helath Service and create "Care in the Community". A fabulous depiction of "DoubleSpeak" if ever there was one.

Basically, a lot of long-term residential mental health institutions were shut down, supposedly allowing councils to look after their mentaly ill 'locally'. Of course, what actually happened is that a lot of very ill, institutionalised people were thrown out of thier care facilities to fend for themselves, as many did not have families to look after them, had no income, and were too ill to fend for themsleves.

While emergency psychiatric wards in London can deal with the most acute cases, there's a huge shortage of long-term care available - so while people will be treated for acute episodes, most of them have to return to living on the streets, and the whole cycle begins again.

By some quirk of fate, a huge number of my UK friends are psychiatiric nurses, so I've actually worked in a couple of acute wards on a part-time basis. I can't imagine anything more soul-destroying than not being able to shut off the (often malevolent, viscious and violent) voices in your head. Every time I'd work a shift at Guys or St Thomas' (big London hospitals) I'd always be left with the feelling 'there but for the grace of god go I', as no one is immune from mental illness.

Urk, better off with Bantams...

bantams are like the bonobo chimps of chickens...

Actually, it is surprising we haven’t heard of plans to send mentally ill people themselves offshore to be taken care of.

they did here. they deported a couple of people by mistake, one to germany, one to phillipines. put them in a detention centre for a while and abused them first... it can be hard to know what's going on when someone shows up speaking another language and even masquerading as someone else, altho they showed signs of illness...

http://www.safecom.org.au/cornelia-rau.htm

Wow, the story is now on Fool.com:

http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2006/commentary06092517.htm

hot and cold running maids...

Wow! I love the response! Who knew I could threadjack the same post with minature chickens and partying bath girls?

Not to mention slightly less exotic comments but still very interesting comments about:
mental illness
John Major as a poodle
alternative healthcare avenues
doors leading to nowhere
a 2000 sqft bathroom
feng shui implications for foyers
killing Boomers through grinding poverty
options jargon
stupid Gen-Yers
and a perennial favorite - economically illiterate realtors fudging their numbers.

With this diverse crowd, I don't think the post bubble times will ever get boring.

casey may be an interesting legal test case, in that he is blowing the whistle on a number of other parties, being brokers, lenders and even the RE gurus. he is now blaming himself exclusively in the current incarnation, but the practices of others won't go unconsidered, and any competent defence attorney would have to try to spread the blame to all other parties, even if casey is too naive and 'altruistic' to do it himself.

casey has fallen for the 'fraud by persuasion' antics of the RE gurus and the whole capitalistic, get-rich-quick-by-any-means mindset of his culture.

his continued writings show him to be naive and not comprehending the entire context of his situation. altho he says he is 'altruistic', an aware altruistic person wouldn't be trying to get rich quick the way he has -- there's too much self-interest in what he has done, which is what the RE gurus all put forward: 1) quit your job, and never work again or answer to The Man, except for flipping and rehabbing a bit; and 2) make 4x what you would have made in a day job doing so... altho they're usually all ex-salesmen and fairground spruikers (sometimes literally) and all their money is made selling seminars full-time to fairly dumb people who all want to hear messages 1) and 2), and well they know it...

DS,

The everybody else is doing it defense didn't cut it for Martha Stewart, teenage girlfriends of drug dealers and speeding tickets. Even ignorance of the law is not a legal defense as long as Casey knowingly lied on the application. He doesn't have to know it violated federal law and could get him into trouble, though I'm sure that is also spelt out in fine print on the bottom of the form.

The kid is done. His attorney should focus on trading Serin's quietness for the lender's loan forgiveness, and then Serin needs to work out a deal with the IRS on paying back taxes. And pray that the federal prosecutors do not take an interest in such a small fry (once the big fishes start toppling).

And pray that the federal prosecutors do not take an interest in such a small fry (once the big fishes start toppling).

His story is now on fool.com. It is getting big.

The everybody else is doing it defense didn’t cut it for Martha Stewart, teenage girlfriends of drug dealers and speeding tickets.

i've never said 'everybody is doing it' at all, from memory. the thought never crossed my mind that everyone was doing it. interestingly tho, for some reason GWB was never prosecuted by the SEC for insider trading when he dumped his arbusto shares... to be honest, i haven't read all the gory detail of casey's posts about exactly what he did, but i skimmed some parts where the mortgage brokers did the forms for him and made up an income figure. if there are only civil proceedings in this, do you think the banks will come after him (no money), or the mortgage brokers involved? further, banks have a way of liking to hush things up so as not to scare off the punters or precipitate a crisis of confidence... e.g. they are notoriously tight-lipped about how much they lose thru white collar embezzlement and robberies. they also seem to be able to shut down international keylogging rackets very quickly somehow, even when hosted on servers in russia. and bail out failing credit unions and banks.

the point is, there could be a huge media stink about how dishonest the lenders, brokers and gurus are, and no-one wants that... this kid is clearly utterly naive and clueless, judging from his loose cannon 'altruistic' admissions of everything to the world so far -- he's clearly not a player or a hustler, he shouldn't be in the 'get rich quick in property' game at all...

the more he writes, the more he's gonna piss these players off... he's digging himself a deeper hole all round, but i think it makes him feel better to air it all...

DS,

You didn't argue that specific point but Serin did, he kept saying that he didn't think what he did was really bad and talked about how he felt the entire RE industrial complex had a malodorous air to it. Thus, essentially, he was arguing that everyone else was doing it and what he did wasn't so bad.

Being a gullible fool is better than being a malicious criminal. The prosecution may go for relatively lesser crimes than evidence can support and the jury might only convict on the lesser charges, but overall, SErin appears to have hung himself out to dry by openly admitting that he knowingly lied on loan documents repeatedly.

Overall, contemporary criminal courts are less known for their philosophical depth than their crowded work load. Since Serin provided an open and shut case on his guilt, I don't think it'll be a long or difficult trial.

Also, Serin is hardly the first or the first hundred thousand scammed scammer. This sort of victim-victimizer situation comes up quite frequently. For a recent prominent example, read up on 419 scams. I don't believe, as you appear to believe, that any precedent would be set by State v. Serin.

I think this one would garner more attention than Casey's little mess.

http://tinyurl.com/jbvsm

I don’t believe, as you appear to believe, that any precedent would be set by State v. Serin.

put him on judge judy...

there may not be a state vs serin, depending on how it plays out... i think one of the RE agents told him 'everybody is doing it' actually. the thing is, they could all deny they knew anything about it if questioned, as their advice to him was only verbal -- therefore, he would be the patsy, as they could claim they simply submitted his claimed earnings, took his word that he was going to owner-occupy, etc. they could deny the conversations took place. and finally it's his signature on the forms. [gulp] looks grim...

but i don't know that an overtaxed judicial system skimps on the questions of law before it. corrupt judges, that's another story...

i don't see any new precedents of law being set, when i say 'test case' i mean it will be interesting to see where the blame is apportioned and whether other people are drawn into the net. does 'test case' imply new precedent or ground-shaking new common law? not really -- it requires a judgement to be made on a complex or novel issue or law. is this cut and dried? not really, there are mitigating circumstances at the very least, and outright irresponsibility on the part of the brokers -- meaning the first case where somebody overreached after doing some guru courses and has been prosecuted based on carrying out the advice.

note that the martinsville case (a huge abuse of trust, which shows how pernicious mortgage fraud can be) is currently facing only a civil suit. another very substantial case attracted criminal prosecution.

neil henman's site here has loads of examples of these types of cases also:
http://www.jenman.com.au/NewsArticles1.php?id=195

Hmmmm....looks suspiciously like Dr Girlfriend from The Venture Brothers.....

astrid,

Thanks for the NYT link. You're right it has already been on CNN this morning! How could anyone believe that properties in Indiana would appreciate in a wild fashion is beyond me! What's really shocking is that the FBI estimates mort. fraud at 429 bil. in 2004. Imagine what the total will be for the Double Live Gonzo year of 2005?

To our good friend Casey Serin. I kind of questioned his authenticity b/c I don't know how common a name "Serin" is, but it sounded suspiciously like "Sarin" as in Sarin Gas? Casey as in "Casey at the Bat"? Maybe Nick Danger would have been a little too obvious? Perhaps he chose iaminforeclosure b/c f*ckedborrower was already taken? I (like astrid) ponder as to why a person w/that kind of internet savvy wouldn't have done any homework at all. By the time of his purchases the bubble had already gone mainstream. Also note his home town. SAC! Bust Central.

Ran across this while blogging this morning and it's too good not to share:

All men make mistakes, but married men find out about them sooner.

--Red Skelton

SFWoman,

I'll hollah! I mean what can it hurt? I'm on the phone all day everyday w/nutty people anyway? My guess is the call will be mechanically screened and he'll determine wether I'm a bill collector, with one of his numerous lenders or a reporter like Seth Jayson over w/Motley Fool!

By law I'm not allowed to record calls (although clients can record me) but if I can "work" the guy what kind of questions would you all want me to ask?

RC: Completely OT, but the "matching jumpsuit" comment reminded me of some fun times in med school... During my surgical rotation, we went to see patients at the county hospital. A large part of the practice was medical care for inmates. Imagine doing hernia exams on tattooed, buff, scary looking gangbangers. Now that'll grow hair on your chest!

Called Casey and got classical music until my party could be reached. It's his real number alright and affirms that his web-site is iamscuh-rude.com. Oh, and have a blessed day! Didn't leave a msg. If I were him I'd probably screen my calls too! What msg. should I/we leave?

Hi, this is DinOR from patrick.net and as you may now be aware we've been discussing mortgage fraud and flippers as two of the primary drivers in a bubble we feel could drag down the U.S economy. We're not out to make you a poster child (you kind of did that yourself) for flippers gone mad but we were wondering if you would be a guest blogger on SDCIA and tell other flippers to just throw in the towel? This will accelerate the crash and create a tipping point for the the ARM re-set. Let's "face reality" and admit there's NFW you're going to unload those POS so please just do your "deed in lieu" and drop this whole silly facade. We would really appreciate it! Hollah!

Here's a great comment from one of the drones trying to counter Robert Cote', Tsusiat, Ha Ha, and me on Casey's blog:

#
Matthew
September 27th, 2006 at 11:25 pm

Given your forthrightness people really should forgive your transgressions. They can’t come after us all!

I needn't deconstruct. If these are your allies, you know you have a problem.

DinOR,

Just invite him honestly and simply to be a guest blogger here. I wouldn't inject any judgement or hyperbole into it. He'll get plenty of that in the comments to his thread.

The added benefit is that will then stand as record we can serve up during the discovery phase.

By the way, I left a comment on his blog fairly and clearly warning him that he should listen to his lawyers, stop blogging, and disappear -- hoping that everyone forgets and he can just go through the process quietly.

So, he's been warned. In my opinion, from this point forward (actually from the point where he ignored his attorney's advice) he is begging for his own demise.

Bad, bad Australian Boomers

that's a really weird story. i was at bondi last week, and didn't particularly notice them, heh. i'm just dumbfounded, it's unthinkable, bondi is probably akin to venice beach or something... there are some areas in north bondi they might be able to get away with it... just a temporary problem like possums getting into the roof...

By the way, I left a comment on his blog fairly and clearly warning him that he should listen to his lawyers, stop blogging, and disappear

hmm, absolutely right -- i think wise counsel would be that he keep his head down and stops spilling his guts to the whole world... if he has no judgement, at least his attorney has... but "i just gotta be me!"

"inflation ex inflation"

Robert I'll have to agree. Analysts calling for 3.5-4.5% GDP back in July were making my eyes roll back in my head. I believe you're right, "GDP" has become more a measure of the velocity of money!

(I'm not sure though I could keep a straight face while inviting Casey to our blog). After all, hasn't he suffered enough? LOL! When saddled with a FICO that from that day forth simply be referred to as a "Casey FICO" and a 1099 that could choke a cow he'll know what suffering is!

Question:

There is a very high likelihood that nothing will happen to Mr. Casey aside from the normal financial distress stuff. Not that that isn't bad. But for a very young guy with few assets and really not that much to lose aside from a credit rating -- which he doesn't really grasp yet -- it's not really that much of a penance.

He probably won't get sued. He'll probably lie on his taxes, and no one will catch it. He'll probably not get investigated by a grand jury (Cote's wishes aside).

Of course, we could do a lot to change that. Vindictive? Petty? Righteous? Schadenfreude or just simple Grausamkeit?

Had Casey the sophistication to put one property in Happy Happy Good Time LLC and another in IBNXTSY Enterprises with different fed. tax ID numbers he might have been able to get away with it! Since he had to put his rugu seminars on plastic I doubt that happened.

Can't you just call up the OCC and bid on "non-performing paper". Surely someone there will catch it? Besides doesn't the lender issue a 1099 for "debt forgiven" as income? (That would be tough for anyone to work around).

Randy,

I thought that was a very generously worded and wise note. We'll see if that and Serin's attorney finally shake some sense into his head.

However, I agree with SQT. Serin has already done a lot of damage to himself. txchick57 over at Ben Jones's blog threatened send pdfs of Serin's blog to Serin's creditors. Serin may have already attracted too much heat to have an easy way out.

Now if I was a super-ambitious and altruistic DA, I'd wait one or two years and then forcibly turn Serin state's witness against his lenders. Elliot Spitzer made his name doing this kind of stuff. A publicity savvy DA or US Attorney can get a lot of mileages squeezing huge settlements and getting convictions from the mortgage banking industry.

M. Cote,

Hey, that bilingual stuff makes perfect sense! Public transportation in Oxnard is probably only used by Spanish speakers or people who wants bilingual signage!

(Oye, I'm never gonna get elected to public office)

DinOR,

I doubt Serin has that kind of sophistication. If he did he wouldn't be blogging his predicament in the first place.

M. Cote,

Sorry, I was joking. But really! Wow!

It's funny b/c obviously Casey doesn't even seem to appreciate the gravity of his situation. He's a pretty easy target but how different is what he did from countless other FB's that knew full well the appraisals they were getting on their 4th cash out re-fi in the last 2 1/2 years were nothing more than fluff and hot air?

He came SO LATE to the party to my knowledge he didn't even get a shot at doin' some cash out re-fi's and then go down the road (as we'll find in many, many cases). I'd heard over on Ben's that one poster said in an "affluent" area in FL that some (and I don't have a term for them yet, so) people that couldn't get the appraisal to do cash out re-fi's "sold" their home to their neighbors! And yes, vice versa! Evidently, through this underhanded ploy they were able to bilk the system for another 100/200K! So I guess they settled up for the difference down at the country club?

I'm hardly defending num-nuts but he's got plenty of company.