patrick.net

FortWayne says

What does TRID stand for?

TRID is a new disclosure law that went into effect Oct 3, 2015

So, as usual, everyone rushed their applications to meet the deadline creating a huge number 2 weeks ago which just collapsed, so we are back to normal on the purchase applications data now

Before TRID expired

Today's Number, so you had a 25% increase on applications 2 weeks ago and 28% decrease in applications today

It screws the data lines up

FortWayne says

nm, found it on google. Lenders probably pushed as many mortgages as they could before the deadline.

I talked about it last week here

http://nationalmortgageprofessional.com/news/56018/did-trid-fuel-corybantic-uptick-mortgage-apps

Then gave a interview with Bloomberg today on it.

For people who don't track data everyday the numbers are to wild, but break the story down, then it makes sense

Thanks Logan

Shelter inflation continues to lead the way, accelerated to new cycle high of +3.2% yoy in September

0.11 away from the Fed target

Logan you got to explain those charts for simpletons like me. I have no idea what I'm looking at.

FortWayne says

Logan you got to explain those charts for simpletons like me. I have no idea what I'm looking at.

Orange Line is the rent inflation portion of the CPI index YoY ( year over year)

The blue line are all items outside of food, shelter and energy

Federal Reserve likes to stick to the core inflation rate of the CPI which is the 2nd cahrt

Blue line is core and the Red is everything headline and due to energy it's down big

Logan Mohtashami says

Orange Line is the rent inflation portion of the CPI index YoY ( year over year)

The blue line are all items outside of food, shelter and energy

Federal Reserve likes to stick to the core inflation rate of the CPI which is the 2nd cahrt

Blue line is core and the Red is everything headline and due to energy it's down big

Looks like luxuries get cheaper and necessities get more expensive. That's what I'm getting out of that chart.

FortWayne says

Looks like luxuries get cheaper and necessities get more expensive. That's what I'm getting out of that chart.

Demographics were more for renting in this cycle, however, on top of that you have millions were lost their homes which added to rental demand curve as well.

So, without the proper supply chain for all that demand your inflation rate stays strong.

This new chart shows that we are soon due for the next recession. Damn this government, we haven't even gotten out of this one yet even.

FortWayne says

This new chart shows that we are soon due for the next recession. Damn this government, we haven't even gotten out of this one yet even.

For a recession

We need to see claims rise above 300K without a one time economic event, 323K is my number, I don't see any recessionary economic trends,
You do have oil states getting hit hard with the oil crash, but everything else is working in a non recessionary environment. Profit margins probably have peaked but the we have a skilled labor shortage in American today

FortWayne says

This new chart shows that we are soon due for the next recession

When this break over 300K on a 4 week moving average without a one time economic event such as Sandy (the flood) was then
you can start talking about a possible recession data line curve

Logan Mohtashami says

When this break over 300K on a 4 week moving average without a one time economic event such as Sandy (the flood) was then

you can start talking about a possible recession data line curve

Thanks Logan. I'm just trying to understand the chart. The gray bars are recessions. All I'm looking is at the time periods between them. It just looks like all other periods have been pretty short compared to one now, so it feels like another grey bar should show up any minute on that chart now.

Is that not a right way to look at it? I don't understand this stuff, so would like to be put right where I'm wrong.

FortWayne says

Is that not a right way to look at it? I don't understand this stuff, so would like to be put right where I'm wrong.

When unemployment claims rise, that usually means profit margins have gotten so bad that the demand curve has led to people being laid off to get the companies finances from getting too much out of whack on the balance sheet

Obviously some company's can handle down turns better than others

However, once you get to this low in claims, if you get unemployment claims 4 week moving average to My level at least 323K which gets adjusted every time the 4 week moving average goes lower... then you can see that the economic backdrop is showing a negative YoY trend in the demand curve, over investment is a key factor into the equation as well.

Even with the 200K-300K oil jobs lost, that isn't enough to make claims rise in a meaningful way.

So, if there is just one economic data line I was allowed to follow, it's this one

Thank you for clarification. This helps.

Ironman says

Who's left to fire when you have 100 million currently not working?

We don't have 100 Million people out of work, that numbers is very misleading,

We are very demographically heavy ages 16-24 and 55 and over which that 100 million number gets thrown out

Prime working age Americans ages 25-54 are missing 2.9 million form the peak of housing bubble and 4.2 million from the peak of the stock market bubble

For housing, ages 28-42 matter the most in terms of the prime working age that people will be buying and that group is starting to grow again

Ironman says

Why the drop in the LFPR of the 25-54 then? There is another population bubble in that lower range.

This has been a open talking debate point for a good 10 years now

This my thesis on this and the Census website I encourage everyone to check out to show why demographics matter in economic talk
http://www.census.gov/popclock/?intcmp=home_pop

We are very Heavy Ages 12-29

This group below in the prime working age group based on all the data I have seen over the last decade has been struggling

- High School Drop outs
- Non college educated Americans
- Drug users ( Those not in institutions)
- Criminal active Americans ( those not in jail)_
- Unskilled trade school Americans
- Those with a criminal background, males in high %, which stays on the resume

( Also) Women staying home because child care cost are high and it doesn't make financial sense

So, this group above with the demographic push of Americans into the system to me are the majority of the push out in the economic cycle with 152 million working Americans and miss the 2.9 million to 4.2 million since 2000

It seems to me that the 10 million on permanent disability are a factor as well.

indigenous says

bob2356 says

WTF is the difference between

the same diff as your asshole and a hole in the ground, your libby mentality prevents you from seeing a diff, can't help you.

Taxi driver picks someone up in a car and takes them somewhere. Uber driver picks someone up in a car and takes them somewhere. Curiosity overwhelms me, exactly what difference to you see in this whole new field?

Just because you can't defend your positions don't get rude.

Uber uses cell phones and some software to make for a more competitive company.

indigenous says

Uber uses cell phones and some software to make for a more competitive company.

More competitive because they are sidestepping the government protection of profits of traditional taxi's, not because using a cell phone has any great advantage. Plenty of limo and taxi companies use cell phones for dispatch. They existed before uber. You can buy any of dozens of systems for your taxi fleet right now like this one . http://www.limontaxi.com/

Ok, how is getting a radio call more efficient than getting a text? Where exactly is the savings? The only savings is using the app to automatically send out the dispatch without human intervention. So once again you are making my argument for me. Technology is NET destroying jobs not creating them. How many programmers do you think it took to write the uber app? How many unemployed or soon to be unemployed taxi dispatchers do you think there are?

Stay in school kids!

I saw on shitty yahoo finance this morning that 30 yr mortgage rates were down to 3.79% from 3.91% a week ago

Amerisave didnt send me any different quotes reflecting any actual drop. I only follow it loosely as i last re-fi'd at 3.5% in 2012, and only reason I'd re-fi again would be 15yr @ 2.5% or lower with minimal fees.

But it also feels like the time is right for the next leg down in mortgage rates

errc says

But it also feels like the time is right for the next leg down in mortgage rates

If 10's can break this tough 2% 10 year channel line, and get some next day follow through action, you see a test of 1.87% on 10's which if that breaks then
you can retest the lows of the year at 1.64%

bob2356 says

More competitive because they are sidestepping the government protection

Governments always follows technology, it takes time for them to figure out how to sink their claws into the new technology.

bob2356 says

Ok, how is getting a radio call more efficient than getting a text? Where exactly is the savings? The only savings is using the app to automatically send out the dispatch without human intervention.

It eliminates the dispatcher and provides quicker services and holds the driver accountable, hence higher quality, faster service, for less money.

indigenous says

So once again you are making my argument for me. Technology is NET destroying jobs not creating them. How many programmers do you think it took to write the uber app? How many unemployed or soon to be unemployed taxi dispatchers do you think there are?

It is not a zero sum game. It is about the principle you choose to ignore that was pointed out to us by David Ricardo. Otherwise the farmers would still being looking for work from the early 1900s.

Logan Mohtashami says

Stay in school kids!

Most succesful people were drop outs or had really bad grades.

FortWayne says

Most succesful people were drop outs or had really bad grades

When we talk about the masses, we can't use anomaly's as the norm or even as a reference point to discuss about general education in relationship to a mass population pool

Hence why uneducated people in mass do worse than those who are education, this has always been the case when we look at the bigger picture of education economics

Logan Mohtashami says

When we talk about the masses, we can't use anomaly's as the norm or even as a reference point to discuss about general education in relationship to a mass population pool

Hence why uneducated people in mass do worse than those who are education, this has always been the case when we look at the bigger picture of education economics

Wasn't referring to it on a massive scale. I apologize for not making that clear.

Here is a take from the Wall Street Journal on the missing 2.9 million from the peak of the housing bubble on ages 25-55 ( Prime Working Age Labor Force)

Why are more 25 to 55-year-olds out of the labor force? Mostly disability and school: http://on.wsj.com/1LLo3Ie

They have been talking about 10 million more on disability for some time. Thx O

indigenous says

They have been talking about 10 million more on disability for some time.

Disability payouts more for renting demand curve economics, ....

Home buyers tend to be college educated dual income or strong single income Americans, which for all the reasons mentioned in the article, just isn't that strong in this cycle