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If the bubble returns to the BA, what will you do?


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2012 Apr 2, 1:35am   98,228 views  255 comments

by edvard2   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

This might have been posted before but what the heck. Its worth revisiting. How many of you think the bubble will return? Of those of you out there looking- and not just those looking in the fortress areas- what are you seeing? Much of the same or have things changed?

Secondly, if another bubble rears its ugly head, what would you do?

A: panic and buy a house ( or get priced out foreva'!)
B: Say: "Screw it, I'm moving
C: Stay and continue to rent
D: ( for those that already own) brag about how much your house is worth.
E: None of the above.

#bubbles

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235   Serpentor   2012 Apr 7, 6:27pm  

Whenever someone mentions motor swap, the answer is always the LS series (yes GM) small block v8. Despite the large displacement, the ohv design means it can fit in a compartment a small as a Solstice. Its AL block/heads and low part count means light weight and low cg. (its lighter then the iron block tiny bmw motors). With the proper 6speed which you'll prob get from the same donor car, the fuel milage will be in the 30mpg+ range highway. Aftermarket parts are cheap and some has already done the swap in an E30.
Dont bother with modest power gains that will still pale compared to modern Japanese 4 bangers. With this swap you'll be running with the big boys and smoking modern M5s

236   Serpentor   2012 Apr 7, 6:36pm  

Oh if you want feed back, go test drive an Elise. $25k will get you a decent used one with the reliable Toyota/yamaha drive train, telepathic steering, and unreal cornering.

237   bmwman91   2012 Apr 8, 2:38am  

Serpentor says

Whenever someone mentions motor swap, the answer is always the LS series (yes GM) small block v8. Despite the large displacement, the ohv design means it can fit in a compartment a small as a Solstice. Its AL block/heads and low part count means light weight and low cg. (its lighter then the iron block tiny bmw motors). With the proper 6speed which you'll prob get from the same donor car, the fuel milage will be in the 30mpg+ range highway. Aftermarket parts are cheap and some has already done the swap in an E30.

Dont bother with modest power gains that will still pale compared to modern Japanese 4 bangers. With this swap you'll be running with the big boys and smoking modern M5s

Oh, an LS swap has been on my radar for a while. A few E30 guys have done it. It is a super labor-intensive project, but most definitely worth it from what I can tell. I have no issues with putting a Chevy small block into a BMW. However, it is way too much work that I would have to do in borrowed space, and it would put my car out of commission for 5-6 months. Well, that and no good can come from me having that much power in a car. I would either end up dead or in jail. My personal take on street cars with 300HP or more is that they have no real purpose. They are fun, but dangerous to have fun with in public and really should just be used on the track. After I almost died in a car that I crashed while driving like a moron in 2005, my view on "performance" cars changed a bit.

The Elise would be loads of fun. Alas, I want the option of cramming 4 people & a load of climbing gear into the vehicle as well. The Elise would be a car I'd buy ONLY to drive for fun since it is really not very practical. And, at least in Mountain View, there are way too many of those darting around the area as it is. I want something a little more unique, even if it isn't going to be blowing the doors off of new sports cars. The MM motors are ridiculously reliable and the power band is well adjusted. My opinion is that ~210HP in an E30 is the perfect amount for a street car. More than that, and you have to start rolling fenders to fit more rubber in there to keep the wheels down.

I have driven cars with a lot more power than that, and it is loads of fun. The thing is though, that I can't trust myself to behave with it when in public. I'd either end up in a lot of trouble, or if I behaved, the car would just be a waste of money. Laguna Seca is pretty close by here, and when I have the space & cash for it, I am building a dedicated track vehicle that I can go nuts with & not worry about driving legally (since it would never touch a public road).

238   anonymous   2012 Apr 8, 3:51am  

Mick Russom says

Having seen the books for several wealthy people, most of the people who I know who are retired rich lived well below their means

It's easy to live below your means when you make 50mill a year, isn't it?

239   xenogear3   2012 Apr 8, 6:38am  

Most people don't live below their means.

Why? you cannot bring money to heaven/hell after death.

240   bmwman91   2012 Apr 8, 9:05am  

xenogear3 says

Most people don't live below their means.

Why? you cannot bring money to heaven/hell after death.

True. However, you may be able to quit working & spend the last third of your life spending your time on whatever you choose if you live cheap & keep things simple.

241   anonymous   2012 Apr 8, 9:07am  

Hysteresis says

From the book "Millionaire Teacher: The Nine Rules of Wealth You Should Have Learned in School", Thomas Stanley, wealth researcher and author of "The Millionaire Mind" and "The Millionaire Next Door" conducted a survey and found:

"""Most US homes valued at a million dollars or more (as of 2009) were not owned by millionaires.
Instead, the majority of million-dollar homes were owned by non-millionaires with large mortgages and very expensive tastes.

In sharp contrast, 90 percent of those who met the defined criterion to be a millionaire -- having a net worth of more than $1 million -- lived in homes valued at less than a million dollars."""

As someone that works in statistics, I take issue with the above research. Stats can be used to prove any point you want, and if taken out of context, are meaningless.

Thomas Stanley tended to concentrate his research in small/medium cities in the US, away from the right/left coasts.

Many millionaires living pretty much anywhere other than California/New York can live in an amazing mansion for $500k, not remotely possible in SF/LA/NY.

Should his survey be limited to people in the top 5 major metro areas, I think he'd get a different result.

242   bubblesitter   2012 Apr 8, 9:42am  

bmwman91 says

True. However, you may be able to quit working & spend the last third of your life spending your time on whatever you choose if you live cheap & keep things simple.

Way to go,but that's not the American way. Mind set of people is set to take debt. It is the system and I am one of the few who refuse to accept that system. I paid for my car upfront rather then borrowing. :)

243   bmwman91   2012 Apr 8, 10:46am  

bubblesitter says

bmwman91 says

True. However, you may be able to quit working & spend the last third of your life spending your time on whatever you choose if you live cheap & keep things simple.

Way to go,but that's not the American way. Mind set of people is set to take debt. It is the system and I am one of the few who refuse to accept that system. I paid for my car upfront rather then borrowing. :)

Aaah, nevermind, couldn't detect the sarcasm through the intertubes.

244   bubblesitter   2012 Apr 8, 2:18pm  

bmwman91 says

Aaah, nevermind, couldn't detect the sarcasm through the intertubes.

By the way,congrats on getting heck of 22 years out of your BMW. I am jealous(as some one of this forum used to accuse me,repeatedly). :)

245   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Apr 8, 2:35pm  

Goran_K says

bmwman91, we salute you!

bmwman91, buy the motor already. BA people have lost that kind of loot in a week. Last week as an example.

246   BoomAndBustCycle   2012 Apr 8, 4:31pm  

bmwman91 says

xenogear3 says

Most people don't live below their means.

Why? you cannot bring money to heaven/hell after death.

True. However, you may be able to quit working & spend the last third of your life spending your time on whatever you choose if you live cheap & keep things simple.

Odds are greater the last 3rd of your life you will have an ailment that keeps you from enjoying your life as much as earlier too.

247   Austinhousingbubble   2012 Apr 8, 7:23pm  

BoomAndBustCycle says

Most people don't live below their means.

Why? you cannot bring money to heaven/hell after death.

True. However, you may be able to quit working & spend the last third of your life spending your time on whatever you choose if you live cheap & keep things simple.

Odds are greater the last 3rd of your life you will have an ailment that keeps you from enjoying your life as much as earlier too.

Ultimately, the bottomest of the bottom lines is, do whatever you think best facilitates your pursuit of happiness, as long as it doesn't involve impeding anyone else's pursuit of the same. After all, where is the pleasure in living your life like an actuarial scientist?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2012/feb/01/top-five-regrets-of-the-dying

248   bubblesitter   2012 Apr 9, 12:02am  

BoomAndBustCycle says

Odds are greater the last 3rd of your life you will have an ailment that keeps you from enjoying your life as much as earlier too.

Oh really? So explain then how is it the first 2/3rd you will enjoy?

249   Mick Russom   2012 Apr 9, 2:54am  

SubOink says

It's easy to live below your means when you make 50mill a year, isn't it?

As someone who is house poor you would know.

250   bmwman91   2012 Apr 9, 3:09am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Goran_K says

bmwman91, we salute you!

bmwman91, buy the motor already. BA people have lost that kind of loot in a week. Last week as an example.

Working on it today. My only concern is the 11.5:1 compression...that will increase NOx emissions and I need to be able to pass CA SMOG! I think I'll pass on the rebuilt transmission & differential since the ones in the car are fine and usually don't die unless you abuse them, and $4500 is a lot to drop on two parts that aren't broken! I have a psare transmission laying around somewhere anyway lol.

So as to keep up the appearance of not hijacking this thread...I think that the BA is still in a bubble. It looks like 2012 is either going to be a year of mild re-inflation, or at the very least a year of no deflation (in the peninsula & SV areas).

Since analogies are fun, this is my take on "the bubble." Most people here think of water & dish soap bubbles. They are weak and will POP without warning after a short time. Being a car nut, and looking at what has been going on in the BA, I think that our bubble is more akin to a blistered figerglass shell. Damaged layers delaminate & can form very large bubbles. You can't pop them because the bubble is made of structural material. Fixing them involves stripping the bad layers off, cutting that section out & completely rebuilding it. The difference between popping a soap bubble & repairing a delaminated fiberglass structure is more or less how I see the difference between the RE bubble in most of the US, versus the RE bubble in the BA. RE in the BA is rotten to the core and it is a structural issue. Only something major is going to "fix" this, and anyone that has done work with fiberglass knows just how unpleasant, uncomfortable and even dangerous (without proper safety precautions) it can be! So it is with the BA too.

251   clambo   2012 Apr 9, 3:36am  

I don't understand the original question. I thought the bay area bubble never completely popped yet.

252   rootvg   2012 Apr 9, 4:33am  

clambo says

I don't understand the original question. I thought the bay area bubble never completely popped yet.

Some places did, other places did not. Some will not, such as Palo Alto.

Our place was valued at $1.2M at the peak. We bought it in the low sixes because it was fixer. The houses around us are all owned by older people who've been here for years and are valued anywhere between $750-800K. The foreclosure down the street (that smelled like mold) was on the market for one week before going pending.

This isn't Columbus.

253   anonymous   2012 Apr 9, 8:41am  

Mick Russom says

SubOink says

It's easy to live below your means when you make 50mill a year, isn't it?

As someone who is house poor you would know.

house poor?

254   clambo   2012 Apr 9, 8:51am  

Did you guys read about the billionaire Nicolas Bergguen who just lives in hotels?
Chicks still dig him. Imagine that.
Something tells me he's not dealing with pajama parties, pampers, school pta meetings either.
Something also tells me he is not dating any fat chicks.

255   hanera   2012 Apr 9, 10:04am  

rootvg says

clambo says

I don't understand the original question. I thought the bay area bubble never completely popped yet.

Some places did, other places did not. Some will not, such as Palo Alto.

Which neighborhood didn't pop?

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