patrick.net

zzyzzx says

Don't worry! The Housing Experrs of PatNet insist your rate will fall.

zzyzzx says

It will go down to ~5%! (Not me, someone else here believes that)

zzyzzx says

Reeeeeeeeeeeeeee-- ...version to the mean.

We're probably in the "things are back to normal" part of the double peak.

Heh.

It's different this time.

Permanent Plateau Realtors say
But inventory builds each way
Climbs the wall of worry every day

House Prices are up where they don't belong
Easy Money inflated, COVID demand related
Housing costs up where it don't belong
Reversion to mean is far below
30-year rates so high, where jetstreams blow

Time goes by
Rates still high
Record Price Demands
While Inventory Expands

Prices are up where they don't belong
As rental rates get smashed, cry "but Investors with cash!"
Costs up where it don't belong
Agents need so much cope,
Rates will drop is their dope.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cOaUTHQV7g

Eman says

No Bay Area, San Jose or San Francisco?

Return to normal before fear, capitulation, and despair?

Bring on the FUD!

All you cats are living in different realities. You're in FL, CA or any coastal areas. If you guys drop it drags down the national numbers. That's not the reality for much of the country. Or you're experiencing your first exodus of population. Been there done that in IL. We're extremely stable even though I hate the governor.

Cities are toast as millennials move out from party town and start moving right and forming families. The $500k 2/2 bachelor pads are going to plummet. The floor is high though as Boomers will die and/or give the house to the kids. I don't have a care in my location. I'm up $200k in a decade in a low cost of living area.

EBGuy says

Eman says

No Bay Area, San Jose or San Francisco?

Return to normal before fear, capitulation, and despair?

@EBGuy,

What do you think? Say the HPI for our market is currently at 340. Will it come down to 260-270, or will it come down to 200-220?

WookieMan says

The floor is high though as Boomers will die and/or give the house to the kids.

Who will rent it out and depress rents, or all be selling them about the same time.

Amber and Dylan living and working in SFBA or Asheville don't want to bothered maintaining a house outside of Phoenix or Tampa. And since it's one property, not really worth the management costs.

If they aren't stuck and don't have kids, what are they going to do with a 4/2 in The Villages or Goodyear?

Sherry reeee bay ay bee! C'mon Dylan, let's go! More 50s and 60s music at the La Boca Vista Community Center!



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQhqsopzJf8

Florida housing inventory back up to pre COVID levels
https://www.floridarealtors.org/tools-research/reports/florida-market-reports

This tool provided by Florida Realtors® gives up to date data on the market. Both SFH and Townhouses/condos months of supply on inventory has now eclipsed the levels seen on Jan 2020.

SFH at 3.8 months currently, 3.4 months 4 years ago.

-Townhouse/condos at 5.8 months currently, 5.5 months Jan 2020.

Prices still high, foreclosures are low, but the inventory has been increasing rapidly.

Lots of supply currently getting built all over the state that has yet to come to the market.

Instead of "months of supply", it would be better if they just stated the number of properties for sale.

Today there are much fewer transactions than back 4 years ago, so months supply is misleading.

Misc says

Instead of "months of supply", it would be better if they just stated the number of properties for sale.

Today there are much fewer transactions than back 4 years ago, so months supply is misleading.

I think it's because months supply is a better measure of if it's a buyers market or a sellers market.

AmericanKulak says

More 50s and 60s music at the La Boca Vista Community Center!

Rocket to shut down origination channel for real estate and insurance agents.

Rocket Companies has announced its decision to discontinue Rocket Pro Originate, a key mortgage origination platform for real estate agents and financial professionals, aiming to pivot towards enhancing support for mortgage brokers. This move, scheduled for completion by June 2024, reflects a strategic adjustment in Rocket’s business model to prioritize growth and resource optimization in the housing market.

https://assetmarketnews.com/brokers/rocket-companies-phases-out-rocket-pro-originate-refocuses-on-mortgage-broker-support/

https://www.redfin.com/news/florida-condo-prices-dropping/

Florida’s Condo Prices Are Falling As Cost of Insurance and HOA Fees Skyrocket

zzyzzx says

Florida’s Condo Prices Are Falling As Cost of Insurance and HOA Fees Skyrocket

Nominal to profile. Every 10-15 years...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPgpYux8HJQ

AmericanKulak says

Florida’s Condo Prices Are Falling As Cost of Insurance and HOA Fees Skyrocket

Our Panama City Beach townhome HOA master insurance is holding steady from 2022 to 2024. It went up from $50,000 in 2018 to $230,000 in 2022.

It is now around $250,000 in 2024.

The insurance company told the HOA board of directors there are more competitors coming to the Florida insurance market and they expect no more +20% increases per year.

.

FL Condo Act now forces boards to inspect and repair or reserve for known future repairs.

The fallout:

American Kulak, as far as Florida boomer demographics, is that because the older boomers are dying off in Florida and you see that much of a cumulative drop by 2035 ?

Look at south Florida like Boca Raton with the elderly Jewish population originally from the northeast...they were spotlighted in the November 2000 as far as making mistakes with the butterfly ballots

one theory why Trump did well in 2016 and 2020 in Palm Beach County was that a lot of those Jewish people died off and were not replaced with liberal voters

.

Insurance AINT going down in Florida, and here's why:

Citizens Property Insurance Corp., Florida’s residual but still-largest property insurer, has posted new information about when and where flood insurance is required for policyholders.

The Florida Legislature last year approved Senate Bill 2A, making big changes to laws governing claims litigation and requiring most Citizens’ policyholders to also obtain flood insurance within three years. The idea, supporters of the bill said, was to help push homeowners back to the primary market and help protect Citizens from legal disputes over wind-versus-water damage.

This year, lawmakers revised the law slightly to exclude policyholders who own condominiums on upper floors.

The bulletin from Citizens, posted Aug. 22, explains the phase-in of the flood requirement:

Starting in January 2024, all structures with a replacement value of $600,000 must obtain flood insurance.
The value requirement of the structure drops until 2027, when all Citizens-covered structures, regardless of value, must maintain flood coverage.
The insurer said it will soon send more information to agents, including a list of their affected policies.

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/southeast/2023/08/24/737718.htm

This will include structures NOT in a Flood Plain.

AmericanKulak says

FL Condo Act now forces boards to inspect and repair or reserve for known future repairs.

yeah well think about what happened when that Surfside (North Miami Beach) condo parking structure collapsed resulting in at least 80 deaths

one thing that surprises me is that the condo's master insurance company did not send out inspectors to check the condition of that building and threaten to cancel the policy based on their inspections

We lived in a 2 story condo building at Bay Point in Panama City Beach and the master insurance company would walk and inspect the buildings every year doing everything from checking the roofs from the inside attics to checking fire extinguisher inspection tags .... they forced the HOA to fix a sidewalk that was being lifted by tree roots

By the way, as a completely clean driver, my FL auto went up almost 20% last year, too. I shopped around and I have the best rate by almost $50/year.

AmericanKulak says

This will include structures NOT in a Flood Plain.

Yes, I knew Citizen Insurance was going to do that. I think its going to reduce the cost of flood insurance overall since it will at least increase the number of homes insured with flood insurance by at least 200%.

.

AD says

one thing that surprises me is that the condo's master insurance company did not send out inspectors to check the condition of that building and threaten to cancel the policy based on their inspections

They actually did, it started with water pouring into the underbuilding garage. The Assoc hired structure inspectors who identified the pilings problems years before collapse.

The Condo President actually quit because at the meeting to vote on raising money to slowly make repairs, a few years before the collapse, some old wise ass gave a long "Listen Jack, I'm Not paying! It'll be Fine and I'm a Fixed Income Malarky! I ain't givin' up my trip to the Conch Shack each week to pay for this fibbletegibble! " and got a majority to vote with him.

AmericanKulak says

some old wise ass gave a long "Listen Jack, I'm Not paying! It'll be Fine

I hope he died in that collapse. If not, he needs to be publicly outed or doxed, and then shamed for the rest of his life.

.

This is very common in Florida, esp. older buildings/assocs.

These geezers act like they're choosing between dog food and not eating over $50 extra bucks a month to fix things over the long haul, when it's really about that extra trip to Conchy Joe's or a new Golf Bag. Lots of these guys have old school pensions of 65% last 3 years salary plus guaranteed COLA on top of investments on top of selling a home up North they brought for $30k for $200k.

Even in trailer parks, they'll push for a card reader so no whippasnappas drive faster than 30mph and overturn their golf cart (which they are speed demons on), while leaving the State park-adjacent fencing gone on half the back of the property, so all the meth heads wander at night. Since they fall asleep after Wheel of Fortune, they don't notice the zombies prowling about.

Not all old folks are like that but some of the geezers are cheap and have plenty of time to fight their corner for their Saturday Hard Rock Casino outing with the girls.

AmericanKulak says

The Condo President actually quit because at the meeting to vote on raising money to slowly make repairs,

I am surprised the insurance company did not red flag that building and monitor it going back several years when the inspectors identified the problems.

That is a red flag as they should have cancelled the policy early enough.

Then the condo HOA would have to shop around and likely be forced to make the repairs as contingency to getting adequate coverage from the insurance company.

Don't know if you all remember when that Titanic submersible imploded there were emails leaked after that disaster which cited that the CEO who died in that implosion had said he did not want American Bureau of Shipping to be the classification authority because it employs "old white men who are US Navy veterans".

That goes to the same context as far as insurance and classification ; ABS would have shut that submersible down until it met certain safety standards.

Yeah, the laws were pretty loose here.

I don't even think Condo Assocs of 8+ Story buildings were obligated to get inspections, except in the CITY of Miami and a few other places, at ANY intervals. I say CITY of Miami because it wasn't a Miami-Dade County Law, and Miami Beach is it's own City seperate from Miami.

The new law sets either a 25 or 30 years since construction mandated inspection, problems or no problems.

We're seeing problems now from the 80s Cocaine Condo Construction Binge, and a lot of developers rammed through some pretty lenient laws for seaside high story buildings.

AmericanKulak says

old school pensions of 65% last 3 years salary plus guaranteed COLA

The only source I can think of this is either federal government pensions CSRS (not FERS), which means they were hired before Reagan's second term.

Or its a state pension like New York.

.

AD says

AmericanKulak says

old school pensions of 65% last 3 years salary plus guaranteed COLA

The only source I can think of this is either federal government pensions CSRS (not FERS), which means they were hired before Reagan's second term.

Or its a state pension like New York.

.

Yep. I know a guy who retired in the 2000s and worked for NYS since the 1960s. I saw his check and it was $6k something. But there's a lot of retired military or MIC contractors with big checks or two decent checks (military and Boeing/Lockheed) every month, plus investments, Soc Sec, etc.

He's a flaming Liberal and everytime I pass by, PMSNBC is on.

AmericanKulak says

MIC contractors with big checks or two decent checks (military and Boeing/Lockheed) every month, plus investments, Soc Sec, etc.

Lockheed (or Lockmart) as well as the rest of the major MIC's like Boeing stopped their defined pension plans and went 401k path at least 35 years ago.

So you are talking people who worked at Lockmart from 1950 to 1985 and got 25 years of pension credit.

The "military guys" can get a military pension for +20 years of service plus a VA disability (if rated at least 50% then not deducted from military pension) plus get social security.

This guy who worked for NY State since 1960s has to be at least 75 years old.

.

AmericanKulak says

80s Cocaine Condo Construction Binge

Understand.

I just know before the Surfside building collapse, that in Panama City Beach the insurance companies would hire and send in professional engineers along with general contractors to inspect the condos from roof to foundation.

The insurance companies usually have on speed dial or retainer what you call "forensic engineers" which were mostly PEs with civil engineering background or mechanical engineers who could perform civil engineering work. These are the engineers they would send in once a year to inspect their buildings.

.

AD says

Lockheed (or Lockmart) as well as the rest of the major MIC's like Boeing stopped their defined pension plans and went 401k path at least 35 years ago.

As a member of the military industrial complex, I can confirm that I don't have a defined benefit pension here.

My county in Virginia just sent out assessment notices. Massive increase averaging about 25%, mine was actually 36% which means my real estate tax will be about $2,000 higher next year. I plan to go to the next county board meeting just to see the reaction from all these citizens who will also see massive tax increases. I am sure the county supervisors are dreading the April meetings.

My prop taxes went down in Idaho about 20%. Amazing how that never happens in a blue state.

HeadSet says

My county in Virginia just sent out assessment notices. Massive increase averaging about 25%, mine was actually 36% which means my real estate tax will be about $2,000 higher next year. I plan to go to the next county board meeting just to see the reaction from all these citizens who will also see massive tax increases. I am sure the county supervisors are dreading the April meetings.

They are trying to catch up with the increase in home market values ? I know some counties are slow to increase the assessment rate when home values increase a lot.

Virginia should not be bad off due to all the federal guvmint money there (active duty, federal civil servants, military industry / Newport News Shipyard, etc) especially compared to California's budget deficit for 2024. Also tourism is a sizeable industry in Virginia, go to the vineyards starting about 50 miles west of downtown Washington DC like Crysallis Vineyard and drink Sarah's Patio Red.

Florida has a law called Save Our Homes (SOH). It is a property tax cap amendment to Florida's constitution, homestead property assessments can't increase more than 3% from the previous assessment period. (The cap for non-homestead properties is 10%.)

The trick in Florida is when you sell your home the buyer has a period of non homestead exemption which can range from 1 day to 364 days depending on when the county starts accepting new applications for homestead exemption. That is when the county can issue a 10% increase in the property tax instead of a 3% increase.

.
....

Nothing says prices going up quite like free money. Biden's proposing $10000 in free money for 1st time homebuyers and $10000 to the people who sell their homes that have a mortgage.

As a special freebie offer for illegals $25000 in down payment assistance.

It's only your taxes.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/biden-has-a-plan-to-make-homeownership-more-affordable-here-s-what-it-could-mean-for-hopeful-homebuyers/ar-BB1jzVXY?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=1d4564ac011f45c88696c3c60ba42747&ei=143

Misc says

Nothing says prices going up quite like free money. Biden's proposing $10000 in free money for 1st time homebuyers and $10000 to the people who sell their homes that have a mortgage.

As a special freebie offer for illegals $25000 in down payment assistance.

It's only your taxes.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/biden-has-a-plan-to-make-homeownership-more-affordable-here-s-what-it-could-mean-for-hopeful-homebuyers/ar-BB1jzVXY?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=1d4564ac011f45c88696c3c60ba42747&ei=143

These are designed to keep the prices of home high.

AD says

This guy who worked for NY State since 1960s has to be at least 75 years old.

He is, I'd say about 80.

The peak birth year for boomers is 1957, so we are now past almost all Boomers being Soc Sec eligible.

Now it's time for bum knees, COPD, strokes, and heart attacks that make walking up to the 2nd story of the Condo Building or Townhouse or rare FL SFH being out of reach (breath?)

Add the explosion in condo assoc fees from needed reserves, insurance increases, etc. and it's prime selling time that can't be delayed.