patrick.net

Evan F. says

undoubtedly going to have to pay a lot more than $85k.

Money is not a problem for ppl in finance. I can easily pay $5 per gallon and it wouldn't hurt my bottom line. If you recall from my Tesla ownership thread below, I have livery service, I don't even need a car. When a person sees someone pull up in a limo, they know he's important.

http://patrick.net/post/1318339/2018-08-20-i-have-a-friend-who-drives-a-tesla-i-say-so-what

Now, talk to those Nissan Maxima owners, between Boston & DC, who have a regular job, to invest in a Tesla instead of keeping their Maximas. If you can win over that market then yes, Tesla's got a future!

In fact, I'll officially apologize once you win over that demographic in the Boston-DC corridor, the Midwest, and the Texas Triangle.

Evan F. says

Just one more rebuttal of the Delorean comparison: Delorean shipped about 9000 DMC-12's in total. Tesla has shipped well north of 300,000 units and their sales figures are still accelerating. And I would argue that Tesla's design is in some ways better than the Delorean... The Teslas have simple, smooth lines. They don't look jaw dropping but they sure look nice and clean. The DMC is iconic, but boxy and awkward.

1970s vs today, boxy was "in" back then. Today, it's all about smooth lines.

And as for today, Tesla has the 'net, as oppose to word of mouth. The only reason why I know of any Tesla owners in the New England region is because they're Musk fans and bought into the Silicon Valley story. The other luxury sports car types stick to their Porches and Ferraris. And thus, Tesla owners have that label ... "I'm a Silicon Valley hip executive, not a boring New Englander"

None of them ever bother me about it because I only show up in a limo. In their eyes, I'm old money but cloaked by my recent success.

You guys are so much into status symbol while it’s more of a practicality for me. I am not into status symbol, but more about enjoying life while I can afford it and still have some youth. I don’t want to be an old guy in his 60’s and 70’s driving a sports car.

I’ve always wanted a Corvette. My wife shot it down due to it being a 2-door car and we have a young child. Instead of writing a $60k check for a Corvette, I wrote a $90k check for a Tesla with a Corvette like performance with 4 doors.

So far, I’ve been extremely happy with the car while I’m saving money on gas. I also get to give family and friends, who are into saving the planet and driving priuses, a hard time for driving an ICE car. ???

E-man says

Tesla with a Corvette like performance

Ummm, no. Except for maybe a short straight-line run.

PS. I own TSLA stock.

E-man says

Instead of writing a $60k check for a Corvette, I wrote a $90k check for a Tesla with a Corvette like performance with 4 doors.

So far, I’ve been extremely happy with the car while I’m saving money on gas.

Hmmmm..

$30k buys a hell of a lot of gas. You didn't "save" anything. You were taken by a "used car" salesman.

E-man says

I am not into status symbol,

Really, what's this?

E-man says

I also get to give family and friends, who are into saving the planet and driving priuses, a hard time for driving an ICE car.

Sure sounds like you're into "status symbols".

MrMagic says

E-man says

So far, I’ve been extremely happy with the car while I’m saving money on gas.

Hmmmm..

$30k buys a hell of a lot of gas. You didn't "save" anything. You were taken by a "used car" salesman.

I think the emphasis here is the extreme happiness.

E-man says

I don’t want to be an old guy in his 60’s and 70’s driving a sports car.

Looped in with the above.

====

From my Tesla thread and status symbols ...

http://patrick.net/post/1318339/2018-08-20-i-have-a-friend-who-drives-a-tesla-i-say-so-what

-----
Introduction: "As you know, I'm semi-retired from hedge fund work. I now consult back to my old firm, in return for free livery & lodging, wherever I go, advocating for my firm.

In the past few years, I have a friend with a wife and kids, and he bought himself a Tesla. And realize, this guy doesn't have enough money saved for his kids' college a/o medical/grad school educations. In other words, he's pulled from his potential eggs nest, to enjoy himself today.

Ok, the car makes no noise on the road and looks sporty ... but so what?

In contrast, I'm being driven around, in a back of a limo, reading/studying or watching some videos. I get to relax and let someone else take me around, picking up specialty foods from all different shops across New England, while my friend who's "trendy", gets to be like everyone else, stuck in traffic, getting from point A to point B.

Seriously, I don't get it."
----

And the conclusion: "I just checked my dividend earnings statement. This year, I came close to clearing $240K in dividend income alone. The amount of actual work needed for that income stream was nearly ~0% of my time, half of which is tax deferred, and I'd used business expenses to offset the other stuff, and I use my consulting earnings to pay the additional taxes.

Plus, I have no cap gain losses as I'd eliminated the high debt blue chips in late August prior to the sell off.

Ok, so what's the purpose of stating the above?

I can easily buy a Tesla or a Porsche or even a Lamborghini, if I really wanted to ... in cash.

And why don't I do that?

Because by re-investing my dividends into blue chips ... in a decade's time, I'll have an income stream of over $400K since blue chips raise dividends, even by a meager amount on a periodic basis, along with the compounding effect.

http://www.dividend-calculator.com/quarterly.php

Now, if I wanted to go for a joyride, I can plunk down the cash for a weekend spin in a luxury sport cars for a grand plus fees.

https://www.gothamdreamcars.com/exotic-car-rental

And really, that's all that I'd want because in reality, I enjoy being driven around by my driver, instead being some gearhead, in love with his cars. Vehicles are for transportation."
-----

Which divided paying stocks do you recommend?

Patrick says

What do people think about Tesla (TSLA)?

It's over $300, with a loss of $10/share, but revenue just keeps going up. Hard to figure out what a fair price is since it doesn't make money yet.

How would you come up with a fair price per share?

Very difficult for anyone to figure this out.
Tesla is both, a high tech company and a car company. If it can keep up the innovation like Apple did, the shares are way undervalued. If Tesla stops innovating fast enough, and other car companies catch up, the stock is way overpriced. Impossible to predict.
I do know, after the buying experience and driving a Tesla, I am in WOW. It's the Star Trek of cars. Tesla will no doubt be a successful company, but the value of its stock price is a whole different animal.

Rin says

A person like Musk could have easily parked money into our firm, earned 20% per year

Even Madoff gave less.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Patrick says

One reason I'm interested in Tesla is because I'm a firm believer that solar will replace oil soon, being limited only by battery technology. And Tesla makes more money from batteries than from cars.

Any other companies positioned to efficiently store solar power?

Nothing beats the energy density and utility of the liquid hydrocarbon fuels.

Who cares about the energy density. If I can drive an electric car for less than 3 cents a mile, why would I even consider anything else?

Strategist says

Rin says

A person like Musk could have easily parked money into our firm, earned 20% per year

Even Madoff gave less.

That's all because of me.

When I first started this firm, my pitch to the senior partners was that instead of hiring a bloated staff of useless dolts, we hire the very best prop trader out there at $1M/yr base with a P/L cut, and automate most of the functions so that we could make payroll every single year regardless of fund performance. Well, it paid off, our man earned 20+%, every single year, without skipping a beat!

In contrast, Bernie & Co sucks!

FYI, that guy retired recently with some $200M.

Strategist says

Very difficult for anyone to figure this out.
Tesla is both, a high tech company and a car company.

I agree, not being able to figure it out myself. There are so many unknowns.

Strategist says

Who cares about the energy density. If I can drive an electric car for less than 3 cents a mile, why would I even consider anything else?

Maybe because you're paying $30K EXTRA for the car. That buys a lot of gas. At $3.00 a gallon, your break-even is 200,000 miles. Anything less, you paid MORE!!

You driving that electric car 200,000 without ever replacing the battery pack? Another $10K for a battery pack at 100,000 miles? Times 2....

Bueller?

Strategist says

B.A.C.A.H. says

Patrick says

One reason I'm interested in Tesla is because I'm a firm believer that solar will replace oil soon, being limited only by battery technology. And Tesla makes more money from batteries than from cars.

Any other companies positioned to efficiently store solar power?

Nothing beats the energy density and utility of the liquid hydrocarbon fuels.

Who cares about the energy density. If I can drive an electric car for less than 3 cents a mile, why would I even consider anything else?

If you look at my YoY delta in electricity usage of 3,600 kWh, the delta in my electricity bill should have been $464 at an average rate of $0.129/kWh. However, it’s only $188. This means I have been paying a premium rate of $23/mo or $276/year with the standard PG&E program. I actually saved money by switching to the EV program. I learned something new after owning an EV.

I got $500 clean vehicle fuel rebate from PG&E in addition to $2,500 from the great state of CA and $7,500 from the IRS. Also got $1k referral discount last year too so $11.5k off the ticker price. ???

E-man says

If you look at my YoY delta in electricity usage of 3,600 kWh, the delta in my electricity bill should have been $464 at an average rate of $0.129/kWh. However, it’s only $188. This means I have been paying a premium rate of $23/mo or $276/year with the standard PG&E program. I actually saved money by switching to the EV program. I learned something new after owning an EV.

That is what I have been telling some people for a long time. Switching to a Time of Use plan available to electric car owners will actually save you money on the electricity you use for normal everyday needs. And then you get a credit of $500 per year from the electric company.

MrMagic says

Strategist says

Who cares about the energy density. If I can drive an electric car for less than 3 cents a mile, why would I even consider anything else?

Maybe because you're paying $30K EXTRA for the car.

You can get a brand new Nissan Leaf for:
MSRP $31,000.
Dealer discount $5,000
Federal tax credit $7,500
Ca rebate check $2,500
Free fuel for 2 years from Nissan.
Annual Utility credit. Last one was $500.
-------
Now do the math. There has been no exaggeration on these figures.
If you have low income, you get a further $2,000 from California.
Free level 2 chargers/installation for low income too.
Some cities/counties have further rebates.

Folks, an electric car IS the lowest priced car in the country. Tesla is a high end luxury car. Don't compare the cost of a Tesla with a basic Civic. It's an apple to orange comparison.

For those who are interested in the Porsche brand, here’s the pricing for their Taycan. Which car do you think will do 0-60 in 3.5 seconds?

Don't get caught up in the hype - nothing is more hyped/shorted then Tesla. Sure it could still rocket to the moon before burning out ... but it could just burn out. Read up on the short cases - loss of executives, debt level, European luxury brands coming out with their own electrics and possibly an unhinged leader (who else could get away with calling a national hero a Pedo!?)

Rin says

This year, I came close to clearing $240K in dividend income alone

I think with that kind of income, a lot of people would be fucking hoes.

Strategist says

MrMagic says

Strategist says

Who cares about the energy density. If I can drive an electric car for less than 3 cents a mile, why would I even consider anything else?

Maybe because you're paying $30K EXTRA for the car.

You can get a brand new Nissan Leaf for:
MSRP $31,000.
Dealer discount $5,000
Federal tax credit $7,500
Ca rebate check $2,500
Free fuel for 2 years from Nissan.
Annual Utility credit. Last one was $500.
-------
Now do the math. There has been no exaggeration on these figures.
If you have low income, you get a further $2,000 from California.
Free level 2 chargers/installation for low income too.
Some cities/counties have further rebates.

Folks, an electric car IS the lowest priced car in the country. Tesla is a high end luxury car. Don't compare the...

Am I reading that correctly? A low income person can get a Nissan leaf for $14,000 after rebates + $500/yr. This translates as no gas costs ever? Fly in ointment...poor people live in apartments. How do they charge their car at an apartment complex?

I picked up a Chevy Bolt yesterday. I got the Premier trim with a 3 year lease with nothing down for $484/month. The leasing company gets the $7,500 federal rebate and works it into the monthly lease. I still qualify for the $2,500 California state rebate and get the carpool lane sticker. I just changed my SDG&E plan for the EV plan that charges me only $.09/kWh between 12:00 and 6:00AM. By my math, I am saving just over $100/month if I leased a comparable sedan with a V6 or turbo engine factoring in my monthly fuel charges.

So far it is totally beating my expectations. I knew it was quick and fast on the few test drives I did this past month. But once I got it on some familiar roads in my neighborhood with all of the hills.....it's been a total blast. I love rocketing up the hills and then using the regenerative braking (including the steering wheel regen brake paddle) coming down the hills and watching my mile range increase. I've only touched the brake pedal a few times. The one pedal driving is super addicting.

How do they charge their car at an apartment complex?

If you are in a northern state like Minnesota, the apartment complex parking lots already have a standard electric socket at each parking spot meant for block heaters.

HeadSet says

How do they charge their car at an apartment complex?

If you are in a northern state like Minnesota, the apartment complex parking lots already have a standard electric socket at each parking spot meant for block heaters.

110v or 220v? The former are practically useless for EV charging (speaking from experience).

DASKAA says

HeadSet says

How do they charge their car at an apartment complex?

If you are in a northern state like Minnesota, the apartment complex parking lots already have a standard electric socket at each parking spot meant for block heaters.

110v or 220v? The former are practically useless for EV charging (speaking from experience).

Yeah - even my 220v socket in my garage is only rated at 30 amps, so I can't get the full "Level 2" charging that charges the entire Bolt battery in 9 hours since it requires 32 amps. The best I can do is 12 hours which is perfectly fine for my daily commute.

Honestly, can't imagine trying to live with an EV car if I didn't have the ability to charge at home. Too much of a hassle trying to find chargers IMO.

socal2 says

Honestly, can't imagine trying to live with an EV car if I didn't have the ability to charge at home. Too much of a hassle trying to find chargers IMO.

Oh, come on... Do I have to engineer all the solutions around here?

That isn't going to be able to get you out of the driveway.

socal2 says

I picked up a Chevy Bolt yesterday.

Awesome! However I am curious as to why not a Volt.

Booger says

That isn't going to be able to get you out of the driveway.

No kidding.

I've been plugged into my 110v socket with the standard cable that comes for the car for the last 1 hour and only added about 5 miles of range. It would take 45 hours to charge the whole car at that rate. The charger that comes with the Bolt (and Volt) is also rated for 220V for the European market, so all you have to do is plug in a 220v adapter plug and that doubles the charge rate so I could get about 100 miles charged overnight which is all I need to keep the car topped off every 2 days with my daily 50 mile commute.

I will ultimately buy a Level 2 charger, but think I will be able to get buy for a while with the stock charger and the 220v conversion cable.

Booger says

That isn't going to be able to get you out of the driveway.

OK.... Fine... just add a few more....



There, all solved!!

Booger says

Awesome! However I am curious as to why not a Volt.

The Bolt has more horsepower and seemed peppier driving around compared to the Volt (200hp and 266lbs of torque). The Bolt can do 0-60 in 6.5 seconds and the Volt is 7.5. Also the Bolt feels more grounded and sticks to the road with the heavy battery in the floor. It's like driving an electric go cart - really fun with the one pedal driving.

MrMagic says

Booger says

That isn't going to be able to get you out of the driveway.

OK.... Fine... just add a few more....



There, all solved!!

Your just getting out of the driveway here. Possibly down the street, but just a little, if it's flat or downhill.

socal2 says

Booger says

Awesome! However I am curious as to why not a Volt.

The Bolt has more horsepower and seemed peppier driving around compared to the Volt (200hp and 266lbs of torque). The Bolt can do 0-60 in 6.5 seconds and the Volt is 7.5. Also the Bolt feels more grounded and sticks to the road with the heavy battery in the floor. It's like driving an electric go cart - really fun with the one pedal driving.

Good answer, but I was expecting something more along the lines of it's a second car type of thing.

Booger says

Good answer, but I was expecting something more along the lines of it's a second car type of thing.

It is a second car. It's my main car for the work commute and my wife drives a Honda Odyssey which we use for longer trips.

socal2 says

Booger says

Awesome! However I am curious as to why not a Volt.

The Bolt has more horsepower and seemed peppier driving around compared to the Volt (200hp and 266lbs of torque). The Bolt can do 0-60 in 6.5 seconds and the Volt is 7.5. Also the Bolt feels more grounded and sticks to the road with the heavy battery in the floor. It's like driving an electric go cart - really fun with the one pedal driving.

Yup, it’s addictive. Imagine you can do 0-60 in 4 sec, or even 2.5 sec. How addictive would it be? Going up the hills, zoom. Even if you come to a complete stop in a middle of the hill, step on the pedal and the car zooms again. Instant torque baby.

I get 30 mph charging at home with the level 2 50-amp rated. Costed me $25.83 for parts and a cup of Peets coffee to have it installed by my little brother who is a GC. PG&E rates vary between summer and winter months, but averaging $0.129/kWh. It’s addictive once you own one. My daughter wants to take the Tesla everywhere. Wife has an MDX, and it’s perfect for long trips. The MDX hauls ass up the hills too.

Congrats and have fun.

@patrick,

Tesla is the 2nd biggest holding for Larry Ellison, the CEO of Oracle. This is what Larry had to say about Elon Musk "You know, he's landing rockets on robot drone rafts in the ocean, and you're saying he doesn't know what he's doing. Well, who else is landing rockets? You ever land a rocket on a robot drone? Who are you?"

If I have to take financial advice from someone, I’d rather take it from a billionaire rather than some faceless person/people on the internet.

Cheers!

E-man says

Don't get caught up in the hype - nothing is more hyped/shorted then Tesla. Sure it could still rocket to the moon before burning out ... but it could just burn out. Read up on the short cases - loss of executives, debt level, European luxury brands coming out with their own electrics and possibly an unhinged leader (who else could get away with calling a national hero a Pedo!?)

Executives leaving, competition, and a CEO that calls someone a Pedo, is irrelevant to a new and spectacular technology that Tesla delivers. The emerging competition only points to the success Tesla has with electric cars. It's not the brand that matters, but the technology it delivers. Making the electric car technology available to all car companies for free is what prevents the technology from being acquired and shelved by the oil companies that literally have $trillions to lose.
Fuck the oil companies. What have they ever done for the health of humans and the planet?

WineHorror1 says

Am I reading that correctly? A low income person can get a Nissan leaf for $14,000 after rebates + $500/yr. This translates as no gas costs ever? Fly in ointment...poor people live in apartments. How do they charge their car at an apartment complex?

They don't have to charge at their apartment. As simple as that.

socal2 says

I've been plugged into my 110v socket with the standard cable that comes for the car for the last 1 hour and only added about 5 miles of range. It would take 45 hours to charge the whole car at that rate. The charger that comes with the Bolt (and Volt) is also rated for 220V for the European market, so all you have to do is plug in a 220v adapter plug and that doubles the charge rate so I could get about 100 miles charged overnight which is all I need to keep the car topped off every 2 days with my daily 50 mile commute.

I will ultimately buy a Level 2 charger, but think I will be able to get buy for a while with the stock charger and the 220v conversion cable.

Something is off here. A level 2 charger will charge between 20 and 20 miles per hour for an all electric car.

MrMagic says

There, all solved!!

Ha ha ha. Funny.
Thanks for the solution, but we have something better..... A plug.

E-man says

If I have to take financial advice from someone, I’d rather take it from a billionaire rather than some faceless person/people on the internet.

The bartender is the best source for investment advise, ask any drunk.

Strategist says

E-man says

Don't get caught up in the hype - nothing is more hyped/shorted then Tesla. Sure it could still rocket to the moon before burning out ... but it could just burn out. Read up on the short cases - loss of executives, debt level, European luxury brands coming out with their own electrics and possibly an unhinged leader (who else could get away with calling a national hero a Pedo!?)

Executives leaving, competition, and a CEO that calls someone a Pedo, is irrelevant to a new and spectacular technology that Tesla delivers. The emerging competition only points to the success Tesla has with electric cars. It's not the brand that matters, but the technology it delivers. Making the electric car technology available to all car companies for free is what prevents the technology from being acquired and shelved by the oil companies that literally have $trillions to lose.
Fuck the oil companies....

Dude, I didn’t say any of that stuff. You quoted the wrong guy. ;-)

Btw, I get 30 mph for a level 2 charger at home. Off-peak is 11pm - 7am so that’s equivalent to 240 miles per night. Once you charge higher than 92%ish, the regen doesn’t work well on the Tesla. I love the regen so I only charge to 80-90%.