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Bloomberg Interview: 2016 Housing Predictions
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2015 Dec 30, 3:02pm 43,668 views 170 comments
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_
2016 Jan 7, 12:44pm
Strategist says
30.46 TOL
I am telling you, if you believe in your 200% return on the builders, Here is your buying opp for TOL ;-)
Strategist
2016 Jan 7, 3:52pm
Strategist says
30.46 TOL
I am telling you, if you believe in your 200% return on the builders, Here is your buying opp for TOL ;-)
Stocks react to all kinds of nonsense. Means nothing.
Hey, where's the number for the BK lawyer? By tomorrow I should be bankrupt. This time it's the Chinese and the NorthKoreans that are screwing up my life. :(
_
2016 Jan 7, 4:16pm
Stocks react to all kinds of nonsense. Means nothing.
Hey, where's the number for the BK lawyer? By tomorrow I should be bankrupt. This time it's the Chinese and the NorthKoreans that are screwing up my life. :(
What are you talking about.. I wasn't Bullish on TOL at 40 and now I am saying it's a better buy at 30! :-)
Unlike most wall street firms that had a token buy rating
Opportunity here to Buy TOL in a bear market pricing!
If you don't feel confident then put a stop loss now at 28.65 .... market gives everyone a shot to buy something they want at a discount
Strategist
2016 Jan 7, 4:23pm
If you don't feel confident then put a stop loss now at 28.65 .... market gives everyone a shot to buy something they want at a discount
Buy More Buy More Buy More.
_
2016 Jan 7, 4:24pm
Buy More Buy More Buy More.
The you agree buying TOL in a break market pricing makes sense if you're in the 200% over time camp?
:-)
I was looking into buying ibt or tol but how does interest rate effect housing buying/building. U think it will stay low for next 2 yrs till rate hike continues?
I know when rate goes down ppl buy more.
_
2016 Jan 7, 4:57pm
I was looking into buying ibt or tol but how does interest rate effect housing buying/building. U think it will stay low for next 2 yrs till rate hike continues?
I know when rate goes down ppl buy more.
When I went on CNBC to try to explain that the growth in XHB and TOL was only due to a low par and it's pricing too much growth, this is the pull back that should happen, not the Buy ratings at 40
Charts 30-34 area good area to get into TOL, because below 28 the pricing is for more profit margin hit that we saw in Both TOL and LEN recent reports.
So, now that's it's at 30, cheers up if you're a believer in the builders and TOL this is when you get in now
_
2016 Jan 7, 8:24pm
So, now where do we go to find some yield for our available cash?
The only hunt for yield I am and have looked for in this cycle was from my rental property.
High Debt yield was always a River Boat Gambler game if it is sought after with time.
Strategist
2016 Jan 7, 9:23pm
Market is getting fun again ;-)
So, now where do we go to find some yield for our available cash?
Vegas.
_
2016 Jan 8, 8:23am
2015 jobs averaged 221K/mo; as UR recovers maintaining strong job mkt will not require as rapid a pace of job growth
My 2015 Prediction
"Look for job creation numbers to be between 210K – 225K with some improvement in the wage growth"
LOL did you google for that image using "george washington eagle ride rocket launcher flag"?
_
2016 Jan 10, 6:45pm
Chevron
Which one of you mutts disliked this and why?
Historically, these deep heavy crashes in oil has given great buying opp for a lot oil companies
NDrLoR
2016 Jan 10, 6:55pm
Moved into my condo 35 years ago today, 6463 Bordeaux, Dallas, 75209 in Bordeaux Village surrounded by Lemmon, Inwood and Mockingbird. Paid $50K, financed with 12-3/4% rate for 20 years--lucky to get a fixed rate! Lived there 24 years, sold it in mid-2005. Mine is not visible because of the trees, but it's at the back of the huge lawn. The ones across the street are right at the curb, have large back lawns. 214 units across 14 acres, still beautifully maintained today:
indigenous
2016 Jan 10, 7:13pm
My thinking was that oil companies have already taken their hit. And Chevron is a blue chip.
The dislikes I get are usually from the Wogster just out of habit.
_
2016 Jan 13, 12:01pm
See how strong TOL is holding up here at this high 29 level... Trust me :-)
indigenous
2016 Jan 13, 4:42pm
They always keep it up as long as possible. The answer they will give is that oil was much more expensive when they started processing/purchased the oil.
there's always something about a refinery going down for maintenance, or a dock holding up ships, etc.
i just don't think ca state tax will permit a very low price for an extended amount of time. they are already passing laws to curb fossil fuel usage by 50% over the next whatever years. this will only raise the price at the pump. like the cigarette effect - this is bad for you, stop using it, we are taxing the shit out of it to help you ween off.
CBOEtrader
2016 Jan 13, 11:07pm
The top chart is TOL 5-minute bars, bottom is one-day bars. Its in a unique spot down here. Expect lots of volatility from this product in the near future.
I'd wait to buy until I see TOL cross 31, then add on if it crosses the longer term lower inflection point of 32.8.
_
2016 Jan 14, 6:52am
1) Mortgage Rates and Bond Market
I predict mortgage rates will be in the range of 3.625% to 4.625% during the year. I anticipate the 10-year note will stick in the same channel as the past year with a yield range of 1.60% to 3.04%. Yes, that is 1 handle on the 10-year even with the Fed starting their rate hikes. I predict long term rates will remain low due to demographic deflation (more on this later), unless ECI wage inflation and CPI core inflation rise. In any event, I don’t expect the 10-year breaking above 3.04%. Long-term rates won’t rise in a meaningful way unless inflation picks up.
Almost there! 2.04% 10's print yesterday
_
2016 Jan 14, 6:55am
I'd wait to buy until I see TOL cross 31, then add on if it crosses the longer term lower inflection point of 32.8.
One of the reasons I pick on TOL a lot is that it was the token Buy call because the builders were going to do awesome last year, I rarely talk about stocks in general let a lone a single company.
However, all the over hype last year in housing was actually one of my 2015 Predictions, that housing bulls would always over hype the housing the story and I just had to come on CNBC and try to explain it's all a low bar dog of the dow game plan at best!
_
2016 Jan 16, 7:08am
Well, the Dollar over hang is seen in the market place for sure now
But for housing, oil states impacted oil
_
2016 Jan 17, 10:42am
I will let you guys know how this is going
Since I am running it I will have tons of full data on this home
Normally I never get involved in this aspect of housing but it's my parents home and my father doesn't want to use a agent
$1,895,000
Price
5
Beds
5.5
Baths5,290 Sq. Ft.
$358 / Sq. Ft.
Redfin Estimate:
Go into any Olive Garden,
P.F. Chang's Chinese Bistro,
T.G.I. Friday's, Fuddruckers.
What do they have in the bathroom?
Urinal cakes with my face on it.
I've had people come up to me
on the streets and say,
"I know you from somewhere."
"Yeah, you do.
You pissed on my face, friend."
I will let you guys know how this is going
how is this going? how's your bus bench situation? why don't you let me come in on this and we'll split the commish.
_
2016 Feb 9, 7:15pm
why don't you let me come in on this and we'll split the commish.
You think I am getting paid a penny on this ;-)
hahaha i know i just love quoting the "i love you, man" movie. tevin the realtor was a pretty awesome character.
_
2016 Feb 10, 2:47pm
That 1.60 level I always talk about in my yearly prediction almost there on 10's
Will we see break or will it hold
Strategist
2016 Feb 10, 2:51pm
That 1.60 level I always talk about in my yearly prediction almost there on 10's
Will we see break or will it hold
Looks like it's gonna break it in the next few weeks. The descent has been very sharp.
_
2016 Feb 10, 2:53pm
Looks like it's gonna break it in the next few weeks. The descent has been very sharp.
This is true and the world has negative rates in play
Pro for holding is that Core Inflation is rising as well as wage growth so does that off set global yield collapse...
Time will tell, this has been key level coming up, triple bottoms and tops are very rare anyway
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http://loganmohtashami.com/2015/12/30/bloomberg-interview-2016-housing-predictions/
Another note, since I went on CNBC (June) and warned that TOLL Brothers was over rated and Builders index is pricing in too much growth and not growth from a low bar...
Both have fallen double digits from the top, XHB, barely positive for the year, all that hype early on with housing, fell flat toward the end of the year
#Housing
#Economics