patrick.net

I was looking into buying ibt or tol but how does interest rate effect housing buying/building. U think it will stay low for next 2 yrs till rate hike continues?
I know when rate goes down ppl buy more.

KgK one says

I was looking into buying ibt or tol but how does interest rate effect housing buying/building. U think it will stay low for next 2 yrs till rate hike continues?

I know when rate goes down ppl buy more.

When I went on CNBC to try to explain that the growth in XHB and TOL was only due to a low par and it's pricing too much growth, this is the pull back that should happen, not the Buy ratings at 40

Charts 30-34 area good area to get into TOL, because below 28 the pricing is for more profit margin hit that we saw in Both TOL and LEN recent reports.

So, now that's it's at 30, cheers up if you're a believer in the builders and TOL this is when you get in now

Thanks Logan!

Market is getting fun again ;-)

Ironman says

So, now where do we go to find some yield for our available cash?

The only hunt for yield I am and have looked for in this cycle was from my rental property.

High Debt yield was always a River Boat Gambler game if it is sought after with time.

Ironman says

Got any other good ideas?

At this point of the cycle, not really.

Ironman says

Logan Mohtashami says

Market is getting fun again ;-)

So, now where do we go to find some yield for our available cash?

Vegas.

What about 5% dividend blue chips?

Chevron

2015 jobs averaged 221K/mo; as UR recovers maintaining strong job mkt will not require as rapid a pace of job growth
My 2015 Prediction
"Look for job creation numbers to be between 210K – 225K with some improvement in the wage growth"

LOL did you google for that image using "george washington eagle ride rocket launcher flag"?

landtof says

did you google

Yes

indigenous says

Chevron

Which one of you mutts disliked this and why?

indigenous says

Chevron

Which one of you mutts disliked this and why?

Historically, these deep heavy crashes in oil has given great buying opp for a lot oil companies

Moved into my condo 35 years ago today, 6463 Bordeaux, Dallas, 75209 in Bordeaux Village surrounded by Lemmon, Inwood and Mockingbird. Paid $50K, financed with 12-3/4% rate for 20 years--lucky to get a fixed rate! Lived there 24 years, sold it in mid-2005. Mine is not visible because of the trees, but it's at the back of the huge lawn. The ones across the street are right at the curb, have large back lawns. 214 units across 14 acres, still beautifully maintained today:

https://www.google.com/maps/place/6463+bordeaux+75209/@32.8354238,-96.8262218,3a,75y,253.7h,90t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1syX3UY3GXaj1Fe3aa_eRldg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0xb2f3672bb1344ed0!6m1!1e1

My thinking was that oil companies have already taken their hit. And Chevron is a blue chip.

The dislikes I get are usually from the Wogster just out of habit.

Strategist says

Strategist  

See how strong TOL is holding up here at this high 29 level... Trust me :-)

How is this possible with $30 dollar oil

They always keep it up as long as possible. The answer they will give is that oil was much more expensive when they started processing/purchased the oil.

Logan Mohtashami says

How is this possible with $30 dollar oil

state tax.

landtof says

state tax.

I was playing a little bit less when oil was $15 higher though

there's always something about a refinery going down for maintenance, or a dock holding up ships, etc.

i just don't think ca state tax will permit a very low price for an extended amount of time. they are already passing laws to curb fossil fuel usage by 50% over the next whatever years. this will only raise the price at the pump. like the cigarette effect - this is bad for you, stop using it, we are taxing the shit out of it to help you ween off.

The top chart is TOL 5-minute bars, bottom is one-day bars. Its in a unique spot down here. Expect lots of volatility from this product in the near future.

I'd wait to buy until I see TOL cross 31, then add on if it crosses the longer term lower inflection point of 32.8.

1) Mortgage Rates and Bond Market

I predict mortgage rates will be in the range of 3.625% to 4.625% during the year. I anticipate the 10-year note will stick in the same channel as the past year with a yield range of 1.60% to 3.04%. Yes, that is 1 handle on the 10-year even with the Fed starting their rate hikes. I predict long term rates will remain low due to demographic deflation (more on this later), unless ECI wage inflation and CPI core inflation rise. In any event, I don’t expect the 10-year breaking above 3.04%. Long-term rates won’t rise in a meaningful way unless inflation picks up.

Almost there! 2.04% 10's print yesterday

CBOEtrader says

I'd wait to buy until I see TOL cross 31, then add on if it crosses the longer term lower inflection point of 32.8.

One of the reasons I pick on TOL a lot is that it was the token Buy call because the builders were going to do awesome last year, I rarely talk about stocks in general let a lone a single company.

However, all the over hype last year in housing was actually one of my 2015 Predictions, that housing bulls would always over hype the housing the story and I just had to come on CNBC and try to explain it's all a low bar dog of the dow game plan at best!

Well, the Dollar over hang is seen in the market place for sure now

But for housing, oil states impacted oil

I will let you guys know how this is going

Since I am running it I will have tons of full data on this home

Normally I never get involved in this aspect of housing but it's my parents home and my father doesn't want to use a agent

$1,895,000
Price
5
Beds
5.5
Baths5,290 Sq. Ft.
$358 / Sq. Ft.
Redfin Estimate:

Go into any Olive Garden,
P.F. Chang's Chinese Bistro,
T.G.I. Friday's, Fuddruckers.

What do they have in the bathroom?
Urinal cakes with my face on it.

I've had people come up to me
on the streets and say,
"I know you from somewhere."

"Yeah, you do.
You pissed on my face, friend."

Jason says

Jason Will

ASSHOLE!

Logan Mohtashami says

I will let you guys know how this is going

how is this going? how's your bus bench situation? why don't you let me come in on this and we'll split the commish.

landtof says

why don't you let me come in on this and we'll split the commish.

You think I am getting paid a penny on this ;-)

hahaha i know i just love quoting the "i love you, man" movie. tevin the realtor was a pretty awesome character.

That 1.60 level I always talk about in my yearly prediction almost there on 10's

Will we see break or will it hold

Logan Mohtashami says

That 1.60 level I always talk about in my yearly prediction almost there on 10's

Will we see break or will it hold

Looks like it's gonna break it in the next few weeks. The descent has been very sharp.

Strategist says

Looks like it's gonna break it in the next few weeks. The descent has been very sharp.

This is true and the world has negative rates in play

Pro for holding is that Core Inflation is rising as well as wage growth so does that off set global yield collapse...

Time will tell, this has been key level coming up, triple bottoms and tops are very rare anyway

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

Looks like it's gonna break it in the next few weeks. The descent has been very sharp.

This is true and the world has negative rates in play

Pro for holding is that Core Inflation is rising as well as wage growth so does that off set global yield collapse...

That sums up what Yellen testified today.....The future of the Federal funds rate rests on the economic data that comes along.

Strategist says

.The future of the Federal funds rate rests on the economic data that comes along.

The economic cycle can't really push the growth they want, they have been wrong on their estimates for years.

Since the dollar has done so much of their work, they should, just focus on inflation at this point, all their models for growth and inflation are broken, hence why the DOTS have been a disaster this cycle

Strategist says

The descent has been very sharp.

Last week on my weekly bond market prediction I said we close under 1.87% we can test 1.60% - 1.65%, but it happened faster than I though with a 1.67% print today

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

Looks like it's gonna break it in the next few weeks. The descent has been very sharp.

This is true and the world has negative rates in play

Wow. As of this second, the 10 year T Bond is at 1.56%

Logan Mohtashami says

Wow. As of this second, the 10 year T Bond is at 1.56%

This area is super key now, now the negative rate factor is in play where it wasn't before

Fun times! :-)