patrick.net

FortWayne says

That's probably the best explanation I've seen to this so far

It is beyond stupid actually.

FortWayne says

The problem is that the Fed did not allow the layoffs to occur

source: tradingeconomics.com

Sure looks like we had layoffs to me.

FortWayne says

so the money that would have gone to new types of industries has instead gone to speculation in the stock market and speculation in RE and government jobs and long-term disability.

Sure seems like there is a lot of money ready to be invested. The problem is that there is no reason to invest in new capacity or products because 90% of the population have no money.

Logan Mohtashami says

Job openings are there for construction, wage pressures are there for constructions workers but you just don't have the supply of them

WTF when did non farm employment become construction only? So what if there are job openings in construction. There are only 6 million construction jobs in the whole country or less than 2% of the population. Expanding that by 20%, which is a pipe dream, only adds 1 million jobs out of 140 million. That's not driving the house buying market anywhere.

bob2356 says

There are only 6 million construction jobs in the whole country or less than 2% of the population.

The JOLTS report is nationally for all Americans

Construction quality labor has been the number one compliant last year even thought construction jobs itself has had it's been 12 month run in the cycle, the demand is rising for construction and they simply need more quality labor

Today in the Small Business Report Labor concerns has outstripped sales demand, which is what you would see in the economic cycle as this stage

Such a low bar for construction that growth is in the works which needs more labor, it's just not a huge booming cycle for construction due to the soft single family built outs

indigenous says

bob2356 says

Millennials have moved and are moving to the cities in huge numbers already, they aren't going to be moving back out all that fast.

Primae facia that is not true otherwise suburbs would never had been built as cities are a far more efficient way to live.

What are you babbling about? Millennials are fleeing suburbs they grew up in to live in cities. Suburbs that are already built. Suburbs that initially were built because the interstate highway system allowed people to flee the dirty, dangerous, crowded cities that existed in the 1960's then became a lifestyle of their own. Most big cities today are disneyland compared to the 1960's.

indigenous says

bob2356 says

No debt isn't mostly owed by graduate students.

I don't think so:

How much in loans for students without a graduate degree vs graduate students? Hint each year about 4 million people take student loans that never finish college, about 4 million people do get a degree every year. 3.5 million undergrad, 500k master, 18k medical school, 30k law school. Not that there is any possibility it would happen, but you do the math and get back to me what percentage of the student loans owed belongs to graduate students. Bigger hint, 8 million people with modest loans trumps 50k with jumbo loans. It's not the dreaded rate of change thing that you so can't get, but it's a ratio's thing which is probably just as scary.

indigenous says

bob2356 says

Offshoring jobs? Stagnant or falling wages? Bankrupt pension plans? Not factors?

Not with millenials. Remember Say's law dictates that these millennials are going to be creating new jobs and new fields. IF the government lets them.

Really, that's interesting. You actually think 75 million people are going to be creating new jobs and new fields? That's really impressive. Insane, but impressive. I think the vast majority will have to get by with the current fields and jobs. Jobs that most of which are are either a commodity on the world market or subject to replacement by automation (or both) that will continue to face downward wage pressures.

How does a libertarian quote say in the first place? Say wanted public works projects for the unemployed. Too bad say wasn't around to explain how his law totally failed in the great depression. One thing you have to give libertarians credit for is if things don't work it's always because the market isn't free enough even though they can't define what free enough is.

Millenials haven't formed families yet.

If you have a better graph why don't you produce it, rather than depending on your blather?

" I think the vast majority will have to get by with the current fields and jobs. "

Like the farmers did?

Logan Mohtashami says

I believe the Fed will raise rates soon but to get a better feel on that you need to the 2 year note to have a 80 handle for the first rate hike.

The 34 year trend of lower rates still intact

Sir,

With housing costs going up in select markets (IE Goleta) and rents going up, food going up, not sure if this corresponds to the reduction in inflation in this chart.

Are you sure the same pundits that told us that the CRA and private label subprime were fine are now not gaming us with false statistics?

It is beyond stupid actually."

You set the standard on stupid.

Entitlemented says

the reduction in inflation in this chart.

Rent Inflation in Orange and everything else is blue from the CPI index

PITI Housing Inflation is not something CPI accounts for

Entitlemented says

Are you sure the same pundits that told us that the CRA and private label subprime were fine are now not gaming us with false statistics?

Yep--I'm pretty sure it's just that idiots who believe in shadowstats and that the CRA was the cause of the housing bubble are still clueless.

indigenous says

Millenials haven't formed families yet.

If you have a better graph why don't you produce it, rather than depending on your blather?

" I think the vast majority will have to get by with the current fields and jobs. "

Like the farmers did?

So you believe we are at the start of the industrial revolution where the majority of the population either farmed a dozen acres by hand for a sustenance living or working as a peasant/share cropper? Sure right.

What graph did you produce showing 75 million millennials will be starting new fields? I missed it.

bob2356 says

Really, that's interesting. You actually think 75 million people are going to be creating new jobs and new fields?

bob2356 says

So you believe we are at the start of the industrial revolution where the majority of the population either farmed a dozen acres by hand for a sustenance living or working as a peasant/share cropper? Sure right.

No I'm saying that, I am saying that new technology creates new jobs and that farming jobs got replaced by factory jobs.

bob2356 says

What graph did you produce showing 75 million millennials will be starting new fields? I missed it.

It is the way the economy works. No graph required.

Where is your graph showing that student loans are owed mostly by other than graduate students.

indigenous says

Where is your graph showing that student loans are owed mostly by other than graduate students.

You said graduate students have most of the loans, you prove it. The way things work is I questioned your assertion so now you back it up with something. All you've posted so far is 1% of people a year have more than 100k in loans. That means absolutely nothing, even for the mathematically challenged.

indigenous says

bob2356 says

What graph did you produce showing 75 million millennials will be starting new fields? I missed it.

It is the way the economy works. No graph required.

There were 70 million baby boomers, what percentage started new fields? I'll be waiting for that one a long, long time.

bob2356 says

So you believe we are at the start of the industrial revolution where the majority of the population either farmed a dozen acres by hand for a sustenance living or working as a peasant/share cropper? Sure right.

What graph did you produce showing 75 million millennials will be starting new fields? I missed it.

All you have to do is look at the past and you will see occupations and jobs follow technology.
Unless you believe "Anything that can be invented, has been invented."

bob2356 says

There were 70 million baby boomers, what percentage started new fields? I'll be waiting for that one a long, long time.

Small Computers, Cell Phones, the internet, computerized equipment, lasers, 3d printers, Cad, the industry and the jobs. A large percentage.

indigenous says

bob2356 says

There were 70 million baby boomers, what percentage started new fields? I'll be waiting for that one a long, long time.

Small Computers, Cell Phones, the internet, computerized equipment, lasers, 3d printers, Cad, the industry and the jobs. A large percentage.

What is that large percentage? Anything to offer other than pulling it out of your anal orifice? What about old fields like manufacturing, construction, transportation, shipping, finance, retail, food service, farming, mineral/oil extraction, military, politics, law, medicine, warehousing, teaching, management, engineering (non it), child care, bookkeeping/accounting, entertainment, etc., etc., etc.. All of those together are somehow the small percentage of jobs baby boomers are doing? Got any data at all or is it like student loans, it's true because I believe it should be true.

Strategist says

What graph did you produce showing 75 million millennials will be starting new fields? I missed it.

All you have to do is look at the past and you will see occupations and jobs follow technology.

Try to keep up. He said NEW FIELDS. Doing the same job using new technology isn't new fields. Like a secretary writing an email rather than a letter or a salesman calling on a cell phone instead of a land line. Same job, different medium.

bob2356 says

What is that large percentage? Anything to offer other than pulling it out of your anal orifice? What about old fields like manufacturing, construction, transportation, shipping, finance, retail, food service, farming, mineral/oil extraction, military, politics, law, medicine, warehousing, teaching, management, engineering (non it), child care, bookkeeping/accounting, entertainment, etc., etc., etc.. All of those together are somehow the small percentage of jobs baby boomers are doing? Got any data at all or is it like student loans, it's true because I believe it should be true.

It stands to reason that steel workers replacing iron workers, secretaries being replaced with electronic equipment, oil fracking, transportation using Uber or Lyft, finance dealing direct with the lending institution anywhere in the world, accounting with modern software, teaching via home school or the internet, entertainment on demand through the internet ALL COUNTS AS NEW FIELDS.

Why don't you back up one fucking thing you say instead of your usual carping, you supercilious asshole.

indigenous says

It stands to reason that steel workers replacing iron workers, secretaries being replaced with electronic equipment, oil fracking, transportation using Uber or Lyft, finance dealing direct with the lending institution anywhere in the world, accounting with modern software, teaching via home school or the internet, entertainment on demand through the internet ALL COUNTS AS NEW FIELDS.

All counts as new fields? That stands as your opinion, absolutely nothing else. My opinion is that if someone is doing the same work using different technology it's NOT a new field. WTF is the difference between oil drilling for the last 150 years and fracking other than someone pumps in fracking fluid at the end? The same guys stand there and feed the same exact pipe into the ground, nothing different. WTF is the difference between driving a yellow cab and uber? You're still driving people around, absolutely nothing. WTF is the difference between bolting iron beams together and bolting steel beams together? Still standing on a beam putting in bolts, absolutely nothing. WTF is the difference between writing accounting entries into a book or typing it into a keyboard. Nothing.

Secretaries replaced by electronic equipment and entertainment on demand are examples of technology eliminating jobs. Modern accounting software eliminates bookkeeping jobs as well as jobs of legions of of clerks that used to collate and do the calculations of all the accounting information. I have no clue what "dealing direct" means. Teaching on the internet means one person could literally teach millions instead of at most a couple hundred eliminating thousands of teaching jobs for every internet teacher. Nice. Thanks for making my point. You do remember you were arguing that new technologies were CREATING jobs don't you or is that too far back?

indigenous says

Why don't you back up one fucking thing you say instead of your usual carping, you supercilious asshole.

You said graduate students have almost all the student loans, not me. Proof provided, NONE. You said a large percentage of baby boomers were working in new fields, not me. Proof provided NONE. Show me the money Jerry McGuire. YOU need to support your statements when someone questions them. That's how the world works. I guess calling people names works when you can't support your bullshit.

bob2356 says

WTF is the difference between

the same diff as your asshole and a hole in the ground, your libby mentality prevents you from seeing a diff, can't help you.

Bob,

The key difference is making things more plentiful and cheaper (than otherwise would be in the absence of the new supply), so that consumers have more money left over to spend on something else and thereby creating new jobs (when all else being equal).

The problem we have is that all else not being equal: the government sponsored and regulated rent-seeking sectors are raising prices and soaking up consumer savings at an even faster rate than savings created by technology advance. For example, cheap imports (shipping technology) have enabled a lower percentage of American household income to go to clothing and furniture, yet heavily regulated sectors like medicine, education and housing are eating up a much higher percentage of American household income, leaving less money to consumer discretion.

Consumer discretionary spending is what drives technology advance, due to the competitive nature of that process, and therefore raising standards of living. Government regulated/sponsored/enforced industries (aka rent-seeking industries) eating up a greater and greater share of household income is the problem.

Ignore the 28% decline in Mortgage Applications today, it was all TRID related

Logan Mohtashami says

TRID

What does TRID stand for?

nm, found it on google. Lenders probably pushed as many mortgages as they could before the deadline.

FortWayne says

What does TRID stand for?

TRID is a new disclosure law that went into effect Oct 3, 2015

So, as usual, everyone rushed their applications to meet the deadline creating a huge number 2 weeks ago which just collapsed, so we are back to normal on the purchase applications data now

Before TRID expired

Today's Number, so you had a 25% increase on applications 2 weeks ago and 28% decrease in applications today

It screws the data lines up

FortWayne says

nm, found it on google. Lenders probably pushed as many mortgages as they could before the deadline.

I talked about it last week here

http://nationalmortgageprofessional.com/news/56018/did-trid-fuel-corybantic-uptick-mortgage-apps

Then gave a interview with Bloomberg today on it.

For people who don't track data everyday the numbers are to wild, but break the story down, then it makes sense

Thanks Logan

Shelter inflation continues to lead the way, accelerated to new cycle high of +3.2% yoy in September

0.11 away from the Fed target

Logan you got to explain those charts for simpletons like me. I have no idea what I'm looking at.

FortWayne says

Logan you got to explain those charts for simpletons like me. I have no idea what I'm looking at.

Orange Line is the rent inflation portion of the CPI index YoY ( year over year)

The blue line are all items outside of food, shelter and energy

Federal Reserve likes to stick to the core inflation rate of the CPI which is the 2nd cahrt

Blue line is core and the Red is everything headline and due to energy it's down big

Logan Mohtashami says

Orange Line is the rent inflation portion of the CPI index YoY ( year over year)

The blue line are all items outside of food, shelter and energy

Federal Reserve likes to stick to the core inflation rate of the CPI which is the 2nd cahrt

Blue line is core and the Red is everything headline and due to energy it's down big

Looks like luxuries get cheaper and necessities get more expensive. That's what I'm getting out of that chart.

FortWayne says

Looks like luxuries get cheaper and necessities get more expensive. That's what I'm getting out of that chart.

Demographics were more for renting in this cycle, however, on top of that you have millions were lost their homes which added to rental demand curve as well.

So, without the proper supply chain for all that demand your inflation rate stays strong.

This new chart shows that we are soon due for the next recession. Damn this government, we haven't even gotten out of this one yet even.

FortWayne says

This new chart shows that we are soon due for the next recession. Damn this government, we haven't even gotten out of this one yet even.

For a recession

We need to see claims rise above 300K without a one time economic event, 323K is my number, I don't see any recessionary economic trends,
You do have oil states getting hit hard with the oil crash, but everything else is working in a non recessionary environment. Profit margins probably have peaked but the we have a skilled labor shortage in American today

FortWayne says

This new chart shows that we are soon due for the next recession

When this break over 300K on a 4 week moving average without a one time economic event such as Sandy (the flood) was then
you can start talking about a possible recession data line curve

Logan Mohtashami says

When this break over 300K on a 4 week moving average without a one time economic event such as Sandy (the flood) was then

you can start talking about a possible recession data line curve

Thanks Logan. I'm just trying to understand the chart. The gray bars are recessions. All I'm looking is at the time periods between them. It just looks like all other periods have been pretty short compared to one now, so it feels like another grey bar should show up any minute on that chart now.

Is that not a right way to look at it? I don't understand this stuff, so would like to be put right where I'm wrong.

FortWayne says

Is that not a right way to look at it? I don't understand this stuff, so would like to be put right where I'm wrong.

When unemployment claims rise, that usually means profit margins have gotten so bad that the demand curve has led to people being laid off to get the companies finances from getting too much out of whack on the balance sheet

Obviously some company's can handle down turns better than others

However, once you get to this low in claims, if you get unemployment claims 4 week moving average to My level at least 323K which gets adjusted every time the 4 week moving average goes lower... then you can see that the economic backdrop is showing a negative YoY trend in the demand curve, over investment is a key factor into the equation as well.

Even with the 200K-300K oil jobs lost, that isn't enough to make claims rise in a meaningful way.

So, if there is just one economic data line I was allowed to follow, it's this one

Thank you for clarification. This helps.

Ironman says

Who's left to fire when you have 100 million currently not working?

We don't have 100 Million people out of work, that numbers is very misleading,

We are very demographically heavy ages 16-24 and 55 and over which that 100 million number gets thrown out

Prime working age Americans ages 25-54 are missing 2.9 million form the peak of housing bubble and 4.2 million from the peak of the stock market bubble

For housing, ages 28-42 matter the most in terms of the prime working age that people will be buying and that group is starting to grow again