patrick.net

Heraclitusstudent says

Well... you could build houses. But... nah.... we wouldn't let them.

All for targeting skill training, especially for men, labor shortage is showing up in construction. That I think would be a very cost effective program but very hard to enact with politics involved.

Too expensive to build homes for the builders to make their profit margin levels, almost need a federal intervention on that front

Logan Mohtashami says

When I talk about housing I am talking national not just California.

National should be much better.
And with banks sitting on trillions in excess reserves, I suspect a mortgage lending boom would result in a panic in the bond market.

Logan Mohtashami says

expensive to build homes for the builders to make their profit margin levels

Really? I haven't looked at builders costs BUT:
- Wages don't go up,
- commodities are down,
- housing prices go through the roof,
... and builders can't train workers?

I call BS on this one. Especially when a large number of trained workers were fired in the past 10 years and weren't rehired.
Maybe it would require giving a slightly smaller bonuses to execs. Which would require federal intervention.

Heraclitusstudent says

I call BS on this one. Especially when a large number of trained workers were fired in the past 10 years and weren't rehired.

Maybe it would require giving a slightly smaller bonuses to execs. Which would require federal intervention.

A lot people leave the industry and not a lot replacement workers training to be construction workers,

Job openings are there for construction, wage pressures are there for constructions workers but you just don't have the supply of them

construction jobs have had their best 12 months job gains in this cycle, but they can't find more skilled labor at this stage

We have more job openings here in America today than many nations total working labor force

Maybe anecdotal, but those openings are not turning into job offers at a significant rate. Maybe that will be the next phase of the economy?

lostand confused says

Maybe anecdotal, but those openings are not turning into job offers at a significant rate. Maybe that will be the next phase of the economy?

Prime working age Americans are only starting to grow again, the labor pool will have more supply of them comes years 2020-2024, it's a demographic issue that really can't be solve without time

lostand confused says

Maybe anecdotal, but those openings are not turning into job offers at a significant rate. Maybe that will be the next phase of the economy?

It feels that we are as a nation searching for that next big job creating something, but we don't know what it is. Unemployment and underemployment is severe still these days. One post on craigslist for a few guys to put up dry wall gets me almost a 1000 emails, that tells me just how fucked up the economy really is still.

FortWayne says

t feels that we are as a nation searching for that next big job creating something, but we don't know what it is.

This is how the business cycle works. New jobs get created when the business cycle begins to rise again. By new jobs it is meant new types of jobs not more of the same types of jobs. As Milton Friedman said America was built on layoffs [from old types of jobs].

The problem is that the Fed did not allow the layoffs to occur so the money that would have gone to new types of industries has instead gone to speculation in the stock market and speculation in RE and government jobs and long-term disability.

So what we have is a pathology instead of a recovery due ONLY to the Fed and the Keynesian pathology.

Let me say again slower for you Wogster. AIG and probably a good portion of GE and a good portion of GM et.al. were bailed out. As well as the banks as well as buying mortgages at face value rather than marked to market, as well as ZIRP, as well as QE x 4, 99 weeks of unemployment, as well as permanent disability, etc, etc. Not to mention that government employees don't get laid off.

So these many trillions of dollars do not make it to the market place. So dead wood is not stripped from the economy. So capital seeking the best yield goes to the stock market and RE.

What does not happen is a recovery. What does happen is a kicked in the head anemic feeble stagnation that we have now, where NEW jobs are NOT created.

Ducky opined: 4. Somehow the fed has something to do with long term disability. Yeah I'm pretty much drawing a blank on this one. It's too crazy even for my universal translator.
Oh come on, we all know a lot of unemployed folks gave up looking for work and took refuge in Social Security Disability. A poor mans Keynesian stimulus, but we will need to pay for it during the good times (or at some time). Per the AP (via NBC): The 11 million people who receive Social Security disability face steep benefit cuts next year — unless Congress acts, the government said Wednesday. The trustees that oversee Social Security said the disability trust fund will run out of money in late 2016, right in the middle of a presidential campaign. That would trigger an automatic 19 percent cut in benefits.
The average monthly benefit is $1,017.
But I will say, this is much more about survival, as these ARE the folks hit by the layoffs.

indigenous says

This is how the business cycle works. New jobs get created when the business cycle begins to rise again. By new jobs it is meant new types of jobs not more of the same types of jobs. As Milton Friedman said America was built on layoffs [from old types of jobs].

The problem is that the Fed did not allow the layoffs to occur so the money that would have gone to new types of industries has instead gone to speculation in the stock market and speculation in RE and government jobs and long-term disability.

So what we have is a pathology instead of a recovery due ONLY to the Fed and the Keynesian pathology.

That's probably the best explanation I've seen to this so far.

FortWayne says

That's probably the best explanation I've seen to this so far

It is beyond stupid actually.

FortWayne says

The problem is that the Fed did not allow the layoffs to occur

source: tradingeconomics.com

Sure looks like we had layoffs to me.

FortWayne says

so the money that would have gone to new types of industries has instead gone to speculation in the stock market and speculation in RE and government jobs and long-term disability.

Sure seems like there is a lot of money ready to be invested. The problem is that there is no reason to invest in new capacity or products because 90% of the population have no money.

Logan Mohtashami says

Job openings are there for construction, wage pressures are there for constructions workers but you just don't have the supply of them

WTF when did non farm employment become construction only? So what if there are job openings in construction. There are only 6 million construction jobs in the whole country or less than 2% of the population. Expanding that by 20%, which is a pipe dream, only adds 1 million jobs out of 140 million. That's not driving the house buying market anywhere.

bob2356 says

There are only 6 million construction jobs in the whole country or less than 2% of the population.

The JOLTS report is nationally for all Americans

Construction quality labor has been the number one compliant last year even thought construction jobs itself has had it's been 12 month run in the cycle, the demand is rising for construction and they simply need more quality labor

Today in the Small Business Report Labor concerns has outstripped sales demand, which is what you would see in the economic cycle as this stage

Such a low bar for construction that growth is in the works which needs more labor, it's just not a huge booming cycle for construction due to the soft single family built outs

indigenous says

bob2356 says

Millennials have moved and are moving to the cities in huge numbers already, they aren't going to be moving back out all that fast.

Primae facia that is not true otherwise suburbs would never had been built as cities are a far more efficient way to live.

What are you babbling about? Millennials are fleeing suburbs they grew up in to live in cities. Suburbs that are already built. Suburbs that initially were built because the interstate highway system allowed people to flee the dirty, dangerous, crowded cities that existed in the 1960's then became a lifestyle of their own. Most big cities today are disneyland compared to the 1960's.

indigenous says

bob2356 says

No debt isn't mostly owed by graduate students.

I don't think so:

How much in loans for students without a graduate degree vs graduate students? Hint each year about 4 million people take student loans that never finish college, about 4 million people do get a degree every year. 3.5 million undergrad, 500k master, 18k medical school, 30k law school. Not that there is any possibility it would happen, but you do the math and get back to me what percentage of the student loans owed belongs to graduate students. Bigger hint, 8 million people with modest loans trumps 50k with jumbo loans. It's not the dreaded rate of change thing that you so can't get, but it's a ratio's thing which is probably just as scary.

indigenous says

bob2356 says

Offshoring jobs? Stagnant or falling wages? Bankrupt pension plans? Not factors?

Not with millenials. Remember Say's law dictates that these millennials are going to be creating new jobs and new fields. IF the government lets them.

Really, that's interesting. You actually think 75 million people are going to be creating new jobs and new fields? That's really impressive. Insane, but impressive. I think the vast majority will have to get by with the current fields and jobs. Jobs that most of which are are either a commodity on the world market or subject to replacement by automation (or both) that will continue to face downward wage pressures.

How does a libertarian quote say in the first place? Say wanted public works projects for the unemployed. Too bad say wasn't around to explain how his law totally failed in the great depression. One thing you have to give libertarians credit for is if things don't work it's always because the market isn't free enough even though they can't define what free enough is.

Millenials haven't formed families yet.

If you have a better graph why don't you produce it, rather than depending on your blather?

" I think the vast majority will have to get by with the current fields and jobs. "

Like the farmers did?

Logan Mohtashami says

I believe the Fed will raise rates soon but to get a better feel on that you need to the 2 year note to have a 80 handle for the first rate hike.

The 34 year trend of lower rates still intact

Sir,

With housing costs going up in select markets (IE Goleta) and rents going up, food going up, not sure if this corresponds to the reduction in inflation in this chart.

Are you sure the same pundits that told us that the CRA and private label subprime were fine are now not gaming us with false statistics?

It is beyond stupid actually."

You set the standard on stupid.

Entitlemented says

the reduction in inflation in this chart.

Rent Inflation in Orange and everything else is blue from the CPI index

PITI Housing Inflation is not something CPI accounts for

Entitlemented says

Are you sure the same pundits that told us that the CRA and private label subprime were fine are now not gaming us with false statistics?

Yep--I'm pretty sure it's just that idiots who believe in shadowstats and that the CRA was the cause of the housing bubble are still clueless.

indigenous says

Millenials haven't formed families yet.

If you have a better graph why don't you produce it, rather than depending on your blather?

" I think the vast majority will have to get by with the current fields and jobs. "

Like the farmers did?

So you believe we are at the start of the industrial revolution where the majority of the population either farmed a dozen acres by hand for a sustenance living or working as a peasant/share cropper? Sure right.

What graph did you produce showing 75 million millennials will be starting new fields? I missed it.

bob2356 says

Really, that's interesting. You actually think 75 million people are going to be creating new jobs and new fields?

bob2356 says

So you believe we are at the start of the industrial revolution where the majority of the population either farmed a dozen acres by hand for a sustenance living or working as a peasant/share cropper? Sure right.

No I'm saying that, I am saying that new technology creates new jobs and that farming jobs got replaced by factory jobs.

bob2356 says

What graph did you produce showing 75 million millennials will be starting new fields? I missed it.

It is the way the economy works. No graph required.

Where is your graph showing that student loans are owed mostly by other than graduate students.

indigenous says

Where is your graph showing that student loans are owed mostly by other than graduate students.

You said graduate students have most of the loans, you prove it. The way things work is I questioned your assertion so now you back it up with something. All you've posted so far is 1% of people a year have more than 100k in loans. That means absolutely nothing, even for the mathematically challenged.

indigenous says

bob2356 says

What graph did you produce showing 75 million millennials will be starting new fields? I missed it.

It is the way the economy works. No graph required.

There were 70 million baby boomers, what percentage started new fields? I'll be waiting for that one a long, long time.

bob2356 says

So you believe we are at the start of the industrial revolution where the majority of the population either farmed a dozen acres by hand for a sustenance living or working as a peasant/share cropper? Sure right.

What graph did you produce showing 75 million millennials will be starting new fields? I missed it.

All you have to do is look at the past and you will see occupations and jobs follow technology.
Unless you believe "Anything that can be invented, has been invented."

bob2356 says

There were 70 million baby boomers, what percentage started new fields? I'll be waiting for that one a long, long time.

Small Computers, Cell Phones, the internet, computerized equipment, lasers, 3d printers, Cad, the industry and the jobs. A large percentage.

indigenous says

bob2356 says

There were 70 million baby boomers, what percentage started new fields? I'll be waiting for that one a long, long time.

Small Computers, Cell Phones, the internet, computerized equipment, lasers, 3d printers, Cad, the industry and the jobs. A large percentage.

What is that large percentage? Anything to offer other than pulling it out of your anal orifice? What about old fields like manufacturing, construction, transportation, shipping, finance, retail, food service, farming, mineral/oil extraction, military, politics, law, medicine, warehousing, teaching, management, engineering (non it), child care, bookkeeping/accounting, entertainment, etc., etc., etc.. All of those together are somehow the small percentage of jobs baby boomers are doing? Got any data at all or is it like student loans, it's true because I believe it should be true.

Strategist says

What graph did you produce showing 75 million millennials will be starting new fields? I missed it.

All you have to do is look at the past and you will see occupations and jobs follow technology.

Try to keep up. He said NEW FIELDS. Doing the same job using new technology isn't new fields. Like a secretary writing an email rather than a letter or a salesman calling on a cell phone instead of a land line. Same job, different medium.

bob2356 says

What is that large percentage? Anything to offer other than pulling it out of your anal orifice? What about old fields like manufacturing, construction, transportation, shipping, finance, retail, food service, farming, mineral/oil extraction, military, politics, law, medicine, warehousing, teaching, management, engineering (non it), child care, bookkeeping/accounting, entertainment, etc., etc., etc.. All of those together are somehow the small percentage of jobs baby boomers are doing? Got any data at all or is it like student loans, it's true because I believe it should be true.

It stands to reason that steel workers replacing iron workers, secretaries being replaced with electronic equipment, oil fracking, transportation using Uber or Lyft, finance dealing direct with the lending institution anywhere in the world, accounting with modern software, teaching via home school or the internet, entertainment on demand through the internet ALL COUNTS AS NEW FIELDS.

Why don't you back up one fucking thing you say instead of your usual carping, you supercilious asshole.

indigenous says

It stands to reason that steel workers replacing iron workers, secretaries being replaced with electronic equipment, oil fracking, transportation using Uber or Lyft, finance dealing direct with the lending institution anywhere in the world, accounting with modern software, teaching via home school or the internet, entertainment on demand through the internet ALL COUNTS AS NEW FIELDS.

All counts as new fields? That stands as your opinion, absolutely nothing else. My opinion is that if someone is doing the same work using different technology it's NOT a new field. WTF is the difference between oil drilling for the last 150 years and fracking other than someone pumps in fracking fluid at the end? The same guys stand there and feed the same exact pipe into the ground, nothing different. WTF is the difference between driving a yellow cab and uber? You're still driving people around, absolutely nothing. WTF is the difference between bolting iron beams together and bolting steel beams together? Still standing on a beam putting in bolts, absolutely nothing. WTF is the difference between writing accounting entries into a book or typing it into a keyboard. Nothing.

Secretaries replaced by electronic equipment and entertainment on demand are examples of technology eliminating jobs. Modern accounting software eliminates bookkeeping jobs as well as jobs of legions of of clerks that used to collate and do the calculations of all the accounting information. I have no clue what "dealing direct" means. Teaching on the internet means one person could literally teach millions instead of at most a couple hundred eliminating thousands of teaching jobs for every internet teacher. Nice. Thanks for making my point. You do remember you were arguing that new technologies were CREATING jobs don't you or is that too far back?

indigenous says

Why don't you back up one fucking thing you say instead of your usual carping, you supercilious asshole.

You said graduate students have almost all the student loans, not me. Proof provided, NONE. You said a large percentage of baby boomers were working in new fields, not me. Proof provided NONE. Show me the money Jerry McGuire. YOU need to support your statements when someone questions them. That's how the world works. I guess calling people names works when you can't support your bullshit.

bob2356 says

WTF is the difference between

the same diff as your asshole and a hole in the ground, your libby mentality prevents you from seeing a diff, can't help you.

Bob,

The key difference is making things more plentiful and cheaper (than otherwise would be in the absence of the new supply), so that consumers have more money left over to spend on something else and thereby creating new jobs (when all else being equal).

The problem we have is that all else not being equal: the government sponsored and regulated rent-seeking sectors are raising prices and soaking up consumer savings at an even faster rate than savings created by technology advance. For example, cheap imports (shipping technology) have enabled a lower percentage of American household income to go to clothing and furniture, yet heavily regulated sectors like medicine, education and housing are eating up a much higher percentage of American household income, leaving less money to consumer discretion.

Consumer discretionary spending is what drives technology advance, due to the competitive nature of that process, and therefore raising standards of living. Government regulated/sponsored/enforced industries (aka rent-seeking industries) eating up a greater and greater share of household income is the problem.

Ignore the 28% decline in Mortgage Applications today, it was all TRID related

Logan Mohtashami says

TRID

What does TRID stand for?

nm, found it on google. Lenders probably pushed as many mortgages as they could before the deadline.

FortWayne says

What does TRID stand for?

TRID is a new disclosure law that went into effect Oct 3, 2015

So, as usual, everyone rushed their applications to meet the deadline creating a huge number 2 weeks ago which just collapsed, so we are back to normal on the purchase applications data now

Before TRID expired

Today's Number, so you had a 25% increase on applications 2 weeks ago and 28% decrease in applications today

It screws the data lines up

FortWayne says

nm, found it on google. Lenders probably pushed as many mortgages as they could before the deadline.

I talked about it last week here

http://nationalmortgageprofessional.com/news/56018/did-trid-fuel-corybantic-uptick-mortgage-apps

Then gave a interview with Bloomberg today on it.

For people who don't track data everyday the numbers are to wild, but break the story down, then it makes sense

Thanks Logan