patrick.net

I still don't see how this could be the bottom when the state/local govts are in mass debt. More jobs will be cut, unemployment benefits willl be shortened, etc. This isn't the bottom, and since the majority of people feel that way, it won't be.

woggs1 says

STOP telling me about year over year!!!!!!

I was responding to the assertion made in the original post that “lately I have noticed that prices in the area I am interested in are coming down even know this is supposed to be the prime selling season.”

We are coming into prime selling season and prices are going UP not down.

The market is certainly heating up and I see it everywhere. I’m challenging the premise of the thread, NOT the fact that prices are lower now than June 2010.

Just because there's a *seasonal* price increase doesn't mean the year over year decline won't continue. The Fed prematurely ending its quantitative easing is indicative of a future rise in interest rates which will increase the likelihood of a major housing price decline.

higher end prices are down this spring/summer on the peninsula.

multiple houses in the good parts of san mateo in good locations are listed in the $600k's which i've never seen. similar situation in millbrae (900+ schools with very low crime) except they're in the $700k's, when they used to start in the $800k's last year.

you could find houses for these price ranges in the past but they'd always have some major problem like being located on a major street, close to the highway, school, or apartment.

i'm saying i see listing price lower than i've ever seen for decent houses in good locations in san mateo and millbrae.

you would not be able to find a decent house with good location in the good area of san mateo last year in the $600k's.

your redfin median stats won't show this trend until much later because it's only a few houses that show this weakness.

i saw the same thing in santa clara last summer. a handful of houses in decent locations lower than i've seen - at that time in the $500k's.
today, a year later, you can find many decent houses in santa clara in the $500k's, median $/sqft will confirm this change.

i suspect the same thing will happen in san mateo. a year or two from now you should be able to find more decent houses in the $600k-$700k range than you see today.

We didn't believe in realtors when the were saying that prices are only going to go up. Why would we believe them when they say that prices are only going to go down and down?

mnsweeps says

APOCALYPSEFUCK for POTUS ….I second that..

Or at least the Sheriff of some mountain town...no, with his handle on the Bay Area, he must be Sheriff of Marin Co!

APOCALYPSEFUCK says

Snack time, Fluffy!

That's your best.

APOCALYPSEFUCK says

hahahahahahaha the northern peninsula is so totally fucked, the next drop will be calamitous. When you read about this Realtor’s® suicide in the local paper, that will be your signal to buy.

Did you just invite me to a party? Wake? I am down with that...Let's party on dude. I'll even bring my own shovel and promise not step on the weeds growing around their tombstone, Here Lies "Lying (fill in the blank here)" ...maybe they will try to sell cemetary plots in hell?

mnsweeps says

APOCALYPSEFUCK for POTUS ….I second that..

It looks like we have a quorum? He has my votes....and I have some extra chads for him from Florida and the other Bush.

even if this is the bottom, housing may appreciate very slowly going forward.

proceed cautiously.

I was worried about it, about 1.5 years ago, but I sold that big old house and I don't worry about it no more. I would definitely say that wherever you see investors paying cash for homes and then renting them out, your seeing bottom or near bottom prices in that area.
If someone says you've got price drops coming to your area, take a look at prices, are they affordable?, are they in line with incomes?, is your local economy going great?, is SF overdue for an earthquake? Lots of things to consider and take into account, especially in cities where prices can vary considerably just because you crossed the street into a different neighborhood.

Most people think the current downtrend is the bottom, so it’s not! Down it goes! It can’t possibly go down any more!

If you're an adherent to the contrarian strategy, in which the inverse of conventional sentiment more closely approximates reality, (most people are mostly wrong about most things most of the time), then it seems to me that you must also compensate for the fact that contrarianism itself is a meme which continues to grow in popularity. Therefore, in at least some cases, the inverse of the inverse of popular opinion would better represent reality (or in the case of investing, real opportunities), which would effectively bring you full circle.

He loves me
He loves me not
He loves me

But it's so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you: are you the sort of man who would put the poison into his own goblet or his enemy's? Now, a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But you must have known I was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.

I think the reason the realtor is saying this is because the banks up to now have only been releasing about 18% of their inventory. This is a drop in the bucket. However they can no longer hold the flood gates back. I have also heard from a realtor and someone in the banking industry that a good deal of the shadow inventory will be released soon. Once that happens the supply will outweigh the demand and prices will plummet. Prices are not going up and will not stabilize until the market has corrected itself. This market can not be corrected until we start putting at least 70% of the homes onto the market for resale. The banks and Govt are trying to control the market and price points by holding back inventory and keeping the interest rate steady.

Germans are very cautious people about making public pronouncements. When they say something is going to happen, they do so after careful research, thought and consideration. Deutsche Bank recently publicly predicted a further 40% drop in housing prices in the state of New York. I would take this seriously and I think it applies to other sensitive housing markets like California.

I have two friends who are real estate agents and they BOTH told me not to buy anything for at least a year. And my brother was interested in investing some money and a mortgage broker/investor friend of his told him not to buy any real estate for a couple of years. That was a first and reinforces the idea that there is a lot more pain coming down the pike.

nah415 says

I have two friends who are real estate agents and they BOTH told me not to buy anything for at least a year. And my brother was interested in investing some money and a mortgage broker/investor friend of his told him not to buy any real estate for a couple of years. That was a first and reinforces the idea that there is a lot more pain coming down the pike.

one of the realtors (been in business for 30 years) on the Orange County redfin forums is pretty down on real estate.

he was neutral/bullish in 2010 but after looking at the data he admitted his 2011 forecasts were wrong. hard for most people to admit a mistake, easier to live in denial. he did the right thing.

everything says

out 1.5 years ago, but I sold that big old house and I don’t worry about it no more. I would definitely say that wherever you see investors paying cash for homes and then renting them out, your seeing bottom or near bottom prices in that area.

What if you have a market dominated by greedtarded investors whose only concern is that they turn 3% a year on their illiquid "asset"?

woggs1 says

The interesting think I am seeing is that there are still houses selling for top dollar, usually those houses have been “shined up” with granite and stainless steel, and the yard redone. These were bought on the cheap by investors usually at auction or short sale and superficially cleaned up. IMO those type houses are being bought by uninformed suckers who believe whatever their agent tells them.

I've seen some of these pergraniteel masterpieces. Sometimes they have crappy foundation work, poor construction, bad remodeling/additions, etc. It's impressive what people get fooled by.

We stopped paying in Elk Grove, CA on Oct 2010, moved in April. The house has lost value every month throughout the process. At the silly peak, this 3br/3ba 1880 sqft home could have sold for $375k. Today it's valued at less than $200k. I can only expect it will keep dropping. My combined mortgages were $2400. Now I'm paying $1600 a month for a bigger place and better amenities. We just walked away. At age 54, I may never buy again.

rocketjoe79 says

My combined mortgages were $2400. Now I’m paying $1600 a month for a bigger place and better amenities.

Why didn't you just rent in the first place if it was that much cheaper?

klarek says

Why didn’t you just rent in the first place if it was that much cheaper?

Like he knew the value was going to go down, huh? but he is better off then few people on this forum who bought in 2008/2009 knowing that they will be under water very soon. LOL.

bubblesitter says

klarek says

Why didn’t you just rent in the first place if it was that much cheaper?

Like he knew the value was going to go down, huh? but he is better off then few people on this forum who bought in 2008/2009 knowing that they will be under water very soon. LOL.

LOL is right. So someone whose home has lost 1-2% of its value is worse off than someone who lost their entire down payment and now has a foreclosure on their credit?

bubblesitter says

Like he knew the value was going to go down, huh?

I meant if it were so much incredibly cheaper to rent rather than own, why didn't he do that instead? I keep hearing people say, years after they bought, that "oh I can't rent my place out because I'd be negative a thousand per month cashflow". Um yeah, so why didn't you take a second to look at rental equivalents on craigslist before making a six-figure purchase?

Just pointing out how thanks to the rats working in the RE industry, home buyers do all the pertinent research AFTER they buy.

klarek says

I meant if it were so much incredibly cheaper to rent rather than own

Well, most loosers did not look at that(rent) angle at all. Back then it was like "buy at whatever price you can get".

But it’s so simple. All I have to do is divine from what I know of you: are you the sort of man who would put the poison into his own goblet or his enemy’s? Now, a clever man would put the poison into his own goblet, because he would know that only a great fool would reach for what he was given. I am not a great fool, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you. But you must have known I was not a great fool, you would have counted on it, so I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSCid-iOoe0

klarek says

rocketjoe79 says

My combined mortgages were $2400. Now I’m paying $1600 a month for a bigger place and better amenities.

Why didn’t you just rent in the first place if it was that much cheaper?

Klarek, rocketjoe was sharing his perspective and what hapened. People don't wanna hear the "why didn't you this... why didn't you that?..." Sounds like being a nag and doesn't offer any solutions nor suggestions on how to improve.

sybrib says

klarek says

rocketjoe79 says

My combined mortgages were $2400. Now I’m paying $1600 a month for a bigger place and better amenities.

Why didn’t you just rent in the first place if it was that much cheaper?

Klarek, rocketjoe was sharing his perspective and what hapened. People don’t wanna hear the “why didn’t you this… why didn’t you that?…” Sounds like being a nag and doesn’t offer any solutions nor suggestions on how to improve.

When people make statements to justify their behavior or choices, like it's some sort of epic discovery that renting remained cheap while housing prices doubled, it's worth asking why this wasn't done before they bought. I'm not nagging, it's a legitimate question.

Interesting thread. Hopefully the prices will move down to 2000 levels and stabilize at that level, that would be equilibrium. My impression is also that the prices are kinda trending up. People are still buying homes way beyond their means in the Bay Area.

Teddybearneil says

People are still buying homes way beyond their means in the Bay Area.

As a social worker, I can't imagine attempting to live in the Bay Area. I have a 3br house on an acre with a payment of $800 (piti); I couldn't even rent a place that's affordable out there.

Ellie, my PITI more than yours but actually if you scaled for the wages around here, it's probably less than yours.

But most of my neighbors are hardworking people in the trades, not elites like engineers / finance. Even the "semiskilled" who aren't in the trades, are hardworking.

There's an awful lot of folks on this blog who don't want to associate with folks like my neighbors, unless to exploit them as tenants or customers.

It is true that some of the kids of these folks bring down the campus API scores of the local schools. But contrary to the thinking of those Fortress Residents who genuflect to the gao tao culture, it does not always mean that opportunities are lacking here for children of Tiger Parents. Some would call me a Tiger Parent, both my kids enrolled in (and completed) all the AP classes they could handle, and if they could've handled more, the school had 'em.

If you don't mind sharing your block with hardworking hispanics; if you don't mind sending your kids to a public K-12 where a portion of the kids "pull down" the "campus average" API, it does not have to be a whole lot more expensive to live here.

Maybe it is even cheaper. I don't have, and we don't really need, AC. And we only turn the heat on occasionally from mid-Nov to about mid-March. Another cost savings might be public transit. I use it a lot because I penciled it out; often it is cheaper than driving my vehicles and during busy commutes it can be more convenient.

Teddybearneil says

Interesting thread. Hopefully the prices will move down to 2000 levels and stabilize at that level, that would be equilibrium. My impression is also that the prices are kinda trending up. People are still buying homes way beyond their means in the Bay Area.

No, look at the 15 or 20 yr charts. Equilibrium is around 1996 or 1998 prices, not 2000. The problem is the wages and cost of living. Wages keep stagnating while the cost of living rises which pushes down affordability.

Without funny money loans people can only spend what they make. Home prices will fall until they get in line with what people make, its just that simple.

Ahem, dunnross, there you go again.

Actually, I sort of agree with you on that one in one respect, because the weather is better here than Tokyo, London, Paris, New York.

ptiemann says

95122 or 95127?

Not here and neither one, but close.

I will tell you in person at City Lights Expresso.

Just gimme a headsup and look for the geek.

This comment is specific to Easton Addition and Ray Park areas in Burlingame. If the house is semi-decent we are seeing multiple offers with property selling above list price. In a couple of cases the property has sold 5-10% above 2006 prices!!!

We have been looking in this area for about 2 months & the situation is quite depressing.

Blah, blah, blah...... Now did anyone notice that for the first time in as long as I've been coming here religiously on a nightly basis that the daily update is 3 HOURS LATE?!?!

I say it's time everyone dip in their pocket and send Mr. K a little something to keep his forum up!!

idioticwordsofgod was comparing walnut creek to beverly hills, you can't possible take anyone seriously that is so delusional.

The reason prices keep dropping is because of bad economy getting worst. What makes you think that you'll still have a job, when those local home prices are at a level you can afford today?

"San Francisco is probably the most respected and desired international location in the entire United States. It’s certainly in competition for the title with New York."

Huh? Which explains while I was in Asia no one even mentioned or knew of it. I'd say most know about the Northeast due to NYC and the education in the Boston metro area. Then again when some talk happened about fires they implied they thought all of CA was on fire.

"If San Francisco doesn’t have world renowned culture and appeal, then no place in the United States does."

How does it have appeal when it's dropped 33% in price since the ? Have you been reading Richard Florida a tad too much? http://www.deptofnumbers.com/asking-prices/california/san-francisco/

If it has culture and appeal why has the African American population dropped in half since the 1970s? Asian and white isn't exactly diversity. Maybe diverse in that it has the largest amount of homeless people per capita than any other city in the country.

Does this sound like culture to you?
http://www.sfbg.com/40/03/news_despair.html

There's no diversity in SF, the weather is bad..some automatically think all of CA is warm and sunny but it actually gets cold in SF and cloudy.

I also think that the bay area as a term is way too large
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:California_Bay_Area_county_map.svg SF doesn't have even 850K people so to name a place that larger after SF..come on now.

The train system is poor and chances are Boston, NYC and DC have better ones.

SF might have been better in the 60's or 70s from a social perspective but gay rights are much more tolerated and drug laws have changed. It's mostly the views that people like not the people there. If that's the case just cut the taxes and regulation and let it boom. It could have grown like vegas but looks more like vermont!

dunnross says

but the weather in San Francisco is in no way better than the weather in Paris.

That's hilarious.

My sister slipped on icy pavement there one winter and lotsa chiropractor bills later felt OK again.

And there was the summer trip that the Parisian mosquitoes feasted on me.