patrick.net

So right now a 12-watt LED bulb costs $40 and has the same light output as a 60-watt incandescent.

The traditional $1 60-watt bulb gets at most 1500 hours, compared to 25,000 hours for the LED.

so it takes a 15 or so $1 bulbs to last as long as 1 LED bulb, leaving a $25 price premium for LED.

The RayAmericas of the world, lacking but the merest occasional glimmer of intelligence, say hurf durf government taking my money!

But of course, over its 25,000 hr service life, the 48 watts the LED is *not* burning adds up to 1200 kwhrs. At 20c per kwhr this is a $240 savings over the life of the bulb.

Government forcing people to pay $25 extra to save $240 in energy costs! If this is Marxist-Leninism we need a helluva lot more of it.

But Troy-you're missing the point. They no longer have the CHOICE to waste $240 if they want to. It's their money, why can't they waste it if they want to?

tatupu70 says

It’s their money, why can’t they waste it if they want to?

one answer would be external lighting. Nobody will bother to steal a $1 lightbulb, but a $40 one . . .

In soviet russia stealing lightbulbs from work was a big problem, I imagine $40 bulbs will effect a similar problem too.

This is why the government is trying to get the price down to $10. The problem is that the LED bulb makers see that $240 in energy savings that is on the table and want a piece of that action via higher profit margins.

I uses CFL's throughout the house. The lights work well and when they finally go bad, I will recycle them.

Ummmm.. are CFL's about to be banned as well? I dont' think so. CFL's are cheap enough to use on most places, and work well unless outside or anyplace where you don't turn the light on and off a lot.

I've had a fairly good experience with dedicated CFL fixtures. Not so much with drop in replacements; my back patio light started flickering after not much use and I've lost a couple of recessed lights pretty quickly. I'm still somewhat skeptical about recycling; hopefully it can be made so easy that folks will do it. The environmentalists claim that even if not recycled, the CFLs have less mercury than would be emitted by a coal plant (for the amount of energy saved). LEDs have issues with producing full spectrum white light. Cree has come up with some novel solutions in how they bin their LEDs, but cost is still an issue.
Today, typical LED replacement bulbs provide many years of energy savings over their lifetime, but not enough to reclaim their original cost. Sandia National Labs estimates that today’s LED lighting has twice the lifetime cost of ownership of incandescents and 10 times that of fluorescents.
I do wonder if the new law will be too much too soon. Paying premium for a product that doesn't last leaves one with a bad taste in their mouth.

What about landlords? Now they cannot replace renter bulbs cheaply offloading the utility costs.

No, no, no. As I've said before, a CNG Crown Vic practically screams landlord. This one would be perfect. Former City / County of San Francisco inmate transport vehicle. Still has cage and window bars (we can remove). Hmm... could be useful for transporting the kids.

RayAmerica, "look at the ducky" really is childish crap.

If you can't be a grown up, you shouldn't be here at all.

RayAmerica says

t sure is great when the Government gets into every aspect of our lives, isn’t it? Yep, nothing like being regulated by our dear, old, Uncle Sam. He really is looking out for our best interests.

The article says:

"However, LED prices are coming down quickly. The DoE expects a 60-watt equivalent LED bulb to cost $10 by 2015, putting them within striking range of the price of a compact fluorescent bulb. "

So 100W replacement LED bulbs will be alot less than $50 bucks by then.

That sakd, I'm skeptical about the claimed 50,000 hour lifetime. I have several LED flashlights and a few of them have developed dud LEDs at less than 100 hours of use. It's unclear what the failure threshold is -- one LED or all of them?

The typiclal white LED is actually a blue LED coated with a phosphor to balance the colors. This phosphor will age much as the phosphors on old bank ATM monitor. I'd be surprised if the light output and color balance are just as good after a few years of use.

Then there's the electronics, heat and thermal cycling problems made worse in enclosed fixtures, blah blah ...

Vicente: I picked up a few LED bulbs on a Target sale shelf for $8 each last month.
These are R20 form-factor for recessed ceiling fixtures and they work very well. I like a lot that they are full brightness at start unlike CFL.
That must have been one heck of a sale. They're currently $32.99 at Target online (20k hours lifetime). It does seem that any decent PAR20 LED goes for above $30 (with cheaper ones around twenty bucks that don't do as well with color temp and output brightness).
I do like your point about landlords. Enlightened self interest doesn't motivate home builders with regards to efficiency measures as they're upfront costs -- that's why there's Title 24 (and federal mandates).
I guess this whole need to retrofit is a necessary evil; it will be more exciting to see what type of fixtures get designed into future homes and buildings once LEDs hit their stride.

EBGuy says

That must have been one heck of a sale. They’re currently $32.99 at Target online (20k hours lifetime).

Yeah I think Target decided to stop selling them. They were on the end-cap sale shelf so I grabbed two, wish I'd gotten a couple more now. I had never thought of the fixture angle, yes ideally you'd have some sort of strip instead of a bulb, but SO many hassles in retrofit on all the used houses....

"What about landlords? Now they cannot replace renter bulbs cheaply offloading the utility costs."

You think landlords are going to install expensive LED lights? Hold your breath and wait!

Troy says

one answer would be external lighting. Nobody will bother to steal a $1 lightbulb, but a $40 one . . .

I remember recently there were some thugs stealing catalytic converters from cars (for copper or something of that nature). I'm sure these thieves will return now stealing light bulbs.

ChrisLA says

I remember recently there were some thugs stealing catalytic converters from cars

not that it really matters, but I think it's platinum and maybe something else.

Lucky's, here in the SF Bay Area, has 60 watt rated CFL's priced at $1.28 for a box of three bulbs. That's right, $1.28. The local utility (PGE) subsidizes the cost.

Troy says

Government forcing people to pay $25 extra to save $240 in energy costs! If this is Marxist-Leninism we need a helluva lot more of it.

But if you just let the free market work, rational actors will replace all their incandescents with compact florescents.

Nobody would be foolish enough to keep using incandescents. Therefore they don't exist.

jvolstad says

Lucky’s, here in the SF Bay Area, has 60 watt rated CFL’s priced at $1.28 for a box of three bulbs. That’s right, $1.28. The local utility (PGE) subsidizes the cost.

No kidding. I picked up about 100 a few months ago.

RayAmerica says

Look at the Ducky! He’s right out in front leading “The Charge of the Light Brigade.” Now light bulbs are an important factor to our “national security!” LOL !!!

Maybe you should stock up on incandescent light bulbs while you still can RayAmerica. I replaced all of the incandescent bulbs with CFL's over 4 years ago. Perhaps your upset the government isn't offering you a choice, to continue to purchase the old bulbs when better alternatives are available.

Unfortunately most people don't look at the long term, they think too short term. They will buy a $1 light bulb when the $3 CFL bulb will save them $100 over it's life time.

If a car was $7,000 but only got 10 MPG, and another car was $15,000 and got 30 MPG most people on a budget would buy
cheaper car.

Sometimes people need a push to change there habits, so yes the government has you best interests in this case.

TechGromit says

Sometimes people need a push to change there habits, so yes the government has you best interests in this case.

Possibly so, but instead of banning incandescent light bulbs, they could be taxed until they are more expensive than CFL's. That way people would still have a choice, and those who, for some reason need an incandescent can still get one. It's the whole not being given a choice part that bothers me. I guess liberals don't have such qualms.

http://gratewire.com/topic/note-to-fox-news-george-w-bush-banned-incandescent-light-bulbs

Looks like the evil gob'mint's been up to this plan for 4 years. I'm going to stockpile incandescent bulbs and in 10 years I'll sell them for $10 each - or more on ebay. I'll be rich and ya'll will be so sorry you ever doubted me.

The only flaw with that is that the world is ending this Saturday and the only thing my bulb stockpile will do is light the way... for the pure, anyway.

elliemae says

I’m going to stockpile incandescent bulbs and in 10 years I’ll sell them for $10 each - or more on ebay. I’ll be rich and ya’ll will be so sorry you ever doubted me.

I was thinking about doing the same, well in a way anyway. Every bulb in the house is CFL except one lighting Fixture a CFL will not fix into AND the bathroom vanity lights. We have the clear bulbs in the vanities, don't like the look of other bulbs in there, might have to pick up a few extra for the future.

TechGromit says

We have the clear bulbs in the vanities, don’t like the look of other bulbs in there, might have to pick up a few extra for the future.

You might also consider reducing the lamp voltage with a dimmer. A 10% voltage reduction will extend the bulb's life by a factor of 4.

elliemae says

http://gratewire.com/topic/note-to-fox-news-george-w-bush-banned-incandescent-light-bulbs
Looks like the evil gob’mint’s been up to this plan for 4 years. I’m going to stockpile incandescent bulbs and in 10 years I’ll sell them for $10 each - or more on ebay. I’ll be rich and ya’ll will be so sorry you ever doubted me.
The only flaw with that is that the world is ending this Saturday and the only thing my bulb stockpile will do is light the way… for the pure, anyway.

Ellie, I'm thinking we will both be left behind. We could get together and raid the houses of the "chosen ones" who got caught up in the "Rapture." We could corner the market in all sorts of goods then. According to this local pastor (in Oakland no less) we'll have several years to "suffer" through the reign of the Anti-Christ here on Earth before finally being destroyed when we get sent to the firey place.

I'm imagining it'll be like Miami there. You know, like the "New Israel" in Florida? According to these people all of us Jews will be there. I'm not sure that it would be paradise having to live with ourselves in humid conditions though. My Jewfro would be quite unmanageable under those conditions. But I do like going to the beach. 8)

We could rebuild Sodom and Gemorrah! I've always preferred to be called a "Gemorran" anyway...

If we corner the market on incandescent bulbs we'd be able to add to the heat and light of the place. Some like it hot! 8)

Please flag any direct insults to users.

I can't be everywhere. Hey, maybe I can. I could make the forum notify me if any one addresses me directly by writing "Patrick, " or "Patrick: "

Maybe I'll do that.

A few years until the end? I've heard it's everything from a few months to a few years. Simcha, I'd be honored to spend final days with you... but raiding the houses of those who were pure might be boring.

They probably either ATM'd their homes & gave all their extra money to the reverend's telethon, or never had anything else to distract them anyway.

The "gave it to the reverend" comment is a quote from "Repo Man." Great film.

Now what am I gonna do with my Easy Bake Oven...

I don't like the government limiting my choices - unlike most around here I call BS on that. Yes get government out of my life.

That said, I live in the SF bay area and also buy the CF bulbs that PG&E subsidizes. I've got no major complaints about them. They are nothing spectacular and fail just as frequently as my incandescent bulbs did. Easy enough to recycle; I just drop them off at Ace Hardware for free.

There was an interesting set of dramatic articles a few weeks back. Some scientists in Europe (who are also going to have government limit their choices) apparently finished a study showing the CF bulbs produce a 'toxic smog' of styrene and a couple of other chemicals. They had guidelines: only use for short periods and definitely not near the head. No other scientists have had time to repeat their experiments yet and I couldn't find any detailed info about their study. I suspect this may be BS too. Sure would blow if it turns out to be true. I don't want to have to put a freaking $50 bulb in my apartment.

Easy enough to find the articles though if anyone searches for toxic smog and styrene on the interwebs..

Also, I don't know if anyone has noticed - the San Mateo bridge has a large pile of sodium vapor (old school) bulbs piled up near the toll station. It looks as if they've replaced all of the lights on the bridge with LED?! If they are what I think they are I wonder how much THAT cost?

Seagulls sit up there now because they are long flat strips. Drop bombs through my sun roof. :)

Life happens, we all move on. Green is good, and prices will drop.

APOCALYPSEFUCK says

Hey, Martha, throw the Wii out the window and get in here and sit on my face in the name of National Security!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0fBAwDKPcI

To make these more affordable I suppose PG&E could subsidize them -- sell you them for $1/each and then bill you $1/each over the next 36 months.

There's a 48 watt difference so if the light is used 4 hours a night it will cut 5kwh from one's monthly bill, making the payback a wash.

APOCALYPSEFUCK says

Just tear out the fucking bulbs and be done with it.
It’s dark? Great. Drag spouse to bed and fuck like weasels until you pass out in a sweaty heap like normal people.
Who needs to be up all night shouting on the Internet.
Hey, Martha, throw the Wii out the window and get in here and sit on my face in the name of National Security!

+1

Vicente says

+1

Yes, I really need to get some kind of voting system going. But what would category would that last post be in?

APOCALYPSEFUCK says

Just tear out the fucking bulbs and be done with it.
It’s dark? Great. Drag spouse to bed and fuck like weasels until you pass out in a sweaty heap like normal people.
Who needs to be up all night shouting on the Internet.
Hey, Martha, throw the Wii out the window and get in here and sit on my face in the name of National Security!

I think this is what India claims is the root cause of their massive overpopulation; people screwing because they have nothing better to do. I do agree though once in a while one needs to shut everything off and get to it though.

just_passing_through says

Americans expect the govt to wipe their butts too much these days. The most responsible woman I’ve dated here in the bay area [actually, the only one and I date a-lot!] was a South American from Brazil. Her father was a banker who lost his job during the banking crisis down there. She spent a short period of time deprived of food. Here as a 21 year old illegal alien she: Got a decent job as a nanny paying $65K/yr with health insurance and vacation, bought a new car and paid it off, continued her education as a pianist, paid her rent and bills on time, bought a piano, put her self through college to become an accountant - all without help from the government. Well, there was this letter from the state ‘no big deal we’ll cover your medical emergency costs’ of $3K when she didn’t have a job and had first moved here.

My bullshit meter just went off the scale. Let's see, 21 year old illegal taking down 65k with health insurance and vacation as a nanny. Come on. I was born at night but I wasn't born last night on the back of a turnip truck.

bob2356 says

My bullshit meter just went off the scale. Let’s see, 21 year old illegal taking down 65k with health insurance and vacation as a nanny. Come on. I was born at night but I wasn’t born last night on the back of a turnip truck.

You don't have to believe it but there are some wealthy folks in Palo Alto that pay well for good help - or would ten years ago anyway. When I was rambling I didn't make my point as well as I'd have liked. I left out that she did all of that without going into any sort of debt either. She used a tax ID number as a social security number to start her college career at Foot Hill college - highly illegal I'm sure, but she was very determined...

Polar opposite of the "I'm entitled", "the govt should save me from myself" attitudes I've experienced so much in the bay area. Weak...

thunderlips11 says

You know where the funding for basic genetics and human genome research comes from, right?
Hint: Not from Eli-Lily or Johnson & Johnson. They don’t “waste” money on “Theoretical” research. Shareholders aren’t interested in expanding the borders of knowledge, they want profitable, marketable products.

If you are referring to the NIH sure, they are still big players. With the advent of Next Generation sequencing technologies and the drop in prices funding is coming from all over now though. The Broad institute is a big center. BGI as well. Soon poor post-docs will have their very own machines.

I've never heard of Lilly or Johnson, can't argue with that. Pfizer spends plenty as does Roche, Genentech, and hundreds of others. If you haven't heard it's not so theoretical anymore - there are many applications. Yes, there are dead ends and it's not perfect.

The tech has entered a hyper moores-law phase. Everyone who's anyone is using it. Consequently, now there is too much data for computers to handle very well but that's another story.

Obligatory:

They are 95% efficient when used as a heater. Be warned though, "During its use as a heater, HEATBALLS have an unavoidable emission of light in the visible spectrum."

zzyzzx says

Obligatory:

They are 95% efficient when used as a heater. Be warned though, "During its use as a heater, HEATBALLS have an unavoidable emission of light in the visible spectrum."

Paint it black and you can make it 100%!

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Shostakovich says

Just tear out the fucking bulbs and be done with it.

It's dark? Great. Drag spouse to bed and fuck like weasels until you pass out in a sweaty heap like normal people.

Who needs to be up all night shouting on the Internet.

Hey, Martha, throw the Wii out the window and get in here and sit on my face in the name of National Security!

Yeah!!

That's because I posted to many times about how I have to use 5 CFL light bulbs in every room in my house, just to read the remote labels.

What if I need 5 of them just to see, do you think Obamacare will cover it? I mean just think of all of the healthcare savings, when I'm not going to the ER every day for tripping over the coffee table.