patrick.net

ArtimusMaxtor says

Make sure you write this down so you don’t forget it.

Said with moxie! :)

ArtimusMaxtor says

Whats going to happen is just the opposite of the rising equity days. That involves way to much risk. On the interest mavens part. Lender after lender has closed their doors. That is telling you rising equity has gone away. Along with EZ credit. There was much incentive to sell a mortgage get it backed by an MBS and sell it on the open market. GONE. Now your dealing with credit period. And that my friends is going to lead to several things. I won’t go into them here. We are talking 1960s credit standards here.

You know, I like the rant. I almost hope you are right, or at least partly right...but the thing I keep thinking is that greed is going peek its head out of the closet, and in a few year we will have "reasonable" standards. 10-15% down, say? Why does it have to go all the way back to 60's lending standards?

ArtimusMaxtor says

86% of the data is bogus. On sold houses. The pricing history is just a statistical graph.

Some of their data is synthetic, like the Zestimate....The Zillow Home Value Index appears to be fakey too...But there are plenty of other metrics, such as "sale price per sqft" which sure are presented like they are "real data", and not some algorithmic guess (Zestimate). BTW, if it is statistical data, I'm OK with that...it's the synthetic data that I ignore.

The problem you were seeing (86% of the data is bogus) doesn't seem to be a problem in the Denver area. I did a spot check of 4-5 recently sold homes (in some cases including long histories of sold prices) and it was in 100% perfect agreement with the Denver public records. Granted, I only looked at 4-5, but I have spot checked in the past with the same results.

For my use I think Zillow, with a few caveats, is helpful and reliable.

-S

60's prices of course. Swebb. Denver is different of course. As far as price stability. Sales etc, That I would not know. I haven't looked at Denver. Not one house. The way things go here. It not much of a ventured guess to know that.

Given the fact the very same people ripped off people world wide with the MBS scam. I don't trust them very much. Neither do a lot of forgein countries. Once again I will give anyone the challange. Take about 20 sold houses on Zillow take them to the courthouse and compare the records. NOT the tax assesors office. If you don't have the time try going to some of the appraisers forums. They call Zillows records fantasy. Most appraisers are working stiffs. Very, very tired of being asked to juke numbers to get the house into a better price range.

"As A Real Estate Agent in California I never use Zillow their information is false and useless" Real estate agent in California.

"They know they're offering bogus data, but they don't care because consumers are eating it up, and they can use this for leverage to sell advertising packages to real estate agents"

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/04/20/why-im-not-buying-zillow/

Thats a few of the quotes from the comments. Now I take the professionals opinions. Reason? I am one also. I was using Zillow for the convience. However many things did not make sense. So I checked their houses sold. Most of them do not exsist. They are not licenced professionals. You have no recourse to them. Just like you would not have recourse to the NAR. They are also not licensed but an association. If Zillow had a license it would be gone in 10 seconds. Don't use tax assesors information ever. Take the records to the deeds room and do a search.

In addition in the Superior court where the warrentee deeds are. You will find a lot of people pulling title for title companies and attorneys depending where you live. You can pay one of those say 50 bucks or so and they will pull the titles for you and tell you all about them. Weather they have been sold or not. What your going to find is whole cloth.

So the thing to do if your not a professional. You pay a Real estate broker 100 dollars. He will issue you a broker price opinion on the house. That is much cheaper than an appraisal if you are just trying to find out how much it is worth. Some will go as low as 75 dollars. Make sure he goes out to see the house. It's called a BPO for the noob's

ArtimusMaxtor says

So the thing to do if your not a professional. You pay a Real estate broker 100 dollars. He will issue you a broker price opinion on the house. That is much cheaper than an appraisal if you are just trying to find out how much it is worth. Some will go as low as 75 dollars. Make sure he goes out to see the house. It’s called a BPO for the noob’s

What is the normal price difference that comes out between a BPO and appraiser's appraisal?

Pretty much nothing. While an appraisal serves as a complete anaylsis of the market. Suitable for the lender. You can almost count on the fact they are very similar. Again there is a licence involved. The BPO is not done by a common real estate agent. It is done by the broker who owns the real estate company where the agents work. While it cannot serve as an appraisal. It is the opinion of the broker.

I would think that they do this to seperate out any self interest a broker might have vs a designated person like an appraiser who might have no self interest. However the way things are any appraiser will lament things just don't wash out that way for them either. BPO's are seldom used. Because of that simple fact. They can usually be counted on to be very accurate.

I will add this seperatly. I feel sorry for appraisers. They take pride usually in their licensing. They take pride in what they do. There are some nut cases out there in the appraisal world. However the way things are forces most of them into some really crappy situations. Which for the most part they don't like at all. I would say overall they are a fairly honest group.

One other note. I read the FDIC failed bank list. It's interesting that they are not talking about the high rate of credit card defaults. It must be astronomical. Given the fact that people will default on those before losing their house all day long.

I notice names like Canyon bank. Legacy, Superior National bank. There were many of these that issued credit cards. They all seem to be in default. They had higher than normal rates in some cases. This only means people were going in to get these in some cases as a last measure.

The FDIC failed list is riddled with those credit card issuing banks. However no mention is made of them for some unkown reason. If you have the thinking ability. You will understand that credit cards are now a nuclear disaster. The size of it even dwarfs the foreclousers that are taking place.

ArtimusMaxtor says

If you have the thinking ability. You will understand that credit cards are now a nuclear disaster. The size of it even dwarfs the foreclousers that are taking place.

Well of course. That almost entire income sucking mortgage payment which can't be sustained in these bad times has to spill over into credit card markets.

Exactly. However thats not whats being said. There is a certain amount of stability in Hawaii. I would think. However for the rest of the land. Thats just not the situation. We all recognize credit card issuing banks. Used for establishing credit in many cases. THEY HAVE ALL FOLDED. For the most part look at the FDIC list. In some cases they paid higher rates for their money to lend out.

Why they are hiding these losses one can only guess. Deal is it's not YOU or ME they are hiding these losses from. There is method to this. They only hope and pray certain people don't catch on.

See the deal is here. You might think someone like Geithner would be doing something like this. However the brain trust that started credit cards. Would be more the culprits. See I pull landlord credit reports. Have been doing so for years. The losses in the credit card industry has been astronomical for years. BOA is not a really good indicator. Its more like the fox watching the hen house. I would say if you added it all up. It makes the foreclouser blowout, look like kids buying penny candy.

HousingBoom says

Who wants to catch a falling knife? Most people still think that housing has bottomed but the mainstream media already pulled the plug on the housing market. We see nothing but bad news in housing now and people are beginning to wait on the sidelines.

People, including the media, have been saying "housing has bottomed and the recovery is on" for the past five years. And they'll continue that line for the next five years. The bottom is going to be lower than the bubble start prices. Right now prices are still higher than the bubble start. Doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the correction still has a long way to go. Evidently, though, it does take honesty, something that the media, being paid by real estate advertisements, is incapable of.

With so many people noticing a dip in prices, look for C-S NSA numbers to reach a new post-bubble low (yes, double dip) within the next 2 months or so.

The C-S 20-city NSA index is now at 139.27, or 0.01 points above the post-bubble low from 2009.

DOUBLE DIP IS COMING !!

http://patrick.net/?p=688527

Real Property (home) prices will return to two and one half times the annual income of the buyer !!!
That is not a government rule it is a phenomenon.
The high income techy jobs have dwindled. Not so many overpaid, anxious investors.
Home prices would have returned to normal already if the gubmint would stop interfering. TARP, QED,,,,
We also need to force the FBI to prosecute all banks for forging ownership documents. Google "DOCX"

vain says

Karen these properties were valued at high 300k’s since mid to late 1990 circa. you are right about anything past skyline blvd though. there is no demand for those properties.

Say more about the neighborhood, if you don't mind. Why is there no demand? Is it the weather? The schools? When you say past Skyline, do you mean Daly City? That other streets border the area you are talking about?

bg says

Say more about the neighborhood, if you don’t mind. Why is there no demand? Is it the weather? The schools? When you say past Skyline, do you mean Daly City? That other streets border the area you are talking about?

There is no demand for any properties west of Skyline Blvd (aka, Highway 35). Reason being is that nobody really treats Highway 35 as a highway. It's just an annoyance and it's very inaccessible via highway. The properties closer towards the ocean wear and tear faster here (in Daly City). I guess it all sums down to weather.