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We are now in leg II of the housing bust. When we hit the next plateau, there will be lots of new knife-catchers. Leg III will follow shortly after.


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2011 Mar 26, 8:20am   1,993 views  9 comments

by dunnross   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

1975 will be the final destination of leg III. I hope to see most of you, Patrick.net readers buying your long-awaited properties then.

#housing

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1   tatupu70   2011 Mar 26, 8:44am  

Just for clarification--1975 nominal prices, or inflation adjusted?

2   Vicente   2011 Mar 26, 8:45am  

Did you mean to post some actual content to back that up? A link to an article or something?

In it's current state I'm giving this thread a thumbs-down.

3   marcus   2011 Mar 26, 8:48am  

This guy sounds like a buyer to me.

4   elliemae   2011 Mar 26, 1:58pm  

1975? Get your vehicle ready to get you there:

I've got a call in to Michael J. Fox, awaiting call back.

5   American in Japan   2011 Mar 26, 2:44pm  

As they say in Australia: "Well done mate!"

6   elliemae   2011 Mar 26, 3:08pm  

I, like, totally screwed up. The appropriate photo would have been:

But then, if the OP comes up with a fourth leg my response is irrelevent.

7   RC2006   2011 Mar 27, 1:54am  

Houses come down to 1975 levels I’ll be buying a half dozen, maybe a few on the beach LOL.

How Much things cost in 1975
Yearly Inflation Rate USA9.2%
Year End Close Dow Jones Industrial Average 858
Interest Rates Year End Federal Reserve 7.25%
Average Cost of new house $39,300.00
Average Income per year $14,100.00
Average Monthly Rent $200.00
Cost of a gallon of Gas 44 cents
Average cost new car$4,250.00
Foster Grant Sun Glasses $5.00

8   Vicente   2011 Mar 27, 3:56am  

rpanic01 says

Average Cost of new house $39,300.00

Average Income per year $14,100.00

So average house cost 2.7 times income.

That 14,100 would be approximately $56,000 in 2011 dollars.

Let's say for the sake of argument 2.7x though which is $151,200 which is actually doable in a lot of places in the USA right now.

However both median and average income are actually a bit lower than that closer to $50,000 dollars.

I expect if interest rates went to 7.25% the average house would rapidly drop to 2.0x

9   Fisk   2011 Mar 27, 5:55am  

Vicente says

Let’s say for the sake of argument 2.7x though which is $151,200 which is actually doable in a lot of places in the USA right now.

Indeed, especially for an average 1960-s vintage house (which was perhaps the average house in 1975). The payment would, of course, be much lower because the rates are FAR from 7.25%. So how this fits into the argument that the housing is still substantially overpriced?

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