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Shadow Inventory is now Out of The Closet - Thanks to Redfin!


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2011 Feb 24, 4:48am   4,523 views  18 comments

by Mark_LA   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

A very large portion of the Shadow Inventory is now visible, for free on Redfin. As of last night, Redfin changed their source for Foreclosure data. We're now able to use Redfin's unmatched interface to list all Foreclosures that are still not on the Market.

A quick & rough geographical filter of all Foreclosures in the LA, OC, and Inland Empire shows is that banks are withholding at least 16,490 Shadow Inventory homes they've foreclosed from the market:

Among those, are these foreclosures in PRIME areas:

Sold for $2.1 million in bubbly 2006, foreclosed back to "BEAR STEARNS TRUST SERIES 2007-1" due to no takers at $1.5 million in June 2009...yet to see the light of day on the MLS:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Pacific-Palisades/545-Mount-Holyoke-Ave-90272/home/6841678

Sold for $2.6 million in bubbly 2006, foreclosed back to "CWALT INC TRUST 2006-OA19" due to no takers at 50% off ($1.35 million) on June 2010...yet to see the light of day on the MLS:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Los-Angeles/11158-W-Sunset-Blvd-90049/home/6828547

#housing

Comments 1 - 18 of 18        Search these comments

1   bayhousehunter   2011 Feb 24, 4:54am  

fantastic! Thanks. I am already a redfinnian. Now I have to schedule a couple of hours today to just pore over the shadow foreclosure inventory in the bay area.

2   burritos   2011 Feb 24, 4:56am  

Love Redfin. This is the site I used to screen for my last rental property.

3   vain   2011 Feb 24, 5:02am  

Mark_LA, Redfin's #'s are understated. I have a Realtor(R) tool called Realist. The area I'm looking in has about 50 per Redfin. Per county records, there's about 200++

That's about 400% difference. I'm thinking your area is understated by a large percentage as well.

I'd try to verify your area. But the Realist tool only limits me to 999 (I think that was the number) search results.

4   Mark_LA   2011 Feb 24, 5:09am  

vain says

Mark_LA, Redfin’s #’s are understated. I have a Realtor(R) tool called Realist. The area I’m looking in has about 50 per Redfin. Per county records, there’s about 200++
That’s about 400% difference. I’m thinking your area is understated by a large percentage as well.

I'm sure you're right, but keep in mind this isn't all shadow inventory, just those that have been foreclosed, but have yet to be put on the MLS. Your tool might include Notices of Default and Notices of Trustee Sale, which definitely is distressed, possible future shadow inventory, but the ones listed on Redfin are without a doubt Shadow Inventory. But for now, this is the best free source of this shadow inventory data.

5   vain   2011 Feb 24, 5:11am  

Mark, I search homes in forclosure stage statused as "bank owned." I can search for NOD's as well and ones in NOTS stage.

It's not hard to spot out errors on the "Bank Owned" as well because it reports the owner on record is right next to each record. They're all banks and names like Aurora Ln Svs, and the like.

You're familiar with the area. Try narrowing it down to a certain zip code (so that it can fit within my max search results) and I'll give you a list of all the bank owned so you can compare it to redfin. I'm sure you'll notice a large difference.

6   Mark_LA   2011 Feb 24, 5:17am  

vain says

I’d try to verify your area. But the Realist tool only limits me to 999 search results.

Let's narrow things down to Foreclosure rich Moreno Valley, CA:

Remember to limit your search to foreclosed properties that have yet to hit the MLS...don't include those already on the MLS.

7   vain   2011 Feb 24, 5:38am  

The Realist tool has nothing to do with the MLS. So unfortunately I cannot exclude homes listed. My search results are actually only limited to 99, but I can pay to export up to 999 on an excel spreadsheet. I'll just break up Moreno Valley into its individual zip codes. 92551-7. This may take a little bit since I'm doing this at work...

Edit: This became harder than I had thought. Riverside county only limits me to 100 results per query. Zip codes 92551, 92553, 92555, and 92557 all had at least 100 properties that are owned by a bank. Is there something that will allow me to divide these properties up into two groups?

Or did you wanna try a smaller area?

8   Mark_LA   2011 Feb 24, 5:51am  

vain says

The Realist tool has nothing to do with the MLS. So unfortunately I cannot exclude homes listed. My search results are actually only limited to 99, but I can pay to export up to 999 on an excel spreadsheet. I’ll just break up Moreno Valley into its individual zip codes. 92551-7. This may take a little bit since I’m doing this at work…

Let's pick a foreclosure-poor PRIME area like Santa Monica, CA then:

9   Mark_LA   2011 Feb 24, 6:00am  

SF ace says

Based on Redin, there is a grand total of 1 SFH in Foreclosure in San Marino. Pretty sure no discount for that. 1.1M
Out of curiosity, my zip 94127 has 3.
Great find though, thanks!

That's largely because San Marino has the highest-rated public school district, based on API scores, in California. This is one of the few areas where the cash-rich Asian buyer myth is a reality.

My Chinese-American friend actually moved from San Marino to neighboring South Pasadena because his Americanized Chinese, English-only speaking, children didn't fit in with the first-generation, Mandarin speaking, Chinese immigrant students that have overtaken that area. Their parents don't speak English well, but have a lot of money, so they all hire private tutors for them and send them to Saturday school. Bottom line is that if you're Asian and don't have a 4.5 weighted GPA, you're not getting into Berkeley with a measly 4.0 GPA due to the competition from the over-stressed children in the San Marino school district.

South Pasadena has schools that were just as good, but more racially diversified. Now, they actually have a chance of getting into his alma mater, Berkeley, since the competition isn't as stiff/robotic and the teaching is still top-notch. They also have a more normal typical American upbringing.

10   vain   2011 Feb 24, 6:16am  

Santa Monica: Again this is not connected with the MLS so I wouldn't know which are listed. I also do not have access to the MLS aside from the San Mateo County. Some owner names are questionable so I'd exclude them. I have no clue what Pr Revello Llc is. A total of 64.

I particularly find "1526 Lincoln Blvd 90401 Safeway Inc" interesting. It's flagged as bank owned.

2721 2nd St # 212 90405 Gsaa Home Trust 2007-5
1040 4th St # 306 90403 Washington Mutual 2007-Oa4 Tru
2311 4th St # 112 90405 Indymac Indx Mtg Ln 2006-Ar8
1410 5th St 90401 1410 5th Street Llc
3101 5th St # 14 90405 Federal Natl Mtg Assn Fnma
1234 6th St 90401 Pr Revello Llc
1445 6th St 90401 Pr Capri Llc
1519 6th St 90401 Pr Amalfi Llc
1528 6th St 90401 Pr Verona Llc
1531 6th St 90401 Pr Anacapa Llc
1535 6th St 90401 Pr Venezia Llc
1540 6th St 90401 Pr Livorno Llc
614 7th St 90402 Herbert J Strickstein Law Corp
1411 7th St 90401 Pr Biella Llc
1514 7th St 90401 Robhana Inc
1530 7th St 90401 Pr San Remo Llc
1130 9th St # 8 90403 Pnc Bk National Assn
1437 10th St 90401 Us Bank National Association T
1750 10th St 90404 Bay Area Financial Corp
922 14th St # 106 90403 Us Bank Jpm Alt 2005-Alt2
1334 16th St 90404 Regents Of University/Ca
1847 16th St 90404 Jpmorgan Chase Bank Na
1037 18th St # 9 90403 Credit Suisse First 2004-8
928 19th St # 103 90403 Deutsche Bk Natl Trust 2006-Se
1923 19th St 90404 Bank Of New York
1131 20th St # 1 90403 Bac Hm Lns Svcng Lp
2249 20th St # 6 90405 Bac Hm Lns Svcng Lp
740 21st Pl 90402 Union Bk
310 22nd St 90402 Jpmorgan Chase Bank Na
1440 23rd St # 310 90404 Dsla Mortgage Loan Trust 2005-
2448 23rd St 90405 Structured Asset Trust 2006-4
1427 25th St # 2 90404 Wells Fargo Bk Na
1308 26th St 90404 New Century Trust 2006-2
1435 26th St # 12 90404 Wells Fargo Series 2007-2
2502 Arizona Ave # 2 90404 Household Fin Corp Of Ca
606 Broadway 90401 Pr Positano Llc
1527 Centinela Ave # A 90404 Federal Home Loan Mtg Corp
1950 Cloverfield Blvd # 5 90404 Federal Home Loan Mtg Corp
2010 Cloverfield Blvd 90404 Citigroup Mtg Ln Trust 2005-He
386 Entrada Dr 90402 Standard Home Lending Inc
1337 Grant St 90405 Aztec Finl
1526 Lincoln Blvd 90401 Safeway Inc
1613 Lincoln Blvd 90404 Wertz Realty Investments Llc
2218 Lincoln Blvd 90405 Cal-Asia Prop Dev Co Psp
1725 Main St 90401 State Of Ca
2910 Montana Ave # A 90403 Union Bk
2920 Neilson Way # 404 90405 Bell Hldgs Inc
2950 Neilson Way # 411 90405 Bac Hm Lns Svcng Lp
201 Ocean Ave # 508b 90402 Ncb Fsb
201 Ocean Ave # 705b 90402 Pan-American Realty Group Llc
201 Ocean Ave # 1705p 90402 Ncb Fsb
201 Ocean Ave # 1809p 90402 Ncb Fsb
116 1/2 Pacific St 90405 Aurora Ln Svcs Llc
1125 Pico Blvd # 102 90405 Federal Natl Mtg Assn Fnma
1125 Pico Blvd # 201 90405 Federal Natl Mtg Assn Fnma
309 E Rustic Rd 90402 Zarky Holdings Corp
323 San Vicente Blvd # 4 90402 Indymac Indx Trust 2005-Ar19
515 San Vicente Blvd # 515d 90402 Federal Natl Mtg Assn Fnma
620 Santa Monica Blvd 90401 Pr Sorrento Llc
2308 Schader Dr # 303 90404 Jp Morgan Chase Bk
1244 1/2 Stanford St 90404 Jpmorgan Chase Bank
1343 Sunset Ave 90405 Us Bank Na Series 2007-2
415 Upper Mesa Rd 90402 Indymac Venture Llc
1225 Washington Ave # 8 90403 Deutsche Bk Natl Trustust Co T

11   bubblesitter   2011 Feb 24, 6:27am  

vain says

Mark_LA, Redfin’s #’s are understated. I have a Realtor(R) tool called Realist. The area I’m looking in has about 50 per Redfin. Per county records, there’s about 200++
That’s about 400% difference. I’m thinking your area is understated by a large percentage as well.
I’d try to verify your area. But the Realist tool only limits me to 999 (I think that was the number) search results.

How much do you pay for it?

12   vain   2011 Feb 24, 7:15am  

bubblesitter says

How much do you pay for it?

It's not my account. It belongs to a broker in our immediate family. But I guess you have to be licensed under a broker, and pay about $35/month. It is a utility that comes with the San Mateo MLS account. Our broker didn't necessarily subscribe directly to Realist. It's another $50ish for the Supra Lockbox key. Also, maybe another $20 if you want to call yourself a Realtor(R) LOL

$35 bucks to be able to see the telephone number to the listing agent, and read the private remarks... What a deal. All the other tools that are built in the MLS account is pretty much useless. Realist is good but it's external.

13   mnsweeps   2011 Feb 24, 8:03am  

mark

Thanks for info...so in the search filter all I have to do is select HOME and FORECLOSED and the list which shows up in "purple" color is the REO inventory not on market, right ?

14   patb   2011 Feb 24, 9:01am  

i cant get it to work...

15   LAO   2011 Feb 24, 3:14pm  

Mark_LA says

South Pasadena has schools that were just as good, but more racially diversified. Now, they actually have a chance of getting into his alma mater, Berkeley, since the competition isn’t as stiff/robotic and the teaching is still top-notch. They also have a more normal typical American upbringing.

Yea, Im starting to think my future children would be better off going to an average school system and having a shot at being top of their class and valedictorian. Being a teenager is tough enough without that kind of competition.

16   Mark_LA   2011 Feb 24, 4:31pm  

Los Angeles Renter says

Mark_LA says

South Pasadena has schools that were just as good, but more racially diversified. Now, they actually have a chance of getting into his alma mater, Berkeley, since the competition isn’t as stiff/robotic and the teaching is still top-notch. They also have a more normal typical American upbringing.

Yea, Im starting to think my future children would be better off going to an average school system and having a shot at being top of their class and valedictorian. Being a teenager is tough enough without that kind of competition.

It's a tough balancing act. You don't want your kids to be the Valedictorians at Compton High, get accepted to Berkeley, then drop out because they're not prepared for the curriculum.

17   LAO   2011 Feb 25, 2:09am  

Mark_LA says

It’s a tough balancing act. You don’t want your kids to be the Valedictorians at Compton High, get accepted to Berkeley, then drop out because they’re not prepared for the curriculum.

Yea thats the biggest problem ive had looking for housing in LA... Plenty of nice homes/condos in areas with great to average elememtary schools... But very few decent high schools. Its interesting looking at the demographics of bad school districts... For example theres great elementary schools in Studio City.. But the highschool is rated a 5/10 North Hollywood High... It looks like parents that live in Studio City pull all their kids out of the public school system by Sr High after getting a great elementary education at Carpenter Elementary.... The demographics of North Hollywood high are 70+% hispanic.. Maybr 10-15% caucasion. We dont have a child yet so maybe we can just look for the great elementary schools and plan on moving in 12-15 years to a better district.... Who knows maybe we will be able to afford private school.... Even though I'm against the idea.

Note: Don't mean to sound like I'm disparaging a school just because it's 70+% hispanic.. Just pointing out the curious difference in demographics... Let me give you an example.

Carpenter Elementary... (rated a 9/10 on greatschools.net i believe)- Demo: 74% White, 9.9% Hispanic, 4.5% Black, 10% Asian...

Walter Reed Middle School (6/10 rating) - Demo: 32% White, 52% Hispanic, 7% Black, 7% Asian.

North Hollywood High (5/10 rating) - Demo: 16% White, 70% Hispanic, 5% Black, 7% Asian

All the above schools are in the same district... It appears everyone in Studio City that is White pulls all their kids out of the public school system after 6th grade... and sends them to Private School....

18   Mark_LA   2011 Feb 25, 2:57am  

Los Angeles Renter says

North Hollywood High (5/10 rating) - Demo: 16% White, 70% Hispanic, 5% Black, 7% Asian

Keep in mind that there are usually 4-5 elementary schools that feed 1 high school, so that also accounts for the majority of the change in the demographics. The other elementary schools that feed North Hollywood high are probably the inverse racial profile to the Carpenter elementary.

You can bus your kids to a magnet as well, or if you work in a good school district, then it's usually possible to do an inter-district transfer.

In addition to the change in feeder schools, a combination of those 2 options above are what's happening at North Hollywood High. I don't think more than 20% of the White parents put their kids into private school. In this economy, many are going from private to public.

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