patrick.net

M8R-0dxnlp says

Already explained in Michael Hudson’s article. You did read it, didn’t you?

OK--I get it. You don't really understand. You just read something that seemed to confirm your beliefs and didn't bother to actually think about it. Because if you did, you might realize that you are wrong.

It's OK--being wrong isn't a big deal. Better to just admit it and move on...

sundarrajan.b says

Patrick - you’re right that the price of gold is near the historical high, but where is the dollar debt headed and what is the likelihood that there’ll be more quantitative easing?

Even if the dollar were to fall to zero, that doesn't mean that the purchasing power of gold will increase yet further. Even if it sold for a trillion dollars an ounce, if an ounce of gold still buys the same amount of food, you didn't actually win anything. Though the holder of dollars did lose in that case.

Anyway, I'm convinced that the dollar cannot rapidly go to zero, because devaluing the dollar means investors will demand higher interest rates. And higher interest rates would cause yet more debt to default, destroying dollars, and therefore increasing the value of the remaining dollars. I think Japan had this problem with the yen.

Of course the Fed can continue to devalue the dollar slowly, and I expect they will. They just don't want to spook the elephant in the room (interest rates) because a spooked elephant can cause a lot of damage.

MarkInSF says

theoakman says

We’ll always need it and the best kept secret is that we are running out of it.

We’re not running out of anything except easily exploitable energy. That’s mostly what mining is: using energy, in huge amounts, to find, extract, and purify raw resources. The smarts go into where and how to efficiently apply that energy for maximum gain, but the driving factor is energy. Given inexhaustible energy supplies, the supply of raw elements is inexhaustible. On the flip side: no exploitable energy source; no raw materials, and it doesn’t matter how smart you are. The days of discovering oil in you backyard in Texas are long gone, and so are the days of just sticking a straw in the sands of Saudi Arabia and oil gushing up.
theoakman says

Silver, while it is mined, is almost always in supply shortfall. The annual mining consistently falls short of meeting the demand deemed by the marketplace.

As far as I know, there is no such thing as “falls short of meeting the demand deemed by the marketplace” in the silver market. That only happens when some force like a government intervenes with price controls. Where are the price controls?
You seem a bit starry eyed by silver. Then again maybe I’m just kicking myself for selling for a small profit in Sept. before it really took off.

Maybe I should have worded it better? I dunno. Basically, at our current pace of consumption, we eventually plow through that above ground surplus of Silver that has existed forever. We are already 4/5 of the way there. At that point, we will still need just as much Silver, but mining operations, which will be the primary and nearly exclusive source of Silver, will fall short of meeting that demand. It's no different than peak oil. It's just that the supply/demand fundamentals have not materialized because, unlike oil, we've had a giant above ground stock pile of silver to pick at for the past 100 years. Once that is gone, there will be a supply squeeze.

Gold is useless as a trading currency. No one uses it as such. Go to a restaurant and pay your bill in gold, see how that works out. Give them a few flakes of gold and emphatically let them know at current values this will cover the bill exactly. Make sure you bring enough to cover say a $33.67 bill, make sure you've got enough lose gold to cover pennies and whatnot! See what they say. Keep doing this until you find a restaurant that will accept your gold. I'd like to see how that goes.

Dollars are based on the willingness of others to accept them. People won't accept gold, there is no way to prove it's value, it's purity, whether it's enough. No one has time to weigh small amounts of gold! We need dollar bills to keep our economy going. It doesn't really matter what the government does to the currency because it doesn't really effect us in our day to day lives, that is simply the truth of it. If our government prints off 3x the currency we simply won't notice it. We'll still value the currency here. Maybe other countries won't like it and will devalue it against their currencies, but that's pretty much what the government is aiming for anyways.

Now if no one trusted others, if there were solid alternatives and we needed to trade on a daily basis with other currencies it might be a problem, eg Zimbabwe.

SF ace says

There’s really no such thing as running out, it’s just a matter of cost. There’s no more silver that can be mined for 10, but there are plenty at 20 and even more at $30. It’s just the economic process. Of couse, no one in the right mind would mine the silver at 30 before the $10 ones are lifted out first.
Every drill that goes on the ground, there’s some sort of minerals that can be extracted of value. It’s really only a “gold mine” if the concentration is heavy enough to make economic sense, in which case, the Barricks and the RIO’s of the world will buy the land, invest in it and make that their next project.

Actually, there is, because Silver is a small byproduct from mining of base metals. Even in the face of rising prices of Silver, we won't be opening mines to get to it.

I woulda thought this thread would be littered with posts as a result of the pullback we are having in the metals. If Silver drops below $25, I'm a buyer.

theoakman says

I woulda thought this thread would be littered with posts as a result of the pullback we are having in the metals. If Silver drops below $25, I’m a buyer.

Same here - if premiums are too high for coin form, i'll just go with the generic bars. I'm having a hard time justifying $4-5 + over spot for an SAE.

Sold my gold coins about a month ago. Made some money. I'm happy.

I've never understood the gold and silver market. I guess it's worth whatever people will pay for it.

jvolstad says

Sold my gold coins about a month ago. Made some money. I’m happy.
I’ve never understood the gold and silver market. I guess it’s worth whatever people will pay for it.

Silver is a valuable industrial commodity. To write it off as "worth whatever people will pay for it" is pretty silly.

theoakman says

Silver is a valuable industrial commodity. To write it off as “worth whatever people will pay for it” is pretty silly.

Ultimately every commodity, industrial or otherwise, is worth whatever people will pay for it. So its the exact opposite of a pretty silly statement. Thanks, have a great day.

Jeremy says

theoakman says

Silver is a valuable industrial commodity. To write it off as “worth whatever people will pay for it” is pretty silly.

Ultimately every commodity, industrial or otherwise, is worth whatever people will pay for it. So its the exact opposite of a pretty silly statement. Thanks, have a great day.

Rofl, so, if that's your view, why even make such a statement if it applies to everything? The fact is, you were picking on gold and silver exclusively. The two metals are not equivalent and have entirely different market dynamics that will ultimately determine their price.

oakman,

with the drop to $26ish, and bounce back to $27, are you still holding for a lower number. I've got the itch to pick up a monster box of SAE's.

Last time I got this itch, I could pick one up for about $8k, but missed that gravy train. Now that they are running around $15k, the risk drastically increases.

I know the long term fundamentals haven't changed - but I always hesitate on silver when the price is over $20. I paid around $12-14 for most of what I have.

joshuatrio says

oakman,
with the drop to $26ish, and bounce back to $27, are you still holding for a lower number. I’ve got the itch to pick up a monster box of SAE’s.
Last time I got this itch, I could pick one up for about $8k, but missed that gravy train. Now that they are running around $15k, the risk drastically increases.
I know the long term fundamentals haven’t changed - but I always hesitate on silver when the price is over $20. I paid around $12-14 for most of what I have.

I picked up the lionshare of my stack from $11 to $19. Long term, I still believe Silver will hit $50. In the end, I don't see a discrepency between buying in at $27 and buying in at $25. It's small potatoes in the grand scheme of things. As far as Silver goes, I have all I need. I won't buy more unless we touch $25. The absolute lowest it will go would be $23 in my opinion. I wouldn't bet on that happening but we have seen bigger drops in the Silver market like in 2008 when we saw it drop from $22 to below $10.

theoakman says

joshuatrio says

oakman,

with the drop to $26ish, and bounce back to $27, are you still holding for a lower number. I’ve got the itch to pick up a monster box of SAE’s.

Last time I got this itch, I could pick one up for about $8k, but missed that gravy train. Now that they are running around $15k, the risk drastically increases.

I know the long term fundamentals haven’t changed - but I always hesitate on silver when the price is over $20. I paid around $12-14 for most of what I have.

I picked up the lionshare of my stack from $11 to $19. Long term, I still believe Silver will hit $50. In the end, I don’t see a discrepency between buying in at $27 and buying in at $25. It’s small potatoes in the grand scheme of things. As far as Silver goes, I have all I need. I won’t buy more unless we touch $25. The absolute lowest it will go would be $23 in my opinion. I wouldn’t bet on that happening but we have seen bigger drops in the Silver market like in 2008 when we saw it drop from $22 to below $10.

That's my concern, is another one of those crazy plummets in the silver market. I know you can't time everything, but you at least want to get the most for your money.

I may hang on in the $25 camp as well. Palladium I almost jumped into around the $400 range, and I kick myself for missing that boat too.

Just as I typed the last comment, silver pulled back into the $26 range - think you might be right.

Thanks again.

Here's one prominent economist calling for Gold $874 in 2011

"China's economy will not overtake the United States any time soon, because the Chinese housing bubble is about to blow, doing the same thing to them as it did to us;

dire warnings about $4 a gallon gasoline are moot as commodity prices will fall amid China's sudden slowdown;

gold, that harbinger that all is not right with paper money, will plunge from its current heights of more than $1,300 an ounce to — get this — $874 an ounce as China gets margin calls.
"
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/111966/gloomy-economic-guru-says-america-is-back;_ylt=AmsiO_ddMoVRUY2WstUO0C27YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTFhb2U4YmVxBHBvcwM3BHNlYwNzcGVjaWFsRmVhdHVyZXMEc2xrA2dsb29teWVjb25vbQ--?mod=bb-budgeting

jvolstad says

Sold my gold coins about a month ago. Made some money. I’m happy.
I’ve never understood the gold and silver market. I guess it’s worth whatever people will pay for it.

I am curious as to what other investment was so enticing that you gave up your US dollar risk hedge for it. Did you put your new investment choice through a screening process that's akin to the same analysis you put precious metals through?

I would suppose you bought equities in the US stock market. For the record, gold and silver kicked the stock market's ass last year, and will likely do it again. And again. You did factor that into your analysis, correct?

I would imagine you also factored in the headlines--
IMF calls for dollar alternative
http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/10/markets/dollar/index.htm

And these regular headlines overseas--
China buying gold at a discount
http://www.indiainfoline.com/Markets/News/China-buying-gold-bullion-at-a-discount/5069344126