patrick.net

Foreclosures to rise from 1.8M in 2010 to 2.1 in 2011.
More inventory headed your way.

Foreclosures rise in Q3 as fewer people get help
Foreclosures spike over summer as fewer people get help lowering mortgage payments

Banks have already sorted through most delinquent borrowers and decided whether to modify their mortgages, federal officials say.

In 2011...

People will stop saying 'two thousand'. It'll be "twenty-eleven".

We will start to see a return to quality goods purchases, with fewer and fewer disposable, cheap things. This is because of rising prices of chinese exports.

Mobile phones will fully displace dedicated music players and consumer-grade GPS units.

DVD and CD sales will more or less end.

A well loved celebrity will die.

A B-list celebrity will die, and everyone will act like they were the best at whatever they did.

A congress member will be involved in a sex scandal.

The notion of 'feature phone' will disappear, and we'll stop using the term 'smartphone'.

A major scientific discovery will be made, and people will widely misinterpret what it means.

Strong anti-chinese sentiments will roll through the country, largely originating from D.C.

Gasoline will return to the $4+ range.

Inflation will pick up, but USD -> Euro and USD -> Yen exchange rates won't change much. USD will decline vs CAD and AUD, and definitely against RMB.

Obama will make an off hand remark that the GOP will latch on to.

Sarah Palin will say something glaringly stupid that the democrats will latch onto.

Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrinch will all announce their candidacy for 2012.

Corporate profits will continue to soar, with Oil companies, tech companies, and banks leading the way.

Facebook, Zynga, and possibly Twitter will IPO, driving silicon valley housing wonks into a tizzy.

Political grandstanding will result in Julian Assange being tried for something, but he'll get off.

Stretch predictions:

Tablet computers and dedicated e-readers will become more widely used for reading than dead trees.

Unemployment will drop a full 2 percentage points.

Kevin I'm going to go out on a limb and agree with your bold prediction of 2pp drop in unemployment.

Actually this article nicely sums up what I feel is in store for 2011
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-28/housing-starts-seen-rising-to-three-year-high-with-belated-u-s-jobs-boost.html

toothfairy says

Kevin I’m going to go out on a limb and agree with your bold prediction of 2pp drop in unemployment.
Actually this article nicely sums up what I feel is in store for 2011

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-28/housing-starts-seen-rising-to-three-year-high-with-belated-u-s-jobs-boost.html

A lot of mumbling about nothing in that article.

2pp drop in UE? How? Because SOME of 1.4mil unemployed construction workers will maybe find a job? LOL. We have more than 40mil "boomerangs" in USA. Lots of them after some kind of college. They can't get professional jobs, because there are none in this country. (Do you think job will come back from oversees? Hey, it will take several generations of poverty in USA. Or do you think them in BRIC countries will need more managers from USA? Very unlikely.)

"Boomerangs" are constantly off and on some temporary jobs. They supply much of the UE stats. They are moving back to their parents over-sized houses en mass, and are saddled with incredible college loan debt. (11 times higher than it was 12 years ago). Does anyone seriously think these people will start buying new houses any time soon? In meantime millions of boomers will retire and whoever can will try to downsize.

In short, demographics are strongly against housing "recovery". If anything it may create some small niche demands.

you're talking about a long term secular trend which is pretty meaningless when talking about the cyclical economic recovery we're about to have in 2011.

toothfairy says

cyclical economic recovery we’re about to have in 2011

People talking 'cyclical' don't understand what's going on now.

If I may:

This:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CMDEBT

broke the 'cycle'.

For the past 2 years we've been using this:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FYGFDPUN

to keep the rubber side down, but it turns out the American people decided last month to see what will happen if we stop gummint spending our children's money now.

cyclical economic recovery my *ss.

toothfairy says

you’re talking about a long term secular trend which is pretty meaningless when talking about the cyclical economic recovery we’re about to have in 2011.

College debt is actually cyclical, of the same nature as housing bubble, and was partially caused by irresponsible policies of Bush.

However you missed my point. It was just about that article that presented tiny factors (tiny even compared with effects of long term secular trends we'll see during 2011) as something that can do a significant fix.

BTW, there is another factor that is likely to increase UE rate especially in CA. That's state and muni crisis. Even now it considerably affects UE rate. The thing is "seasonal" layoffs.

For example, many state and community colleges are reducing classes they offer. Often it works like this: in the past a college had the class offered in all four "semesters" - Fall, Winter, Spring, and Summer. Now they decide to cut on it and to offer it only in Fall and Spring. So, guess what teachers do? They file for unemployment in Winter and Summer.

Expect this kind of seasonal unemployment to spread much more in 2011 as muni financial crisis unfolds.

IMHO there is a good chance of price appreciation of 3-5% in really good school districts. But depends on how much the interest rates rise...

stock market will go through the roof (positive)

housing will crash even further (thats a positive too)

unemployment will grow (negative) - machines can replace many jobs, outsourcing is cheaper.

My biggest worry is government artificially keeping up certain industries afloat. Because once these bubbles burst it won't be fun. Healthcare bubble, education bubble, housing bubble... it will be interesting* times.

We are into 3rd year of a 10-15 year slump.

bubblesitter says

We are into 3rd year of a 10-15 year slump.

thing is, when does it end? That's the question Japan has taught me to ask.

We knocked the scuttles out of our economic ship by shifting our manufacturing to China. It's good for 80% of the population now, but totally screws 10%:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MANEMP

And as they get liquidated they're going to take people down with them.

The Y2K and dotcom jazz was a good round of reinvestment in tech, we certainly got a lot of useful capital goods and global technical leadership out of that investment.

The story since then though has been tech being bled overseas, too.

But if this chart can be believed:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/USINFO

tech is worse than retail! Maybe that's just desk support, dunno.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GFDEBTN

is an utter disaster, and we've got almost half the country belly-aching about government takeover of healthcare already (when what was actually passed was incredibly conservative and status-quo preserving).

Farmers, oil men, gold miners, health professionals, and conservative opinion personalities will be doing well this decade, but who else?

God forbid if we actually have to cut the $6.7T/yr of gov't spending rate we've got now. Each $100B we cut is putatively 1 million jobs directly lost, plus probably another 1M lost in second-order effects as communities lose their gummint jobs.

Total Nonfarm Payrolls: All Employees (PAYEMS) shows that THREE TRILLION of deficit spending over the past 2 years has managed to hold unemployment at the low levels of the previous recession.

If we pump another 3-4T of deficit spending into the economy over the next two years we'll probably continue to tread water. But that's not what the Republicans were sent to DC to do, LOL.

Wish I were several timezones away from this mess. Think I'll go to the beach tomorrow for the sunrise. Sunrise on the west coast is when the new year's hits Japan. Might as well get in the proper mood.

There is one bright spot I guess.

China's young adult population is going to fall 25% over the next 10 years. That will begin to reduce their consumption and raise their wages I'd bet. Not going to help 2011, LOL.

India however:

is scarier stuff. By 2050 there will be 100M people in every 5 year group age 0 to 59. Mind-boggling.

look at those numbers, and then go read my post .... see where water plays a role in hunger and population?? One of you stock market investor studs can make all of us on PatNet rich if you find the source!

naveen381 says

IMHO there is a good chance of price appreciation of 3-5% in really good school districts. But depends on how much the interest rates rise…

That chance hovers somewhere around 0.

I'm actually wiling to bet money on a 2 point drop in unemployment next year.

If I've learned anything over the last few years, it's that people grossly over estimate how bad things are going to be and how bad they already are.

Mr.Fantastic says

So people don’t grossly underestimate how bad things are?

Yep, they do. It's almost always one extreme or another. This isn't just with economics either.

Zlxr says

Kevin - I would say that all our Gov’t (Fed, State, Local) have been grossly overestimating how good things are.

Are you talking about what they actually believe, or what they say publicly?

They have an obligation to be optimistic in public. After all, "Consumer Confidence" is one of the biggest factors in the economy.

Man, Oh man, did anyone listen to the Porter Stansberry presentation? of CIRA Dec 16th
on www.endofamerica1.com I know seemly poor choice for a URL to get people to take seriously but it auto forwards you to a normal url, I think they might be keeping count.

I am UNSURE about it, so I did not to be seen as endorsing it whole heartily. but I found it at least interesting to say the least, I got the link from a podcast of Frank Curzio, I heard him make reference to him, as is only obvious as he works there. BUT Frank seems to disagree with at least the timing the Porter talks about in this about hour long website audio.

If you are open minded and like to explore things, as I then I would be very interested in what you think AFTER you listen to it. OK? (it fits in this heading as it is talking about 2011) so that is why I felt it was ok to post this here, IF anyone or enough of you don't like my doing so here, I will or Patrick can of course, retract this post. OK Then, in the mean time Happy New Year. Ok, I would enjoy hearing from anyone that listens to it, email me please, if you feel up to it.

E-man says

Existing home prices in the SF Bay Area as well as nation wide will DECLINE about 3%

Agreed that housing will have a slight drop. Will carry that further to say that the slow bleed off of what is left in the bubble will continue for some years beyond 2011. Many owners of higher tier homes have been holding off selling their homes in hopes of a reversal. At some point, movement will have to occur. The boomer population will bail out at some point. I see homes at the higher end going down 1-3% annually for the next three years....then no appreciation for quite some time. The idea of frequently trading homes is gone for the foreseeable future unless you are willing to eat that realtor fee, the closing costs and realize any lost equity.

Not sure I agree about the gold and silver sliding down. They SHOULD end down since they are inflating like a bubble (said by others previously on this blog). But, I think with the deficit continuing to grow & the debt ceiling raised this year....and with people like Beck and others hawking gold, it may get above $1500 this year. Also, it is obvious that the boomers are about to need Medicare in larger numbers. The current deficit could look small in comparison to 15 yrs from now. That kind of projection has got to be good for gold....unless I'm the only one holding that viewpoint.

Anyone take me up on the Stansberry Thing.

Cvoc13 says

Anyone take me up on the Stansberry Thing.

Man that is long - good thing I had some mindless work to do. Scary predictions - but in the end sounds like a 2AM infomercial. Buy gold, no wait better yet SILVER, oh wait there's more! Order my "Secrets to buying some shit that no one else knows about" for three easy payments of $99.99

Cvoc13 says

Anyone take me up on the Stansberry Thing.

I only made it though part of it. I think Cvoc13 solved the mystery: Stansberry is ApocalypseFuck.

EightBall says

Cvoc13 says

Anyone take me up on the Stansberry Thing.

Man that is long - good thing I had some mindless work to do. Scary predictions - but in the end sounds like a 2AM infomercial. Buy gold, no wait better yet SILVER, oh wait there’s more! Order my “Secrets to buying some shit that no one else knows about” for three easy payments of $99.99

Exactly. But one doesn't need to listen to his voice if one can read: http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1011PSIENDVD/WPSILC00/PR

As a matter of fact it has a lot of well known info, a lot of simple B.S. and much more of commercial.

The main thing: it's still unclear if the whole stuff is really inflationary. It may as well turn out deflationary. That's because huge debt repayments reduce money supply.

zombie apocalypse by year end.

You all know in your hearts its inevitable, all those movies simply CANNOT be complete fiction!

Thanks Guys, I am sorry I did not know about the TEXT link, as I was saying I was not too sure about it, although I watched Zuckerman he had a lot to say about the Debt.
to http://www.cnbc.com/id/40887670

Cvoc13 says

Anyone take me up on the Stansberry Thing.

well I'm listening and trying to figure out what he's about to sell me... it's gotta be gold.

PockyClipsNow says

zombie apocalypse by year end.
You all know in your hearts its inevitable, all those movies simply CANNOT be complete fiction!

The Walking Dead comes back on in October, so yeah!

I did do some more research, and while he is self serving (Stansberry), least us not forget Soros, and some MAJOR players are all setting up for a DOLLAR demise, so while he might be trying to profit in small terms (Stansberry)

I don't know folks, and I know I am far afield posting here on Patrick.net, so I will back it off, (Sorry Patrick, if you need to remove I understand) http://www.examiner.com/finance-examiner-in-national/george-soros-says-that-america-must-give-up-the-dollar-and-accept-world-currency
Check out what George said, and has moved his wealth in to position, don't forget Soros made his wealth with Currency when everyone thought he was well, wrong.. he wasn't then, and likely not now.

I am OPEN to debate on this subject guys and gals, I am not married to the idea, I am super interested and passionate about this stuff.

Cvoc13 says

I did do some more research, and while he is self serving (Stansberry), least us not forget Soros, and some MAJOR players are all setting up for a DOLLAR demise, so while he might be trying to profit in small terms (Stansberry)

Soros has been wrong on plenty of occasions. He's pretty much never made an accurate prediction about economic trends. He has gotten rich not by predicting economic changes, but by causing them. This worked really well for him in Thailand and really poorly in the UK.

A global currency in and of itself isn't a bad idea, but it wouldn't work with fiat money. There is simply no way to have a truly neutral "world reserve bank" with economies as diverse as exists today.

A non-fiat currency might work, but it's just about impossible to reconcile this with the need for electronic transactions and existing political tension between nations. You think the U.S. and China would ever agree on a uniform monetary policy?

In short, you can't really have a global currency without uniform economic policy, and you can't have uniform economic policy unless you have a unified global government.

The odds of a unified, stable, global government emerging that manages to remain competent and uncorrupted enough to avoid an endless civil war any time in the next 500 years is near zero.

The only real thing that might change that would be some massive scientific breakthroughs. Virtually free energy is one thing that could do it, since resource scarcity would go away. FTL travel and the discovery of other habitable planets would be the other, since you'd then just have planets taking on the role that countries occupy today.

Cvoc13 says

I am OPEN to debate on this subject guys and gals, I am not married to the idea, I am super interested and passionate about this stuff.

Hi Cvoc13. I just feel like Stansberry was really, really reaching in his examples of how the dollar is no longer reigning supreme. Duh, other nations see our debt load so danger exists. I, personally, think danger exists. But, Stansberry plays on fear. He is worse, in a way, than Glenn Beck because he can actually string a comprehensive argument together. Beck is so ADD...he can't finish a sentence without contradicting himself.

Here's my beef: Stansberry plays on that fear factor by plucking these totally isolated examples of situations where currency other than the dollar is catered to. He mentioned an art gallery in The Hamptons that accepted Euros. Hello! It's The Hamptons ---> they will cater to a European audience as well as rich New York socialites. That's just good business. Or, what about Stansberry's example that some random tourist "Mary Kelley" was just taken aback that she had to drag herself all the way to a bank or post office to exchange dollars for Euros. WTG Mary: you are a perfect example of a arrogant American. Really, how on earth those employees at the Anne Frank house can refuse to accept our dollars as admission...I mean, we Americans SAVED Europe. Gosh, ya mean we have to go out of our way to exchange our currency to yours?

Anyway. I thought it was hysteria...but delivered in a very cool, calm, collected package. I don't like the compromised position that America is in. But, someone like Stansberry (IMO) just operates to meet his self-serving needs (buy his version of the end of the world at $xx.xx). He worries others and adds to the problem rather than working on a solution.

It will be interesting to read others viewpoints.

Xenu is resurrected using advanced Genetics techniques.

A strong job market emerges for FEMA camps staff.

Peter P loses 10 pounds.

Cvoc13 says

I don’t know folks, and I know I am far afield posting here on Patrick.net, so I will back it off, (Sorry Patrick, if you need to remove I understand) http://www.examiner.com/finance-examiner-in-national/george-soros-says-that-america-must-give-up-the-dollar-and-accept-world-currency

Check out what George said, and has moved his wealth in to position, don’t forget Soros made his wealth with Currency when everyone thought he was well, wrong.. he wasn’t then, and likely not now.
I am OPEN to debate on this subject guys and gals, I am not married to the idea, I am super interested and passionate about this stuff.

It says: "Soros discusses the need for a managed decline of the dollar and a move towards a global currency."

There are two questions here:
1. Will it be a "managed decline" or a collapse, like what Stansberry tries to sell us.

2. Will it be a global currency with global central bank and the same banking system we have now going global or it will be replaced by a wide array of national/regional currencies and precious metals. If the second happens, it may be indeed good for American economy, since it will discourage irresponsible parasitic financing, while allowing American economy to equally compete and to use its still existing advantages.

About Soros. He is maybe a good financst, but he is a fanatic of globalization. He actually spent a lot of money on it, spent a lot of money on "nations building" in Eastern Europe. In all small economies he is involved with he tries to suppress their local strength and to make sure they import stuff whenever it's cheaper than producing. In many small countries it caused major damage to their local farming. When their tourism income collapsed during the crisis and transportation costs jumped it turned out it's better to produce locally, but the capacity was gone.

Ironically, his activities often cause sharp anti-globalization and even nationalist sentiments.
He invested huge amount of money in Hungary, which has now the worst economy in the Eastern Europe (maybe as the result of his activities there.) It also got the most nationalist government.
His activity in Latvia actually contributed to the crash of their economy.
His funding for mediocre education programs had damaged some of existing excelent ones in Russia. (he funded some sex education experiments there and Math competitions that were mostly about accumulated information unlike existing ones that required a lot of creativity.) This made him very unpopular among middle class there. His "anti-corruption" funding in Georgia (his funds pay large parts of income of the top level officials there to make them independent of local kickbacks) is unpopular with Georgian opposition
Similar thing with his funding of the "orange" revolution in Ukraine, etc.

The bottom line: dollar decline is probably inevitable, but globalization alas George Soros is not a solution and likely will fail.

artistsoul says

I thought it was hysteria…but delivered in a very cool, calm, collected package.

Exactly so. It's very similar to what many cults do.

Unwanted Dollar drop off station here.

Tired of that unsightly Cash?
Pissing it away doesn't help...
Loosing it on the stock Market? FORGET IT!
Just look how deflation just cuts right through that filthy money grime.
Got baked on hard to reach cash?
Look how Quantitative Easing dissolves it away instantly!
Is your unruly money keeping you up at night?

Send them off Ted's wayward home for unwanted Dollars. We care for all denominations, your dollars will rest in eternity by a babbling brook with chirping birds.

Come on Down, we can accommodate wheel barrows, to dump trucks.

Be sure to try some of our other products like Wealth Distribution, and Reverse Economicosis where hundreds of trillions are pumped out of the worlds poor through staple commodity manipulation and stored in one of our Jumbo Cash horde jumbo-tron thingies to never touch the hands of the poor again.
Works right under your nose.

The Original Bankster says

Xenu is resurrected using advanced Genetics techniques.
A strong job market emerges for FEMA camps staff.
Peter P loses 10 pounds.

almost a hiku type of thing. Peter P was a good resident of PatNet

I will either lose my house and end up (fill in the blank, cuz I sure in the hell don't know) or be able to retain it after ruining my once stellar credit score through the Making Home Affordable Program. Cheers!!

michaelsch says

EightBall says

Cvoc13 says

Anyone take me up on the Stansberry Thing.

Man that is long - good thing I had some mindless work to do. Scary predictions - but in the end sounds like a 2AM infomercial. Buy gold, no wait better yet SILVER, oh wait there’s more! Order my “Secrets to buying some shit that no one else knows about” for three easy payments of $99.99

Exactly. But one doesn’t need to listen to his voice if one can read: http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1011PSIENDVD/WPSILC00/PR

As a matter of fact it has a lot of well known info, a lot of simple B.S. and much more of commercial.

The main thing: it’s still unclear if the whole stuff is really inflationary. It may as well turn out deflationary. That’s because huge debt repayments reduce money supply.

First of all calling that piece of crap a VIDEO.. is laughable.. Why did he even bother making a video of text against a boring white background... It's an audiobook at best... His referencing of how much time and money it cost to make his "VIDEO" makes him a liar or at best deeply deluded. Whoever he paid to read that amateur script filled with grammatical errors was worth a $20 bucks at best.

todd5704 says

I will either lose my house and end up (fill in the blank, cuz I sure in the hell don’t know) or be able to retain it after ruining my once stellar credit score through the Making Home Affordable Program. Cheers!!

i'd choose ruin credit over lose house AND ruin credit.

More fear-monger news about solar flares that supposedly will knock out the major electrical power grids in 2012.

More dilutions of the US dollar and more manipulation of precious metal prices to keep Americans in US dollars. More bailouts of foreign banks and too-big-to-fail privately-owned institutions that have integrated with the US government, suporting a domestic fascist central banker oligarchy that already exists worldwide.

A 10% to 20% fall in residential real estate in the US, due to a new wave of option ARM resets and resulting foreclosures.

More manipulation of the US stock market to create the appearance of wealth and a strong US government regardless that the American standard of living is declining.

More market manipulation by the PPT and the BIS's Financial Stability Forum in advance preparation for a sudden collapse of the US dollar.

Some of these things will happen in 2011. All of them will happen in the next five to 10 years. The central bankers and the BIS do not share the timing of their activities, which makes it impossible to determine the timing of their non-televised agenda.

Good luck everyone!

Educational News Flash:

The Bank of International Settlements (BIS) is a corporation owned by the 169 central banks (including our Federal Reserve) worldwide, each of which is privately owned (many of them owned by the same individuals). There are only 195 countries in the world, which means that most governments of the world already have their interest rates and money supply managed by the same set of very wealthy and powerful private individuals.

Despite that all of these governments have the ability to create debt in their own currency at zero interest, they choose to use the central bankers for this service, at interest paid by taxpayers as profit to the central bankers. Some of this money ends up in supporting infrastructure, some of it is profit, and some of it goes to funding the communist world government agenda of these same bankers.

They already own and control the world's financial system. They can do whatever they want, you are their slave to some degree (a tiny battery in their large machine), and they will even brainwash you through their media to believe they do not exist and that they are not doing this to you. You may even go so far -- due to your long-term brainwashing -- as to attack those who tell you what is going on, which is a form of support and enablement for the central bankers and their agenda.

Okay, now that you are educated and aware, let this affect your predictions, perhaps making them more accurate and educated. The information I posted here is not up for "debate" by a collectivist and pre-programmed herd that may form an emotional opinion about the reality we live in, since it is based in very hard and very well-documented fact.

Yes, sometimes it happens that the individual is correct, when the herd is wrong. Safety cannot always be had in numbers.

In response to those quoting Soros about a US dollar collapse, and trusting Soros as a factual source, allow me to quickly reveal how manipulative the media is. You quote Soros because you have no one else to quote about a US dollar crash, who makes sense and has media prestige.

Soros co-owns the DTC, which is also known as Cede & Co. and is part of the US Federal Reserve (just one of the world's 169 integrated central banks). This makes Soros a central banker. Do you trust Bernanke? He is also a central banker, or at least employed by them.

Here is hard evidence that Soros already knows what is going on, but is not sharing it with you through the central banker-owned and controlled media...

http://socioecohistory.wordpress.com/2010/08/05/new-imf-strategy-document-charts-launch-of-%E2%80%9Cbancor%E2%80%9D-global-currency/

This is the IMF's own hard documentation of their plan to replace the US dollar with a new world reserve currency, called the Bancor. The Bancor is an idea dreamed up by John Milton Keynes, who is one of the two communists who created the World Bank. The World Bank and the IMF are the two financial arms of the United Nations.