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On Thee our hopes we fix


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2008 Mar 19, 2:54pm   16,399 views  119 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

Can the Federal Reserve save us from the inevitable? What needs to happen for the economy to avert a severe recession? What are the risks? What are the opportunities?

There is no doubt heroic attempts to rescue the market will be made. What will the side effects be? How can we best position ourselves?

Is divine intervention our only hope?

God save us all.

Peter P

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112   EBGuy   2008 Mar 20, 11:22am  

I take this to mean that they have added real cash to the system
For the week, you are probably right. It looks like they added $9.622 billion and M2 is up. Will be interesting to see if they sell off more Treauries next week... Also, check out Bloomberg as those guys do a pretty good job at summing up the statistical releases.

OO, likes like H.4.1 data goes back to 1996 at: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/
The sequence after Sept. 11 is interesting to look at and see where they injected funds. The float (from check clearing) went crazy for a week. Also looks like they did a lot of repos.

113   northernvirginiarenter   2008 Mar 20, 12:29pm  

OO @3:18 pm

Excellent stuff and interesting thoughts.

114   northernvirginiarenter   2008 Mar 20, 12:42pm  

We all know this, but front page of Washington Post treatment....

Inflation nailing the Poor hardest

Inflation Hits the Poor Hardest
No Income Group Is Untouched, but Staples Are Rising Fastest

Washington Post Staff Writers
Friday, March 21, 2008; Page A01

Inflation is walloping Americans with low and moderate incomes as the prices of staples have soared far faster than those of luxuries.

Expensive crude oil has translated into higher costs to heat a house or drive to work. The average middle-income household must spend $378 more per year on gasoline than it did in 2006 if it consumes the same amount, and an extra $38 on fuel oil.

"This is what's at the core of the middle-class squeeze," said Jared Bernstein, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank. "The idea that you can understand the kind of budget constraints that middle-class families face by looking at overall inflation is wrong. You have to look at the core items a middle-class family buys."

*snip*

Those different sources of weakness are affecting different groups of consumers. Poor and middle-income people are suffering the worst from inflation, middle- to upper-middle-income families are bearing the brunt of the softer real estate market, and the affluent are pinched the most by problems in financial markets.

"There's really no segment of consumers that are escaping the slowdown right now," said Scott Hoyt, director of consumer economics at Moody's Economy.com.

*snip*

"Everything is going up," said Rene Chavez, 72, of Wheaton, speaking Spanish and sitting in the food court at the Wheaton Mall. "I have a car but now I take the bus, even if it is cold . . . my money now has less value," he said. "I go into a store with $6 and, imagine it, it isn't worth anything."

"Everything has gone up, eggs, milk, everything is very high, and we don't have a remedy," he said. "We have to eat."

115   northernvirginiarenter   2008 Mar 20, 1:37pm  

My apologies in advance for all the articles just compelled to share. It’s interesting that this stuff is finally getting mainstreamed, at least to me.

Another front page item of the today’s Washington Post. It would be painful if it wasn't so entertaining.

Greenspans legacy. No longer the Maestro

116   Jimbo   2008 Mar 20, 3:44pm  

I think we have reached the end of the beginning, at least as far as the cyclical downturn in the economy goes. The Fed has promised to bail out any bank, so the credit markets are going to start to thaw. In the long run, this will be a disaster for the dollar, but HB always promised that he would throw money out of a helicopter, rather than risk another Great Depression.

Inflation will continue to grow and the dollar will not come out of the toilet. So yes, standards of living will drop, but most of us will keep our jobs, which is better than it usually is in a recession.

The stock market goes up from here, I am betting and gold goes down, as the "fear factor" evaporates. It will be years before the housing market recovers though.

117   Jimbo   2008 Mar 20, 4:04pm  

But sometimes I am not sure if everyone else on the thread is (a) ignoring the troll or (b) tacitly agreeing with the troll. Do you know what I mean?

I never feed the trolls.

118   SP   2008 Mar 20, 5:03pm  

# northernvirginiarenter Says:
Greenspans legacy. No longer the Maestro

He is now recognized as The Mastro. The biggest of the wankers.

119   Peter P   2008 Mar 21, 3:21am  

The stock market goes up from here, I am betting and gold goes down, as the “fear factor” evaporates.

Gold is going to be super volatile.

The fear factor will not be gone for long.

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