patrick.net

Troy says

The situation is highly analogous to the Japan experience. We got a bit ahead of ourselves economically, 2004-2007, and now the bill is due, with interest.

I remember japan in around 1990. Things were horrendersly expensive (They still are). I saw some young people cut their own hair because it is so expensive to have their hair cut. I remember there was a big bridge from Osaka to an island. If you want to cross that bridge with your car, you would have to pay $50. Music CD costed $30-40. Movie theater you would need $20 and so on. We're talking about 1990 in Japan !. How much was movie ticket in US around 1990 ? Around $5 ? Music CD maybe around $10 ?

Things were already insanely expensive back in Japan of 1990. Yet typical japanese salary was about half of US salary at the time as I recall. Japanese middle class people could hardly afford frequent visit to movie theaters. They occasionally bought CD's for their favorite singers but they would rent CD's from a Music CD rental places.

I have lived in US for 20 years now. Except movie/cable bills and recntly gas prices, I have been simply amazed by how low inflation there has been in US for the last 20 years (I mean compared to other developed nations).
I think it has been the privillege of US being #1 in the world and having a international reserve currency.

So, in terms of inflation scenario, I have a feeling that US will take very different road compared to Japan of 1990. Up until now, US consumer prices has been very very cheap considering people's income. I think there is huge room for consumer price increase in US, IMHO.

"No, they snap them up to live in them. I’m talking about genuine $900K homes like in Lafayette and Atherton, not $900k jokes that are now selling for $300k in San Bernardino."

True, people who make good money do not live in 90% of the places the general population do.

"The supply of legitimate upper class fortress area homes has barely moved. Lafayette, Moraga, and Orinda all have very strict open space regulations and a subdivision hasn’t been created in any of those towns for 30 years."

True, same amount of homes but more people in the mix.

"In 1980 Lafayette and Walnut Creek were middle class. Homes were (and sometimes still are) typical 1500 sq. ft. ranchers. Moraga and Orinda were upper middle class but home prices were still very reasonable."

True, high income people flocked to Lafayette and not Concord and things went their separate paths.

"The people who can afford $1 million to buy a home are expanding in number. They will very selectively displace middle class areas and keep home prices high. These are the fortress areas and they are very real."

True, employment rate for high earners are around 2-3% Stocks and equity at a two year high. There are more millionaires than ever, to a lesser extent, there are more 200K households than ever.

Agree, these places are bought as primary but invest in the 100-300K ones.

If there is a collapse of housing price, it does not seem to be happening in Silicon Valley except the bad neighborhood of San Jose. Please, someone, prove me wrong.

Nobody says

If there is a collapse of housing price, it does not seem to be happening in Silicon Valley except the bad neighborhood of San Jose. Please, someone, prove me wrong.

Lower interest rates are supporting home prices now.

Graph over past 2 years.

Here's a house I picked out at random:

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Sunnyvale/774-Starbush-Dr-94086/home/669347

Originally listed for $888k, going for the Chinese buyer LOL.

Now listed for $840k. 20% down 4.3% loan shows $3500/mo cash expense (+$400 lost interest), $2600/mo not counting principal repayment.

Doesn't seem out of line to me, really.

Now, should rates go back to 6.3%, the price should be $650 - $700k to meet those monthly expense numbers.

robertoaribas says

“and they all lived happily ever after.” isn’t that how fairytales are supposed to end? Or “Amen” usually that is how you end a prayer! As in a prayer the duck doesn’t get wiped out!

Yeah. He just ignored my point that there are plenty of distressed Multi million dollar homes available here in OC, whether you want to live or invest.

The median price of an Orange County home – or price at the midpoint of all sales – fell to $438,000 last month, housing tracker MDA DataQuick reported Tuesday.

That's the lowest since April and up just 0.3 of a percentage point (or $1,500) from the October 2009 median.
Meanwhile, sagging sales stretched into their fourth month, with 2,298 Orange County homes trading hands in October.
That's 9 percent fewer than in September and 17.9 percent below the October 2009 tally.
While sales typically drop from September to October, last month was the second-slowest for an October since DataQuick began tracking home sales in 1988. It also was nearly 36 percent below the average of around 3,600 housing deals in a typical October.

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/market-276243-sales-month.html?source=patrick.net#ArticleHeader

Since incomes have been flat (ish) for the past decade, median price is just a measure of what banks are willing to lend.

The bottom was and is 2009 and Case-Shiller will reflect it into 2011

Big words for an index is that is only 1-2% above its lows.

Troy says

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/market-276243-sales-month.html?source=patrick.net#ArticleHeader

"Things have slowed down and agents are starting to get worried," said Irvine top-producer Mac Mackenzie. "I think buyer confidence has been reduced, and people are having trouble getting (their loans) approved."

No problem with lending, once prices fall more inline with incomes.

Bay Area Home Sales Fall Sharply; Median Price Dips Below Last Year
November 18, 2010

http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2010/News/California/Bay-Area/RRBay101118.aspx

Last month the median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos combined in the Bay Area was $383,000, down 3.0 percent from $395,000 in September and down 1.8 percent from $390,000 in October 2009.

robertoaribas says

klarek, same poster who used to frequent zillow under the same name?

No, that's some other rude, realtor-hating "doomer" that I am unassociated with.

The zillow threads have given me a headache. I cannot stand the industry crapola they still spew.

You were the only agent on those forums that would not peddle that crap and actually spoke out against it. As I was trying to explain to our feathered pea-brained friend above, it was de facto realtor-speak to puff up real estate in general with "low rates, buyers market" non-sophistique and it still happens today.

Go look at the graph that accompanies the article. It shows a downward blip in a continuing upward trend following a deep, prolonged and consistent decline. Nowhere in the month old article does it say anything about "HOME PRICES COLLAPSING AGAIN." That is Patrick's subtle addition. More current information, which Patrick chooses not to mention, show a more positive picture. All this phony gloom and doom and wholesale slandering of everyone in the Real estate business except Patrick (who is pretending not to be in the real estate business) is for the sole purpose of selling Patrick's appraisal service. Of course if he scares enough people he will help cause a decline in prices to everyone else's detriment. That seems to concern Patrick not in the least.

Stephen Manion - Realtor, Broker

Mr.Fantastic says

realtor aka Bob Phillips. What are you doing here calling everyone a doom and gloom blogger? Shouldn’t you be busy selling houses?

No he is here looking for buyers. LOL!

realtor says

Go look at the graph that accompanies the article. It shows a downward blip in a continuing upward trend following a deep, prolonged and consistent decline. Nowhere in the month old article does it say anything about “HOME PRICES COLLAPSING AGAIN.” That is Patrick’s subtle addition. More current information, which Patrick chooses not to mention, show a more positive picture. All this phony gloom and doom and wholesale slandering of everyone in the Real estate business except Patrick (who is pretending not to be in the real estate business) is for the sole purpose of selling Patrick’s appraisal service. Of course if he scares enough people he will help cause a decline in prices to everyone else’s detriment. That seems to concern Patrick not in the least.
Stephen Manion - Realtor, Broker

Ok, I have added "Stephen Manion - Realtor, Broker" to my list of people never to do business with. Thank you very much. Are there any other Realtwhores that want to stand up and be counted?

realtor says

That is Patrick’s subtle addition.

No it's not. A reader of the site who goes by the name "HousingBoom" started this thread.

Yes, and you can do so because I always put my real name over my writings. You know, Patrick could probably have gotten a huge amount of business from the between one and two million Realtors out there, surely his biggest potential market, if he made his system accurate and became property licensed to do appraisals. But he has expended a very great deal of time effort and money trying to convince everyone that we are all crooks, liars, and incompetent. A disinformation campaign any modern political consultant would be proud of. How many "never do business with" lists do you suppose he is on. And do you expect us to be nicy nice when he unilaterally declared all out war on us. Who are the only competitors of his valuation business? We are. Coincidence? Surely you are not that naive.

Stephen Manion - Realtor, Broker

Sorry, I figured the Heading above everything to be separate from the posts. My mistake.

realtor says

You know, Patrick could probably have gotten a huge amount of business from the between one and two million Realtors out there, surely his biggest potential market

Well, it is a good thing he isn't a complete sellout, like most realtwhores.

But he has expended a very great deal of time effort and money trying to convince everyone that we are all crooks, liars, and incompetent.

Please don't take credit from your colleagues in the world's (second) oldest profession. It wasn't Patrick that convinced me - it was the dedicated douche-baggery of the realtwhores that I ran into that allowed me to form this opinion.

How many “never do business with” lists do you suppose he is on. And do you expect us to be nicy nice when he unilaterally declared all out war on us.
Stephen Manion - Realtor, Broker

Ah - so you are a bully too. Keep talking - I think you are doing a better job of smearing mud on yourself.

realtor says

Go look at the graph that accompanies the article. It shows a downward blip in a continuing upward trend following a deep, prolonged and consistent decline. Nowhere in the month old article does it say anything about “HOME PRICES COLLAPSING AGAIN.”

As it relates to the Bay Area.... its a long correction, as some call it a crash.

As for South Miami.. :) By all means its a better time to buy...

realtor says

Who are the only competitors of his valuation business? We are. Coincidence? Surely you are not that naive.

I was running the housing crash site for four years before I thought of making a business out of comparing rents to prices.

So my dislike of realtors goes back a long way, and the business is just something I came up with that seemed to be on topic and useful. I still can't pay my rent with the little money I make from the site. So it's just been a labor of love (or hate, as you wish) for the most part.

I had such consistently bad experiences with realtors that I don't think I can ever be convinced they are on the buyer's side. Their financial motive is to trap people in as much debt as possible. That's how they get paid. More debt = higher commission. No purchase = no commission. So the buyer's agent has the opposite financial interest from his client. A built-in conflict.

It's a lousy business because of the way it's structured. If realtors were hourly I'd have a lot more respect for them.

Dear Stevie,

REturds suck dirty butt.

Regards,
Wyle E Coyote - Genius

it is absurd that reWHORES get paid based on sales amount. Absurd.

Perhaps in regions of the country where prices didnt inflate or crash we may find more
honest realtors, but where we have (had) highly inflated prices well above the norm,
realtors look at every home as a commission making machine. The ends justify the means
to pinch that extra $10K in commission. $1M sales gets you $60K right off the top.
Of course realtors want to keep prices inflated.

But this is what happens when you have a shift toward 'service economy'.

It’s a lousy business because of the way it’s structured. If realtors were hourly I’d have a lot more respect for them.

Realtors are commissioned salespeople.
Not inherently better or worse than others (autodealers, travel agents, and nearly all store sales clerks whose pay is at least partly based on commission). No one bashing realtors here has ever had a commissioned sales job?
Restaurant waiters and barmen mostly live from tips, which really is a commission on sales. No one here worked that in college?
Further, income of any business owner (including a doctor or dentist) directly depends on how much he sells. No one in that category?
For SW and other engineers, govt. contractors are commonly paid "cost-plus", meaning your profit is a fixed percentage of cost - the more it costs the client, the more you get. Nobody been on a govt. contract, either?

Neither me nor anyone in my family is or have been a realtor. But I'm against bashing them simply for the fact that their income is in proportion to the sales volume.

Fisk says

No one bashing realtors here has ever had a commissioned sales job?

Steering somebody into a nicer pair of shoes than they originally wanted is a *bit* different from roping them into a suicide loan on an $600,000 property that was going to collapse to half that in two years.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubsd-tWYmZw

Troy says

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ubsd-tWYmZw

I had viewed that long time ago, of course. The only one actually seen "roping" here is the wife, any impropriety by Suzanne is merely surmised. This flick is rather an indictment of wives and warning about marrying with care or not at all than an indictment of realtors and warning about bying overpriced RE.

Do you think that wife's extortion has been limited to a house, and not involving cars, jewelry, furniture and what not?

Fisk says

any impropriety by Suzanne is merely surmised

"Suzanne researched this!"

I had such consistently bad experiences with realtors that I don’t think I can ever be convinced they are on the buyer’s side. Their financial motive is to trap people in as much debt as possible. ... If realtors were hourly I’d have a lot more respect for them.

My partner and I had lousy experiences with realtors when we were shopping for a house during the 1980's Housing Bubble. As it turned out the home we picked out was FSBO which made me nervous as I didn't have anyone to hold accountable for problems, which is why we hired a lawyer who specialized in such matters to be our agent in the transaction.

thomas.wong1986 says

But this is what happens when you have a shift toward ’service economy’.

Prostitution is also a 'service economy', so I guess for those with lesser morals, it is only a few steps down from there to become a used-house-salesman.

Fisk says

Realtors are commissioned salespeople. ...

That is not justification enough to succumb to full-blown conflict of interest where you work against the interest of the buyer whom you purport to represent.

There are very few commissioned sales jobs in which the salesperson claims to represent the buyer. The only ones I can think of are some people I know in the arms-brokerage business - however, the buyer's agent in that case actually does work for the buyer and is subject to intense oversight and significant (sometimes life-threatening) penalties if they play fast-and-loose with conflicts of interest.

More silly nonsense coming from the Duck. Agent relationships are disclosed, in writing, and are subject to the approval of the client. If an agent represents BOTH parties in a transaction, they must disclose their "Dual-Agent" status to both parties. Dual agency is subject to the approval of both parties. If a client refuses this disclosed relationship, they are, by law, allowed to engage another agent that would exclusively represent them in the transaction.

Duck, if you think your post has any merit, why not organize a class action suit on behalf of all these imaginary clients that were misrepresented? Your wifey might even be able to collect some big attorney fees, which would allow you to buy up more over priced real estate.

native94027 says

thomas.wong1986 says

But this is what happens when you have a shift toward ’service economy’.

Prostitution is also a ’service economy’, so I guess for those with lesser morals, it is only a few steps down from there to become a used-house-salesman.

humor worthy of recognition! excellant!

realtor says

You know, Patrick could probably have gotten a huge amount of business from the between one and two million Realtors out there, surely his biggest potential market, if he made his system accurate and became property licensed to do appraisals. But he has expended a very great deal of time effort and money trying to convince everyone that we are all crooks, liars, and incompetent. A disinformation campaign any modern political consultant would be proud of. How many “never do business with” lists do you suppose he is on. And do you expect us to be nicy nice when he unilaterally declared all out war on us. Who are the only competitors of his valuation business? We are. Coincidence? Surely you are not that naive.
Stephen Manion - Realtor, Broker

Maybe he could have made cash from realtors... But money's not everything. Especially for those who want the truth.

Disinformation campaign? Surely you don't remember "buy now or be priced out forever" or "now is the best time to buy" being shoved down our throats by the NAR do you? How many years have they been spewing this garbage?

It's rants like yours that give realtors a bad name. Get over yourself.

I had such consistently bad experiences with realtors that I don’t think I can ever be convinced they are on the buyer’s side. Their financial motive is to trap people in as much debt as possible. That’s how they get paid. More debt = higher commission. No purchase = no commission. So the buyer’s agent has the opposite financial interest from his client. A built-in conflict.

Patrick,

I've given this a lot of thought and while I probably don't have as much experience dealing with these vermin as you do, I don't think that price is ultimately what they are chasing. It is my understanding that sure, the buyer's agent will push buyers to make a higher offer. That's not because it will make them an extra 50 bucks, it's because the seller is more likely to accept the offer. Quick closing, dollar cost averaging, etc. On the flip side, the selling agent will usually try to convince their sucker client to take the low offers. Losing 50 bucks is acceptable if it means having to not work another 5 hours or wait 3 months for the house to sell.

Always
Be
Closing

They're pencil-pushing middle-men that function to make sales happen and happen quickly. All would rather their clients agree to buy or sell at the first opportunity than let it drag out for several months. Obviously the interests of their clients come after their own, and they are often conflicting.

Fisk says

No one bashing realtors here has ever had a commissioned sales job?

Is there a commissioned job other than realtor where an uneducated sleazeball can make $30k for doing ten hours worth of work? I'd say normal sales people and waiters actually EARN their money.

native94027 says

Prostitution is also a ’service economy’, so I guess for those with lesser morals, it is only a few steps down from there to become a used-house-salesman.

A few? More like a thousand. Let's face it, you're not forced to pay for sex. In NAR's cartel, you're practically forced to pay your kid's college tuition to these fuckers just to sell your house.

Not just prices collapsing.
Homes are collapsing too.
My siblbing's Socal-Fortress hillside fortress is showing signs of slippage during the wet weather we're having.
Maybe oughta get all the HELOC they can from it and walk away from it before it slides away from them.

realtor says

es, and you can do so because I always put my real name over my writings. You know, Patrick could probably have gotten a huge amount of business from the between one and two million Realtors out there, surely his biggest potential market, if he made his system accurate and became property licensed to do appraisals. But he has expended a very great deal of time effort and money trying to convince everyone that we are all crooks, liars, and incompetent. A disinformation campaign any modern political consultant would be proud of. How many “never do business with” lists do you suppose he is on. And do you expect us to be nicy nice when he unilaterally declared all out war on us. Who are the only competitors of his valuation business? We are. Coincidence? Surely you are not that naive.

Stephen Manion - Realtor, Broker

you know what's hilarious?

if patrick were to sell a $1M house, i have no doubt you'd be the first in line to kiss his ass to get that commission.

realtor says

Yes, and you can do so because I always put my real name over my writings. You know, Patrick could probably have gotten a huge amount of business from the between one and two million Realtors out there, surely his biggest potential market, if he made his system accurate and became property licensed to do appraisals. But he has expended a very great deal of time effort and money trying to convince everyone that we are all crooks, liars, and incompetent. A disinformation campaign any modern political consultant would be proud of. How many “never do business with” lists do you suppose he is on. And do you expect us to be nicy nice when he unilaterally declared all out war on us. Who are the only competitors of his valuation business? We are. Coincidence? Surely you are not that naive.
Stephen Manion - Realtor, Broker

This was not very convincing...I would suggest that it is better to not argue a point if you can't supply a halfway compelling perspective. I'm just trying to imagine Patrick as an appraiser ... PatricK: "well, judging by rents - this home is worth 200,000 ... doubt the bank will approve your 450k loan, sorry" Buyers Agent: "He's off his gourd! I know a truly professional appraiser ... he'll swing by tomorrow and get an appraisal for 450k so you can move into your new, cozy HOME!"

Oh sorry ... didn't see where you said "make his service accurate" - the whole point of his system is that it IS accurate from the buyers perspective - if you'll be financially better off by renting than you will by buying, the 'accurate' prices given by the agents and their appraisers (using recent sales ... circular logic in my mind) are TOO HIGH. Naturally, from the seller's perspective the 'right' price is as much as can be obtained. BTW I do computer repair work for realtors and loan brokers, who are often infected by viruses (and potentially liable if private financial information from their clients, stored on these infected PCs, is leaked to identify thieves) - I charge 400$ per hour, which by my estimate is an excellent price for what you get (price is based upon going rate for such services, only one data point so far (mine) but I'm sure it's accurate).

Very simple. At the end it is all about supply and demand (domestic demand, excluding foreign cash buyers).

Most factors pointing to lower demand:
1. High unemployment rate
2. Rising interest rate
3. Would-be move-up buyers trapped with negative equity
4. High inflation in non-housing items such as energy and food
5. Less sub prime lending; fewer people qualify for mortgage

Most factors pointing to more supply:
1. Retiring baby boomers who need to trade down
2. Foreclosures and short sales; shadow inventory

There is no bottom until supply meets demand. Home prices cannot go up until demand out grows supply, or people's real income after tax after non-housing necessities go up.