patrick.net

Nor does it mean every asshole is a real estate agent, but the opposite is true!

Speaking of Malibu, here's an interesting stat from CAR:
Median home price from April 04 to April 05:
Malibu: -32.1%
oh, and a few more..
Sausalito: -19.6%
Imperial Beach (SD): -17.9%

And, as we've heard by now, it's location, location, location!â„¢
Stats to ponder:
Tracy: +44.9%
Reedley (Fresno Co.) +68.8%
Rohnert Park +57.5%
Dixon: +40%
Folsom: +25.8%
Carmel: +42.2% (a location)
Bakersfield matches at +42.4%

Bakersfield is Prime!â„¢
Is it too late for me to buy in?

location, location, location

You mean dislocation?

This market has bubble written all over it.

Bakersfield is Prime!â„¢

Must build a mobile home there soon. Forget about Malibu.

http://www.car.org/index.php?id=MzUyNzE=

Yes, the CAR monthly report, and its accompanying absurdities, is out. But what I found most telling about the chart on the bottom is not the income gap (that is OLD news), but if I read correctly the median household income in the Bay Area is actually DOWN from last year??!!

but if I read correctly the median household income in the Bay Area is actually DOWN from last year??!!
Hmm...interesting. I wonder the cause--professionals relocating to more affordable cities? If not for family, we would.

At the end of a bubble wouldn’t rents decrease, due to the increase in properties going unsold and thus increase the number of available rental units?

It depends on the prevailing view of the market participants. If sellers think that the boom will resume, they will try to rent out the units to increase staying power.

However, if they think a downturn is imminent that they will try to sell. It is difficult to sell an occupied unit with negative cashflow if the expected appreciation is low or negative. As a result, potential sellers may not risk to rent out the units.

This is my theory. Feel free to criticize.

One thing I've noticed out here is that more short-term rentals are being placed on the market with the owners stating they are going to sell in 6 months. I have no way of knowing, but it sure seems like they are likely flippers who are holding their property for a few months with the intention of selling for profit. I wonder who'd rent the place. I wouldn't want to go through the hassle of moving knowing that I'm going to have to do it again in 6 months. And if you can't afford to hold the place for a few months without having to rent it, should you be buying it in the first place?

Another annoyance, on Craig's list there are all kinds of RENT TO OWN postings on the rental site. Johnny-come-lately's to the RE investment game I'm sure. Hard not to wish these guys go down in flames.

Oh c'mon Jack, everyone wants a mobile home in Bakersfield. Don't they?

But then again, Bakersfield has just as much sand as the Marina!

That's right. You can't put a price on those intangibles.

There's lots of stuff popping up out here that it's hard not to notice. Lots and lots of open houses, 'for sale by owner' signs and short term rentals. This market has peaked IMO.

Maybe they have even owned the place for a while, and are just trying to squeeze out the last bit of profit before they sell next spring.

Greed will lead to great fear.

Another annoyance, on Craig’s list there are all kinds of RENT TO OWN postings on the rental site.

All rent-to-owe tenants will leave in droves when prices fall. After all, rent-to-own is an option that may or may not be exercised.

What do you guys think of houses starting to be sold at auctions?

Auctions can increase market efficiency. Prices may not be so sticky this time around.

I guess that “intangible” argument will now follow me to my grave.

C'mon jack, it is just an intangible annoyance.

What do you guys think of houses starting to be sold at auctions? A distressed owner in LV decided to put her house on an auction, because sales don’t move, and nobody shows up.

Nobody showed up? Bummer. Is this a growing trend or something that is just starting to pop up?

Jack

Just poking a little fun at you. Actually the intangible argument has merit. I was just commenting that in Bakersfield the intangibles are not so evident. (if they even exist)

Hard to get into a bidding war if no shows up though. What do you think the reason for that is? Do you guys think that there is a general view that the market is going to go down VERY soon or that there is just more inventory availiable and no one see's the need to bid on a property now. Or a combination of factors I haven't even thought of?

bidding war if no one shows up though.

Jack

Better to be known for having an opinion than never expressing one and no one knowing who you are.

October seems historically violent.

October 1987 - "statistically impossible" stock market crash
October 1929 - crash to precede the Great Depression
October 1917 - revolution in Russia
October 1911 - revolution in China

many other cases...

What will happen in October 2005?

When Bakersfield gives back it’s 42% and Carmel doesn’t, we will see a great illustration of location, location, location.
Ok--I'll grant Carmel some holding power, hence my real location comment. However, I'd venture to say there's a great deal of speculation there as well. In the event of a panic, who says wealthier investors won't sell--even in Carmel? Aside for selling due to money issues, I'd want to get the most of my property too. And since many have attributed California's skyrocketing RE to be partially fueled by speculation, why can't the same hold true conversely? I'm not sure we can have it both ways.
Although I live in the magical land of Marin where a bubble won't burst, I'm going to remain highly skeptical.

Yuan

You bring up an interesting point. People always say the RE market moves slowly, and I think to a large degree investors count on that. But if interest rates start a more rapid than usual climb, we could see a faster than usual RE decline. Something to think about.

When good news is bad.

tinyurl.com/exjyg

Hard to get into a bidding war if no shows up though

This is where the RE agents are able to play with the figures.

In OZ the vendors are allowed one bid (called a vendor bid) and even if nobody shows, the vendor can put a high (just under reserve of course) bid in.
THEN when reported the property has been passed in at X price.
It makes the market still look OK.
BUT, what if (one person shown up) there was a low bid at 50%.......Once again the vendor bid can make the auction look reasonable even if the market has told the vendor otherwise.
You cannot trust the reported data unless someone actually buys.

In OZ, the start of price falls was preceded by a fall in the clearance rates of auctions. And did the clearance rates fall. Don't listen to the percentage clearance rates, (lies,lies,lies and statistics) look at the actually number of properties for auction (including ones being pulled from auction) and the number that actually sell at auction.

Yuan,

A couple weeks ago you posted something about Realtors/sellers in the BA adding in a new clause to sales contracts waiving the buyer's right to sue if housing prices fell. Well, yesterday I got an email from a reporter at Inman News interested in the source & getting more details.

Tried your email, but it got returned as undeliverable/invalid address. If you have any more info that you don't mind sharing, post it here & I'll forward it to him, or post again using a valid email address & I'll forward his msg to you.

Jack, et al:
Here's a working link to that chart: http://216.239.54.9/blogger/6511/1295/1600/MeanSalesPriceByYear.jpg

What's odd is these numbers don't track to those I found at the Marin County Assessor's site. In fact, they're quite different--any possible reasons? Perhaps the figures above don't include condo sales?

Well, I bungled it again--sorry.
You can view the chart at the Marin housing bubble site:
http://www.marinrealestatebubble.blogspot.com/

I’m sure there is some explaination as to why October is so volitile, but I don’t know what it is.

I hate to say this... but I am sure it is astrological.

Then Peter might finally host his bubble party!

Can we have a party anyway?

I feel that you guys are closer than many of my friends.

BTW...here's a link to the Marin article on housing prices.
http://www.marinij.com/marin/ci_2916496
From the article, it almost seems fatalism is driving housing prices...up and up!

Yuan,
Your yahoo address isn't working --retried it & got

A message that you sent could not be delivered to one or more of its
recipients. This is a permanent error. The following address(es) failed:
XXXXXXXXX@yahoo.com

Actual address censored for your protection :-). Maybe try another address? Anyway, no big deal --thanks.

Hey, Suds,

We're well past the 200-post mark. Is your 'new construction' thread ready to go? Just post here & Peter, SactoQt or I will create it for you.

@Dipanjan

It was a day of pretty broad declines, but there's definitely something afoot. The media never met a tragedy it didn't like, and today's is the housing bubble. Institutional investors are seeing the story gain traction in the media, and they're starting to shed. That's my guess. If I'm right, I'd expect that batch to gain back early next week, then have another day or two like the last couple.

As for myself, I'm just hoping that the bubble backlash holds of for a few more weeks so I can get my affairs in order. As opportunistic as selling at the peak might be, I'd rather do that than get stuck in the seller's winter.

PS: tinyurl is great, but it sucks that you never know where you're being linked to in advance. Why again does tinyurl work but other URLs don't?

@quesera,

PS: tinyurl is great, but it sucks that you never know where you’re being linked to in advance. Why again does tinyurl work but other URLs don’t?

When your comment gets blocked (“Your comment is awaiting moderation” message) it usually means you included a URL that the WordPress blog software is picking up as a “spam” address. Unfortunately, I don’t have the authority to manually override this –I believe only Patrick does.

Sometimes, I've even had this happen with TinyUrl addresses. That's why I always trim off the “http://” & “www”. This seems to “fool” the software into letting you post.

Suds hasn't come through with his thread topic yet, so I've posted a thread based on one of Peter P's old ideas: FuckedCounty.com

Trolls are getting really desperate lately...

Hey Bubblehead Forum,

Pacific Heights Tier 1

Unfortunately I'm not familiar with this compay.

Congratulations are in order for the business to be successful.

I do hope that the company is making money, because the bankers seem to have made alot.

BUT, the bankes do have some serious overheads.
Settlements with SEC and disgruntled investers etc.

We can go to open houses, jump around, and see (hear) how good (bad) the quality is. ;)

Suds Says:
Harm: I could not find any articles about new home construction quality in the Bay Area yet — I’ll keep looking, although if anyone else has news/views on it, we can use that to start a thread…

Np, Suds. Actually you don't need a truckload of statistics/articles to start a good thread (this thread ought to be proof of that). Just some good questions and some of your own observations. Post what you've got & that'll be good enough.