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The job market is currently doing fine in BA. The housing prices depend not just on the current job market, but also about people's perception of job security. In BA, I argue it heavily depends on stock market - which is not just proxy for economy to most, but is THE economy.
In stock market, it's "happy Days Are Here Again", till the next panic selling which can happen tomorrow when the market opens.
So, if the stock market crashes, or continues to have mini-crashes, it will seriously affect the psychology and hence the housing prices. Jobs may not be a leading indicator. Of course, without prospects of IPO, VC funding may dry up too, seriously affecting the job market.
Even without the suffering of economy/stock market, jobs can stagnate. And that has been my position for a while now. So while I don't see massive problems, but I don't see any pay rises on the horizon.
Another factor - maybe more important than jobs - is mortgage rates. I have been wrong on this, completely wrong, till now. Rates have stubbornly stayed low. So I am not going to predict when they will again be at 8%. But if it happens, then bye bye housing prices, even with a strong job market.
What industry are you in? What is the outlook for your niche? What are your employers doing? Don’t name any employers, just share general information about what the hiring trend is for late 2007 and beyond.
I work at a Fortune 500 tech company. The outlook for my niche is very bright. Hiring qualified software engineers is freakin' hard right now. A few of my friends in my and other companies have gotten fairly dramatic increases either via raises or by changing companies. (10%+)
Oh yeah, I'll also add that VCs are desperate to give out money. But I think we all noticed that from the Web 2.0 hoopla.
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It has often been said here that the only thing that will cause a drop in Bay Area housing prices is widespread job-losses.
Perversely, this is actually also used as a spurious justification not to hope for a drop in prices -
Proof by denial, as it were. Ignoring the completely asinine logic inherent in that line of argument...
I would like to discuss what you think are the prospects of the job market here.
What industry are you in? What is the outlook for your niche? What are your employers doing? Don't name any employers, just share general information about what the hiring trend is for late 2007 and beyond.
My own expectation is that we will see a slowdown in the second half of 2007. Based on the financing I have seen, I also expect trouble in the web-2.0 startup scene by the end of the year, when some of them will fail to get additional funding and will either be acquired for i.p., or shut down in early '08. And this is even before factoring in macro issues like tech-spending and the larger economic picture.
What do you think?
SP
#housing