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What is considered subprime territory in the Bay Area?
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2007 Apr 9, 3:59am 17,990 views 244 comments
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Malcolm Says:
> You know what kids do for fun? We talked to this
> young girl in a store who told us the main pastime
> apart from getting high is rabbit whacking.
> A bunch of kids ride in a pickup truck with baseball
> bats, and one with a flashlight. When the see a
> rabbit the jump out, surround it, and whack it.
The kids on Kauai get high and go “pig stickingâ€â€¦ A bunch of kids go out with dogs who find a pig then the kids run up with a big knife and “stick itâ€â€¦
Just another couple reasons why parents pay so much to live in the Bay Area and even more to send their kids to SF and Peninsula High Schools like UHS and CSUS (where there is a good chance that packs of kids don’t run around stoned killing small animals)…
There's nothing wrong with killing an environmentally destructive pest. It's far more useful than playing Grand Theft Auto.
Ms. Lisa Says:
> The story of how a Bad Appraiser makes a
> Good Appraiser look stupid:
It is really a story about how a Bad Appraiser will help a Realtor and Mortgage Broker get paid.
> Immediately suspicious when an appraiser is
> said to “know the areaâ€,
Come on, all appraisers “know the area†it’s not like they typically fly them in from India…
> Of course I showed this to the appraiser friend,
> who pulls out the comps that are on the exact
> same street, closer in square footage, and similar
> in condition. Those range from $775K to $790K.
Residential appraisal is a big joke today since they only look at “what comps sell for†so if three crack smoking idiots buy condos in your complex with neg am IO loans for $250K more than you paid the “value†of all the condos goes up by $250K (the actual appraisers are even a bigger joke since most will do anything to get some of the shrinking business)…
Ms. Lisa,
Sad, truly sad. The difference in commission would be what, 3 grand? Not that it's totally insignificant but you have to suspect that this "dog and pony show" is done more to create the impression in buyer's minds that there really ARE multiple bid situations=hot market! Thanks for sharing that revealing story.
We had a septic system for about 10 years. I had to replace a section of drain pipe (in January) and was not having any fun. However the total cost was about 50 bucks and I had the tank pumped out twice to the tune of $150 each time. So the total cost (after original system was installed) was about $3 a month.
However if you have septic, chances are you're on a well also. Those can be major dollars! In truth the costs for a well/septic sys. are about the same as city sewer/city water. (That's how they know they can keep raising the fees!) I'd have to say our well water was better tasting but by the end of summer you couldn't do a load of clothes, shower, cook and flush all at the same time. Again, a wash.
kurt,
Can we do that in an environmentally sensitive way?
(I don't want to eradicate all deer, or all rabbits, or all humans, just restore the environment to some sustainable balance?
Malcolm
2007 Apr 10, 1:49am
The kids on Kauai get high and go “pig stickingâ€â€¦ A bunch of kids go out with dogs who find a pig then the kids run up with a big knife and “stick itâ€â€¦
I think that is a little different because that is somewhat of a tradition, and the pig is a feast. At least there everyone surfs. There is a lot of idleness but that is a cultural judgement. I actually love the Polynesian culture. Maui is a great place. NM on the other hand has no such culture, just for fun I asked this girl if she had ever ice skated, skiied snow or ice the answer being no to everything someone in CA would take for granted. Wabbit whackin' no that's a new one for me, maybe she thought I was deprived for not having ever done that.
SP -
Its rocky at best! A year ago everyone was praising AMD, but today AMD is going into restructuring (Layoffs, office closures). Already happened to HP, Seagate, Intel and spreading with the downturn. No! 2007 to 2008 will not be that bright. I expect earnings for Q1 to be lower.
astrid,
It's not that humans can't be more responsible. We certainly can! It's just that when you're at the top of the food chain you get to determine which species are "pesky".
@astrid,
Well I'm certainly not! I'm by no means an environmentalist. I'm just stingy. My father once said we could run a mirror image of America just with what's wasted. I DO believe we can be more efficient and likely improvements will follow. :)
"Is this a case of the realtor creating in his buyers mind that this property is “hot†so he might want to overbid?"
In past years, no one would dare overbid. Even in SF Bay Area it was unheard of. All the old times I spoke to would never put offers over bid. Its all been madness over the past 8 years or so.
What people did in the past was negotiate and not capitulate., if the seller was asking 10 the offers are usually 8 or 9, and then negotiate if needed. I dont ever recall all this talk about multiple bidding. The population here doesnt warrent it. It only makes sense if you had the same 10 buyers all putting in offers for 10 homes. Each seller would say I have 10 offers each ( or 100 offers total). Extreme example but close to what has happened.
Malcom,
It's been awhile since I've read it but I'm pretty sure Margaret Mead's description of Polynesian Culture didn't invole getting whacked on "ice" before gutting a pig? I've long wanted to have a "way station" between the west coast and the Philippines but the only place "I" could afford to leave vacant most of the year would be on the "Big Island". I've been warned by locals and regular visitors alike that the drug/violence/vandalism/squatter problems are out of control.
How can a people be so uneducated that they can't see they are living in paradise? So ungrateful that 4 hours of your day aren't adjudicated toward snow removal and grid-lock commute that you have to get HIGH? What a waste.
Malcolm
2007 Apr 10, 2:10am
That could happen but buyers are only supposed to put one offer in at a time.
Malcolm
2007 Apr 10, 2:11am
That sort of multiplier effect is definitely a possibility and probably did happen. I know my gut has always told me that we were basically just selling houses back and forth just at increasing prices due to the frenzy.
Space_Ace,
Sometime back we had a great thread on the dead language of negotiating. Just by looking around it might as well be in the Dead Sea?
Malcolm
2007 Apr 10, 2:17am
DINO, I was of course referring to the relationship of the pig, and yes meth is a blight everywhere. I was referring more to the 60's surfer lifestyle of those who might surf all day smoke some pot hunt a pig and have a party.
I do have to say though that constant paradise gets old after awhile. That reminds me of one of my born again friends in high school who was a little stumped when I asked him, "wouldn't heaven get a little boring after awhile?"
Malcolm
2007 Apr 10, 2:18am
I would get stir crazy living in Hawaii. At a Luau someone asked me if I would ever move there, I replied, would you like to eat chocolate for dinner every day? Peter, you are excluded from this question.
Malcom,
Well... I was stationed in the Philippines for an awfully long time and never got bored with it. Then again, it's a 24/7 place and Manila actually makes Las Vegas look "boring". If you never get tired of fishing this is the place.
Most of life IS boring and most of us aren't on drugs.
Could life ever be really boring if you have a high speed internet connection and a postman?
I mean, the worst case scenario is that you buy a bunch of Linden$, date cartoon hookers and flip virtual real estate.
SP,
I bet the Other Place is pretty good by now. Somebody probably overthrew the old management, installed some air conditioners and built saunas to take advantage of the abundant geothermal energy.
Kind of like the new Las Vegas.
Malcolm
2007 Apr 10, 2:37am
I think I do it right. I have a plain simple house and I can just go explore those fun places when I want to. I like fishing also, in Cabo I caught a nice Mahi Mahi.
As long as they aren't bothering me, I don't care if people do drugs; meth and those other ones cause crime and decay, but some surfer smoking pot on a beach with his friends has absolutely no social impact on anyone.
Malcolm
2007 Apr 10, 2:38am
Some people could live on an island forever, I need a change of scenary.
Cambrian flip? Asking $764k - sales history:
11/30/2006: $646,000
03/03/2005: $660,000 -- Someone lost money on the '06 sale?
Malcolm
2007 Apr 10, 2:49am
Astrid, that is the other extreme. Idle consumption, the trademark of the baby boomers. People nowadays really do live like kings. I want that please send it to me, it is not even necessary to get out of bed. I think that is why most things that I have sold on Ebay go to someone in the Midwest.
Cambrian flip?
lunarpark,
I'd say based on the photos, most definitely! You have the low-end yet stainless steel appliances, crappy looking "travertine" marble kitchen tiles, fresh paint, no furniture, new bathroom mirrors but the same old toilet and sink. A tell-tale sign in the kitchen is the stove abutting the fridge. Now how do you suppose you can cook and wiggle your way around to get crap out of the fridge or freezer, when by opening the freezer door you block the stove?
"I have a plain and simple house"
Amen to that! Over the weekend I helped my daughter and son-in-law put up their new fence. They have a 1,600 s/f 60's ranch on a decent sized lot. Unlike the "high stakes" game of flipping and decorating upscale homes, the projects tend to be simple, effective and...fun!
My wife and I have not only ruled out any form of McAlbatross we've rediscovered the excitement of starting (and finishing) an entire project in just one weekend! My in-laws on the other hand are discovering just what a hassle undergound sprinklers can be. Uh, no thanks.
skibum,
You could tell the grout between the tiles hadn't fully hardened yet too! Good eye my man! Also please to note the the back deck is incorrectly done. While it does have more eye appeal to run planking the length of the deck it is structurally incorrect. Staggering the boards creates more stability and will last much longer without swaying and wandering.
(At least it takes your eye of the power lines in the backyard though)
Nice try flipmeister, you have fooled no one!
Nice try flipmeister, you have fooled no one!
Well, eventually some GF will take a hold of that flipped-out overpriced place and pour 50% of their gross income into the mortgage, so I don't feel for mr. flipmeister.
How can a people be so uneducated that they can’t see they are living in paradise? So ungrateful that 4 hours of your day aren’t adjudicated toward snow removal and grid-lock commute that you have to get HIGH? What a waste.
Whatever you "luxury" thing you are accustomed to having from birth just becomes an accepted part of the background scenery --i.e., nothing special. Island people may appreciate a good swim or surf now and then, but it's no big deal to them --kind of like gridlock, illegals and overpriced housing is to us :-) . Ditto for wealth. If you are born with it, you just take it for granted.
People do not appreciate the absence of problems they've never had in the first place, nor do they value luxuries they've always had (unless of course, they lose them). Just human nature I guess.
Here's a house in Willow Glen. Check out the kitchen, yee. Asking $619k. Sales history:
Sale History
04/26/2006: $582,600
08/02/2005: $645,000 - lost money on the '06 sale?
04/12/2002: $1,242,000 - has to be an error
Peter P
2007 Apr 10, 3:32am
They are European-style (exercise on expiration day only) cash-settled (no stocks change hands) options on the S&P 500 index.
The original SPX options are too large for many trades (each contract controls 145K worth of "stocks").
The new XSP options are 1/10th the size of SPX options.
Not investment advice.
Peter P,
The guys I know that trade the Mini's do so on "offshore" trading platforms where the leverage is HUGE! With like 5 grand you're trading 200k.
"gridlock, illegals and overpriced housing is to us"
HARM,
Remember, the only reason there are so many illegals in this country is because they are doing crimes Americans won't do themselves! :)
Here’s a house in Willow Glen. Check out the kitchen, yee. Asking $619k.
lunarpark,
Nice - trolling for flipper specials now, are you? Entertaining, nonetheless.
My comments: this is a subprime to Alt-A flip! They clearly added granite countertops to existing 1950-1960's style hardwood cabinets, the kind without rollers on the drawers (which I find a pain in the a$$ to use). I'm not even sure they replaced the hardware fixtures based on the pics. Is that tile or linoleum on the kitchen floors? They cheaped out to the point where they just extended the flooring from the kitchen into the livingroom!
New FP mantle, fresh paint on the exterior stucco, and a half-hearted staging job with the shower curtain, towels on the toilet, and non-descript paintings above the toilet round things out. To top it all off, check out the pic of the bathroom with the new granite counter - they didn't even finish the paint job around the window for the photo shoot!
Gotta get the place listed before the next mortgage payment is due! Gotta love it!
"Nice - trolling for flipper specials now, are you?"
Guilty as charged. :)
Another thing about this house - it's a "snout" house. There's a funny picture book/glossary for all things sprawl called "A Field Guide to Sprawl" that has some funny aerial pics and accompanying descriptions. A "snout" house is one where all you see from the front is the garage, so that it looks like a resting pig from above.
It also fails the "trick-or-treat" test of home design, where a kid (or most people for that matter) can't find the front door when visiting.
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Now that the subprime storm is making landfall, we should forecast the damages it is about the cause.
In the Bay Area, what is considered subprime?
Is a brand-new, 750K townhouse susceptible to this first wave of credit contraction? How about a 700K, circa 1950 spec house?
Or is subprime more defined in terms of location? Which county should be worried? Will the gentrification of East Palo Alto and East San Jose continue?
Peter P