patrick.net

I have not kept a graph. Just a feel from running saved searches.

I get the same feel. In my search set there is a lot of activity, but I think the total inventory is only declining slightly. Lots of new stuff is listing too. I think there's rising churn. Some people pulling their listings, others offering at "more reasonable" prices, and the regulars just sitting there.

I've mentioned a couple times I have an in at one of the larger exclusive agencies. This February blew out last Feb's in total sales volume. Of course, this might be because prices are coming down and volume is increasing. So far I hear March looks to blow the doors off of last March. Again, probably a volume not price factor. But it means people are buying the ~$2m+ homes.

We should definitely "celebrate" the spring bounce with beer! :)

It is true that a lot of people have been on the sideline. These people will just right into the market. It is going to take a while.

Can you site specific areas you’re seeing this in?

I am looking at the San Jose / Santa Clara / Sunnyvale / Mountain View area.

Peter, a drop in listed inventory might not indicate that people are buying. It might just mean that a lot of listings got yanked. I bet that California is going to see a major credit squeeze, considering that money suppliers have cut off the "creative" neg-am and IO loans for subprime and Alt-A.

On the other hand, I do have some bad news from the Fort Collins, CO front. Remember those $250K-600K downtown lofts that I am fond of mocking? In just the last month, it appears that the most desirable buildings have nearly sold out. I don't know who the heck is buying these units, but they are braver than I. But perhaps I might enjoy the luxurious lifestyle by renting up there for a while. We shall see. :)

I have the impression in hallway discussions that many people feel that the subprime thing is "out in the open", and thus can do no more damage to the economy or mortgages. The Dow is surging forward again, and that seems to give people confidence in the economy.

I have never really followed a dead cat bounce in real estate or the stock market. I do suspect that people who are exuberant at the moment could easily be deflated by another fall in the stock market or a spike in interest rates.

Are those school addicts going out in force? When do they have to close before being able to register for school?

Peter, a drop in listed inventory might not indicate that people are buying.

I understand. But a slight increase in buying activity on light inventory will lead to bidding wars and temporarily booming prices.

My numbers (using mlslistings.com) shows inventory in Santa Clara County is creeping up on a daily basis. Where are you getting your numbers?

However, "prime" areas like Mountain View and Saratoga seem pretty flat. I don't see actual declining inventory in any area that I am tracking.

My numbers (using mlslistings.com) shows inventory in Santa Clara County is creeping up on a daily basis. Where are you getting your numbers?

Probably because I concentrate on newer condos and townhouses. Strangely, prices are not higher than those of last year.

I don’t see actual declining inventory in any area that I am tracking.

Good to hear.

I lump everything together (condo/SFH). I agree that prices seem around the same as last year. The "bigger" inventory gains (where I only track SFH) seem to be in San Jose (Willow Glen/Rose Garden). Cupertino and Sunnyvale have almost exactly the same amount of inventory as they did at this time last year. Mtn. View has significantly lower inventory YOY.

Does anyone have information about RE agents refusing to take listings, if home isn't priced right?

Oh fuck yeah, housing is set for a steep run-up, there is a ton of pent up demand coupled with a robust manufacturing sector and ample googlebucks. Fuck just yesterday I bought something from Google, oh, wait a minute, come to think of it, I have never actually paid google anything. But the BA is just so gosh darn special, what with all that great scenery and weather. Oh wait a minute. Oh fuck it. It just goes up doesn't it?

BA is special. Especially ghetto.

BA is special, when my friends come visit, they always wondered why it is so dark everywhere. Here is a link I took from a RW, it lists the SFH around my area (Santa Clara), looks like some are still getting over asking and DOM is short for some houses. Maybe because we have more street lights than other areas. I tend to think it's mostly falling knives catchers.

http://isvr.net/usr/1014239373/CustomPages/rivermarkSFMarketUpdate.htm

Perhaps my searches have glitches then. Let's forget about this thread...

Perhaps my searches have glitches then. Let’s forget about this thread…

I dunno... my personal driving seems to indicate that levels aren't all that great

Listings are up, sales are up, prices are down just a tiny bit in Noe Valley.

Sales really have picked up. People have started pricing things at 20% less than last year, igniting bidding wars. Selling prices are down 5-10% from the peak a year and a half ago.

But sales were dead last year and have really picked up. I only closely follow the market here.

I sort of watch a few West of Twin Peak neighborhoods, but not closely enough to really offer an opinion of them.