patrick.net

Who are the buyers ? From my experience, people whose patience has run out are buying. They also see that they are not paying more than what the would have an year ago.

House are selling, but house prices are NOT increasing. Nor are buyers in any hurry. So depends on what you mean by spring bounce ? Uptick in sales or in price ?

BA market is like a stock priced for perfection. Just because a stock is overpriced doesn't mean it will fall. It can stall and trade in a range. Only when something changes the price starts moving lower. That can be increasing foreclosures, or rates or the economy slowing down.

The subprime problems have started at the right time for any spring bounce to remain very short, even if it happens.

Until it becomes common knowledge that buying a house is a bad idea, people will continue to buy. All they know is, their friends just bought a house and they don't have one or that their friend's house is bigger than theirs or something like that.

The low wage girl in my office was gushing on Friday because she and her boyfriend were approved for some enormous mortgage. She is buying, and I suppose others like her are buying.

Someone bought the condo across the hall from me back in November. They have yet to move in. Bizarre.

A touch off topic and off geography but how funny to live in a 4 season region and see a listing as "just listed" with pictures from last or previous summers!

http://tinyurl.com/26llxm

The subprime problems have started at the right time for any spring bounce to remain very short, even if it happens.

The average joe cannot link subprime problems to the housing market. As a result, the mortgage shakedown may not change the desire to buy homes. It takes a while for the effects to be felt and it takes a while for the prevailing view of the market to change.

A touch off topic and off geography but how funny to live in a 4 season region and see a listing as “just listed” with pictures from last or previous summers!

LOL! Perhaps it is "climate controlled" ?

A quote from the AOL real estate page:

"The smart money this year is on undervalued foreclosure properties that have been oversold due to jittery emotions in the real estate world."

This is refering to cities with high forclosure rates, such as Denver.

Incredible. So it is the "smart money" who are those "willing buyers."

This on LA, number 4 on the best buy list:

4. Los Angeles
Total Filings: 300 (2,700 pre-foreclosures)
Outlook: Housing has been a major component of the high cost of living, which makes 2007 a rare window of opportunity for homebuyers or investors.

Smart Money? Not likely. Just heard that one of the largest real estate typhoons put all his properties on sale.

Nigel,

Nice link to your blog; after all they aren't making any more land and there is certainly a shortage of housing! That is why rents are screaming higher!?! You're right, this time is different, it will be much more painful than previous downturns!

Paul

"However, it is clear from the defensive posture that the realtwhores are a little less confident this year. Four months without a commission can do that to one’s psyche, I suppose."

Since no sale equals no commission, do you think that this hunger may cause realtors to actually scream at the clients to "lower the price NOW!"

wtf,

I think Real Estate Typhoon was a freudian slip. I think it's a perfect name for the perfect storm that could take down the bloated real estate market in the Bay Area.

SP,

I do think that it is the Realtors' interest to start asking people to lower their expectations/prices. Would they rather get $0 from their share of an unsellable /Marina style 3/2' in Bernal Heights priced at $1,000,000 or the $10,000 that they'll get (after splitting/brokers etc.) of the same house at $500,000?

That half million extra isn't going to them, they'd rather take the bird in hand. The Freakanomics book had a good article about why Realtors (TM) sell their own houses for significantly more money than they sell other people's houses for. A quick sale, a quick commission, then on to the next.

On record, I must protest the use of the term "realtwhore", which I consider too degrading. It is not right to blame any one profession for the current situation.

Little link to a bit of the Freakanomics stuff. The guy is entertaining. The real estate agent article is under "Articles' and has a house next to it.

http://www.freakanomics.com/

FAB,

1800 Gough Street penthouse had ANOTHER open house again today. Honestly, that thing has been on and off the market for about four years.

On record, I must protest the use of the term “realtwhore”, which I consider too degrading. It is not right to blame any one profession for the current situation.

Could you say the same for Criminal Defense Lawyers?

This house is for sale for $7,750,000. It sold about 18 months ago for $10,875,000.

http://tinyurl.com/3cgt2a

Suds, welcome, but one thing, I live in $anta Barbara. hehehehehe

Dear Suds,

Thank you for sharing.

Please consider this: as you described it, your experience here is very limited in time, in geography, both on the continental scale, and also the the Santa Clara County microcism, in the sorts of people you come into contact with, in your life experiences in the USA.

Wisdom only comes with time and a diversity of experiences, which takes time. But you can learn through the diversity of others who share their points of view here.

But seriously, the term “realtwhore” is specific to a particular kind of real-estate agent - the sort who will say or do anything just so s/he can pocket the commission.

Which is all of them that are still in the business.

An agent with integrity who truly represents their client and uses his/her knowledge, expertise, contacts and experience to get the best possible deal for the client - that kind of agent is a professional.

Which is all of them who left the business because they couldn't compete with the Realtwhores.

SFWoman Says:

> SP, I do think that it is the Realtors’ interest to start
> asking people to lower their expectations/prices. Would
> they rather get $0 from their share of an unsellable /Marina
> style 3/2′ in Bernal Heights priced at $1,000,000 or the
> $10,000 that they’ll get (after splitting/brokers etc.)
> of the same house at $500,000?

The best Realtors can look in to the eye of a seller and tell them with absolute certainty that the market is tanking and convince them that if they don’t lower the price they will never sell and moments later look in to the eyes of a seller and tell them with absolute certainty that this house is sure to go up in value that if they don’t write an offer at this moment is will be sold to someone else in the next hour (this is one of the reasons that I left the world of investment brokerage)…

P.S. to Suds thanks for the info on your situation. Remember to always ask yourself where information is coming from since it is possible (as I learned as captain of the debate team) to find support almost anything (as many skilled real estate people do every day)…

P.P.S. I can’t speak for others on this BLOG, but my life will not be any different if you continue to rent or buy three investment homes in AZ…

SFWoman Says:

> This house (2863 Pacific Ave. in Pacific Heights) is for
> sale for $7,750,000. It sold about 18 months ago for
> $10,875,000.

I was going to ask if you heard the story on this place. Tax records show that the $10.875 Million sale recorded less than a year ago and I heard that the buyer was a Kellogg Guy and the CEO of a Biotech Firm.

A Pacific Union Realtor from the Presidio office (who has not had a sale in a while) said that the place was first listed for sale at just over $6 Million and she actually had a buyer that was interested but heard the place had multiple bids and was told it was under contract at $7.25 Million.

Many of the homes in that area are just about 100 years old and it is interesting that it took almost 90 years for one to first sell for over $3 Million and in recent years some have gone up by $3 Million in a single year and now it looks like we are seeing that (like other high beta assets) that they can also go down in value by $3 Million in a single year…

2006 was a transitional year, but I think 2006 allowed people’s income and confidence to catch up to housing prices.

Hilarious.