patrick.net

This thread is not targeted towards Jack, Fake P, or Face Reality. Their arguments are very reasonable and I always keep them in mind for balance.

70% or so of all people now think this market is normal and rational. It's all about following the herd.

Moooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!

The market is efficient.

HAHAHAHA

You know. I don't know why. I have no logic to base this one, just a feeling. But it seems people are starting to get nervous about this market. It's not so much *what* is being said, but *how*.

Me, I live on a comfortable 6 figure income. No huge debt. Have a great place to live in a very nice town. I feel no bitterness toward those who managed to time the market correctly, and I have a great many friends for whom I am very happy for. I am just concerned that the market fundamentals don't add up, and some people I like a great deal are taking on tremendous risk.

I could buy in, and if this market continues to be this irrational for substantially more time, I may have to. But until that time comes I am going to enjoy the freedom that comes with not being so overextended that I am only one misfortune away bankruptcy or foreclosure. I don't have a rich mommy or daddy to bail me out.

I think SactoQt is quite representative of us...

I am just concerned that the market fundamentals don’t add up, and some people I like a great deal are taking on tremendous risk.

This is exactly our philosophy.

I just think it's easy to get emotional when one's a$$ is on the line.

Jack, you're not even remotely in the same category as Marinara. You use actual arguments that have a factual basis behind them. We like you, we are willing to listen because you are not angry or hostile.

As a homeowner, WHO CARES IF ‘THE BUBBLE’ BURSTS??!!

If i saw my exact house, on the exact block sell for 10% less tomorrow, sure i’d feel bad, but that doesn’t mean i’m going to sell my house and commit suicide!

I totally agree here. Perhaps we have more in common? If one choose to, and can comfortably afford the payment for a long-term home, I do agree that buying is not necessarily a bad thing even now.

This blog is a lot more rational than most others and is certainly not just a bunch of bitter renters. :)

Housing is very sticky, and once the mania ends, people will focus on LIVING LIFE, than checking the MLS listings to see how much comps have gone up again.

Stickiness does not prevent crashes. It only means a lack of liquidity.

I personally do not believe in market efficiency or any form of market fundamentalism.

In just decades, we have seen Warren Buffett, George Soros, the 1987 crash, and the LTCM debacle. All are supposed to be very high sigma events.

The market may be chaotic or hard-to-predict but it is quite far from being efficient.

(I used to be a faithful believer of market efficiency. Now I think that even financial astrology has more merit.)

Marina, onpr, one thing is that it took a few transactions (< 5% turnover ?) to create this boom. It can take even fewer transactions to depress home values.

My advice to renters who want to buy is this: LOOK FOR PROPERTIES DURING THE SUMMER (NOW) or between Thanksgiving and New YEar’s (holiday, rain, rain, rain). This is the time of more motivated sellers. You will see more opportunites. You just have to be diligent.

Marina, thanks for your advice. We know that already. :)