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From time to time I've thought this blog approached group thinking. Mostly it manifests itself by attacks on pro-RE rookies, who immediately get characterized as trolls and perma-bulls and then rained on. Fuzzy Math on the last thread was kinda middle of the road compared to Confused Renter. The counter-points were valid, but the negative emotions displayed can easily be attributed to a bunch of JBRs.
Anyway, I believe there is a bubble (and a huge one in the Bay Area), but it's hard not to notice that many patrick.net posters have memorized the exact same argument. Which can be summarized with, "It's in the bag. The crash is guaranteed to be huge. The dollar will tank and we'll buy McMansions for dimes on the dollar. We're already picking through the rubble." And so forth. Such 'arguments' are really just an inversion of the realtor propganda. I've seen plenty of people take projected data and work themselves into a frenzy for one political party or the other... the group "psyche up" on a blog is no different.
The exceptions are Randy H and a few others who are actually able to provide a meaningful analysis based on real financial theory. I come here for the factual stuff and real anecdotes, but sometimes the rah rah is a bit much. I mean, if the bubble pop is so predictably in the bag, then I expect to see several millionaires come 2008/2009.
Just my two cents.
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In a previous thread, our friend FRIFY raised an excellent point:
While I don't fully agree that this blog is that boneheaded :-) I think it would be very interesting to discuss the impact that these economic variables will have on the housing crash.
Despite the title, this is NOT a discussion about whether we have group-think. And it is decidedly not a question of whether there was a bubble - that is patently obvious even to the trolls.
Instead, I would like us to take stock of the current economic and political situation and pick out key indicators ("sea changes", as Frify put it) that are game-changing and should necessitate a change in our bearish sentiment.
Have at it,
SP
#housing