patrick.net

When he characterizes SFWoman as 'tricky' or 'mocking' CR is experiencing classical projection, I believe.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection.

Well, perhaps this form will link?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection

OT, but it looks as tho interest rates here are going up a quarter percent on Tuesday. They're predicting a 5% drop in house prices as a direct result. (Cold comfort for many readers when the US Fed is considering lowering interest rates in the near future instead.) The reason for the hike is to attempt to head off inflation. (Can anyone do a blow by blow analysis of how this works? Prices are going up, so we punish everyone further with an interest rate hike.)

So much for 'it always goes up' at 10% every year. Some young couples, genuine buyers, have been taking out interest only loans just to get a place, praying for appreciation. This could trigger a further round of foreclosures. Not even counting the overcommitted specuvestors.

Are more MSM are climbing aboard? Yahoo Weekend has picked up a CNN Money piece on the downturn and its projected effects on Wall Street:

"...the mood of buiders is a terrific stock market bellweather: The correlation between current builder confidence and future stock market returns over the past ten years is downright unnerving."

More at:

http://biz-yahoo.com/weekend/ecslump_1.html

Builders, not buiders.

Definitely time for coffee. That link s/b

http://biz.yahoo.com/weekend/ecslump_1.html

Albertoshka Brooklynight Says:

> hi I read a lot here although do not post much mostly random
> Randy H your post is most uplifting to me. I am 24 now finished
> my bus/mngmt & fin degree got the paper in feb looked for a
> job poorly i guess didn’t find anything descent. went back to
> school brooklyn college cuny started taking economics for a
> 2nd one cause its not that many classes and i like it. i feel like
> such a loozer without a job/money/girl while most of my friends
> are sort of making it. they look at me like an idiot who went to
> school got a degree and got nothing to show for it …

This might sound harsh, but you need to get some new friends…

Most people end up just like their friends. I got lucky and ended up growing up around people who thought that only losers and idiots didn’t go to college. My life would probably be different if I grew up in Brooklyn, Rural Ohio, or the Double Rock Housing Project in Hunters Point…

Most companies only hire someone that sends in an unsolicited resume as a last resort and prefer to hire people that are recommended. Try to get involved with professional groups and/or political campaigns in your area and do some networking, you will be amazed how many doors open…

If you work hard now you won’t end up as a bitter stock broker with no investments or a bitter realtor who can’t buy a home like our friend ConfusedRenter…

ConfusedRenter, the AntiGeorge Says:
You guy do realize that SFW is secretly mocking you all right?

Even for a devious realtwhore like your wretched self, that is a new low. Do you actually think you have the credibility to turn members of this blog against one another?

SP

SP,

Thank you. Those are the exact words I was fumbling for. (Granted I was a little upset at the time). Actually I owe SFWoman an apology! Cornsfused Realt-Whore was making a feeble "attempt" to smear her! (Not that anyone here is dull enough to assume that he actually had).

"still "living it up" paycheck to paycheck"

Words of wisdom folks. Pearls, actually. Nuggets of knowledge.

God love you Doug H!

"The largest single criticism leveled at blogs, and increasingly at Bubble Blogs, is that all the resident “experts” and “pundits” are anonymous.
Anonymity breeds lack of accountability, and questions motives. Of course we aren’t all anonymous. Certainly Patrick, Ben and others aren’t. Some regular contributors and authors aren’t either... So I’m not so sure it truly makes a difference."
_____

Actually, I'm a semi-public figure, since I'm a Friday night talk radio host here in Phoenix.

Definitely not "anonymous."

Anony-mouse? Perhaps (squeek, squeek).

But anonymous? No way!

I apologize for my “hiatus”. What people like CR/Biff/a$$hat fail to realize is that there ARE people like SFWoman that actually have wealth OUTSIDE of their own freaking primary residence! People can we please put an end to this!

DinOr,

Anything CR says means nothing so there is no point in being upset about it. He doesn't back up anything with data and his arguments are outdated, and do not apply to todays market(if you want to call it a market). It's so easy to make him eat his own words that I find it fun and entertaining. I hope he sticks around for next spring when the panic really begins!

You guy do realize that SFW is secretly mocking you all right?

SFW was pointing out that she bought pre-bubble, acknowledges that we are in a bubble and knows she is safe because she didn't use the ATM. She also knows that people who bought during the bubble, and/or used the ATM are going to take a big hit. Just because someone owns property doesn't make them a bull on housing, nor does it make them an FB.

Michael Holliday,

Is it still a ghost town in Pheonix?

Michael Holliday,

Please join us on forsakencraft's "radio" show as well! The host is a lot of fun. Sometime back Randy H allowed each of us to introduce ourselves and discuss our qualifications. Not to get on a "soapbox" but I've been in the investment arena for most of my adulthood and I'd like to think I know a bubble when I see one.

What people like "Unbelievably Confused Realt-Whore" fail to realize is that the "front" for the debate has shifted from "is there or is there NOT a bubble" about 3 years ago! There have been several intermediate steps that have escaped him as well. Right now in most enlightened circles the debate has moved to how HARD are we going to crash and will it take the rest of us down with it?

Did you guys listen to last friday's forsakencraft radio show with Casey Serin? If not, it's archived here.

Oh! Your back again. Yeah, you're safe. :lol: :evil: :lol: :twisted: :lol:

CR,

I bought in 1989. What's your point? Sheesh. Look, 2005 is off the table. That's a given. In FL 2004 and portions of 2003 are underwater. When the first wave of ARM resets hits, 2004 will be off the table as well. That's just the first wave! Someone help me out here, how many TRILLIONS of $$$ are "in the bag" to reset in 2007?

Cheap money aside, what more than anything drove the bubble was the 250/500K exemption. Hands down, no question. Well, we're regreting that and behind the scenes the Fed and Sen. Banking Comm. (along with numerous other agencies) are quietly trying to to figure out how to un-fuck this thing without coming off as being "anti-home debtorship".

Get a clue dickhead.

CR/Confused Renter,

Do you have multiple personalities or is it that you think that we think you and CR are two different people?

Allah, have you seen my "family sized" can of Troll B' Gone? I saw it just the other day now I can't find the damn thing! Could ya' spot me some?

allah Says:

Michael Holliday,

Is it still a ghost town in Phoenix?
_____

I'm not sure if it's a "ghost town" but it's definitely getting worse. Some areas, like the suburb of Surprise, in the far west valley, are faring worse.

I was driving around Phoenix and Scottsdale yesterday just looking
at "volume" from a quick, visual perspective. This is what I saw: houses for sale everywhere! And at full-looking prices, even with the 10-15% drop.

I'm afraid this is just the beginning, since prices are still very high considering median income levels and other economic fundamentals, which suck.

I laugh at the overpriced sh*tboxes. My prediction is that this thing is going to go down hard in the Phoenix and surrounding areas. I'm sure Tucson, 115 miles to the south, is going to get pummeled also.

The question is: What is the length of time and level to the bottom?
_____

DinOR Says:

Michael Holliday,

Please join us on forsakencraft’s “radio” show as well! The host is a lot of fun.
_____

Sounds like fun. I'll look it up. Is it a web-based show? When is it on?

Also, we can do a call-in, roundtable live discussion on my Phoenix radio show if you guys want. I can handle multiple phone lines. It's up to you.
Then I could send a CD of the show to Peter and he could upload/post it so everyone can hear it.

We could go over how Peter P founded the site & other blog stats. We could introduce the cast of characters and their backgrounds and how the whole housing market has affected them, etc.

As long as Surfer-x doesn't say F^%* the Boomers, or else my sound engineer would have to bleep it, he's free to go off on the realtwhore establishment.

Since my AM station also has a live webstream, the whole blog can listen/call in. It would be interesting to hear everyone's voices, opinions, etc.

I would kind of just try to moderate the whole thing. It's up to you.

Albertoshka Brooklynight,

If you're not a bot of some sort (your story sounds just a bit off...to a fellow "bot"), I recommend you get a Google toolbar and use the spellchecker function.

Otherwise, FAB is right, get better friends. Even if they don't immediately lead to jobs and a good network. You should be amongst relatively likeminded people most of the time, preferably people who are smarter and more successful than you are (hey, that's why I'm here to learn). That way, you can learn their habits and thinking process, and hopefully your chosen path through life won't seem so difficult.

I imagine there are many of us that are wondering the future of fixed mortgage rates.

"Banking Comm. (along with numerous other agencies) are quietly trying to to figure out how to un-fuck this thing without coming off as being “anti-home debtorship”." I suppose that low fixed-rate financing is one way to mitigate the staggering foreclosure rates we are bound to see.

I have one theory. Lenders will try to establish loan programs to give FB's a way out, rather than enter foreclosure, whenever possible, thus avoiding REO. I am curious how low, or high mortgage rates will go. During the Japan RE crash of the 80s and 90s, interest rates approached zero, a fact well illustrated in John Talbott's excellent book, "SELL NOW". Perhaps the US will follow a similar pattern of drastic rate reduction.

There are many who think the FED will have to drop rates to stimulate the economy as we enter a formidable recession in 2007, such as Nouriel Roubini. (His blog is excellent. Check it out.)

Please post your thoughts and comments, on how fixed rates are likely to adjust as the crash build momentum. Thanks.

I'm listening to the Casey Serin interview now at foresakencraft radio.

This is friggen' hilarious. Casey is too low-key for the situation. Funny!

Don't mean to laugh at his unfortunate circumstances, but his descriptions of being skinny, charging up credit cards for real estate education seminars, etc. is...well, comical.

Allah quotes Peter Schiff:
From an individual perspective, counting home equity as savings is analogous to a gambler counting his chips while still seated at the card table. Having a big stack in front of you means nothing if by the end of the game you’re busted.

Nice.
To take the analogy further, the gambler must also keep gambling until someone else is willing to take his seat. That's great if the odds at the table are getting better and other folks are standing in line, but not so good if the odds are getting worse and everybody wants to leave.

CG,

Sorry to disappoint, but FAB and Randy H originated that line of thinking. I wholeheartedly agree with them.

So there is common ground here! Now can we all just get along and be friends?

Michael,

Yeah, Casey is very skinny, he said he used to be like 150 lbs.....(used to be?), he would have made better use of the money on food.

Did you hear this from Roger Arnold(he is actually a mortgage broker) on his radio show on Oct 22 yet? He referred to Pheonix as a ghosttown and went on to say how bad it is going to get there! I like hearing negative stuff from people in the housing industry. :evil:

allah,

Casey was into juice fasting earlier this year, then he found out that RE speculation didn't go well with paying for organic fruits and vegetables juices.

CG,

I'm sure they don't want to date you either.

See? More things you agree on.

Casey was into juice fasting earlier this year, then he found out that RE speculation didn’t go well with paying for organic fruits and vegetables juices.

He said he couldn't afford the gym anymore either.

I spend way too much money on food and wine. $1200-1500 a month.

Well maybe if you cut out crack, you would shave $1k off of that!

Check this out, this is funny.

allah,

Adorable sheeple.

I'm always ready to cut through the bullshit.

Adorable sheeple.

Those are sheeple.

...but they didn't give them human legs.

astrid, I'm with ya on the whole 12th century landowner thing. That's why I think getting some farmland is a potentially sharp idea. If you could lease it out, effectively your real estate becomes a productive resource that other people pay you to use.

Plus it would be cool to sit on my porch, getting paid to watch farmers do real work on my land. Maybe I could even have horses. For anyone mistakenly lusting after a Mercedes, horses are much more effective at wooing pretty girls than $40K+ depreciating vehicles. :)

Can we talk something other than delicious smack? I really can't afford to be a crackwhore at this point in my life, so I'd appreciate steering the topic towards something more affordable...like juice fasting.

As I said not so long ago, people tend to use themselves as the reference point when judging others.

.....and is just about as true as everything else you say.

horses are much more effective at wooing pretty girls than $40K+ depreciating vehicles
They're also cheaper to feed, don't lose value when scratched the exhaust can be sold as fertilizer. :)

Brand,

Hehe. Somehow, I don't think ladies like SFWoman would ever pay attention to the likes of CR...he could drive a Bentley assembly line and she would still be able to detect his trollishness from a mile away.