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A bit off topic...but I assume many of you here saw the latest NARadvertisement making the rounds--"It's a great time to buy or sell a home."
One of the posters on a Boston message board made an amusing parody...enjoy.
http://boards.boston.com/n/pfx.aspx?msg=46.6400&nav=messages&webtag=bc-re_mainboard#a6400
Patrick
2006 Nov 4, 3:53am
Funny, there was no traffic change from the mention of patrick.net in the Chronicle. See http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html#hitlog
Either there were not so many readers of that article, or they didn't click through to the underlying web sites.
Patrick
"Many people feel ’stuck’ renting and can’t move forward. I am glad many of you do not feel this way." - sorry - can't do the italic thingie
People only feel this way because of irresponsible realtors telling people this is the way they should feel.
I expect many people now feel they are 'stuck' owning a huge mortgage they struggle to pay with no buyers in sight.....
Boston Transplant,
That parody is freaking hilarious! LOL! I made a feeble attempt to "lampoon" it over at Ben's and in light of this, my swipe at was amatuerish and boring (insert blushy face here). This Charles M guy is the bomb! Anyway we can get that up here permanently?
Cornfused Realt-whore (Biff?)
Just b/c Patrick declined to pay half a million for a house that's worth 2 mil (or whatever hyper-inflated value you assign) doesn't mean it was a mistake! That's the rough equivelant of saying "If my aunt had balls she would have been my uncle!" If only I bought MSFT at the IPO! Yada yada, who's living w/regret now? Like street cars, another opportunity is always just around the bend.
And how dare you smear SFWoman.
Can someone please ban this putz now? I've had enough.
Mrs. DinOR has money burning a hole in her pocket, could someone PLEASE pull the plug on this obnoxious idiot now? Please?
Re TNT, not sure who owns it now. There is a TNT Logistics and TNT Postal distinction also. A larger than life character known as (Sir) Peter Abeles ran the company in its growth phase, where it operated in 180 countries and was the 2nd largest logistics co in the world. All this starting from operating 2 trucks with a fellow hungarian immigrant. (much as the entire westfield group under frank lowy, a czech immigrant, started with a single delicatessen in outer suburban sydney)
funny thread - just read back...
Contrast that to DS, who often dumps lots of info, but if you read it you’ll pick out flaws here and there
no! hardly at all
i think CG has ADD->BPD at times... but is very lucid today ;)
i think animals can think and learn and are consciously present, h. sapiens simply has a more developed neo-cortex than most. it's a question more of degree than of kind. note that we've lost all other species of hominid for comparison, leaving only the great apes. organisms also have a sense of self and self-preservation.
Ahhh, the troll is back!! CR, that house that Patrick decided not to buy can fall quite a bit in price. It may never fall to $500k, but that $2M is not in the bag. As Peter Schiff will say:
The main reason American homeowners can access their home equity is that foreign savers are willing to lend them the money. Once foreigners come to their senses, mortgage credit will evaporate, and home equity will vanish along with it. Unlike legitimate savings that are permanent, provide real security, earn interest, and represent future purchasing power, home equity will prove ephemeral, disappearing as quickly as it appeared. From an individual perspective, counting home equity as savings is analogous to a gambler counting his chips while still seated at the card table. Having a big stack in front of you means nothing if by the end of the game you’re busted.
Mrs. DinOR has money burning a hole in her pocket, could someone PLEASE pull the plug on this obnoxious idiot now? Please?
No, don't do that, you'll ruin all the fun!
So question for SF Woman. Does your ranch generate any income for you (and what is a "ranchette")?
In frustration with the danger of falling house prices and tiny lots in town, I have been looking at land east of town on the plains. There is a 2.5 acre Ag tract up for sale for $170 with its own holding ponds and irrigation water. Anyone know if you can lease out the farmland for crops, and for how much? I like the idea of my real estate actually generating a profit (plus all the fresh produce I can eat).
Plus there aren't any zany HOA or zoning laws for Ag properties, meaning that I could stick a small cabin out there and live contentedly with views of mountains, ponds, horses and fields.
I do agree with ConfusedRenter on one point, though. Housing prices must be linked to employment. My area has lost a lot of white collar jobs in the last three years, and I think eventually that plus all the foreclosures will pressure prices downwards here.
Why are things so heavy in the future? Is there a problem with the earth's gravitational pull? Maybe we're just having a density problem with realtors? :) Density has brought us together!
Randy H
2006 Nov 4, 6:31am
CR,
4.4% unemployment rate reported on Friday folks. Doesn’t sound like armageddon is here.
Just one question for you, since I think you know the answer.
Did the markets react as if they believed those numbers?
Randy H
2006 Nov 4, 7:55am
CR
So you are who I think you are. How long did you spend on the ladder before getting off to pedal homes?
Allah,
I apologize for my "hiatus". What people like CR/Biff/a$$hat fail to realize is that there ARE people like SFWoman that actually have wealth OUTSIDE of their own freaking primary residence! People can we please put an end to this!
Just "owning" your own home hardly qualifies you as an "investor". Imagine being at a party and having to listen to some a$$hat tell you he's a RE investor and you find that the ONLY RE he "owns" is the house he lives in and pays on? Uh, I'd have to freshen my drink post haste! This is what we've sunk to. Just look at all the a$$clowns that are "stuck" w/2 mortgage payments b/c former said McAlbatross won't sell for sh1t!
I can point out endless stocks and trusts that have more than doubled since 2000! A few many times that. (Some I've had the good fortune to own for my clients as well as myself). Few of us can "own everything". In the end what it boils down to for established folks (those that aren't solely reliant on home price appreciation to fund their lifestyle) is what you DON'T own that makes the difference!
FAB, great observation regarding the "two year rule" and Cisco stock! Guess what? That's exactly where residential RE is heading. I don't know how to break it to Cornfused Realt-Whore but I have tracked this bubble since it's inception in 1997 (profited wildly) bailed and await the correction. This is the end result of relentless research and hard work. If there's something I HAVEN'T read regarding the bubble (and why now is a good time to buy) I'd love to see it.
No shills need apply.
DinOr,
Regarding that parody ad...the guy who wrote it said he would not mind if it was used elsewhere...so feel free...
(to CR),
I had no idea that "owning" a house is so important to validating my life!
Maybe CR doesn't really stand for "ConfusedRenter," rather, it's short for "Coldwell Realtor?"
Domus ergo sum, astrid. Domus ergo sum. If you have no house, you have no home, nor have life, love or even existence. In a sense, the McMansion is the ultimate affirmation of our humanity, our truest self enshrined in warm pastel colors and 5 piece eat-in bathrooms with granite countertops.
You ask if $1,000,000 is too much to ask for a dwelling. And I ask in return, is $1,000,000 too much to ask for your very soul? I think not, dear friends, I think not!
Unemployment is down, interest rates are at historically low levels, the sun is shining and it is a fantastic time to buy! Have a great weekend, everybody!
Brand,
Indeed! I had been very very foolish and CR has finally shaken me from my misperception.
I finally woke up to the reality that this is 12th century Europe and that without my own tiny fiefdom (granted by my lords FannieMae and FreddieMac), I will never amount to anything more than a serf...or perhaps, no more than a money lending Jew...
I'm totally going out tomorrow and putting in offers for every POS I can "afford". My immortal soul is at peril from my JBRness!
CR said:
"I regret not living it up more in my 20’s"
I didn't "live it up more" when I was in my 20's and now I'm in my early 50's and retired. My friends did just that and they are still "living it up" paycheck to paycheck. I chose to live modestly, save as much as I could, invest wisely, and work hard......outdated values.
If I followed your advice I'd be living it up and working till I'm 70....if I live that long.
Guess I screwed up so I'll slink off and regret being prudent.
So, after a few weeks of pretending to be a renter, CR the scum-faced shill outed itself as a Realtwhore - not just a common realtwhore, but a despicable, conniving one.
A used-home sales-weevil.
A house-pimp who had to pretend it was a renter. I recall even Heidi Fleiss didn't prevaricate this much about what kind of job she had.
SP
ConfusedRenter Says:
Patrick not buying the $500,000 Berkeley home was probably one of the biggest mistakes of his life.
Falling for your spectacularly self-serving bag of realtwhore bullshit and buying now would be an even bigger mistake.
In fact, buying anything from a slimebag sales-shitter like yourself would be a mistake.
SP
When he characterizes SFWoman as 'tricky' or 'mocking' CR is experiencing classical projection, I believe.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection.
OT, but it looks as tho interest rates here are going up a quarter percent on Tuesday. They're predicting a 5% drop in house prices as a direct result. (Cold comfort for many readers when the US Fed is considering lowering interest rates in the near future instead.) The reason for the hike is to attempt to head off inflation. (Can anyone do a blow by blow analysis of how this works? Prices are going up, so we punish everyone further with an interest rate hike.)
So much for 'it always goes up' at 10% every year. Some young couples, genuine buyers, have been taking out interest only loans just to get a place, praying for appreciation. This could trigger a further round of foreclosures. Not even counting the overcommitted specuvestors.
Are more MSM are climbing aboard? Yahoo Weekend has picked up a CNN Money piece on the downturn and its projected effects on Wall Street:
"...the mood of buiders is a terrific stock market bellweather: The correlation between current builder confidence and future stock market returns over the past ten years is downright unnerving."
More at:
Albertoshka Brooklynight Says:
> hi I read a lot here although do not post much mostly random
> Randy H your post is most uplifting to me. I am 24 now finished
> my bus/mngmt & fin degree got the paper in feb looked for a
> job poorly i guess didn’t find anything descent. went back to
> school brooklyn college cuny started taking economics for a
> 2nd one cause its not that many classes and i like it. i feel like
> such a loozer without a job/money/girl while most of my friends
> are sort of making it. they look at me like an idiot who went to
> school got a degree and got nothing to show for it …
This might sound harsh, but you need to get some new friends…
Most people end up just like their friends. I got lucky and ended up growing up around people who thought that only losers and idiots didn’t go to college. My life would probably be different if I grew up in Brooklyn, Rural Ohio, or the Double Rock Housing Project in Hunters Point…
Most companies only hire someone that sends in an unsolicited resume as a last resort and prefer to hire people that are recommended. Try to get involved with professional groups and/or political campaigns in your area and do some networking, you will be amazed how many doors open…
If you work hard now you won’t end up as a bitter stock broker with no investments or a bitter realtor who can’t buy a home like our friend ConfusedRenter…
ConfusedRenter, the AntiGeorge Says:
You guy do realize that SFW is secretly mocking you all right?
Even for a devious realtwhore like your wretched self, that is a new low. Do you actually think you have the credibility to turn members of this blog against one another?
SP
SP,
Thank you. Those are the exact words I was fumbling for. (Granted I was a little upset at the time). Actually I owe SFWoman an apology! Cornsfused Realt-Whore was making a feeble "attempt" to smear her! (Not that anyone here is dull enough to assume that he actually had).
"still "living it up" paycheck to paycheck"
Words of wisdom folks. Pearls, actually. Nuggets of knowledge.
God love you Doug H!
"The largest single criticism leveled at blogs, and increasingly at Bubble Blogs, is that all the resident “experts†and “pundits†are anonymous.
Anonymity breeds lack of accountability, and questions motives. Of course we aren’t all anonymous. Certainly Patrick, Ben and others aren’t. Some regular contributors and authors aren’t either... So I’m not so sure it truly makes a difference."
_____
Actually, I'm a semi-public figure, since I'm a Friday night talk radio host here in Phoenix.
Definitely not "anonymous."
Anony-mouse? Perhaps (squeek, squeek).
But anonymous? No way!
I apologize for my “hiatusâ€. What people like CR/Biff/a$$hat fail to realize is that there ARE people like SFWoman that actually have wealth OUTSIDE of their own freaking primary residence! People can we please put an end to this!
DinOr,
Anything CR says means nothing so there is no point in being upset about it. He doesn't back up anything with data and his arguments are outdated, and do not apply to todays market(if you want to call it a market). It's so easy to make him eat his own words that I find it fun and entertaining. I hope he sticks around for next spring when the panic really begins!
You guy do realize that SFW is secretly mocking you all right?
SFW was pointing out that she bought pre-bubble, acknowledges that we are in a bubble and knows she is safe because she didn't use the ATM. She also knows that people who bought during the bubble, and/or used the ATM are going to take a big hit. Just because someone owns property doesn't make them a bull on housing, nor does it make them an FB.
Michael Holliday,
Please join us on forsakencraft's "radio" show as well! The host is a lot of fun. Sometime back Randy H allowed each of us to introduce ourselves and discuss our qualifications. Not to get on a "soapbox" but I've been in the investment arena for most of my adulthood and I'd like to think I know a bubble when I see one.
What people like "Unbelievably Confused Realt-Whore" fail to realize is that the "front" for the debate has shifted from "is there or is there NOT a bubble" about 3 years ago! There have been several intermediate steps that have escaped him as well. Right now in most enlightened circles the debate has moved to how HARD are we going to crash and will it take the rest of us down with it?
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Patrick.net was featured in a SFGate.com article today. We all saw Ben Jones' blog featured in Business Week. According to author Carol Lloyd, NPR has been snooping around here for sources to interview (although that's yet to be verified, if you've been emailed or called by an NPR researcher/reporter, let us know).
What is the real impact of Bubble Blogs? Undeniably, blogs in general have quickly become established as a powerful alternate form of media. But blogs as a source of information are also often criticized for being raw, unedited, and often biased or outright inaccurate. It's even possible to find self-proclaimed internet curmudgeons criticizing blogs and bloggers in a blog.
Has this blog, and the other pioneers which took on the growing insanity of the real-estate bubble, really had a meaningful impact? I still maintain that blogs only affect the wider public sentiment on the margins. Most people do not receive their information through blogs. Those who still read consume simplified infografix color newspapers, the rest figure it out from commercials they forget to skip while watching something they Tivo'd. But, maybe affecting the margins is all that really matters. If we've helped to turn the few in the front of the herd, then the rest will follow.
Finally, what about anonymity? The largest single criticism leveled at blogs, and increasingly at Bubble Blogs, is that all the resident "experts" and "pundits" are anonymous. Anonymity breeds lack of accountability, and questions motives. Of course we aren't all anonymous. Certainly Patrick, Ben and others aren't. Some regular contributors and authors aren't either. But does it even really matter? I am not anonymous, yet I've been accused of being a real estate industry shill, despite the fact anyone can read my resume online. So I'm not so sure it truly makes a difference.
What do you think? Are we helping, hurting, or just fooling ourselves?
--
(Suggestion for thread by FormerAptBroker (FAB), who, while anonymous, is verifiable by this blog's admins just like most of our regular contributors).
--Randy H
#housing