patrick.net

I came very late to patrick.net, so will venture no opinion regarding the MSM blame game.

But I must say a word of thanks here. I learned in early August that high-end RE sales hit a wall Q206 in Sarasota and, in looking for similar conditions in other locales, followed a link to your discussion.

As Randy has broached the subject of anonmity, let me take the opportunity to confess being nobody's Mrs., and to return Mame Burnside to Patrick Dennis where she belongs. I intended a mild joke, but nobody twigged. I'm a musician, classically-trained, with an interest in chamber repertoire and the Renaissance - so no expertise in macroeconomics, Marxist-Leninist social engineering, or the enigma code.

This could be the beginning of a deflationary spiral.

"They are going to be very price aggressive. And it is going to have an effect on everyone. It is going to force other retailers to cut their prices, which in turn will squeeze their profit margins."

A lot of people say, the best time to buy real estate was yesterday, every day. I think there’s a lot of truth to it.

Not what these people think!

_snip_

With real-estate prices falling around the country and even pro-industry trade groups predicting further declines over the next year, buyers are backing away from deals in droves. At a semiannual housing forecast conference last week in Washington, D.C., economists reported that contract-cancellation rates for big builders were running around 40 percent - about twice as high as last year's levels. Anecdotally, real-estate professionals say they are seeing a similar dynamic in existing-home sales.

Even though it may mean losing a deposit that could run tens of thousands of dollars - deposits typically range from 1 percent to 5 percent of the purchase price - many buyers are deciding that is less onerous than the alternative. With median new-home prices already 9.7 percent below last year's levels, according to the U.S. Commerce Department, bailing out now may be less painful than committing to an expensive, and possibly depreciating, investment.

CR,

Maybe you should buy, I'm sure these people would be more than happy to sign their contracts over to you and let you keep their deposits as well! Take your time, there are plenty to choose from and more will soon be available!

My colleagues are getting calls from headhunters left and right with offers of 50-150% more.

...and don't be greedy, there are PLENTY to go around for your clients as well! :lol:

-clients
+colleagues

Now, remind me again what you do for work?

I can't wait to hear the answer to this!

Meanwhile, those who bought have moved forward in their lives and have spent their time doing other things.

Such as looking for bankruptcy attorney's.

I know it’s a very scary decision to purchase, but in any market, there are good opportunities. You just need to know where to look.

No, you just need to wait. We are just starting to come down the other side of the mountain.......a very big one!

Putting your life on hold is a mistake.

Huh....How is renting putting your life on hold? You can rent a house just the same. You really are a silly person, we are happy to have you here. :lol:

Meanwhile, they could have made 15% last year and started the next chapter in their life instead of always trying to time and short the market.

Anything anyone made last year is gone already, they just don't know it yet.

Life is short folks. The older you get, the bigger the percentage of your life that year is.

Yes. Life is short, another reason not to waste it on being a slave to an overpriced house.

… and CR yet again dodged the question (2 posts up) about whether
he is a real estate agent.

Well we all know the answer to that one, don't we. :lol:

CR,

Your marketing tactics are as weak as someone telling a kid he will not get the best candy on halloween if he doesn't have the best costume. I think it's time for a new career.

CR - cut the crap already, yes yesterday was a good day to buy a house and shares (although maybe not when the market was crashing) and a lottery ticket and everything else on hindsight.

But not everyone can afford to buy a house now or yesterday or the day before that or the 4 years before that in the Bay Area.

I'm so pleased that you are able to - so go busy yourself buying something now, the rest of us will take our time and buy when the prices return closer to the mean. I'm not going to throw away money just because we can.

You know what, just because someone rents, it doesn't mean they put their life on hold, contrary to your opinion.

You know what, just because someone rents, it doesn’t mean they put their life on hold, contrary to your opinion.

Exactly....and everyday I wait, I feel richer because prices are dropping....at the same time the debtors are shaking, worrying and are so stressed out that how could they possibly be enjoying their life? You see, as Patrick says, "it's our turn".

Although he would like to buy a house, he's not in any hurry. He guesses that the market may take a good five years to fully correct itself. His recommendation for fellow would-be buyers is to put their feet up. "Rent and watch and enjoy, 'cause now it's our turn."

I agree with you SFW. Being a realtor is a normal market is a good career and there are some decent, honest realtors out there, some that have been in business for decades. There are 500,000 realtors in CA and many of them will be gone next year. Judging by what CR has been saying, I would comfortably make a bet that he will be one of them.

Awe, come on back CR.....we're not done with you yet. :evil:

- is a
+in a

Well, it looks like the troll is gone. He must be busy with all those "potential clients" calling him up. Psychology is a beautiful thing, isn't it?

A bit off topic...but I assume many of you here saw the latest NARadvertisement making the rounds--"It's a great time to buy or sell a home."

One of the posters on a Boston message board made an amusing parody...enjoy.

http://boards.boston.com/n/pfx.aspx?msg=46.6400&nav=messages&webtag=bc-re_mainboard#a6400

Funny, there was no traffic change from the mention of patrick.net in the Chronicle. See http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html#hitlog

Either there were not so many readers of that article, or they didn't click through to the underlying web sites.

Patrick

"Many people feel ’stuck’ renting and can’t move forward. I am glad many of you do not feel this way." - sorry - can't do the italic thingie

People only feel this way because of irresponsible realtors telling people this is the way they should feel.

I expect many people now feel they are 'stuck' owning a huge mortgage they struggle to pay with no buyers in sight.....

I guess they can move forward, though, to foreclosure.

Boston Transplant,

That parody is freaking hilarious! LOL! I made a feeble attempt to "lampoon" it over at Ben's and in light of this, my swipe at was amatuerish and boring (insert blushy face here). This Charles M guy is the bomb! Anyway we can get that up here permanently?

Cornfused Realt-whore (Biff?)

Just b/c Patrick declined to pay half a million for a house that's worth 2 mil (or whatever hyper-inflated value you assign) doesn't mean it was a mistake! That's the rough equivelant of saying "If my aunt had balls she would have been my uncle!" If only I bought MSFT at the IPO! Yada yada, who's living w/regret now? Like street cars, another opportunity is always just around the bend.

And how dare you smear SFWoman.

Can someone please ban this putz now? I've had enough.

Mrs. DinOR has money burning a hole in her pocket, could someone PLEASE pull the plug on this obnoxious idiot now? Please?

I think CR is David Lereah....

Liareah, sorry, didn't spell check... :P

Re TNT, not sure who owns it now. There is a TNT Logistics and TNT Postal distinction also. A larger than life character known as (Sir) Peter Abeles ran the company in its growth phase, where it operated in 180 countries and was the 2nd largest logistics co in the world. All this starting from operating 2 trucks with a fellow hungarian immigrant. (much as the entire westfield group under frank lowy, a czech immigrant, started with a single delicatessen in outer suburban sydney)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Abeles

funny thread - just read back...

Contrast that to DS, who often dumps lots of info, but if you read it you’ll pick out flaws here and there

no! hardly at all

i think CG has ADD->BPD at times... but is very lucid today ;)

i think animals can think and learn and are consciously present, h. sapiens simply has a more developed neo-cortex than most. it's a question more of degree than of kind. note that we've lost all other species of hominid for comparison, leaving only the great apes. organisms also have a sense of self and self-preservation.

Ahhh, the troll is back!! CR, that house that Patrick decided not to buy can fall quite a bit in price. It may never fall to $500k, but that $2M is not in the bag. As Peter Schiff will say:

The main reason American homeowners can access their home equity is that foreign savers are willing to lend them the money. Once foreigners come to their senses, mortgage credit will evaporate, and home equity will vanish along with it. Unlike legitimate savings that are permanent, provide real security, earn interest, and represent future purchasing power, home equity will prove ephemeral, disappearing as quickly as it appeared. From an individual perspective, counting home equity as savings is analogous to a gambler counting his chips while still seated at the card table. Having a big stack in front of you means nothing if by the end of the game you’re busted.

Mrs. DinOR has money burning a hole in her pocket, could someone PLEASE pull the plug on this obnoxious idiot now? Please?

No, don't do that, you'll ruin all the fun!

So question for SF Woman. Does your ranch generate any income for you (and what is a "ranchette")?

In frustration with the danger of falling house prices and tiny lots in town, I have been looking at land east of town on the plains. There is a 2.5 acre Ag tract up for sale for $170 with its own holding ponds and irrigation water. Anyone know if you can lease out the farmland for crops, and for how much? I like the idea of my real estate actually generating a profit (plus all the fresh produce I can eat).

Plus there aren't any zany HOA or zoning laws for Ag properties, meaning that I could stick a small cabin out there and live contentedly with views of mountains, ponds, horses and fields.

I do agree with ConfusedRenter on one point, though. Housing prices must be linked to employment. My area has lost a lot of white collar jobs in the last three years, and I think eventually that plus all the foreclosures will pressure prices downwards here.

Why are things so heavy in the future? Is there a problem with the earth's gravitational pull? Maybe we're just having a density problem with realtors? :) Density has brought us together!

CR,

4.4% unemployment rate reported on Friday folks. Doesn’t sound like armageddon is here.

Just one question for you, since I think you know the answer.

Did the markets react as if they believed those numbers?

CR

So you are who I think you are. How long did you spend on the ladder before getting off to pedal homes?

Allah,

I apologize for my "hiatus". What people like CR/Biff/a$$hat fail to realize is that there ARE people like SFWoman that actually have wealth OUTSIDE of their own freaking primary residence! People can we please put an end to this!

Just "owning" your own home hardly qualifies you as an "investor". Imagine being at a party and having to listen to some a$$hat tell you he's a RE investor and you find that the ONLY RE he "owns" is the house he lives in and pays on? Uh, I'd have to freshen my drink post haste! This is what we've sunk to. Just look at all the a$$clowns that are "stuck" w/2 mortgage payments b/c former said McAlbatross won't sell for sh1t!

I can point out endless stocks and trusts that have more than doubled since 2000! A few many times that. (Some I've had the good fortune to own for my clients as well as myself). Few of us can "own everything". In the end what it boils down to for established folks (those that aren't solely reliant on home price appreciation to fund their lifestyle) is what you DON'T own that makes the difference!

FAB, great observation regarding the "two year rule" and Cisco stock! Guess what? That's exactly where residential RE is heading. I don't know how to break it to Cornfused Realt-Whore but I have tracked this bubble since it's inception in 1997 (profited wildly) bailed and await the correction. This is the end result of relentless research and hard work. If there's something I HAVEN'T read regarding the bubble (and why now is a good time to buy) I'd love to see it.

No shills need apply.

DinOr,

Regarding that parody ad...the guy who wrote it said he would not mind if it was used elsewhere...so feel free...

(to CR),

I had no idea that "owning" a house is so important to validating my life!

Maybe CR doesn't really stand for "ConfusedRenter," rather, it's short for "Coldwell Realtor?"

Domus ergo sum, astrid. Domus ergo sum. If you have no house, you have no home, nor have life, love or even existence. In a sense, the McMansion is the ultimate affirmation of our humanity, our truest self enshrined in warm pastel colors and 5 piece eat-in bathrooms with granite countertops.

You ask if $1,000,000 is too much to ask for a dwelling. And I ask in return, is $1,000,000 too much to ask for your very soul? I think not, dear friends, I think not!

Unemployment is down, interest rates are at historically low levels, the sun is shining and it is a fantastic time to buy! Have a great weekend, everybody!

Brand,

Indeed! I had been very very foolish and CR has finally shaken me from my misperception.

I finally woke up to the reality that this is 12th century Europe and that without my own tiny fiefdom (granted by my lords FannieMae and FreddieMac), I will never amount to anything more than a serf...or perhaps, no more than a money lending Jew...

I'm totally going out tomorrow and putting in offers for every POS I can "afford". My immortal soul is at peril from my JBRness!

CR said:
"I regret not living it up more in my 20’s"

I didn't "live it up more" when I was in my 20's and now I'm in my early 50's and retired. My friends did just that and they are still "living it up" paycheck to paycheck. I chose to live modestly, save as much as I could, invest wisely, and work hard......outdated values.

If I followed your advice I'd be living it up and working till I'm 70....if I live that long.

Guess I screwed up so I'll slink off and regret being prudent.

So, after a few weeks of pretending to be a renter, CR the scum-faced shill outed itself as a Realtwhore - not just a common realtwhore, but a despicable, conniving one.

A used-home sales-weevil.

A house-pimp who had to pretend it was a renter. I recall even Heidi Fleiss didn't prevaricate this much about what kind of job she had.

SP