patrick.net

Found this old article again on a spring clean:

Stay grounded: prices haven't hit the floor
January 20, 2005
Hold tight until the end of the decade before any real property upswing begins, writes Peter Martin.

[...]None of them lied about the state of the houses they were selling. But when we asked about the state of the market they began to babble.

Prices were just about to pick up. They could sense it. They were getting more inquiries. Some confided that they believed prices were already moving up. This was at a time when Sydney prices were relentlessly falling and when the agents themselves were coming back to us with progressively lower asking prices.

[...]Each year the executive of Australian Business Economists (ABE) presents its forecasts for the 12 months ahead. Not a single member of that committee expects an increase in overall house prices during the next 12 months. The committee's forecast is for a fall in prices of between 5 and 10 per cent. And it says there's no sign of a pick-up beyond that. There won't be a "meaningful" increase in prices until the end of the decade.

Professor Peter Abelson, from Macquarie University, has done anyone interested in house prices a huge favour by putting together reliable data for each Australian city going back to 1970.

When adjusted for inflation, Abelson's data points to four distinct house price booms in Australia, each separated by years of stagnant or falling prices. The first thing to note is that each of the first three booms was short. Beginning in 1971, 1979 and 1987, each lasted two to three years. The most recent boom is the exception. It lasted from 1996 to 2003. [T]he slumps between them have lasted even longer: some for the best part of a decade.

The second thing to note is that after each boom collapsed it took five to seven years for Sydney prices to crawl back to their previous real level. And Abelson believes the true story on prices is even grimmer than those figures suggest. That's because houses are getting bigger. New homes have typically 40 per cent more floor space than they did 20 years ago. And existing homes are continually being extended at the owners' expense.
[...]
Peter Martin is the economics correspondent for SBS television.

My nominal g/f sent an SMS to someone selling a 3 yo place for $580K (now reduced to $559K) -- 3 br, 3 bath townhouse with double garage -- and as a joke made an offer for $470K. They're very interested, apparently. (I've discovered for $3.95 it's possible to find out the most recent price on a property via an SMS text message. Other price reports cost about $60 -- I don't think there's a free information service operating in this city.)

Randy H Says:

> ConfusedRenter, Be warned.
> We’ve seen this same listing multiple times now.

We have seen this listing before (that as SF Woman points out is not in a prime part of the Marina). It looks like these buyers may have fallen off the last turnip truck to drive down Lombard in a while...

CR is correct that "it went for $110,000 over asking to $1.81!", but even more impressive is that is went for almost a million more than the $850K that it sold for on 9/22/05...

Top 10 mistakes Casey Made:
http://tinyurl.com/yc4hge

SFWoman et. al.

They have not changed the inflation calculations recently. Energy and food have always been part of the calculation, just not of the component they consider critical to consumer-inflation indexing. You can look up PCE Deflator, CPI, and all the other indices and deflators easily enough on the web if you want to know what's included and how it's computed.

There are plenty of valid criticisms of the Fed's inflation computation methods. In my opinion, one of them is not transparent frivolity.

SFWoman,

Sure, it happens everyday. In order to have the scam make sense though it's better to have a large "supporting cast". This way they can change roles as lender/appraiser/strawman etc. They are still looking for a couple (sheesh, it's always a couple) from the Atlanta area that walked away w/about 15 mil? I'm sure they were decent church goin' folk that we never saw drink nor heard cuss. Oh and for a goof!

http://bend.craigslist.org/rfs/224005690.html

The reason I thought Casey's friend up in Bend, OR was SO funny is his complete lack of understanding of what a "short sale" involves! These people are so used to winning, so used to showing up w/borrowed money, hold for a few months and then collect their profits they've never imagined there WAS a downside!

Dear Mr. Specuvestor in Bend, OR

When one goes "tango uniform" on one's debt obligations you may (with the lender's blessing) do a short sale. Ahem, however it is done to a private party NOT a short sale BACK to the bank!

What a dickhead! Arrrgh. Can you believe this stuff? Somebody, "somebody" loaned this DH 400k+ to buy an empty lot? An empty lot? 400k, can you believe this? Now..... "Son of Casey" claims he "just" sold an identical lot for 600k. Well, o.k why don't you just sell this one for 600k then? Oh....... The Bend market is falling apart now and when you say "just" evidently that means OCT 2005? DH.

SFWoman Says:

> Would it be possible to have someone make an
> offer that was $1 million more than market value
> of a house, get a friendly appraiser to have the
> numbers come in, get the loan, the seller get paid,
> and then the new owner walk away from the loan
> after a year or so?

It was this game took down many TX S&Ls when TX ranchers started to sell almost worthless ranch land to each other pushing the “values” higher and higher until they all just stopped making payments and let the banks take back the land that “secured” the loans.

As I read the USA Today article on Casey I noticed that he got “cash back” from almost every sale and I started thinking that maybe all the Sacramento Hummers I see when I drive up there were paid for with “cash back” from sales.

A while back I posted that I heard that most of the $500K + crappy homes in the Bayview and Hunters Point were being sold to recent immigrants by people that speak there language with no money down and interest only neg. am loans.

I was just thinking that “cash back” would make it even easier to “sell” the homes when you can take an immigrant making $8 an hour (reported as $173K a year on the “stated income” loan application) and put him in to a home for under $1,500 a month (less than his rent thanks to the magic of the neg.am.IO loan) AND give the guy $50K in cash (when he has never had more than $500 in the bank at one time).

Realtors always seem surprised when I agree with them after they say “it will be different this time” then go in to panic mode when I point out all the reasons why it will be worse then ever…

Allah said:
Obviously a first time buyer wouldn’t be buying this. A trade up buyer would only buy if he could get the bubble price for his house….which is not going to happen. Therefore all I can say is “lookout below”!

Allah, that post was supposed to be a joke. I was borrowing the Confused Realtor troll's style to post about overpriced homes that were NOT selling despite price reductions.

SP

FAB,

"Son of Casey" up in Bend, same boat. He had a gross profit of 160K on his one transaction (thanks to a GF from heaven) yet he can't make boo dick payment on his lot in the "prestigious" North Rim sub division!

In keeping w/tradition the guy uses his real name in his C/L reply? Dude. What happened to the 160k (which let me guess) you didn't hold anything back for taxes either?

Jake Oge aka/ "Son of Casey"!

Dude, your credit is ruined AND you are an Offer in Compromise in the making, say long about 2009 when your paycheck from Buy Rite Shoes gets attached!

SQT,

Beer prices appear to be stable if not declining. (Dodged a bullet on that one). Check out the "Bend" link above, it hysterical! The guy dug a half mil. hole and is now pleading his case on C/L.

"If you're interested in helping"

Interested in helping? You wanted to be this BIGTIME deal maker and now you're begging for MY charity? We should e-mail him Casey's web-site, I'm sure they'd have a lot to talk about!

Allah,

Please to notice the carefully "couched" position at the Mort. Bkr. Convention? It's as if ALL of the debt pressure is coming from the 12 million new homeowners they have "nurtured" into home debtorship! Through their help, concern and generosity they took the 30 year norm of 64% home ownership to 69% out of the goodness of their hearts.

Now that 4% are facing a personal hell of the MBA's making, they need to be prepared to face the "firestorm" from the media and focus on the 94% that ARE somehow making their payments (for now anyway).

Allah,

I'm very careful not to jump on any kind of a conspiracy theory band wagon but given the FACT that DOM has become totally meaningless can there be little doubt that the foreclosure figures won't be equally manipulated?

Allah,

Well, our friend in Bend would love for that to be true! He "just" sold an identical lot for a 160k profit so why not just sell the other one? What's the problem?

Agreed, FC's at this point are simply a foil. When I look at these things it gives you an idea as to what they "can't" sell for. Great article on the auction in San Diego that did not produce ONE stinking sale btw!

Another CNN FB seller sob story:

http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/24/real_estate/help_home_for_sale_Morrisett_maldve/index.htm?postversion=2006102410

All I can say about these dolts and their Realtwhore is, caveat emptor.

Hey! Where's the "lunch crowd"?

skibum, good stuff. I loved the "these are not intellectually challenged people" quote! Well o.k that might be but they are obviously "market psychology challenged"! These folks with steady paychecks really should try a little "barnstorming" if you want sleepless nights.

Allah,

When I look at the prices in some of those towns it just makes me a little queasy. The Green Light article exhibits just how real estate-centric our economy has become. Our guiding light going forward is about doing what's right for RE.

SFGuy

The problem with the current attempt to tighten mortgage lending regulations is one of enforcement. The Fed can only exert control directly over banks and institutions that make use of the Federal Reserve System; FDIC, etc. Many of the smaller lenders (and I think a couple of pretty big ones) are pure lenders and independent of the FRS.

The participating institutions, which includes most of the big buys and retail banks, make a very good argument against this type of lending regulation. They argue that imposing tightened lending standards will *increase* risk for the whole system, themselves included. That's because the are believed to employ less sophisticated risk management techniques, including lower effective lending standards. But they still sell their loans into the secondary markets. The ricochet comes back around to hurt the big banks more than the small lenders. So they argue that either:

a) Congress needs to pass comprehensive regs that apply to all mortgage lenders, not just FRS ones, or

b) There should be no regulation by gov't and the market should sort 'em out.

It's not a bad argument, even if it's obviously self-serving to the big banks. Our current government's bias makes it highly unlikely that they'd allow lopsided regs to go through which damage (in terms of both revenue and risk) the very largest corporate constituents.

And absolutely nothing until '07, guaranteed because of the tight election. And, even then, probably only if the changes in Congress the pundits keep gurgling about actually happens. (And even then it could just all die in gridlock. There'd be no chance of overriding veto on this type of legislation).

This is quite interesting too.

@allah, I saw that article, too. What it doesn't seem to account for is that the 4BR 2.5BA home in Palo Alto is an Eichler that hasn't been upgraded since the Nixon administration, while the same in TX or some other not-so-bubbly place is likely a new home in a development, albeit likely a crappily put together home. The strict comparison of like-sized homes is interesting, though.

@SF Guy,

The more exotic loans get written, the harder the crash, IMO. I just don't understand what idiots, in this day and age with even the MSM on the anti-NAALVP bandwagon, are still using these products.

Allah,

I'm not too sure about some of the new construction techniques at all. I spoke with a const. guy and he said with the new "wafer board" if it's exposed to the slightest leak it begins to "wick" up the moisture until the entire 4' X 8' sheet is rotted out!

Also when you drive past new const. you see all of these pre-fab trusses/joists and eaves laying out in the weather. They don't look all that sturdy to begin with being "stapled" together and bundled in a warped pile. I'm not one of those "don't build 'em like they used to" kind of guys but the whole process looks shaky.

With older homes more of it CAN be salvaged. Our old porch, later became the garage! The wife and I looked at a home built in 1958 just yesterday and make no mistake, it's got problems! But nothing that couldn't be worked through, also the taxes were much lower than new homes of similar sq. footage.

CB,

That's more or less what we noticed as well. About 80-100K to bring the mechanical systems, wiring, plumbing and windows up to snuff. If I was retired it would be a great "project". I'm not so it ain't.

Very true…..These loans will soon disappear once Wall Street realizes that they are a very bad investment;they are starting to realize this now.

These loans will disappear only after the blame game when people *demand* regulations to prevent it from happening again.

The blame game will not start for a while. Prices have to drop significantly *first*.

Robert C,

"picking their last musical chair" LOL!

I'm starting to wonder if the gates on the gated communities aren't designed to keep people in!

If UN sells the HQ as condos, the proceeds can probably help more people than they already have all these years.

SP,

I was at a few home sites over the weekend and noticed they have gone past that and are now using "flex" tubing w/crimp connectors. The manufactured home builders have done this for years and now it looks like it's becoming the standard for site built homes as well.

It's kind of neat really. You just "eyeball" what you think you'll need, snip, clamp, crimp and move on. You remember the old galvanized pipe right? When you shut off the water the whole run of pipe would rattle? PVC and this flex stuff can't rust! With hard water in old homes we'd run it until the pipe only yielded a trickle and then you'd have to replace the whole pipe even though it looked fine from the outside.

Very true…..These loans will soon disappear once Wall Street realizes that they are a very bad investment;they are starting to realize this now.

I hope this happens, I really do. However, I am not so sure it will. If there has been one genuine "new paradigm" to emerge from this monster of a bubble, it's the rise of mortgage-backed securities.

The MBS/CMO revolution is a very real tectonic shift in the way mortgages are financed and the way mortgage risk is being transferred from banks/lenders to individual investors & taxpayers. We must remember that MBS/CMOs are what have made issuing NAAVLPs and I/Os profitable, even with tiny risk premiums, because of that oh-so-critical risk-transferrence. Even the most toxic option-ARM is profitable to the originating lender --in fact, the fees & points (profits) are far HIGHER than they are on originating traditional 15/30-year FRMs or amortizing ARMs.

The new MBS/CMO risk transfer model has been working SO well for lenders that I fear only a complete economic meltdown (resulting from it) would deter banks from voluntarily continuing its use in the future. And, as Randy has pointed out, the current anti-regulation/pro-banking bias in government is so strong, involuntary regulations (with real enforcement) are pretty much out of the question --for now.

I think our best hope where these toxic loans are concerned is that MBS investors eventually begin to recognize that the underlying risk has been severly underpriced and demand greater premiums (which should result in higher mortgage interest rates, which in turn would deter widespread use of toxic loans). Of course, this will require FB defaults on a massive scale, something we could expect to see beginning next year, and continuing in waves for several more years.

Very true…..These loans will soon disappear once Wall Street realizes that they are a very bad investment;they are starting to realize this now.

This is like saying:

Bad people will soon disappear once other people realize that they are very bad people.

Do not underestimate human stupidity. Do not overestimate human will.

Allah,

A g r e e d....... One of the other things that I noticed was that instead of using these "engineered beams" (which is just wafer board capped by a run of "C" channel) they used FULL dimensional lumber for the main floor joists! Heavy duty stuff too! 6" X 6"? I'm not sure why but apparently there had been some problems with the wafer board beams. In years past they used 2" X 10" @ 16" OC so this looked like a whole new sub-floor system!

Great Chart on:

http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

It shows the "false bottom" (where the dead cats bounce)..

Have you heard of vigilantism?

What is that?

FAB,

"The Plateau of Denial" too funny! Charles does have his moments.

RE: New vs. old homes, we've lived in both. The old homes seem to be hit or miss. There's probably a tendency towards better construction because the better built homes are the ones that don't fall apart, and in general, tend to stick around longer w/o being torn down. But I've been in plenty of homes in the Boston area that are on their last legs. 18th century farmhouses where everything is sagging, sort of like an 80 year-old woman. Our brownstone in the city was built on pilings above landfill. The pilings require a high water level to prevent rotting, and because of the Big Dig and other construction (the T in particular), that water level has been receding. I remember a story about a guy who woke up one day in his Beacon Hill brownstone and couldn't open the front door. Turns out the house sank and shifted a fair amount overnight because of rotting pilings. On the other hand, the masses of ranches, plywood boxes, stucco boxes in the BA slapped together during the 50's and 60's are certainly not very well built. And McMansions, well those are another story. I doubt those are built to last more than 20 or 30 years. It'll be interesting to see what people do with those a few years down the road. I'd like to see an episode of "This Old House" 20 years from now about rehabbing someone's McAlbatross.

Currently, I'm all for well-designed prefab, or if I have enough resources, new design with a good architect.

newsfreak,

I wouldn't mind so much taking on an older home needing "a little" work but that's the problem! There really is no such thing as "a little" work. Once you start digging into things you find, Oh...... they never finished this, completed that and so on. It's not long before you've lost sight of what you were supposed to correct. Now what?

Since I work at home I worry what clients might think if you tell them Oh, don't worry just step on the floor beams! Any remodel looks like the product of a disorganized mind. It just doesn't speak well of you no matter how "sanitized" you go about it.

new thread: New Paradigm? The Rise of Mortgage-Backed Securities

That chart fits exactly with my sticky model. Call it denial, psychology, irrationality, or stickiness. It's all the same thing. Uneven movements downwards.

Thanks everyone for your comments on this thread. Not one post had to be moderated or deleted, although CR tested our patience. This thread will now be closed.

HARM and allah,
RE: MBS's, you guys suggest one resolution is increased compensation for the increasing risk of these products. A more catastrophic yet plausible outcome seems to be the collapse of more than a few hedge funds, or even old-school mutual funds and other investment vehicles due to massive mortgage defaults leading to massive loss in MBS valuations. Possible?