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Some Indicators


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2006 Jul 25, 2:46pm   17,333 views  197 comments

by Randy H   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

ITB
XHB

Homebuilders not looking so good. An early indication of a sharp decline to come? A "hard landing" perhaps?

Chart #1 is ITB: iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction
Chart #2 is XHB: SPDR Homebuilders

IYR
ICF

Broader real-estate indices have yet to turn so negative, though.

Chart #3 is IYR: iShares Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index Fund
Chart #4 is ICF: iShares Cohen & Steers Realty Majors Index Fund

** Important note, charts #1 & #2 have significantly less data and are relatively new ETFs, so the early part of the charts may reflect a lack of liquidity more than true underlying value.

If you're not familiar with ETFs, which is what these graphics are charting, they are simply industry-focused "mutual funds" which trade like stocks on the market. They provide a nice way to get a quick read on the health and direction of an industry or sector.

  • Click charts to see the large versions. You may have to "zoom" in your browser depending upon your screen size.
  • Traders, quants, experts, chartists, fundamentals-ists and geeks: dispute these metrics and suggest better ones.

--Randy H

#housing

« First        Comments 118 - 157 of 197       Last »     Search these comments

118   GallopingCheetah   2006 Jul 26, 10:15am  

In that chart, I only saw the rise of the Phoenix from the ashes.

119   GallopingCheetah   2006 Jul 26, 10:24am  

Besides, buying FRPT supports American industry and protect American troops. This company does not out-source. Everything is built on the land of and by the people of US of A.

120   Different Sean   2006 Jul 26, 10:27am  

can i short FRPT after its current pump n dump? why don't people short pump n dumps at the top? no short interest or liquidity, and timeframe is too short? i'm really warming to this shorting thing now...

121   GallopingCheetah   2006 Jul 26, 10:28am  

??
I was testing the bold face.

122   GallopingCheetah   2006 Jul 26, 10:31am  

DS,

I will considering uloading FRPT only after it breaks through its old all-time high.

123   Different Sean   2006 Jul 26, 10:35am  

i would've shorted the whole tech wreck... i never believed there was much underlying value in those stocks, given that nothing was actually being sold... except for a reasonable valuation of core enterprises like MS, Oracle, etc who were already providing essential products with a known value...

124   GallopingCheetah   2006 Jul 26, 10:37am  

Did you say MS? You made my day. Thank you!

FRPT makes real stuff that saved lives.

125   Different Sean   2006 Jul 26, 10:49am  

FRPT makes real stuff that saved lives. yes, so do medical manufacturers, but i would look at their P/E ratios, risks and prospects first before making an investment decision at any given price... d'oh!

anywhere, the war is too speculative for my liking, could peter out at any moment... then it would be necessary to start another one to keep lockheed martin et al going...

126   GallopingCheetah   2006 Jul 26, 10:57am  

anywhere, the war is too speculative for my liking, could peter out at any moment ...

Indeed. The upcoming election is important for investment (woops speculation).


then it would be necessary to start another one to keep lockheed martin et al going…

At least one does not need to speculate here.

127   Different Sean   2006 Jul 26, 11:23am  

...i think it’s the size *and estimatible probability* of the potential downside...

as a mathematical function...

risk management theory in its perfect exquisite detail isn't my forté either, just something you can nod and look knowledgeable about when it's mentioned… beloved of outsourcing and merger and acquisition advisers... what was the thread topic again?

128   Different Sean   2006 Jul 26, 11:24am  

estimable... estimableness...

129   Randy H   2006 Jul 26, 1:26pm  

Better yet, use the linear scale and compare to S&P 500 buy-n-hold returns.

http://tinyurl.com/o2ofk

Isn't FRPT.OB one of those getting pimped by daytrader email spam? It would explain the volume curve.

130   Peter P   2006 Jul 26, 4:48pm  

The same chart in log scale is more dramatc:

http://tinyurl.com/khspr

131   GallopingCheetah   2006 Jul 26, 5:32pm  

As they say, "Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results."

132   DinOR   2006 Jul 27, 2:14am  

George,

Truly George, truly yet another bizarre development. Not unlike today's housing numbers!

I hope everyone will excuse me for a moment I need to evict a few elderly widows and club some baby seals!

133   DinOR   2006 Jul 27, 2:30am  

George,

You know, they don't tell the half of it. With all of the FB's ill-fated attempts to go FSBO (and all of the discounters coming out of the woodwork) there's no tellin' just how much inventory is really out there! A couple of weeks ago I was driving down Fremont in NE Portland to see a client and I couldn't believe how many FSBO signs I saw! At first I thought they were all the FSBO (TM) type listings. On the way back I noticed the signs (while similar) actually were from totally different "FSBO type" outfits and no two were the same. I mean how many ways can you say "For Sale"?

134   DinOR   2006 Jul 27, 2:42am  

Oh btw, for those that might not be familiar Portland, OR is the "epicenter" for the DIY (do it yourself) movement. After all, pot is a misdemeanor here and it all spawned from the same solid logic that brought us the "firefox, mother earth and grow your own" mentality. Drive through "trendy" up and coming neighborhoods here and witness first hand all the "funky" colors and creativity! It's as if the hippies tried to "graft" the "Haight" and keep it alive here in Portland. I suppose that is ONE good thing about the bubble. As the property became more "valuable" the hippies got moved out and had to find "other digs" or conform, man.

135   DinOR   2006 Jul 27, 2:44am  

SQT,

It's cooled of here somewhat but just yesterday I had an appt. and in the time it took me to walk from the parking lot to the building I was in a rolling sweat. Great, just the way I like to show up for a client!

93 degrees.

136   HARM   2006 Jul 27, 3:17am  

All these reports about record heat waves are mystifying to me --I thought Global Warming was only a myth promoted by people with a Leftist-Luddite agenda.

(_ducks_)

137   DinOR   2006 Jul 27, 3:30am  

Returning to Bay Area,

Because we lived for years in very rural part of Oregon I got in the habit of using one of those "hand crank" radios for outages. It at least takes your mind off of how hot (or cold) you really are! We also spent about $150 on a kerosene heater that I thought would be just for emergencies but it turns out they're great any time! Oh and CA's make sure your radio has solar capabilities too! They sound pretty awful but at least you'll be informed.

138   Peter P   2006 Jul 27, 4:09am  

All these reports about record heat waves are mystifying to me –I thought Global Warming was only a myth promoted by people with a Leftist-Luddite agenda.

(_ducks_)

My wife lets me turn on the AC only if I believe global warming is real. :(

139   Peter P   2006 Jul 27, 4:14am  

This recent experience reminded me of that. I need to find out how much a small generator would cost. Could be handy during the next heat wave (and you know there will be one).

I thought generator costs around $300 - $500 per kW.

140   Peter P   2006 Jul 27, 4:15am  

I do believe in "urban warming", which is very real.

141   Peter P   2006 Jul 27, 4:21am  

Exactly. Both sides treat the others like idiots.

Although I resist the global warming theory, I do respect those who believe in it. As I have said, most liberals genuinely want a better world for everyone. The disagreement is in what and how.

142   DinOR   2006 Jul 27, 4:28am  

While home generators have made some great strides in maint. and becoming more user friendly I don't believe that they are too economically efficient. Look at the nut cases that ran out and bought these things during Y2K. Within a few weeks there were tons of them for sale in the thrifties. If you paid say $1,000 and only used it for ONE k/h that's some pretty expense power my friend!

Call me a "Mosquito Coast" kind of guy but all a generator does is "validate" our dependency on power. I would love to be able to build a "hacienda" out in the middle of the desert with NO A/C! Perhaps with the right combination of situating the home, shade and a little luck this might be possible. I've heard of people using "mist-ers" to drop external temps by as much as 20 degrees using very little power.

Frankly, the level of complaints by Oregonians about the heat has been embarassing.

143   astrid   2006 Jul 27, 4:28am  

I heard the AC units weren't able to keep up with the heat last weekend and there were some power outages in the south bay. I couldn't believe SF got up to 97F. There was truly no escape. (except maybe loiter in indoor shopping malls and movie theaters?...I wonder the temperature around local swimming pools)

I find a powerful fan and a mist bottle to be useful in hot dry situations.

This has been a pretty miserable year in the BA weatherwise, first the rain til June and then the extreme heat in July. Will August and September bring baseball size hail?

Peter P,

Although I don't believe the current heat wave is a function of global warming, your wife sounds very cool.

144   Peter P   2006 Jul 27, 4:30am  

Although I don’t believe the current heat wave is a function of global warming, your wife sounds very cool.

She IS very cool. We should all meet for sushi. :)

145   astrid   2006 Jul 27, 4:31am  

DinOR,

If you live in a relatively dry area, building your house underground will dramatically curb your power bill and give your home a cave like ambience.

146   Peter P   2006 Jul 27, 4:33am  

If you live in a relatively dry area, building your house underground will dramatically curb your power bill and give your home a cave like ambience.

But underground square footage is not "legally" counted. So when you sell the house you willl have to list it as

0 sqft with BIG basement.

147   astrid   2006 Jul 27, 4:33am  

Peter P,

One day :) Right now I'm still stuck on the east coast with about a zillion mosquitoes.

148   astrid   2006 Jul 27, 4:39am  

"0 sqft with BIG basement."

(Outside of CA)Would that lower property taxes on the home?

149   astrid   2006 Jul 27, 4:42am  

I've never heard of dog meat sashimi, though I've heard of horse and beef and even pork sashimi.

Funny you guys brought up sushi. I was reading about the fresh availability of Kobe beef (incl. sashimi) in the NYTimes.

http://tinyurl.com/mczts

150   Peter P   2006 Jul 27, 4:49am  

I was reading about the fresh availability of Kobe beef (incl. sashimi) in the NYTimes.

Must be expensive. Let's hope the supply will not be interrupted again. Now let's hope that puffer fish can come in too. :)

151   DinOR   2006 Jul 27, 4:51am  

astrid,

That's a good idea! I'd heard of "earth sheltered" homes and that they can be effective in just about any climate. Hot or cold. Since the place I'm visualizing is off the beaten path and unattended for much of the year I worried vandalism/vagrants might be a real problem. Creating a "faux" home as an entry way (and decoy) might convince tresspassers there was nothing there to steal or break.

152   astrid   2006 Jul 27, 4:51am  

They were quoting 70 to 80 dollars a pound wholesale. A piece of sashimi would set you back $9.

153   Peter P   2006 Jul 27, 4:53am  

Not often. Still, it is like insurance. You pay a lot for insurance, right? The generator is like power insurance.

True. There should be a case for redundant AC too. I love redundancy and over-engineering. :)

My friend's AC broke during the heatwave and it was extremely difficult to get help fixing that.

154   Peter P   2006 Jul 27, 4:55am  

They were quoting 70 to 80 dollars a pound wholesale. A piece of sashimi would set you back $9.

Really? That is not bad, considering that domestic wagyu costs $50 - $100 a pound. There are many grades of Japanese beef though.

155   Peter P   2006 Jul 27, 4:56am  

Creating a “faux” home as an entry way (and decoy) might convince tresspassers there was nothing there to steal or break.

LOL :lol:

And you can list that as

800 sqft teardown/fixer-upper with 4000 sqft luxury, fully finished basement with hardwood floor and granite kitchen.

156   DinOR   2006 Jul 27, 4:57am  

A lot of our friends don't have A/C here in OR. Most newer homes seem to have or at least offer to install a "climate control" system but for the two weeks out of the year you might actually need it, well it just seemed like a bad "return on investment".

BUT, almost all motor homes/campers come with A/C so we know a lot of people that slept in their CAMPERS for the last few nights! It was uncomfortable, (I'll grant you that) but when it's hot you don't seem to need as much sleep. Or at least I don't. When I was stationed in the Philippines I operated off of 2-4 hours during a 24 hr. period. It didn't seem like a sacrifice at all!

157   astrid   2006 Jul 27, 4:58am  

DinOR,

Hehe, your idea is quite similar to Chinese imperial mausoleums. Since a lot of goods were buried with the deceased emperor, they would hide the entryway (and kill the builders with knowledge about the entrance) and build a separate temple nearby for their descendents to offer sacrifices.

I might be wrong, but I believe earth sheltered homes work particularly well in areas with low water table, since humidity is not a problem.

It's surprising that this idea is not more of a hit than it is. I know lots of people who spend the majority of their at home in the basement rec room/entertainment center.

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