patrick.net

Sheee-it! It's a total flood now. I can't keep up with it all. I NEED ASSISTANCE. :)

I think Trump had four political reasons for imposing these H1B fees:

1. It raises American wages and lowers competition for housing. Real MAGA stuff.
2. It retaliates against India for buying Russian oil.
3. It hurts Amazon, Google, Facebook, and other such tech monsters with severe TDS.
4. It lowers house prices in California in particular, and California has severe TDS.

So it's perfectly rational all around.

But what about the other visa programs which are used to fuck American workers?

L-1 (Intracompany Transferee) For executives, managers, or specialized knowledge workers transferring from a foreign affiliate. No cap.
J-1 (Exchange Visitor) For trainees/interns in professional programs (e.g., au pairs, researchers). Unlimited.
H-1B1 (Chile/Singapore) Like H-1B but for citizens of Chile/Singapore in specialty occupations. 6,800/year total
E-3 (Australia) Specialty occupations for Australian citizens. 10,500/year (rarely fills).
TN (NAFTA/USMCA) Professionals from Canada/Mexico in listed occupations (e.g., engineers). Unlimited.
H-2B (Temporary Non-Agricultural) Seasonal/temporary non-farm workers (e.g., hospitality). 66,000/year
O-1 (Extraordinary Ability) For individuals with exceptional talent in sciences, arts, etc.

Patrick says

4. It lowers house prices in California in particular, and California has severe TDS

FREMONT, CA <-- Ground Fucking Zero

I think he did it because they are having fight with India (brics related). India buys Russian gas, we big mad at them.

They already backtracked most of it.

MolotovCocktail says

Banks get fucked? What's not to like about this. When do we ever see banks get fucked as opposed to the little guys?

stereotomy says

MolotovCocktail says

Banks get fucked? What's not to like about this. When do we ever see banks get fucked as opposed to the little guys?

Flee with unpaid debt is whole different than flee with unpaid asset.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u9-0Nl2a32w

Interesting rant from Indian media. Turn on captions.

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u9-0Nl2a32w

Interesting rant from Indian media. Turn on captions.

What a load of shit, mostly. Notice the entitlement they have?

REpro says

Banks get fucked? What's not to like about this. When do we ever see banks get fucked as opposed to the little guys?

Flee with unpaid debt is whole different than flee with unpaid asset.

Eh, it's a business transaction the bank made with a customer that likely won't live in the country forever. Happens with natural US citizens as well. That's the risk of lending. If I could find a lease deal in the Caribbean at retirement age, I'd max refi the house and max out the credit cards with cash advances. I'd have probably $1,200,000 that's not included already in the retirement picture. Have to forgo SS, but I'd make more on the $1.2M in interest and dividends then just tap our 401k's.

Places in the USVI look rough, that's because they have to ship their garbage away. Actually extremely religious and conservative. Only catch 22 is daily goods are expensive at stores. Like 20-30% higher. I'd probably meet friends down there and just order an annual shipping container with TP, paper towels, dishwasher pods, laundry detergent, hygiene products, shelf stable food products, if legal beer (way expensive down there), etc. It's the type of crap that "oh we're fine with that for now" but it just cost way more down there. Just have to have storage space. Oh and hurricanes are problematic.

This is why I don't get it's some humanitarian crisis. They're bringing back more money to your country. If that government thinks it's that shitty, that's saying something. That could be billions invested in India's economy. If anything it's a win win for the US and India. Yes there will be a flood of capital out, but US citizens are capable of filling the void. Fact is the capital was already flowing back to India anyway.

REpro says

stereotomy says

MolotovCocktail says

Banks get fucked? What's not to like about this. When do we ever see banks get fucked as opposed to the little guys?

Flee with unpaid debt is whole different than flee with unpaid asset.

Student loan debt. CC debt. Business loans.

MIGA!

stereotomy says

Banks get fucked? What's not to like about this. When do we ever see banks get fucked as opposed to the little guys?

As long as the Fed exists, they will print to prevent any pain to the biggest banks.

Some small banks might get hurt though.

MolotovCocktail says

What a load of shit, mostly. Notice the entitlement they have?

That was exactly what I considered writing but I suspected someone else would so I held off for confirmation haha..

Patrick says

stereotomy says

Banks get fucked? What's not to like about this. When do we ever see banks get fucked as opposed to the little guys?

As long as the Fed exists, they will print to prevent any pain to the biggest banks.

Some small banks might get hurt though.

Yeah, big banks don't make Silicon Valley Bank mistakes.

.

AD says

Patrick says

stereotomy says

Banks get fucked? What's not to like about this. When do we ever see banks get fucked as opposed to the little guys?

As long as the Fed exists, they will print to prevent any pain to the biggest banks.

Some small banks might get hurt though.

Yeah, big banks don't make Silicon Valley Bank mistakes.

.

No, they make even bigger mistakes, but they are "too big to fail," so they keep getting bailed out.

Remember that definition of insanity - "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result."

This must logically lead one to conclude that the Fed collectively is fucking insane.

End the Fed.

WookieMan says

This is why I don't get it's some humanitarian crisis.

'Humanitarian crisis' is codespeak for remittances cut off. Indians in the US send home about $140 billion annually. That comprises 30% of the Indian government's tax revenue. That's the crisis they care about.

MolotovCocktail says

Damn!

Trump always seems to disappoint that way.

Big promises, failure to deliver.

It's still a good start

mell says

It's still a good start

True.

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

MolotovCocktail says

What a load of shit, mostly. Notice the entitlement they have?

That was exactly what I considered writing but I suspected someone else would so I held off for confirmation haha..

MolotovCocktail says

For those of you who think I am too much of a racist asshole...you would be too if you lived here to see what happened over 30 years. You would be too if you had to train TWO Jeets to take over my job like I had to. And I personally liked a few Jeets despite that. Not any fucking more. I was stupid.

Exhibit B:

MolotovCocktail says

https://x.com/thejobchick/status/1969840897505542441
I wasn’t planning to make my H-1B overview public just yet.

A supporter read it and offered to cover the paywall - to make sure this went public.

“More people need to see this. Keep the conversation going.”

Message received.
The H-1B article is now free for all:

https://insideredgereport.com/p/pay-to-play-politics
Pay-to-Play Politics?
$100K H-1B Visa Fee Won’t Bring Jobs Back
Amanda Goodall
Sep 20, 2025

I’m not gonna sugarcoat this you guys… Over the last 24 hours, the conversation around Trump’s new $100K H-1B visa fee has been a mess of misstatements, bad takes, and misplaced outrage.

I’ve got a really STRONG OPINION on this H1B news…. I’m not celebrating. I look too much into the workforce data to not care. I have said more than once that H1B’s are the distraction to what is going on with the workforce and The Corporate Revolution.

“If they really cared about U.S. jobs, H-1B would be gone tomorrow. But it’s not. That tells you everything.”

But let’s get the facts straight…

What REALLY went down?
On September 19, 2025, Trump issued a proclamation slapping a $100,000 fee on new H-1B petitions.

It applies only to petitions filed after September 21, 2025 at 12:01 AM. USCIS clarified:

It’s not retroactive.

Current H-1B visa holders are not affected.

Renewals are exempt.

This is a one-time petition fee, not an annual tax.

So if you already have an H-1B, you’re fine. If you’re filing new, you….or your sponsoring company…need $100K on the table.

The Confusion Campaign
Already, we’ve got videos circulating with Howard Lutnick saying it’s “$100K per year” when he was speaking in the Oval Office when Trump signed the Presidential Proclamation ( NOT an EO btw- more on that later…) Wrong. Miscommunication?

When something happens and the basics are quoted wrong, the spin cycle takes off… and the public gets distracted from the real issue: this doesn’t solve the labor market problem.

The White House’s Spin vs. Reality
Karoline Leavitt, Press Secretary, rushed to frame it cleanly:

Not annual.

Not applied to renewals.

Won’t hit people re-entering the country on an existing visa.

What NOBODY is talking about is the biggest part of the entire H-1B proclamation…

The DHS Secretary has full discretion to waive the fee.

Meaning? The $100K sticker price is only the baseline…. it’s negotiable.

If DHS decides hiring you is in the "national interest," the fee disappears. That’s not reform. That’s pay-to-play discretion - not immigration policy. This is NOT my opinion- this is in the proclamation .

From USCIS X Posting:

President Trump’s new H-1B visa requirement applies only to NEW, prospective petitions that have not yet been filed. Petitions submitted prior to September 21, 2025 are not affected.

This Doesn’t Help American Workers
This is the part no one wants to admit:

Slapping a $100K toll on H-1Bs won’t magically produce job offers for American workers.

Companies don’t have to hire Americans… they can offshore. And offshoring isn’t just about remote postings.

We’re talking entire headquarters, warehouses, and factories in India, Mexico, Eastern Europe, and beyond.They’ll just ramp those up.

Loopholes remain wide open.

DHS can exempt whomever it wants, whenever it wants.

I said it plainly: “The story is a $100K price tag slapped on visas that won’t magically create offers for American workers.” That’s it. That’s the signal.
The Real Cost to Companies
Here’s another piece most people miss because the MSM just doesn’t even talk about this.

For corporations, $100K is just another business expense.

Just like paying tariffs, or just like insurance paying out claims rather than fighting in court, it’s cheaper to just pay the bill than overhaul the model.

Think about it like this: companies already budget for tariffs, lawsuits, fines, and compliance fees.

This is just another line item.
And unlike American workers, H-1Bs are locked into their employer.

They don’t “buck the trend,” they don’t job hop the same way, and they’re less likely to leave midstream.

That stickiness has value.

Companies will gladly eat the $100K fee for predictable labor.

Petition Math… (seriously this is WILD)
Here’s the part nobody in media is spelling out. And bare with me -- I’m not a math girl…

The $100K fee isn’t assessed on “approvals” - it’s assessed per petition filed.

That matters, because the number of petitions is always higher than the number of approvals.

Companies flood USCIS with initial and continuing petitions; most get approved (denial rates for these firms hover around 2–3%).

But it means the ceiling number everyone is actually screaming about … $4 billion … is just that: a ceiling.

Recently I did a report on the companies with the most H-1B approvals… 11 of them to be exact.

Now let’s go company by company, using USCIS Data Hub numbers:

Amazon (all entities combined: Com Services, AWS, Data Services)

~13,200 petitions filed in FY 2025 (3,800+ were brand-new initial hires).

If every petition got hit with $100K? $1.32B.

If it’s just the initials? $380M.

Amazon revenue: $590B. This is pennies.

Microsoft

~5,300 petitions filed; ~1,300 were initial.

$530M max exposure, $130M realistic.

Revenue: $245B.

Apple

~4,300 petitions; about 1,000 new.

$430M ceiling, $100M real exposure.

Revenue: $383B.

Meta Platforms

~5,250 petitions; ~900 new.

$525M ceiling, $90M real.

Revenue: $142B.

Google (Alphabet)

~4,181 approvals, ~20% initial → ~4,300 petitions filed.

Roughly 900 initial.

$430M ceiling, ~$90M real.

Revenue: $307B.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS)

~5,650 petitions filed; ~1,450 initial.

$565M ceiling, $145M real.

Revenue: $29B. Even here, the ratio works… cheaper to pay the toll.

JPMorgan Chase

~2,500 petitions; ~600 new.

$250M ceiling, $60M real.

Revenue: $162B.

Cisco Systems

~1,600 petitions; ~400 new.

$160M ceiling, $40M real.

Revenue: $57B.

General Motors

~590 petitions; ~150 new.

$59M ceiling, $15M real.

Revenue: $171B.

Visa Inc. (Tech + Ops divisions)

~480 petitions; ~120 new.

$48M ceiling, $12M real.

Revenue: $35B.

Totals across all 11 entities:

~39,000 petitions filed (FY 2025, prelim).

~8,000–9,000 were truly initial hires that would realistically face the $100K fee.

That’s $3.9B at the ceiling, but only about $1.0–$1.1B in reality.

Four billion spread across eleven giants is not reform.
$1 billion spread across eleven companies whose combined revenues exceed $2 trillion is a rounding error, and corporations will gladly pay it.

These firms spend more than that on snacks, lobbying, or one failed moonshot project.
Then, there is the ‘loophole’
The fine print is everything.

The proclamation allows DHS to waive the fee entirely if it’s deemed in the ‘national interest.’

That’s a moving target. What counts as “national interest”?

AI engineers? Cybersecurity?

Whatever the administration decides this week as things and the geopolitical landscape changes?

Big Tech and Fortune 500 firms with lobbying power will be just fine.

The smaller players, startups, and less-connected firms? They eat the full $100K cost.

This is all about optics, not structure.

Optics: “We’re cracking down on H-1B abuse.”

Reality: The architecture of underpayment and exploitation doesn’t change. It just gets a new cover fee.

You don’t fix the pipeline by tolling it. You fix it by restructuring the incentives that created the abuse in the first place.

Expect three things to happen now:
Lobbyist carveouts. Big companies will use the DHS waiver clause to bypass the $100K. We probably won’t hear about this, but the workforce data will keep show. Companies can’t keep saying headcount its remaining the same when Americans aren’t being hired and they are denying paying the 100K fees… or we will know what is up.

Offshoring surge. Companies unwilling to pay will move more work abroad. This is a no brainer for many. But honestly, after that Tech WH dinner… I would imagine it’s all water under the bridge and planned out. I don’t expect the Mag 7 to do a thing.

Restructuring risk. Smaller companies may use the cover of this policy to RIF American workers while justifying H-1B hires as “market necessity.”

My Take… Straight Up
This isn’t about “protecting American jobs,” it’s about creating a new revenue lever the government can pull at will.

A $100K toll that can be waived for the well-connected isn’t reform… it’s rent-seeking.

The quote I’ve already dropped still stands:

The $100K visa fee won’t bring jobs back. It just makes it more expensive to underpay imported labor. This won’t magically create offers for American workers… it just shifts the price of exploitation. Pay to Play.

The other thing I haven’t mentioned…..
Here’s the metaphor that explains it:

Imagine buying two homes next door, knocking them both down, and building one mega-house.

Companies can do the same with their workforce.

They’ll RIF American workers under the cover of “restructuring,” and replace them with H-1Bs—even if they have to eat the $100K per head.

Why? Because in the long run, it’s cheaper and stickier.

That’s the workforce math.

Can I be a bit counterfactual?
If this was really about protecting U.S. workers, the government would kill the H-1B program outright. But they didn’t. Why?

Because corporations want it. Because the system is built for them, not for American workers. And until that changes, this is what many on X seem to call a nothingburger.

This move isn’t structural reform… it’s political optics.

Don’t get distracted by the sticker shock. Watch the loopholes, the discretion, and the inevitable carveouts.

The labor market is still broken. And the $100K H-1B fee doesn’t change that.

Sticker shock without structural change is still theater.

I’ll keep an eye on the workforce. Question is… will the stock market care? What sectors will rise and what ones will have a moment. Many are already keeping their eye on ACN -0.12%↓ - INFY -3.70%↓ & CTSH -5.43%↓

Amanda Goodall | The Job Chick

Through TheJobChick.com, I deliver exclusive reports that break down workforce trends… auto, energy, tech.. and more .. and can brief your team on actionable strategies for investors, workers, and executives.

My InsiderEdgeLIVE membership, launching next week, is your ticket to weekly deep dives, custom trade alerts, and one-on-one consulting tailored to your portfolio or business. This isn’t cookie-cutter analysis… you know me from X. You know that is not what I am about… it’s personal, precise, and built on a decades of decoding labor markets to predict global shifts.

Reach out now at amanda@thejobchick.com or visit www.thejobchick.com to secure your spot for InsiderEdgeLIVE early access.

Membership means direct access to my expertise… real-time workforce analysis, custom trade support, and the kind of reporting that turns chaos into opportunity.

Email me today, join the membership, and let’s turn these signals into your success.

The world’s shifting… be the one who’s ready.

preed says

Companies don’t have to hire Americans… they can offshore. And offshoring isn’t just about remote postings.

We’re talking entire headquarters, warehouses, and factories in India, Mexico, Eastern Europe, and beyond.They’ll just ramp those up.

If that were true, they would have done so already. Hell, Intel, Microsoft, META, Alphabet, etc. already have such offices set up in India already.

So why the need for H1Bs here?

Also she doesn't realize what the effects on schools, housing, etc is here. Ship their asses home.

Trump definitely failed this one.

Fortwaye says

Trump definitely failed this one.

This to scare Modi, I think.

HOW IS THIS IN THE INTEREST OF AMERICAN PEOPLE?

- - -

In fiscal 2025, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services listed the H-1B visas numbers approved for Michigan companies. Here are the top recipients:

Ford, 649
General Motors, 574
University of Michigan, 333
Atos Syntel Inc., 266
HCL Global Systems Inc., 186
HCL Global Services Inc., 179
FCA US LLC, 171
Populus Group LLC, 141
TATA Elxsi Limited, 104
Henry Ford Health System, 102
Ally Bank, 101
Aptive Corporation, 87
KPIT Technologies Inc., 85
Robert Bosch LLC, 78
United Wholesale Mortgage, 77
Akkodis Inc., 71
Michigan State University, 71
Rocket Mortgage LLC, 69
Epitec Inc., 68
Tata Technologies Inc., 68
Miracle Software Systems, 66
Technosoft Corporation, 60
Alixpartners LLP, 57
Stryker Corporation, 52
Wayne State University, 48
Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan, 45
Altimetrick Corp, 44
Strategic Staffing Solutions, 43
Credit Acceptance Corporation, 38
Ford Motor Credit Company, 36
Infostretch Corporation, 35
Manga Electronics, 35
Altair Engineering, 34
Altair Product Design, 33
Domino's Pizza, 33
Aptive U.S. Services General, 32
Whirlpool Corporation, 32
Comerica Management, 31
BorgWarner PDS USA, 28
Reliable Software Resources, 27
Flagstar Bank, 27

https://www.reddit.com/r/StopH1B/

https://www.reddit.com/r/H1BVisaFraud/comments/1nhfdl1/how_i_expose_h1b_indian_scammers/

⁃ 700,000 H1B’s
⁃ 250,000 L1 visas — hire in India and transfer to the US
⁃ 100,000 country-specific visas
⁃ 350,000 “intern visas”to go home and permanently take your job
⁃ 1 million “student” visas with work privileges
⁃ 250,000 “OPT” visas that function like H1B

All while Americans can’t find work

MolotovCocktail says

Too bad.