invite response« First « Previous Comments 155 - 161 of 161 Search these comments
155
AD
2023 Oct 5, 8:55pm
AD
2023 Oct 5, 8:55pm
I give credit to Fox Business on this article today: https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/new-data-reveals-crash-not-since-great-depression-could-hit-2024
They report M2 money supply dropping rapidly while still prices remain high. They mention how money supply and prices both dropped precipitously during the Great Depression.
I hope we see CPI reported this month (for September 2023) at a monthly gain of less than 0.3% and an annual gain of less than 3.5%.
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They report M2 money supply dropping rapidly while still prices remain high. They mention how money supply and prices both dropped precipitously during the Great Depression.
I hope we see CPI reported this month (for September 2023) at a monthly gain of less than 0.3% and an annual gain of less than 3.5%.
.
156
Misc
2023 Oct 6, 1:27am
Ahhhhh, those crazy kids at Credit Suisse blew something up. For those keeping track, a TBTF (too big to fail) bank failed. The depositors made it out without losses. Bond and stock holders...well not so much. Banksters think they will get government bailouts, but I'm gonna bet the next TBTF that goes is gonna get Nationalized. Could be that by trying to save the banks' depositors, that country's government could collapse.
TBTF banks don't really lend to each other nowadays (haven't since September 17, 2019). They cannot therefore count on funds from other banks. They are reliant on Central banks.
There is probably gonna be more bank crisis coming up. We could see rapid movements in currencies. There have been a lot of one way bets on a stronger dollar (with plenty of leverage on those trades). Everyone thinks they can exit their trades before other actors can.
There may be a re-pricing event coming.
TBTF banks don't really lend to each other nowadays (haven't since September 17, 2019). They cannot therefore count on funds from other banks. They are reliant on Central banks.
There is probably gonna be more bank crisis coming up. We could see rapid movements in currencies. There have been a lot of one way bets on a stronger dollar (with plenty of leverage on those trades). Everyone thinks they can exit their trades before other actors can.
There may be a re-pricing event coming.
157
stfu
2023 Oct 6, 5:21am
Misc says
This isn't being discussed enough - the overnight lending facilities essentially froze up in fall of 2019 and then, COVID OMG!!! and the fed spigots were opened.
TBTF banks don't really lend to each other nowadays (haven't since September 17, 2019)
This isn't being discussed enough - the overnight lending facilities essentially froze up in fall of 2019 and then, COVID OMG!!! and the fed spigots were opened.
158
NuttBoxer
2023 Oct 6, 6:38am
NuttBoxer
2023 Oct 6, 6:38am
I talked about it, when it happened. Scamdemic was cover to prevent a collapse they couldn't control, and distract from the fact most 1% are pedophiles.
159
Misc
2023 Oct 9, 5:21am
Here's a guy that is sorta knowledgeable, who sees problems coming up in the banking sector.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-whole-banking-sector-is-uninvestable-steve-eisman-of-big-short-fame-warns-about-mounting-challenges-for-financial-institutions-here-s-what-he-s-betting-on-instead/ar-AA1hV1BH?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=e04f71507eb94568a9fc01d67f717067&ei=20
He simply sees decreased profitability, but his gut tells him to avoid the sector like the plague. Some people know the extent that the banks are simply lying on their quarterly financials. Who knows? Maybe someone will call them out on their fraud. If not this quarter, then definitely after they report 4th quarter earnings.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-whole-banking-sector-is-uninvestable-steve-eisman-of-big-short-fame-warns-about-mounting-challenges-for-financial-institutions-here-s-what-he-s-betting-on-instead/ar-AA1hV1BH?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=e04f71507eb94568a9fc01d67f717067&ei=20
He simply sees decreased profitability, but his gut tells him to avoid the sector like the plague. Some people know the extent that the banks are simply lying on their quarterly financials. Who knows? Maybe someone will call them out on their fraud. If not this quarter, then definitely after they report 4th quarter earnings.
160
gabbar
2023 Oct 9, 5:52am
gabbar
2023 Oct 9, 5:52am
Misc says
How does one know that every company is not lying on their earnings reports? No one is checking it, right? If someone/somebody is checking the numbers, how accurate are these checks? And the impacts of deliberately playing with numbers?
Some people know the extent that the banks are simply lying on their quarterly financials
How does one know that every company is not lying on their earnings reports? No one is checking it, right? If someone/somebody is checking the numbers, how accurate are these checks? And the impacts of deliberately playing with numbers?
161
Misc
2023 Oct 9, 5:59am
gabbar says
With banks there are dozens of regulators embedded in the banks themselves. With the TBTF there are hundreds embedded, The regulators don't really question the banks. They simply review the numbers provided. It takes a little work to get fraudulent numbers into the system.
Misc says
Some people know the extent that the banks are simply lying on their quarterly financials
How does one know that every company is not lying on their earnings reports? No one is checking it, right? If someone/somebody is checking the numbers, how accurate are these checks? And the impacts of deliberately playing with numbers?
With banks there are dozens of regulators embedded in the banks themselves. With the TBTF there are hundreds embedded, The regulators don't really question the banks. They simply review the numbers provided. It takes a little work to get fraudulent numbers into the system.
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Some mainstream economist crunched the figures and came up with a $620 billion dollar hit to the banks balance sheets if these were marked to market. That is if they needed to be sold.
We haven't even gotten to the fun part yet. That's when borrowers start to not pay back their loans because they ran out of money they could borrow on their credit lines. Credit spreads are widening especially for junk bonds. They are now over a 5% spread to treasuries. That means companies are borrowing at about a rate of 8-9%. Companies trying to roll-over their outstanding debt are gonna find that they just can't pencil in anything except for losses at these new rates. Credit is simply going to dry up for a large swath of corporations.
Good luck to all with your investments.
https://www.axios.com/2023/03/21/high-yield-bond-spreads-show-increasing-recession-jitters