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Meaningless statistics


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2005 Dec 27, 2:44pm   15,128 views  84 comments

by Peter P   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

TWIT suggested this:

Perhaps a post about meaningless statistics would be in order.

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41   Peter P   2005 Dec 29, 10:30am  

BTW, won’t border jumpers make good target practice for green troops and nat’l guardsmen? Sounds like an opportunity to me.

It is much cheaper and easier to build electrified fencing IMHO. Perhaps I am just a boring and passive person. :)

42   DeoVindice   2005 Dec 29, 10:42am  

"DeoVindice, are you really a Southern neo-sessionist (as your name implies)?"

No. Why would we secede when we control the house, the senate, and are about to add another conservative to the court. That would be illogical. I do have a deep respect for the patriots who fought to preserve the constituion and the republic from New England tyranny, "The noble cause".

I just believe that New England is dangerous and always has been. I resent the negative force that they are and always have been. In particular, I have 2 children, and I do not appreciate what the Ivy League leftists have done to our educational system. But really, I have no repsect for any of their views or their cynical power games. (For example, take a look at the Left wing of the Democratic party).

It also turns my stomach that educators in our school system tell our children that Lincoln was a good man and the saviour of our country. He deliberately targeted women and children and sought to cause as much suffering as possible. Beyond that, people have a right to choose their own govt. Our founding fathers believed that. It's why their children and grand children served as the high command and officers of the confederate army and government. No one is obligated to live at the mercy of a dictator without a fight.

My one concern is that they must be finished off completely. The North did us a courtesy in not finishing us off; I hope that we do not return the favor. When the climate is sufficiently unfavorable for them, they may well reform their own society and get rid of the entrenched interests that have always used the rest of the US as their colonies for the looting.

It is not illogical to conclude that the entrenched powers in NE will move to secede to preserve their power. That is the nature of power; Self preservation. I'm sure the South will let them secede if they choose that route. It is their right. We will load them down with debt if they do decide to leave.

By the way, the phrase "Power corrupts, and absolute power corrupts absolutely" came from correspondence between Lord Acton and Robert E. Lee. It was about Araham Lincoln and New England moneyed interests in particular.

BTW, your founding fathers were British nobles who supprted Charles the first against Cromwell's Puritans--the cousins of the New Englanders. The king got his head cut off, and they fled to Virginia. They were not the peasants that New engalnders are. That is the historical event that the beginning credits in "Gone with the Wind" refer to. The Lees, Randolphs, Carters, Washington's, and many other fine families descend from the knights who rode with William the conquerer in 1066 and Richard the Lion Hearted to Jerusalem. The Mayflower finds this fact inconvenient, as does our public educational system.

That is why George Washington, General Lee, Thomas Jefferson and other VA patriots were able to handle power without being corrupted. They were born into it. And that is why it is crucial that we defeat New England and its corrupt cronies. The constitution and the republic of our founding fathers will be restored.

--Deo Vindice

43   DeoVindice   2005 Dec 29, 10:49am  

Fl, NV, and VA are experiencing a bubble in Blue state speculators. It was certainly not locals in FL and NV; They don't have the money. NOVA is a cesspool of yankee invaders.

I had a friend at UVA whose family had been in Fairfax for 250 years, and he would get seriously pissed if someone tried to tell him he was not a Southerner.

None of this is about conspiracies. Different groups have different ambitions for different historical reasons, and people plot at the same time that they are at the mercy of devloping events. The skillful adapt.

Sunnyvale Renter: You are a true American. You are on the money. Thank you for your support of the cause. You may even be ready to hear my end-game scenarios ;)

--Deo Vindice

44   KurtS   2005 Dec 29, 10:51am  

BTW, won’t border jumpers make good target practice for green troops and nat’l guardsmen? Sounds like an opportunity to me.

Too easy to point the finger at "illegals" imo. Fact is, they support much of California's agricultural industry. How many Californians would want those jobs? Give them work passes and legalize these necessary labor migrations. Personally, I'm sick of the tendency to criminalize every social problem.

45   HARM   2005 Dec 29, 10:59am  

DeoVindice,

Having respect for one's ancestors and history is fine, but calling Southern session “The noble cause” (which was after all, to preserve a system based on the not-so-noble institution of slavery) and then labelling Northen efforts to preserve the union (and nation) "New England tyranny"? *Ahem* I'm sure Lincoln wasn't a saint, but calling him a dictator or murderer is flat out absurd.

People get killed in wars --this is true regardless of who starts (or finishes) the war. That's just the nature of war and why it's so terrible. Civil wars (as the name implies) are usually the worst kind of war --large numbers of "civil"ians including women and children get killed because it's city vs. city, brother vs. brother. Lincoln and Davis were probably no more bloodthirsty than any other leader presiding over such a conflict, IMO.

46   HARM   2005 Dec 29, 11:01am  

And don't even get me started about Andersonville...

47   Peter P   2005 Dec 29, 11:01am  

Give them work passes and legalize these necessary labor migrations.

That is fine with me. I support Bush's worker program.

However, it is not okay to wink and nod. ;)

48   KurtS   2005 Dec 29, 11:03am  

There should only be LEGAL IMMIGRATION — illegal immigration should be dealt severely. I do not understand why USA grants periodic amnesty!

Certainly, I don't support an endless flow of people into the country. Give undocumented ag workers documentation so their presence can be counted and properly regulated. That said, closing the border--especially a thorough "East-German" approach--will be a very expensive and tedious affair. There must be a better way.

49   Peter P   2005 Dec 29, 11:09am  

That said, closing the border–especially a thorough “East-German” approach–will be a very expensive and tedious affair. There must be a better way.

Absolutely. We need to have a way for the needed labor to come in legal so the process and be regulated. Then we need to take away the demand for illegal workers - i.e. sending employers to jail.

50   HARM   2005 Dec 29, 11:10am  

pardon the poor spelling --meant to say "secession"

51   DeoVindice   2005 Dec 29, 11:15am  

HARM--People get killed in wars--women and children are not legitimate combatants. Nor was it legitimate to deny the South infrastructure to deliberately impoverish them after the war. Not only was the South not reconstructed after 50% of the property was destroyed by Union forces, they did not receive any development until the New Deal. Deliberating inflicting generations of suffering is wrong.

The Civil War was about Slavery? Lincoln made it pretty clear more than once that it was not. You're just using the tactic of blaming the rape victim. Certainly, waging war on women and children was not to free the slaves.

What do you call a man who uses force to impose his rule on a people who deomcratically elected their own government? Dictator.

Were are founding fathers wrong when they decalred independence? Why would their children and grandchildren be wrong in doing the same?

And please no bullshit about George Bush and Iraq------

52   HARM   2005 Dec 29, 11:16am  

I don’t see the South seceding so much in the future as, a good number of people, hopefully the majority in the present USA, deciding the statist PC master-planned internationalist regime we live under now isn’t for them.

Is it my imagination or are we getting way OT and close to paranoid Illimunati/ZOG/One-World Government conspiracies here? Besides, if the current government is a "statist PC master-planned internationalist regime", then wouldn't this apply to the dominant neo-conservative majority controlling Congress, the Executive and Judicial branches?

53   DeoVindice   2005 Dec 29, 11:19am  

Yo hablo espanol. Viva Las Vegas! (Mejor, Muere las Vegas!)

BTW, Is anyone starting to get my point that we live in interesting times? If you watch the news or follow elections, its almost like a low-grade civil war, its so polarized. Has that ever happended before? Hmmmmm.

Did you know that nationalism is like the Taoist uncarved block? Oh shit, here come the voices.......must....get......away... from... keyboard........

54   HARM   2005 Dec 29, 11:30am  

DeoVindice,

As far as the treatment of the South after the Civil War goes, all I have to say is compare the South's fate to the fate of people in other civil wars (French Reign of Terror, Red Army/Stalinist purges, Khmer Rouge, Rwandan genocide, etc.). They could have been treated worse --a LOT worse.

Anyhow, we're getting WAY off topic. This is probably a discussion best left to a Civil War themed blog.

55   HARM   2005 Dec 29, 12:49pm  

TWIT,

I'm far from being an authority on the Civil War, so I'll leave it to the histrians to debate the cause or causes. Even so, I must ask one question: if it was fought over "state's rights", exactly what "right" was being contested? Could it have been the right to continue the institution of slavery? If slavery had nothing to do with it, then why secede in the first place?

Carpetbagging/Reconstruction was not the North's finest hour, true. Even so, it could have been much, much worse. There were some Union Congressmen calling for the summary execution of Confederate officers and outright annexation of Southern lands as 'conquered provinces'. Fortunately, they didn't prevail, and the South has recovered beautifully.

56   HARM   2005 Dec 29, 12:50pm  

histOrians, dammit --must use spellcheck!

57   HARM   2005 Dec 29, 12:53pm  

Reginald,

Sorry about the tangent --you're absolutely right.

58   DeoVindice   2005 Dec 29, 2:47pm  

Testing

59   DeoVindice   2005 Dec 29, 2:55pm  

I think I out did myslef. Is there some kind of length limit, or what? I'll try to break up, so that I can set this board straight with the TRUTH!

60   DeoVindice   2005 Dec 29, 2:59pm  

Reginald: This is relevant to the housing discussion for a number of reasons:

1.Economic historians leverage knowledge of the past to understand current macro-economic events. The HB is certainly driven in part by international trade. For example, Chinese and greater asian mercantilsm drives the credit bubbles causing greenspan's conundrum. US industrialization leading the civil is the model that all national industrialization programs have followed. The Chinese approach has striking differences, actually. But they started from an understanding of the US experience and modified it from there.

2 Much like the cycle creating hurricanes in the gulf for the next ten years, there are economic/political cycles that last 150 years. Economic cycles and cycles of Nationalistic tension run in paralell. Today's polarized political environment can unly be understood in the context of the previous cycle that got us here. Also, you can't understand the motivation of the Red states without understanding their view of US history.

3. Many people have asked what to do with their money while they are bubble sitting. They are going to have to worry about inflation, currency value, and the stability of the US financial system. Rmember, the US dollar is a faith based currency; It isn't worth the paper that it is printed on. Politics and stability determine the value of the dollar.

4. The rise of red state political/economic power is key to understanding the future. Also, the political implications of increased housing stock are significant. The houses will still be there.

In particular, the blue states have built much affordable housing for the red states for free. The red states will use that advantage to steal jobs and educated workers from blue states. That will go into a feedback loop that will crush the economies of the Blue states, which is BAD FOR HOUSING PRICES.

61   HARM   2005 Dec 29, 3:27pm  

DeoVindice,

I can't argue about the international contribution to the housing bubble --specifically that the huge quantities of bonds and MBS paper purchased by our asian "friends" keeping long rates low, despite Mr. Greenspan's recent rate hikes. Of course, it was AG's original rate cuts and the GSEs that really got the ball rolling in the first place. We can't blame China for that.

As far as viewing the housing bubble as something deliberately created by "Red" states as a way to even the score over the Civil War or Culture War, etc., I'm less than convinced. Housing stock has definitely increased in so-called "Red" states, but they have also increased dramatically in "Blue" states. Plus, there's no evidence that this asset bubble (or any previous bubble) is anything more than the unintended consequence of greed, easy credit and poor government policy.

Let's also keep in mind that all states have a mix of conservative, liberal & moderate voters, and even the "reddest" or "bluest" states have a significant percentage of "other" voters. I tend to think that the whole Red/Blue state thing oversimplifies and overstates the actual degree of difference.

If some red states use the advantage to steal jobs and educated workers from blue states, I say more power to 'em. Heck, I may even join 'em. This would accelerate the unwinding of this bubble, which in my mind is a good thing for families and responsible savers.

62   Peter P   2005 Dec 29, 3:27pm  

I’ve been following this listing on craiglist. The price has been reduced twice (that I know of) and now they’re listing it as a lease option.

Lease for $2100? Who is going to rent that? It does not even have graniteel, although it does have wood floor.

63   DeoVindice   2005 Dec 29, 3:29pm  

I give up. My shit ain't going through........

Good night!

64   Peter P   2005 Dec 29, 3:30pm  

we have TODAY (hurry, these offers will expire TONIGHT) :

$458,000.00 at a 3.27,% fixed-rate
$389,000.00 at a 3.68,% variable-rate
$478,000.00 at a 3.99,% interest-only
$288,000.00 at a 3.10,% fixed-rate
$147,000.00 at a 3.85,% variable-rate

Clearly introduction rates. Why would anyone lend to a sheep at 3.27% when they can lend to the government at 4.3%?

65   Peter P   2005 Dec 29, 3:31pm  

I give up. My shit ain’t going through……..

Try putting it on a website and post a link. That should work if you shrink the url with tinyurl.

66   Peter P   2005 Dec 29, 3:35pm  

Plus, who the hell would lease option anything in a declining market, granishcmeel or not? That pilgrim would love to lock in todays price on that bitch and start collecting rent.

Lease options are complex arrangements. I bet most people do not understand options when they enter into such agreements. Many will face reality. :-P

67   Peter P   2005 Dec 29, 3:37pm  

Welcome back, Mr. Up. How is the weather down there? Have you seen surfer-x lately? :)

68   Peter P   2005 Dec 29, 3:39pm  

And many will get their faces ripped off by it as well.

Faceless reality? :)

69   DinOR   2005 Dec 30, 3:07am  

PolishKnight,

God love you good sir!

Your comments are very much at the core of this issue. We took the low road every step of the way. Should we,

Stimulate the economy through investment in cap. ex. to assure our leadership role in the global economy? (High Road) or

Spend our weekends at Home Despot (TM) mimicking what we say during weeknights on Trading Spaces? (low road)

Should we,

Confront our economic and tax policies? (High Road) or

Shop for a ridiculously priced RV? (low road)

I won't beat it to death but you get the idea! Whenever we've been confronted with chioces over the last several years we've plunged headlong towards the low road. Now that our very currency is in peril we're out of low roads to take. Bulls like to point out that the FED could lower rates if their precious bubble deflates too quickly and I suppose that might be an option as long as you don't mind paying $5.75 for a gallon of gas!

70   DeoVindice   2005 Dec 30, 3:12am  

Hey, you guys ever hear the term "7 sigma events"? It's what I've been going on about. It says that weird shit happens. I am convinced that we are going to see some things that are years in the making, and it will catch most people off guard. I think that debating whether or not there is a housing bubble is now a moot point. I also enjoy the Schadenfreude of hearing about greedy homebuyers getting their due will partially mitigate the total collapse of the global financial system.

I think in the end, people are going to properly forecast the collapse of this bubble, because they won't have the guts to make dire enough predictions.

71   DeoVindice   2005 Dec 30, 3:16am  

Anyone ever have trouble posting with the copy paste method from word? Am I doing something wrong? The world needs to see my masterwork.......and it's never too early to start looking at the end game.

People, please consider the purchase of some firearms. BTW, San Francisco does not have the power to suspend the second amendment. I'm waiting for some patriot who lives in SF to go after those fascists.

72   Peter P   2005 Dec 30, 3:24am  

Hey, you guys ever hear the term “7 sigma events”?

I was predicting a 10-sigma event for October but it did not happen. :(

73   Peter P   2005 Dec 30, 3:27am  

Perhaps a tsunami on the west coast?

One created by eco-terrorists to show that "global warming" is real? :)

74   Peter P   2005 Dec 30, 3:36am  

RE: yield-curve inversion

I remember that when the yield-curve was last inverted in 2000, so many people were discussing why it would not matter.

75   Peter P   2005 Dec 30, 3:50am  

From Ben's blog:

"Although house prices are down about 10 percent from July’s peak, MAR President David Wluka isn’t alarmed. 'This is not a harbinger of anything I see other than a return to normalcy,' he said."

I also remember hearing "a return to normalcy" in year 2000. :)

I guess a crash is a normal event.

76   Peter P   2005 Dec 30, 6:19am  

Its interesting that George Bush seemed to really hold the Torch for Home Ownership- I think I heard him 2-3 times talking about how great times were and referring to how many % of americans were proud home-owners. He was really doing a Sales Pithc for people to buy homes.

Homeownership is a good thing. However, entry point is very important. I doubt many people would prefer to be renters regardless of market conditions.

77   Peter P   2005 Dec 30, 8:48am  

The Term Ownership doesn’t really exist… Never Really has..
It really just different Level Of Control..

It is also a way to manipulate emoticons.

78   Peter P   2005 Dec 30, 8:49am  

emoticons -> emotions :)

79   Peter P   2005 Dec 30, 9:33am  

emoticons -> emotions ~No Big Deal its Called Fingers one finger typing faster than the other.. or hitting the wrong key- I’m plagued with it~!!

Or "fat-finger risk"?

http://tinyurl.com/c42yq

It can cost hundreds of millions. :)

80   Peter P   2005 Dec 30, 9:39am  

I Wouldn’t be the one to write the book I would have to get someone to write it for me. My talent doesn’t apply toward writing.

Jamie or SQT may be able to help.

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