patrick.net

When gold hit $900 back in 1979, it was tracking the real inflation in the economy; nowdays the inflation numbers are essentially made up. In most things I think we've seen > 200% inflation over the last 20 years (housing, education, food, medical - anything you really need, not bullshit electronics).

After Volker took the US economy out to the woodshed in the early 1980's and shot it twice dead with >15% interest rates, gold dropped back to around $400 and stayed that way until the late 1990's, when the US nominally ran a surplus (mostly by legerdemain by "unifying" the budget - before then, the SS trust fund was kept separate from the Federal budget).

If the past is a guide, then wherever gold ends up, we might expect a 50% retracement to a lower, but stable value. This will only occur if a major deflationary event occurs, such as turning off the spigot of $trillions in deficit spending every year.

Silver at $99 today. What is driving the 220% increase in silver prices over the last 12 months ?

Chicoms are hoarding and stockpiling since solar panels and Tomahawk cruise missiles use a lot of silver ?

Commodities are very volatile.

Just look at natural gas prices over the last week. We saw an increase of 60-75% in ONE WEEK.

You can make a lot of money at market peaks, but watch that fucking timing.

stereotomy says

After Volker took the US economy out to the woodshed in the early 1980's

There is no rampant inflation, like the trade, auto and teamster unions causing massive wage inflation, and no OPEC embargo.

Eggs, gasoline, townhome rental prices, etc are all notably down in Panama City Beach.

As of January 23, 2026, the current Truflation US CPI inflation rate is 1.21%.

The Federal Reserve should just keep the Fed Funds rate around 3.75%.

And the Federal Reserve is buying about $50 billion a month in US Treasuries now since QT is over and it has not restarted QE; the purchases are replacing matured Treasuries to keep the balance sheet around $6 trillion.

stereotomy says

When gold hit $900 back in 1979,

Didn't hit $900. See below.

B.A.C.A.H. says

The peak price during my senior year of high school on January 21, 1980 was $850 per ounce.or 142 hours of median labor.

What I left off the earlier post was this calculation. Assuming the 1.3% decline in purchasing power of American wages since 1967, what costed 142 hours of median labor in January of 1980 would be expected to cost about 260 hours of median labor in January 2026. This would correspond to a gold price of about $7000 per ounce to match the January 1980 mania.

We'll find out

I wonder if Iwog "backed up the truck" when silver was less than $20 per ounce.

At a silver spot price of $100 per troy ounce, the melt value of one silver dollar is 0.7734 × $100 = $77.34

That dollar coin used to be one dollar.