patrick.net

Weimar US?

RC2006 says

Fortwaye says

Gold skyrocketing because bad things are happening. World doesn’t think we can fix our debt problem.

100%

Its looking really bad. People dont understand how fast it can fail. The meteoric rise of these assets is nothing to cheer about.

Agreed, don’t want to live fighting for survival every day hoping kids don’t starve.

Fortwaye says

Gold skyrocketing because bad things are happening. World doesn’t think we can fix our debt problem.

Keep eye on 10 Year Treasury rate as perhaps the fiscal health like debt to GDP ratio at worse does not increase.

Also not only is Trump reducing the deficit (at least when adjusted for inflation), but the Federal Reserve continues to reduce
its asset holdings of US Treasuries and mortgage backed securities.

Fortwaye says

We are living in massive inflation. Housing is ballooned, gold too, silver too, stocks too, CRE too. Too much money chasing fixed goods.

We need like 18% interest rate to fix this mess, not gonna happen… so only future is massive inflation imo. Seeing commercial lots in middle of nowhere go for 900k… that’s stupid money scams.

I understand but annual inflation is only 2.7% based on PCE, and recall annual inflation based on CPI was around 9% in mid 2022.

I don't see annual inflation exceeding 3%.

Also the 10 Year Treasury rate is about 3.9% compared to it reaching nearly 5% in 2024, which was the highest its been since 2006. My estimate is the 10 Year Treasury rate will steady around 3.5% within the next few months.

Patrick says

True as silver and gold prices slid downward from 1980 to 2000, and they started to recover around 2010 in the wake of fiscal and monetary policies from the Great Recession.

Gold went from around $1800 in January 2021 to around $2800 in January 2025.

I pin a lot of this on Biden as far as the annual deficit growth during his administration such as around $180 billion for student loan forgiveness.

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999%E2%80%932002_sale_of_British_gold_reserves

The gold price increased at an average of 8% annually in the 25 years from 1999–2024.

Gordon Brown's government sold 395 tonnes of gold for $3.5 billion from 1999 to 2002.

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Keep an eye on gold, silver and Bitcoin (the Big Three of Alt-Investments) if the Federal Reserve balance sheet does not decrease or hold steady over next 2 years.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-fed-will-soon-end-qt-to-avoid-a-financial-plumbing-problem/ar-AA1P8TOQ

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AD says

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Keep an eye on gold, silver and Bitcoin (the Big Three of Alt-Investments) if the Federal Reserve balance sheet does not decrease or hold steady over next 2 years.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-fed-will-soon-end-qt-to-avoid-a-financial-plumbing-problem/ar-AA1P8TOQ

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Fed already has to stop QT because of bank liquidity issues. It's gonna have to increase its balance sheet, but don't expect them to call it that.

AD says

Keep an eye on gold, silver and Bitcoin (the Big Three of Alt-Investments) if the Federal Reserve balance sheet does not decrease or hold steady over next 2 years.

So far BTC has been following this pattern:



The most recent 1064 run up ended about a couple of weeks ago when BTC had that spike that I thought was a suckers rally. Then as expected it came nearly straight back down.

If the pattern holds it's downhill now overall for the next year or so.

next floor or bottom for Bitcoin may be $50,000

https://www.nytimes.com/1973/02/15/archives/price-of-gold-skyrockets-to-a-record-of-7230-an-ounce-on.html

In the 1st quarter of 2025 (Q1 2025), approximately 600 metric tonnes (nearly 20 million ounces) of gold were imported into the U.S., primarily from Europe (specifically London and Switzerland).
This massive movement was a significant market event, driven largely by U.S. banks, investors, and traders moving bullion into Comex and private vaults in New York to hedge against the potential imposition of U.S. tariffs on gold imports, which were being debated at the time.

The price of gold was about $2500 per ounce then. It's about $4000 per ounce now. The banksters had about 600 metric tonnes of the crap to sell to the American public, and the American "investors" are lapping it up.

The price of gold in 1980 hit $850 per ounce. On an inflation adjusted basis, it didn't hit that price again until September of 2025. 45 years to break even...that's what they mean by long term investors.

Yes, all of Wall Street is in on the scam to sell the gold they bought at $2500 per ounce for $4000 per ounce.

I always stand in awe of Wall Streets marketing prowess.

Gold up 50% year to date. Fed Chairman Powell cooled the runup of gold, silver and Bitcoin with his announcement that a rate cut is not guaranteed in the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The Fed Feds Rate is now 4% and it last peaked at 5.5% in 2023. I hope they maintain it at least 4% as long as CPI and PCE remain above 2.5%.

The long bond is trading 2.4% above the expected rate of inflation. It was not even this outta wack when Bernanke went on the buying spree of treasuries and MBS. Powell should be shit canned for not taking action. Not only treasury yields, but mortgage rates should be lower given inflation expectations. Put the fucker behind bars for lying to Congress about renovation expenses or such. Fuck him and his golden parachute to a cozy position at a financial institution.

Better yet, yank the Fed's ability to pay interest on reserves and let everyone know it is because of Powell that you're doing so.

Misc says

Powell should be shit canned for not taking action.

A majority vote of the Federal Open Market Committee is required to change the Federal Funds Rate and to buy or sell Federal Reserve assets (i.e., mortgage backed securities and US Treasuries). We cannot pin this only on Jerome Powell.

Yep, 92% of the employees of the Fed are registered Democrats. Same as the rest of the Federal government except for enlisted Military. DC is aligned against Republicans, but especially those outside of the establishment.

I still say shitcan those that openly oppose Trump and put them in legal peril as a warning to the others.Getting the DOJ to act against blatant criminality has been a challenge of its own.

AD says

Keep an eye on gold, silver and Bitcoin (the Big Three of Alt-Investments)

Investments? Or hedges?

Two out of three will be helpful if the fiat currency bubbles pop.

Bitcoin will never be money. It has negative intrinsic value. Without massive electrical input crypto will evaporate into the ether.

Gold and silver will survive.

AD says

"Keep an eye on gold, silver and Bitcoin (the Big Three of Alt-Investments)"

Gold and Silver, YES. Bitcoin NO. Bitcoin is nonsense.

Onvacation says

Bitcoin will never be money. It has negative intrinsic value. Without massive electrical input crypto will evaporate into the ether.

Eventually when Bitcoin reaches 21 million in circulation in 2140 then the mining ends, and yes each year it takes more time (and consequently more electricity which may economically motivate miners to use renewable energy) to mine Bitcoin.

When 2140 approaches, miners then convert to being part of an exchange and earn money only through transactional fees (as far as people selling and buying Bitcoin).

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Onvacation says

Without massive electrical input crypto will evaporate into the ether.

It's also possible for them to be technically subverted.

Bitcoin depends on people not immediately knowing what string to add to a block of transactions so that the hash of the block ends in a certain number of zeros. This deliberately makes them do a lot of computing work.

Someone might figure out a function which takes the number of zeros you need and gives you that string without that work. Or maybe quantum computing will just make the work trivial.

Misc says

Better yet, yank the Fed's ability to pay interest on reserves

Agree 100%. this just seems like the bankers all handing out money to each other...

Onvacation says

Bitcoin will never be money. It has negative intrinsic value. Without massive electrical input crypto will evaporate into the ether.

I've never understood why people value cryptocurrencies. It's fun to imagine a currency outside of government fiat, but cryptocurrencies can be created by anyone and there is no limit to how many can exist... How can anything be valuable if there is an infinite number of them available?

Fiat has just one currency per country or economic block... Though you have to trust the banks to regulate the supply...

Commodity metals are limited by the number of elements in the periodic table and the abundance of each...

Cryptocurrencies can be spawned into existence without any limitations.

AD says

Onvacation says

Bitcoin will never be money. It has negative intrinsic value. Without massive electrical input crypto will evaporate into the ether.

Eventually when Bitcoin reaches 21 million in circulation in 2140 then the mining ends, and yes each year it takes more time (and consequently more electricity which may economically motivate miners to use renewable energy) to mine Bitcoin.

When 2140 approaches, miners then convert to being part of an exchange and earn money only through transactional fees (as far as people selling and buying Bitcoin).

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No one here plans to live that long afaik.

I'll be the broken record - first bitcoin and now AI are vast money sinks that divert money from purchasing real or productive assets; for the former it is gold and other precious commodities, for the latter, it is productive industries that serve humanity, like energy, construction, etc.

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

No one here plans to live that long afaik.

Don't have to. Every 4-year halving cycle, the block reward chops in half. If the price rise doesn't keep up, half the miners go out out of business each cycle, and the whole PoW security thing falls apart. Depends what the price does, but the whole thing can come crashing down in 4-8 years

stereotomy says

I'll be the broken record - first bitcoin and now AI are vast money sinks that divert money from purchasing real or productive assets; for the former it is gold and other precious commodities, for the latter, it is productive industries that serve humanity, like energy, construction, etc.

I think AI will eventually pay useful dividends to humanity... Eventually... It doesn't have much benefit yet, but I think it will. Whether the payback is enough recoup our investment before it exterminates us in another question...

Bitcoin, yeah, that's sort of just computer masterbation with no benefit to humanity... The energy consumed by it is not a good investment for humanity... That's just waste.

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

If the pattern holds it's downhill now overall for the next year or so.

Did i call it or what l?

114,119 to 84,027, so far!

Context in Global Rankings
• United States: 8,133 tonnes (22% of global reserves).
• Germany: ~3,352 tonnes.
• Italy & France: ~2,400–2,500 tonnes each.
• China: Officially ~2,304 tonnes, but possibly closer to 3,000–4,000 tonnes if hidden reserves are included. My estimate is China actually owns 5K tonnes and USA owns 9K tonnes.

DeficitHawk says

Whether the payback is enough recoup our investment before it exterminates us in another question...

The price of silver is once again at an all time high. It is currently at $55.55. it was at $55.71 earlier today. It's previous all time high was back in October with a price of $54.50.

The previous two times it set record highs were in 1979 and 2011. Those times it spiked up and then went back down pretty quickly. It seems to be holding above $50 an ounce.

I have a jar with a couple hundred dollars worth of old "junk" (pre 1965 90% silver) coins that I had planned on cashing in when silver peaked over $50 an ounce. Here we are and I am not sure if I should cash in. If I took the cash (+/- $10K) what would I do with it?

Onvacation says

I have a jar with a couple hundred dollars worth of old "junk" (pre 1965 90% silver) coins that I had planned on cashing in when silver peaked over $50 an ounce. Here we are and I am not sure if I should cash in. If I took the cash (+/- $10K) what would I do with it?

Role the dice on this one. It is crazy that its holding at such a high amount. The two previous times I think were from market manipulation, this one people are buying it all up and we have a debt crisis. Even gold it at all time high.

Onvacation says

If I took the cash (+/- $10K) what would I do with it?

Invest it in your sailboat? Wait for it to crash and replace with silver eagles? HODL?

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

Invest it in your sailboat?

Sailboats aren't investments.

If I had invested all of the money I put into sailing over the last 4 decades I would be a decamillionaire.

Onvacation says

Sailboats aren't investments.

Unless they help you save money like you live aboard it as a primary residence, or you save money using it for a vacation versus staying at an expensive resort.

Or you get your 6-pack captains license and make money using it as a charter boat.